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Everything posted by DCOrange
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If The Bills Stay @ #9, Who Is Your Guy?
DCOrange replied to H2o's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Ed Oliver and DK Metcalf are my preferred options at this point but I wouldn’t be mad at basically any of the directions they seem likely to go. Montez Sweat, Brian Burns, Jawaan Taylor, etc. it’s all fine to me. -
ASU WR K’Neal Harry is projected as a 2nd rd prospect.
DCOrange replied to Tipster19's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I don’t think his acceleration or agility are special at all; not even sure it’s average relative to NFL WRs to be honest. But I’m also just referring to getting open on routes. That’s completely different from a kickoff return or a screen pass. He “separates” in that first clip because the guy falls over. If he can run through guys in the NFL to the point that they fall over, that’s great, but that’s not really what I’m talking about when I’m talking about getting separation on his routes. But again, getting open isn’t really going to be in a highlight package anyways so it’s not that big of a deal that it’s missing from this video. I do think that’s a weakness of his in general though. He relies on making contested catches for most of his production. It’s a good skill to have, but like I said, I think guys like Arcega-Whiteside and Harmon and possibly Butler can provide that a round later. I still have Harry rated as my #3 WR so I’d be fine with taking him in the 2nd round but I’m not sure he’s available there and even if he is, I’m not sure he’s the best value play. Still a good prospect though. -
https://theathletic.com/849173/2019/03/07/teds-film-room-post-combine-top-five-big-receivers-rankings/ Pretty good read for those that have a subscription to The Athletic. If you don't, I'm happy to post some snippets on request. The author, Ted Nguyen, is a film junkie that generally focuses on the Raiders but in this case, took a look at the WR draft class. For this article, he focused on his top 5 "big" WRs, basically guys that he expects to play on the outside in the NFL. WRs that he provided scouting reports on (ranked in order from best to worst): Outside WRs: 1. Hakeem Butler - Top 10 pick 2. DK Metcalf - Top 15 pick 3. JJ Arcega-Whiteside - 2nd rounder 4. Miles Boykin - 2nd-3rd rounder 5. N'Keal Harry - 2nd-3rd rounder
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ASU WR K’Neal Harry is projected as a 2nd rd prospect.
DCOrange replied to Tipster19's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I do still like him, and granted it's highlights so it'll tend to be more about the contested catches than anything else, but he didn't really show any separation skills in this video. I don't think he's as stiff a route runner as some say, but I think his ability to get separation is a larger concern than it is for DK, who has similarly been attacked over that. I think Kelvin Harmon and JJ Arcega-Whiteside are similar prospects that can be had maybe a round later than Harry. -
Count me among those that doesn't have interest in this guy. The FA market being as weak as it is is going to make almost none of these free agent WRs worth the money. If you can sign one of them to a short-term deal, then I'm fine with it, but they're basically all going to be overpaid on an annual cost basis. My preferred option with the WRs is to let other teams blow their load early on and then swoop in after the spending spree is over and sign a couple guys to relatively cheap deals. The ones I have my eye on in this regard are: Jermaine Kearse Phillip Dorsett JJ Nelson ArDarius Stewart Randall Cobb/Cole Beasley/Jamison Crowder (I think one of these three will slip through the cracks as the other slot guys get paid)
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He was already being mocked around the top 10-15 prior to the combine, with a few people pegging him as the Bills' pick. Seems like after the combine, people don't really expect him to make it to 9, but if he does, then that's basically where people had always expected him to go. I think the main argument against drafting him (outside of the injuries which the Bills will obviously know far more about than any of us) is the fact that the WR class is so deep. Even if Metcalf is a better prospect than all the other WRs (which I think he is), you could pretty strongly argue that it's a better value play to just wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to get a WR while addressing other position/s in the first round or two. As far as production goes, he basically checked that box already. He was a significant player for Ole Miss before he had even turned 20 years old, which is generally a very good sign for a WR prospect. In his final year, he was on pace for roughly 1,275 yards and 11 TDs before he got injured. At that point, AJ Brown was projected to have like 50 more yards but "only" 8 TDs (which is still good), so they were basically neck and neck in terms of production despite the fact that as the underneath option, AJ received far more targets. Based on Metcalf's skillset, I think he could be utilized more in the NFL than he was in college, but I also think the basic framework of the Ole Miss offense (despite it being pretty rudimentary) is more or less what Buffalo could go for and would be highly valuable to have. Ole Miss basically sent Metcalf and DeMarkus Lodge deep every play while AJ worked underneath. This basically forced defenses to play two safeties deep because Metcalf and Lodge were so dominant down the field, thus opening up a ton of space for their run game and AJ's short range passes to be effective. It's not hard to picture the Bills doing the same with Robert Foster and Metcalf going deep all the time and opening things up for whoever their slot WR or TE ends up being, not to mention the run game as well as Allen's run game specifically. Metcalf has the potential to turn into the go-to guy for an offense, but in the very least, his size and athleticism opposite Foster would be a huge game changer for the offense IMO.
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Sounds like Preston Williams is absolutely bombing his Pro Day. His draft stock was already on the decline and this will not help.
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Top ten talent (Non QB) in the draft. Who ya got?
