Richard Noggin

Moved back a bit, then up a bunch. Think the top 5 picks would all be immediate contributors, and the bottom five would all be solid depth at worst. The 3 WR picks was NOT intentional, or even smart, but eff it we ball.

His comment about a WR prospect needing to be smart and versatile is actually what I specifically did NOT want to hear. It could be a whole lot of nothing, of course, because they tend to value those traits at EVERY position, and it's a GM soundbite during smoke season, BUT...I've been hoping the offensive scheme moves away from the known density and complexity of Daboll's option-heavy route concepts, in favor of at least slightly simplified, more defined pre-snap plays. The E-P passing system reminds me in some ways of Sexy-Rexy's variable, complicated, check-heavy defensive playbook. IF you have experienced players who are both gifted physically AND with mental processing, then you can have an answer to almost anything your opponent does. But it requires serious preparation and communication and on-field, real-time synchronicity. Rookies (and slower processing prospects) don't often slot right into this type of system. The more the offense asked of Gabe Davis, for example, the more he struggled. Beasley, Brown, and Diggs, on the other hand, synced up with Josh consistently. I recall Emmanuel Sanders having uneven results (despite some notable successes) during his tenure. More recently, Harty had early trouble getting on the same page with his QB. McKenzie displayed similar troubles when defenses ran more complicated zone concepts.

You made me use Google on my own to look up that 2017 Saints draft. How could you. First four picks (2 on day one and 2 on day two) were all immediate, important contributors. Really made a difference. Last three picks eventually became legitimate contributors (especially for day three picks), but the best of that bunch, Trey Hendrickson, only finally did so in year four and then left in FA to continue that level of production elsewhere. 100% of picks became NFL contributors. Unusually successful haul. Interesting that many of the prospects had injury histories, and all of them overcame those concerns. Look what he did with decent NFL WRs in recent years. Imagine what he could do with a day one talent (two if you include Kincaid). KC has similarly taken their roster/cap medicine and come out the other side even more successful. Rebooting their OL, starting over at WR, and completely overhauling their secondary, didn't set them back when it mattered most. It was necessary, in fact, to keep the cap from becoming a problem. The Bills just did their own roster reset. Had to happen. Now we'll see if they can likewise get development and production out of cheaper, younger players.

Says a lot about each poster who treated it as authentic. My main reservations about the prospect are his size (do we have updated measurables, mostly height?), pocket awareness, and performance against top college competition. The dude has been living in a high visibility bubble for a long time now, so NFL pressure and his mental fortitude aren't really the variables I'm worried about. NFL fans seem to resent most athletes who circumvent convention and bend the existing systems to THEIR value...but does anyone remember the insane contracts teams used to just hand out to these guys? Williams SHOULD 100% be angling to maximize his draft placement while side-stepping all the cattle calls and commodifications inherent in the draft machinery. More guys should follow suit. (I'm glad when they don't, as a consumer.)

It's been said, but doing this, which is not super common or automatically available, requires a BIG, long term cap investment. Plus trade compensation. Trading a 1st for Diggs made sense with a young QB17 on a rookie deal. Doing it again with an elite QB17 on a big deal, with myriad cap constraints, makes much less sense. I agree insofar as Diggs isn't the main reason the Bills "should" be trying to add an awesome boundary WR prospect in this draft. Josh Allen, a presumably historic WR draft pool, and a lack of blue chip WR prospects currently in the pipeline, are the reasons why the Bills should be looking to get a guy in the first two rounds (if not the first). The Bills have invested less draft picks in the WR position than most top orgs over the last five seasons (even with a Diggs 1st and 4th)...and it's a perfect draft year to change that. Yes. Those 2020 and 2021 Bills WR groups were good enough then. But Brown, Beasley, and Davis are gone, and Diggs is not the same dude. Shakir is a nice complementary piece, Samuel is a great Z/Y addition, and we hope to see Kincaid really take off, but the Bills need another high-end talent who can threaten defenses outside. Whether Diggs is here and healthy or not.

