DCOrange

Sure but you could say that about literally any prospect besides maybe Quinnen Williams. If Hockenson is only a decent starter, then by your standards, he’s a colossal waste. If a pass rusher turns into a 3rd down specialist, he’s a colossal waste. If an offensive linemen turns into a swing tackle, he’s a colossal waste. Drafting a guy whose range, imo, is between a solid starter and an elite WR is about as high floor and high ceiling of a prospect you’ll find.

To be fair regarding Harmon, that drop % is based on deep balls, in which the sample size is pretty small. We're talking about 13 total receptions on deep balls, so adding or subtracting one more drop is like a 7-8% swing in either direction. His drop rate in general is 4.7%, which is actually pretty good.

I expect that Beane agrees with you and will trade up somewhere to consolidate picks a bit. I personally feel the opposite. There’s so much uncertainty in the draft that I’d rather just accumulate more picks to have more chances at success. But yeah, I fully expect Beane to trade up once or twice in this draft. Or if he doesn’t, I expect him to trade picks in this year’s draft for future picks.

I think at worst he’s a very good deep ball guy, which makes him a starting caliber player, especially with Allen. To me, that’s a higher floor than most of the rest of this class.

I personally view Henderson as the #2 or possibly #1 RB prospect in the draft. I love him and if he’s there in the 3rd, it’s a no brainer IMO. I think he’d be an acceptable choice at 40 or possibly a trade down from there if we’re lucky.

Last year, I provided a lot of data regarding the QB class given the obvious need that Buffalo had there. This year, I've continued to do some scouting of the QBs for historical purposes, but have focused more time and effort on the RBs and WRs. I put together a FanPost over on Rumblings to kinda break things down. I did not provide my own conclusions in the OP, instead letting people draw their own conclusions rather than potentially influencing people's opinions with my own, but I'm happy to discuss them throughout this thread/answer any questions that people have about it. Here's the link, hope you enjoy! https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/3/19/18272847/wr-amp-rb-prospects-pff-breakdown

I'd be fine with him at 40, but I think someone else will take him before that and I don't really favor him enough to want to move up for him.

I disagree with the idea that Metcalf is a low floor guy. I actually think that, injuries aside (which you and I simply don't have the access to know about), he's a very high floor WR prospect, much like I thought Allen had a much higher floor than people realized.

Yeah, I tend to downplay Patriots acquisitions because people act like they're batting 1.000 but I really do think Harris is going to be a good player for them.

Based on the way it’s playing out, I wouldn’t be surprised if he signs somewhere for a little over $5 mil

It’s amazing how often these fake tweets get people

Fales is a free agent for now at least. Their QBs are Rudock and Luke Falk.

Wouldn't be shocked if Miami picks up Bortles. But as far as the draft goes, Miami and Washington have always stood out as the most desperate to move up for a QB IMO.

From the sound of Clayborn's statement, it reads like he requested to be relased, no?

It's not as if the Browns are surprised by this suspension. If they were interested in moving Duke, this would have zero impact on it.

NFL already announced that Hunt accepted the suspension.

He'll be like the 2nd heaviest player in the NBA the moment he's drafted. He'll almost certainly be able to bully people. He has 40-50 lbs on Giannis and Giannis is able to bully people inside. The 6'7" height won't really matter; if anything it just makes him even more dense and his leaping ability negates any height advantage a defender might have.

Completely different builds, but in terms of his playstyle, see Giannis Antetokounmpo as far as what Zion will model his game after, and setting aside my Bucks fandom, his jumpshot is probably better than Giannis'. Anyone big enough to handle Zion's strength; he'll be able to drive past from the perimeter. Anyone that can keep up with him will be bullied. Sag off on him and that'll just allow him to get his momentum going towards the hoop in which case you're at his mercy. Play up tight on him and he'll just blow by. Really talented ball-handler and passer for someone his size too not to mention the value he'll bring in terms of rebounding and defending.

I think a trade down from 9 is still very much in play, but having said that, I think we'll almost certainly trade up later on; there's no way we draft 10 players IMO so they'll either consolidate picks or trade some of them for future picks.

Almost nobody in the NBA can match up with him either IMO. I'm not sure anyone in the NBA right now has his combination of size and athleticism and he's a really skilled dude too. He's easily among the 3-5 best prospects to come out since LeBron IMO and might be the best.

Don't think I'll ever have a mock draft play out this well for me again on The Draft Network: 9. Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama - #1 player in the draft IMO 40. Dalton Risner, OG/OT, Kansas State - One of, if not the highest graded O-Lineman per PFF and seems like the type of guy Buffalo loves 74. Dru Samia, OG, Oklahoma - Big part of the best O-Line in the country, Buffalo has scouted multiple OU games this season, met with him at the combine, and worked with him at his Pro Day 112. Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis - IMO the #2 RB in the class 131. Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford - Big TE with good hands, didn't test well at the combine but looks better on tape IMO 147. Stanley Morgan Jr., WR, Nebraska - I have him pegged around the #5 WR in the class 158. Derrick Baity, CB, Kentucky - Think his skillset is perfect for this defense 181. Ben Burr-Kirven, LB, Washington - A depth pick here, undersized but solid LB 225. Tyre Brady, WR, Marshall - Like Stanley Morgan, I have him pegged in my top 5 WRs in this draft class, though he ran a slow 40 at his Pro Day unfortunately 228. Will Harris, S, Boston College - Been one of the leaders of one of the best secondaries in the country; good awareness and good athleticism but lacks playmaking skills.

Howard was literally like the #1 or #2 TE in the league according to PFF. He just happened to get hurt but he was playing great outside of the injury.

Just being realistic, the Bills will almost certainly keep 5 or 6 WRs on the roster with Roberts included. 3 of those spots are now spoken for via our free agent signings. I personally think Foster's spot should be relatively safe while Zay's should not be safe, but it seems that people expect both of them to be on the roster. That gets us to 5 without including Duke, McKenzie, or any rookies. My main point isn't even about specifically a WR, it's about spending a roster spot on a guy that just doesn't make much of an impact. No kick returner in today's NFL really makes a significant impact, Roberts included. The vast majority of kicks and punts are not returned at all. Even with Roberts in New York, 68% of the Jets punts were touchbacks or fair catches. We're talking about roughly 1 or 2 punt returns per game for Roberts. Because of how few opportunities a punt returner gets over the course of a season, the difference between the #1 punt returner (Roberts last year) and a league average punt returner is basically one single return that happens to be a big play. Roberts himself has jumped back and forth from elite to below average over the past 5 years. I just don't think it makes logical sense to spend a roster spot essentially on one big play in a season that he may or may not even make.

Kick returns might literally be legislated out of the game within the next year or two and even without that happening, the % of touchbacks and kick returns that only get to the 25 anyways makes kick returners mostly negligible. As for punt returns, both the Jets and Bills had roughly 20-25 punt returns last year. I just don't think it's worth a roster spot or money for someone that will rarely ever do anything and the idea of it costing us a shot at a legitimate starting WR in the draft just makes me sad.

Typing from my phone so not gonna be able to provide the links and everything, but per Football Outsiders, Roberts incredible season added 22 points above the average with his kick and punt returns. Buffalo was at -9 points so if Roberts plays at his peak level again (which I think is highly unlikely), you’re talking about roughly a 30 point increase or a little less than 2 points per game. It’s just not a big difference maker. I’d rather use that roster spot to carry, for example, a rookie WR in this very deep class, and have someone go out and just take a touchback on every kick. Go Syracuse!