DabillsDaBillsDaBills

I'm going with the Bills this week. Prime-time home game, Dolphins are spiralling, and Josh historically owns the Dolphins. We're 12.5 point favorites, next largest spread is only 7.5.

Bills 31 JETE 21

Going back to the AFCCG we've now failed 5 consecutive 2 point conversions. Pretty insane with Josh Allen as QB We really need to figure something out on short yardage, have to have it, type plays

You must've missed his 28 yard punt in the 4th Q.

I left the same time you did, for the same reason. My dad (getting up there in years) wanted to leave after the Henry TD made it 40-25 so that we could beat the traffic on our drive back to Rochester. I convinced him to stick out 1 more drive and to stay if the Bills scored, but then we punted with 9 minutes left in the game. Couldn't justify sticking this one out when my dad was already exhausted from the long day and it felt like we had 1% chance of winning. It's nothing short of miraculous that our DEF forced two 3 and outs and a fumble after that. We had only forced 1 punt (and no turnovers) on the Ravens first 9 drives.

We only went for 2 after the Baltimore penalty on the PAT. They're looking at expected points added by the decision to go for PAT or 2. Kicking PAT: 95% success rate * 1 point = 0.95 expected points 2 pt conversion from the 2 yard line: 40% success rate * 2 points = 0.8 expected points 2 pt conversion from the 1 yard line: 60% success rate * 2 points = 1.2 expected points You can tinker with the success rates, but that's the basic idea.

I saw this tweet earlier and decided to check out the hot dog prices at the game last night. The vendor in my section had a regular hot dog for $7, a footlong for $10, and a Buffalo footlong for $12. I'm guessing most stadiums don't offer a footlong option

The new tech doesn't tell refs where to spot the ball. All it does is once the ball is spotted it tells them if it's a first down or not

I think this is a fascinating stat, and I'm trying to think of ideas why this happened. The best I can come up with: 1) Refs have improved over time and don't favor the home team as much as they used to 2) Home games feature a lot more visiting/neutral fans than they used to

Ravens 34 Bills 21 The Ravens tend to start out very strong in week 1 under Harbaugh, whereas the Bills are more of a mixed bag under McD. Lamar and the Ravens will come out with that extra bit of motivation due to their view that Lamar was snubbed for MVP and as revenge for the playoff loss. I think our new look defense will take a few weeks to round into form.

Our offense improved when we let Davis walk for nothing. Why would we bring him back, even to the Practice Squad? He was responsible for half a dozen INTs in 2023 with lazy routes, drops, and miscommunications.

The 2020 team was remarkably healthy. I don't think we had a single starter out for the Chiefs game, although Beasley was hampered pretty badly. For OP i'll go under and over. Milano doesn't really accumulate stats, even when healthy. For his 8 year career he has 10 INTs, 3 forced fumbles, 11 fumble recoveries, and 10.5 sacks. Milano is on the wrong side of 30 years old and missed 10+ games each of the last 2 seasons due to injuries.

Brees and the Saints as well, although they didn't have quite the sustained regular season success as these other teams.

1 sack in 4 playoff games. 2x 1sts and a good starter in Clark is probably around fair value for a trade, but that contract is absurd. Garrett signed for 4 years 160 mil earlier this offseason and I think he's the better player

The whole point of this thread is looking at how we've done as a 2 seed vs a 7 seed when under the old playoff format a 2 seed would've gotten a bye. That was the list of games that wouldn't have occurred under the old format.

The 2020 Colts might be the best 7 seed to make the playoffs in this new format. 11-5 with a top 10 offense and defense. 2022 Dolphins were bad. 9-8 with a 3rd string QB and depleted O-line 2023 Steelers were mediocre. 10-7 but no TJ Watt 2024 Broncos were mediocre. 10-7 with a rookie QB

The team was pretty flat in the first KC loss, outscored 38-6 from the start of the 2nd Q until garbage time. I have to disagree with the idea that we haven't gotten lucky breaks in these games. 1st KC loss they muffed a punt that we recovered at the 3 yard line and scored a TD on the next play. Bengals loss had a couple plays where Josh was somewhere between an incomplete forward pass and losing a fumble. Refs called both an incomplete pass after reviews. Think we caught a break with the Chase TD being overturned as well. 3rd KC loss the first play of the game Diggs fumbled, but Kincaid managed to bat the ball out of bounds. After the Damar Hamlin make-a-wish fake punt KC was inches away from scoring a TD, but we forced a fumble inside the 1 yard line that went out the endzone. 4th KC loss the Chiefs dropped multiple easy INTs. Mahomes gifted us with a turnover after he fumbled a good snap. Bills fumbled 4 times and we recovered all 4 of them. If anything we've been extremely lucky with the fluky bounces in these games.

I'm not really buying the idea that the Chiefs only score exactly as many points as they need to win and then go into a conservative shell. Even if that were true at some point I don't think they'd do that ever again after blowing a 21-3 lead to the Bengals in the AFCCG. I think they're a streaky offense that tends to run hotter for longer against the Bills than anyone else in the playoffs.

He's been below average the last 2 seasons: Year FG % Ranking PAT 2020 82.4 18th 96.6 2021 87.5 13th 100 2022 87.1 12th 96 2023 82.8 24th 98 2024 82.8 21st 92.2 For rankings i'm only counting kickers with 10+ starts in that season. And he's been awful in the postseason with 78.3% FG and 91.7% PAT. Unfortunately we gave him a pretty large contract (for a kicker) after his 3rd season, only for him to regress badly in years 4 and 5. I thought he had kicked his way out of the yips with that 61 yarder vs Dolphins last year, but his pre-season performance has me worried.

I think we need to pump the brakes a little bit on that play. Getting a sack to "hold" the other team to a lead-taking long FG drive with a few minutes left in the game is NOT an all-time play. An all-time clutch play would've been forcing a turnover for a TD (like Taron Johnson). Or even just a sack to force a punt. Milano had a more important sack earlier in that game that knocked KC out of FG range and forced a punt

He's a punter not a mathematician! Seriously though whoever made that graphic should be fired

McD has had incredible regular season success with this approach, but I wonder if he SHOULD throw a chair through a window for playoff games.

No idea how Stafford made it into the top tier. There's a pretty large gap after Allen/Mahomes/Jackson/Burrow. Whatever order you want to put those guys in, they are a clear cut above the rest of the league.

It's crazy to me that people on here are giving McD so much credit for Josh progressing. McD is a head coach that thought Nathan Peterman was an NFL caliber starting QB. Multiple times. He was comfortable going into the 2018 season with a QB depth chart of: 1) Peterman 2) Allen And we're acting like McD is some kind of QB whisperer? I'd go so far to say that Allen's success was despite McD, not because of him.

My favorite stat from that game is that the Chiefs only converted one 3rd down. 99% of the time that would mean a dominant defensive game, but in our case it meant our DEF was so incredibly bad we couldn't even force 3rd downs.