While I'll generally agree that NFL players need to "bulk up a bit" from year one to year two, and "receiving" TEs especially usually need to improve core strength to become more consistent blockers, there is always the annoying example of KC's elite TE who at least APPEARS not to spend much time in the weight room relative to other football players. Maybe there is wisdom in eschewing NFL body building norms, with respect to injury prevention? Total outlier, of course, but compelling and frustrating nonetheless. Kincaid had a fairly significant back injury in college. I wonder if much of the olympic power lifting used to build core strength is unwise for a guy like him?

While I agree in principle with your claim that early round draft picks are best spent on high cap value positions, like QB, OL, WR, DL, and CB, I am concerned by your cap valuations in bold. Looks like only franchise QBs and uber-elite WRs and DLs are valid 1st round targets, and we can additionally sprinkle in CBs and OLs in the 2nd round. For a long time now, I've admired the way the Ravens and Packers draft. They don't seem too swayed by internal or external perceptions. They seem mostly focused on maximum value in every round, rather than popular perception of positional need, which doesn't always seem immediately strategic. But over time, arbitrarily "winning the draft" on a year-over-year basis will best position a team into a position of strength in the modern salary cap era. Especially when that team already has a franchise QB in place.

The Jets will legitimately spend their day one pick on a player who immediately makes Rodgers happy. Obviously. That could be OL, TE, or WR. Depends how the board falls. Douglas has done well to date with his (first two days) draft layups. That's not true for every GM. Ford, Settle, and Phillips meant the Bills "had a lot of solid vet DTs plus Ed in the mix?!" With only one season of sack numbers but always suspect run fits, Phillips is the only guy mentioned who was anything more than a total JAG. They actually need at least one more legit talent in the pipeline. Injuries and rotations demand it. How did the Oliver and Daquon duo do in the playoffs the last two seasons? Dudes get hurt everywhere. Stacking talent at impact positions is vital. Invest in both lines, and in offensive skill positions, once you have your franchise QB. Our amazing defensive coaches need to keep having success with the LBs and DBs Beane and Co provides them, while the Bills invest in top notch offensive targets and NFL linemen.

Chris Jones wasn't even Chris Jones in his draft year (2016). He was the 6th pick in the 2nd round. He was a total 5-tech, 3-4 DE prototype at the time. A long, strong, physically gifted DL prospect who hadn't tapped into his true potential yet. But there were signs. And I guess that's a guy who's at least "in range" at the bottom of the 1st round. Love the idea of letting a big, strong, long DL prospect GROW into his frame over the years (opposite of Epenesa's journey). Darius Robinson is a guy who, despite being 25 lbs smaller than Jones was, has that similar combination of length, strength, and potential (when adjusted for eight years later). He is the ultimate tweener, poised to be a MUCH better pro than college player. Admittedly, I tend to believe a LOT of what I see at the Senior Bowl practices.

By all means, mention them.

He doesn't really move the needle. Like a young Clowney, but injured. Similar "motors."

Is this the McDermotty draft a lot of fans fear?

The irony.

The calculus here is compelling in that not every top prospect pans out in the league, obviously. So typically MORE shots at it is better. While in your hypothetical, Thomas has the traits and production/pedigree of a blue-chipper, Keon Coleman is intriguing enough to warrant consideration with the additional value behind him. I've begun to fancy Coleman recently, alongside Mitchell and Worthy, as options at 28. It's more interesting the more I think about it.

On one hand I generally agree that this kind of distribution makes sense IF the Bills aren't eager to upgrade some of the existing position group pipelines. However, I'd like to suggest that the Bills could/should consider upgrading the talent pool at RB, WR, OL, DL, CB, and S. The roster can DEFINITELY benefit from adding two safety prospects, potentially bumping Monsieur Hamlin. The presumed starting LG is not beyond challenge, nor is Alec Anderson's hold on backup/flex IOL. Tommy Doyle and Ryan Van Demark are not necessarily unimpeachable as OT depth/prospects. And while the Bills should 100% add a #2 RB prospect, they could also replace Johnson as well (I see better ways to spend draft capital, for sure, but who knows). DT arguably NEEDS 2 guys, and DE arguably needs 1. LB to me is our best pipeline, given the youth and promise of Bernard, Williams, and Spector (and of course Milano maybe the most impactful LB in the league when healthy). Then of course there is WR.

