JGMcD2

Fair enough, I didn’t remember the Schoen connection. Morgan didn’t play for McDermott… he was a scouting intern with Seattle when McDermott was still with Philadelphia… but Morgan was a player at the same time Beane was a personnel assistant. I’m not sure how much of a relationship there was, but you can draw a connection. Appreciate you fact checking me.

They didn’t wait until pick 7 just because… it takes another party to agree to a trade. They had an agreement in place with Denver (12, 22 and 2nd round) to move up that was contingent on Bradley Chubb not being there. Elway backed out when Chubb was there. That was the highest they could possibly get outside of 3 or 6 and the Colts didn’t want to move from 3 to 12… that’s why they made the deal with the Jets in the first place. Ballard turned in the Nelson pick without even listening to offers. Those are facts above, this is speculation here, if they were willing to give up 12, 22 and a 2nd in that draft to move up to 5…. why wouldn’t they be willing to give up more to go higher? That’s already a significant offer. Only the Colts moved out of the top 5… everyone else stood pat… what else can you do at that point? Teams weren’t willing to move. There were also 3 QBs left at that point - many thought Rosen was the best.

Here’s some analogies…. Bengals have a senior defensive assistant (Mark Duffner). Chiefs have a senior offensive assistant (Matt Nagy). 49ers have an assistant head coach (Anthony Lynn) and Game Management Specialist (August Mangin). Positions like this aren’t uncommon. Let that sink in.

The answer is yes… as seen below…

I mean I’ll do it… I just need to know how you’d define it. I feel like All-Pro is pretty darn close to capturing everyone you’d select.

How am I playing word games? I’m trying to nail down a definition here because you didn’t like the All-Pro barometer. Are you willing to go through 2018 - 2022 and hand select the high-ceiling premium players drafted?

You made the comment they have a tough time going out of their comfort zone/circle with the Carolina connection. You really want me to do this? The Bills have 26 members listed under their coaching staff (not including McDermott)… Al Holcomb will be #27. These are the guys who crossed over in Carolina (6): Ken Dorsey Bobby Babich Mike Shula Eric Washington Matt Worswick Al Holcomb These are the guys who don’t have any Carolina connection (21): Leslie Frazier Matthew Smiley Rob Boras Joe Brady John Butler Joe Danna Chad Hall Aaron Kromer Jaylon Finner Austin Gund Cory Harkey Marc Lubick Kyle Shurmur Kelly Skipper Ryan Wendell Marcus West Eric Ciano Will Greenberg Hal Luther Nick Lacy Jason Oszvart Looking at the front office quick… they have 9 people with VP, Director or Assistant Director titles in football operations. No Carolina connection (9): Jim Overdorf Kevin Meganck Brian Gaine Terrance Gray Malik Boyd Matt Bazirgan Lake Dawson Chris Marrow Curtus Rukavina So what? 36 people across coaching and football operations and 6 of them have ties to Carolina. Could also point to people like Dan Morgan (SEA), Joe Schoen (NYG) and Brian Daboll (NYG) as guys outside their comfort zone who were brought in to fill roles on the staff. There’s also David Culley, Bobby Johnson, Shea Tierney, Bob Babich, Jim Salgado, Danny Crossman and Heath Farwell.

Still not sure how you’re determining whether or not you’d sign a player to a second contact at market? I’d say AJ Brown is a player that should get a second contract at market but the Titans felt otherwise. Roquan Smith falls into the same category. What about JC Jackson? How about Jalen Ramsey? Maybe Joe Thuney or Brandon Scherff?

High-ceiling premium player is entirely different than a core player… And how do you measure a core player? How do you determine if they’re a high ceiling premium player?

Where was this comment when they fired a coach who had been on staff since 2017 and replaced him with Joe Danna who has no connection to McBeane? 😂

Well what's the measuring stick then Coach... you didn't give one.

