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Everything posted by Richard Noggin
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Time is money, though. Trade partner has to pay for a lost year of value/potential/development. Why would a GM trade out of a current pick just to wait a year to make that same-ish pick? (I can conceive of scenarios where a given round's perceived value has been exhausted and a team might prefer to preserve the original pick's "round value" by trading instead of reaching. Especially in the first two days of the draft. The long term value of those picks is arguably more important than any immediate, inflated need.)
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After the first two picks (both of which should be HUGE contributors early on), I see some roster redundancy that would rely on injury designations, practice squad sneaks, or outright cuts at a couple positions (THREE RBs?! I like Jordan and Guerendo as back half of the draft prospects, but when you first spend #97 on Shipley, at least one of these other two just won't be on the roster). Drafting another punter is also...surprising. One of the two EDGEs is unlikely to make it. The WGR guys will enjoy a new iteration of punt-a-palooza with THREE on the roster coming out of the draft. A big part of my pushback is of course the WR picks. Tez Walker has insane athletic traits, but lacks refined skills. Was a mess at the Senior Bowl. Jackson isn't as explosive as you'd like for a little guy, and will have a very difficult path to the 53. I don't hate competition, and a bunch of these disposable picks are late on day three, but I ultimately question the value.
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Diggs cryptic comments - 2024 edition
Richard Noggin replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
Armchair a-hole analysis: he is saying a lot without actually saying much of anything. He's being characteristically honest about the uncertainty of the NFL and how people unfairly perceive him from the outside. ALSO, his voice DOES sound a little more pinchy and amped than I remember; he's still more articulate than most, but does come off a little nervy and rambly. People trying to turn any of this (including his vague tweet) into something tangible is a stretch. -
To be completely honest, I almost automatically skip past these front-loaded, trade-heavy lists of assets exchanged and picks. No offense to you. The format is less accessible than comparable screenshots. It's a shame because how evidently you enjoy exploring a multitude of draft possibilities, often bucking needs-based fan consensus. But then I have to ask: which effing simulator has Latu available at 28?! That's...interesting. Safety is nicely restocked here, and the EDGE pipeline is filled. Solid #2 RB added. LG now a competition between Edwards and strong prospect in McCormick. But the two biggest needs, WR and DT, according to most fans, are not prioritized. Tez Walker looked LOST at the Senior Bowl (despite his impressive traits), and Eboigbe is more of a 3-4 DE prospect than a 4-3 DT. Not a great fit. Smith could represent value, I guess, given his surprise med e v a l at the combine. Here's a similarly UNsatisfying draft haul that could be beneficial in the longer term. Most of these guys should be NFL contributors sooner rather than later. I'm guessing most posters will be mad about WR and DT.
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Diggs cryptic comments - 2024 edition
Richard Noggin replied to Einstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
The Venn Diagram of fans immediately upset by Diggs' cryptic social media post AND people who like to claim "facts don't care about your feelings" is closer to a circle than it should be. -
Kenny Pickett being traded to Eagles (according to Schefter)
Richard Noggin replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
Pickett strikes me as a STRONG backup QB option, for a SUPER affordable cap hit. Why is that difficult to acknowledge? Is it the draft capital lost? I can understand attacking that aspect of the deal, but the result for Philly is unquestionably a high-end backup who barely registers against the cap, at the most important position in the sport. -
I never trust a Brit's culinary judgements.
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We've seen this go the wrong way in recent years, no doubt. Lost or moved on from a bunch of drafted guys who maybe belong in the NFL. THIS YEAR, however, there is still plenty of room to roster a rookie WR, a RB, an interior OL or even an OT, and at least 1 DT, a DE, a CB, and at least 1 S. Heck even a TE and a LB could make it at the backend. Which is just about every position.
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We are set at WR. Maybe we’ll grab one in Round 6.