DCOrange replied to BuffAlone's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Not including the QBs, I have: Quinnen Williams Ed Oliver Nick Bosa Devin White Josh Allen DK Metcalf Rashan Gary Josh Jacobs Clelin Ferrell Christian Wilkins -
Do you have a source on this? Based on Spotrac (see below), it looks like it's starting DT money. Of course, it's possible (I haven't seen it declared otherwise yet) that the $4.5 mil is with incentives that he may or may not be likely to hit and that the real deal is lower than that, but for now, it does look like a bit of an overpay (though I don't think it matters much since it's a one-year deal). https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/cap-hit/defensive-tackle/
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The money doesn't really matter since it's only a one year deal and we have plenty of space, but glad to have him back for another year. I suspect he's the depth guy behind whatever DT we draft though.
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How can we not be all in on Metcalf now?
DCOrange replied to Hebert19's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Unfortunately we'll never know how the season would have turned out had Metcalf not gotten hurt, but having said that, if we extrapolate Metcalf's stats through 6.25 games out to the 14 that Calvin Johnson played in his final year, Metcalf was on pace for 1,275 yards and 11 TDs. Calvin put up 1,202 yards and 15 TDs in his final year. Metcalf's dominator rating (basically picture Ole Miss' total receiving yards and TDs as a pie; dominator rating is how large Metcalf's slice of the pie is) is also above average (32.1%, the 58th percentile), though it pales in comparison to Calvin's astounding 55.3% (keeping in mind that 45% is considered to be basically legendary). Metcalf's breakout age (the age in which a player first broke over 20% dominator rating) is also slightly lower than Calvin's was, which is generally a good sign (Metcalf is in the 72nd percentile there). So with that said, Metcalf is ahead of the curve in terms of how early in his career he became a productive player and was also on pace to put up a season on par with Calvin's best season at Georgia Tech before his neck injury (though they produced in totally different ways, as Metcalf was on pace to put up more yards than Calvin on 18 fewer receptions. For reference, here's Metcalf compared to some of the guys he's been compared to (David Boston and Randy Moss are unfortunately not in the database): And here's Metcalf compared to the rest of the incoming class: -
Really interesting to see him being unrestricted but I don’t at all expect Buffalo to pursue him. Could their rival Steelers entice him to fill one of their biggest needs though?
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Browns exploring trade offers for Duke Johnson
DCOrange replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Hunt is definitely a factor. With Hunt, Cleveland has two of the top 10 rated RBs from last year. I also wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland thinks they can get a receiving back at a fraction of the cost. Duke is a good one, and there's certainly value in getting a guy that you know is a good receiving back, but teams seemingly find good receiving backs on Day 3 or off the trash heap every year; I imagine the Browns simply don't want to pay their #3 RB (or #2 if Hunt gets in trouble again) like a starting RB. He's currently slated to have the 19th highest cap hit in the league next year at the RB position and looks poised to move up into the top 10 in 2020. -
Who is your top mid round targets in rounds 3 and 4?
DCOrange replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Totally forgot James Williams but he's definitely on my list as well. -
Who is your top mid round targets in rounds 3 and 4?
DCOrange replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
If you think his 40 yard dash is going to boost his stock back up, I think you're going to be disappointed. Having said that, I've been lower than most on him for the past two years now so I could just be wrong on him. I honestly think there would be better WR value picks in the 5th than him so I'm definitely not hoping for him to be a Bills pick earlier than that. -
CB Rock Ya-Sin .... a McDermott special
DCOrange replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I was thinking that he likely gets taken too early for Buffalo to really target him (I think Buffalo wants a corner on Day 3), but the wrestling background definitely gives me some pause lol. Levi Wallace was the guy I had pegged for Buffalo last year and Derrick Baity and Michael Jackson are the two that I have my eye on for Buffalo this year. -
Who is your top mid round targets in rounds 3 and 4?
DCOrange replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Better and more realistic IMO: landing him in the 5th. -
He didn't even do track and field until his senior year. He was a high school RB and no Divison 1 program showed interest really. He had an offer from an FCS school but that was basically it. He had gotten some interest from Oklahoma State, but they filled their final recruiting spot. Air Force had some interest but he didn't want to commit to the post-graduate stuff there. Track and field coach convinced him to give it a try and he went out and broke the record for the 60 meter or something like that. UMass's coach was desperate to add some speed to the team so he offered him a spot.
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Who is your top mid round targets in rounds 3 and 4?
DCOrange replied to Alphadawg7's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Some of the guys that I like after the 2nd round are: WR Stanley Morgan WR Tyre Brady WR KeeSean Johnson RB Trayveon Williams RB Matt Colburn CB Michael Jackson CB Derrick Baity OG Dru Samia OT Bobby Evans OG Sua Opeta OT Trey Pipkins DT Jerry Tillery DT Chris Slayton Andy Isabella, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Kelvin Harmon, Emanuel Hall, etc. if they happen to slide -
On the most recent episode of the Locked on Bills podcast, around 16 minutes in he starts talking about edge rushers and said that he can't divulge specific names, but he's been told that Buffalo will be taking a run at addressing the edge rusher position in "creative ways" this offseason, specifically to plan for the future at the position. He also specified that they will not pursue Clowney. I'm guessing this means they'll be making sort of an under-the-radar dart throw of a signing to see if they happen to get lucky and get a guy to breakout. Wouldn't be surprised if maybe it's one of their former Panther guys: Kony Ealy. Seems like people could make an argument that Anthony Barr would be a "creative" approach to adding an edge rusher too since he's been mostly an off-ball LB to this point.