Since Beane took over drafting in 2018: 61 players who have entered league have been named to at least one All-Pro team Remove Special Teams players from that group then the number drops to 43 players named to at least one All-Pro team Account for only premium positions (QB, WR, T, DE, CB) and the numbers drops to 22 players named to at least one All-Pro team QB - 3 WR - 7 T - 3 DE - 3 CB - 6 3 teams have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018 Atlanta - Calvin Ridley (2018) and AJ Terrell (2021) Dallas - Micah Parsons (2021), Trevon Diggs (2020) and CeeDee Lamb (2020) San Francisco - Deebo Samuel (2019) and Nick Bosa (2019) 2 GMs have drafted multiple All-Pro players at premium positions since 2018 Dallas - Jerry Jones (Will McClay) San Francisco - John Lynch Thomas Dimitroff drafted Calvin Ridley and Terry Fontenot drafted AJ Terrell Based on the Bills draft position from 2018 - 2022 Brandon Beane had the opportunity to select the following players without sacrificing acquiring another All-Pro Player at a premium position: Josh Allen (HE DID!) DK Metcalf (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford) Calvin Ridley (Over Tremaine Edmunds) - Suspended from NFL Jaire Alexander (Over Tremaine Edmunds) Deebo Samuel (Over Ed Oliver) Maxx Crosby (Over Ed Oliver, Cody Ford, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox) J.C. Jackson (Entire 2018 Draft excluding Josh Allen) A.J. Brown (Over Ed Oliver and Cody Ford) - Traded away before becoming an All-Pro w/ Tennessee Let's not pretend like these premium players grow on trees and are easy to identify. 2/3 of them were 1st round picks that we didn't even have a chance to acquire, and the group listed above had an ADP of the 50th pick... meaning everyone passed on them at least once... including other top tier GMs.

Publicly available... are you shelling out $200 for me to get a PFF subscription? Weren't you also complaining about All-Pro not being factored in... must have conveniently glossed over the Pro-Bowl and All-Pro multiplier used in AV.

I didn't create DrAV... it's listed on PFR. I'm finding the value a team is extracting compared to their peer in a given draft. Not comparing across drafts... it's in comparison to the available talent pool in a given draft. Again, if you have a better publicly available stat let me know. Be sure to let publications like the Washington Post and The Athletic know too...

Ok but I'm not using weighted AV? I'm using DrAV...

Highest concentration of them is in the top 10. You're lucky if you find one after that in RD1... you're REALLY lucky if you find one after RD1.

Known bad value according to whom? What value should be used to measure instead?

Well you just proved that you didn’t read how this was done… I’m not going to explain it all over again just for you. If you’d like to go back and understand how it was done you’re more than welcome to. At that point I’ll be more than willing to hear your criticism. FWIW the Bills are actually penalized for Wyatt Teller because he didn't have that success with them... they received a negative point value for Teller. Ed Oliver received a positive score albeit nowhere close to 29... it was around 5 or 6 points.

Except it’s based on something that measures a football player’s performance and we are talking about football players and their performance in the context of the draft…. It’s far more reliable than your anecdote of salaries and colors or your personal opinion of “2 great players and a handful of good ones.” Also, this isn’t intended to be a “predictor” of anything… it’s an evaluation of the past. Nobody implied this was perfect. Why don’t you tell me how you’d go about objectively measuring past draft success?

If they weren’t very good what does it say about the other teams that are graded on the same scale?

And this was born out of statements exactly like this… other teams aren’t doing much better or better at all. They were very good 17-19 and middle of the pack 20-22. What’s wrong about that?

Are you saying Douglas has drafted well outside of this year? Because that’s just not true.

Elam is TBD. Showed signs of being a good/great pick - we knew it was going to be an adjustment. Rousseau was actually a REALLY good value for where they picked. They can't really control much else. Only way the Bills would have gotten a significantly better player was if they picked in the top 12 picks that year. Oliver was over-drafted but isn't a bad player - not awful value but not great either. Edmunds is better than OK. Not going to turn this into a Tremaine Edmunds thread. Allen was a home run. I'd have to look, but I'd argue RD1 has been better than OK when compared to the rest of the league.

Joe Burrow and Joe Burrow's torn ACL were the best things that could have happened to CIN. They've been not so good otherwise. You have Pratt, Bates and Hubbard they've found but 2/3 need to get paid this offseason. Once Burrow, Higgins and Chase all get paid in the next 1-2 years I think they're in much worse shape than we are. This isn't even taking into account Eli Apple, Von Bell, Logan Wilson, DJ Reader, Jonah Williams, Hayden Hurst and Tyler Boyd. Even Perine and Mixon.

I had another analysis (somewhere can't find it right now) breaking down the last 4 drafts by number of Pro Bowl players drafted... essentially because of a dumb tweet saying the Bills hadn't drafted a Pro Bowler since 2018, which meant to internet GMs they're bad at drafting. Only 5 teams had 3 or more in the last 4 drafts (DAL, TB, LVR, PHI, SF) Over half the league had 1 or less Less than 5% of all draft picks have been Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts (48/1030) Of those 48 players selected the Bills had the opportunity to select less than 50% of them. 52% of Pro Bowlers in the last 4 drafts were selected in RD1 and the average pick they were selected was #10 overall The Bills average selection in the last 4 drafts has been #29 overall It's REALLY difficult to find those standout guys - especially where we've been drafting.