Richard Noggin replied to BringBackFergy's topic in The Stadium Wall
As to the bolded, the defense definitely hasn't mattered (in a good way) so far in the playoffs. Could have had just about any JAGs in there, and in the past couple playoff losses, we have. Agree wholeheartedly with the fundamental premise of your post: with a well-supported QB17, the offense can and should determine game outcomes. Defense should be an afterthought, ideally there to capitalize on leads and keep teams from scoring easily (they should be the unit tasked with playing McDermott's beloved COMPLEMENTARY football). -
I remember him flashing for the Jets that season. Had a little juice.
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Your prioritization angle here is kinda bizarre tbh. Signing Ty Johnson doesn't mean the Bills aren't also thinking about every single other position. The money he is hopefully making doesn't really register wrt the cap. So what's the problem with filling in needs with value FAs so they aren't entering the draft with multiple obvious roster holes? Or to put it another way: are there specific FAs you would prefer? Which guys could the Bills have afforded that would have helped the Bills "keep up/pass the Chiefs, Ravens, etc." and not required even more aggressive cap management moves? Important to remember that winning free agency never results in winning games. Winning the draft, however, might. Free agency is not where the best teams allocate their cap resources. Re-signing their own guys is. Maybe there is ONE piece out there that can nudge a good team over the top, but if that was us, then who?
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That was a theme in the LB room. Really maximized each player's contribution, until injuries yanked AJ Klein out of his RV and onto an NFL field. Bodes well that the LB coach, who also had success as a safeties coach, is now running the defense. Player development and maximization is the name of the game.
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Seems like some posters (^^^) get too wrapped up in one dominant "take" on the team's current direction, and aren't willing to relent or relax or see the humor in such unknowable certainty, and that really grates on the rest of the board. I have thoughts and opinions and projections as well, but I understand my own limitations, and as such try to use this site as a place to stay informed and in tune with fellow fans who aren't obsessed with their own opinions and projections. This SHOULD be fun. I guess not everyone agrees with that.
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Honestly believe this is one of the best no-trade mocks I've seen to date. Multiple serious prospects at WR, DT, and EDGE (hopefully assuring at least one strong rookie contributor), with nice additions at S, RB, OG, CB, and TE. It isn't what many Bills fans will be happy with, but I believe this haul sets the Bills up in the short and long term.
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Pretty similar to what I just landed from same site. Same two WRs at slightly different spots, and some other parallels throughout. Lots of value and lots of potential key pieces moving forward.
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Chris Jones signs with KC 5yr $95M guaranteed
Richard Noggin replied to Process's topic in The Stadium Wall
They have until Wednesday, in that case, to make it all fit? -
Chris Jones signs with KC 5yr $95M guaranteed
Richard Noggin replied to Process's topic in The Stadium Wall
With a long term extension, though, a team these days usually builds in cap SAVINGS in year one. Nothing particularly clever or surprising there. -
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Thomas WILL be gone well before 28 in almost ANY sane draft scenario. One of Mitchell and/or Worthy is potentially still on the board, and I think viable at 28 (Adonai Mitchell especially screams future #1 WR to me). Coleman's 40 time could very well push him to Day Two, although I think he's much more dynamic than that isolated test suggests. Picks 20-50 could see 7 or 8 WRs selected in a legendary run (Mitchell, Worthy, Coleman, McConkey, Pearsall, McMillan, Legette, Franklin, Polk, Baker or Cowing, Wilson, and others are all potentially in play).
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For the record, I was aware of this discrepency.
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This monster falls to 28 somehow. Check out those measurables. "Extremely dense" is right, damn. 6'3" 354lbs and runs a 4.4? Historic athleticism. Even so, tough choice with both Texas WRs available at 28. Although I imagine most Bills fans would snag Worthy, and a few less would pick Mitchell, without giving it much thought. This is how it went. Maybe my favorite total draft haul with no trades, even after losing the projected 3rd round comp pick. Serious prospects (most of them verified Bills targets) who almost all have a shot at making the roster. (Don't LOVE the Kinchens value in rd 2, but with his U Miami coach coming aboard, it feels very possible.)
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So...what are you all doing in this scenario? I'm guessing it's down to Johnny Newton or Xavier Worthy, with most Bills fans picking Worthy? How it went (pleased with it overall):