Agree that trading UP for a WR, more than a handful of picks, is unlikely and unwise. Especially with such a deep WR pool. Has Beane ever traded BACK in the 1st, though? Feels to me especially like a sit-tight-and-let-the-draft-come-to-you kinda year. I know some fans fear a repeat of KC jumping in front of us for McDuffie, but I think BOTH teams should just chill and pluck the awesome talent that falls to them. We assume both teams want a WR early. But I could easily see KC going OL or CB in the 1st. The Bills could also look at a DT, CB, or S. Fun to consider the permutations.

I'm guessing 32/32 NFL defensive coordinators want to stop the run so effectively that opposing offenses are forced to become one-dimensional, pass-only attacks.

One more for tonight, again trading out of the 1st round. Trading every single pick, in fact, and ending up with roughly 5 top-100 prospects when initially we only had a look at 2. I don't know about the Miami OG, but otherwise these are guys who can play football at the next level. Mitchell at 36 is a dream. And I'll bet Beane really likes Kneeland, even if DE isn't a huge need in his eyes (probably isn't with 3 guys making money already).

Skipped over Coleman, Mitchell, Worthy, plus Newton and DeJean at 28 in favor of a trade-back for two 2nd rounders. Just to see. And to be honest, I really like the results. 12 dudes won't make the 53, but this draft beefs up several pipelines (WR, RB, DT, S) and adds solid depth at IOL, CB, and DE.

So then we did NOT learn a lot from the Sammy Watkins episode? I'm confused.

Reasonable.

This 3-post progression lays out the fundamental distinction between assessing offseason roster/depth chart needs versus bigger picture impact players. Those who want the Bills to draft an alpha WR NOW, no matter what, aren't hoping to replace Davis' role from last year to plug that new "hole." They're hoping to IMPROVE upon what the Bills had last year. They're hoping to take advantage of a legendary WR draft class, where even at 28, need most likely meets value at an impact position. JA17 has never had a top WR with elite traits. He's had Foster, Jones, Brown, Beasley, Diggs, Sanders, and Davis. Gotta add a blue chip boundary beast to take another step forward. Those who don't see an urgent need to upgrade at WR are satisfied with what we've seen from the Bills offense when it matters most. But how have the WRs performed in our playoff losses, minus 13 seconds? How has Diggs performed, specifically?

Armstead feels like an overpay to me, whereas with Davis I really wonder if he could thrive in a simplified scheme. Those explosive, downfield posts and nines and digs and crossers against man pressure packages were memorable. That Tampa game last year stands out as an intriguing anomaly, with Gabe being featured underneath with quick-hitting, pre-defined routes. For whatever reasons, however, Davis and Allen continuously struggled to get on the same page in their option-heavy E-P passing schemes. And Gabe also dealt with some serious yips catching the ball. Curious to see how it goes for him with Jax.

I know he's not generating a lot of mainstream buzz, due to poor 40 and limited college production...but I have a feeling Coleman could be a dude. That combine gauntlet performance, recording the top speed, might be a super interesting example of elite play speed versus bad testing speed. Many online are pointing to Puka Nacua's top gauntlet speed last year as a compelling parallel. (Coleman was a little faster ftr, and he's taller. He also ran 2nd fastest go route during drills -- but admittedly this metric is less controlled.) I've often argued against Coleman's NFL projection based on generally poor translations of his recent college contested catch rate peers like Arcega-Whiteside, Quentin Johnson, N'Keal Harry, Mims, Marshall, etc. The question then becomes: was the prospect his QB's go-to guy and just gifted at high-pointing the ball and hauling it in under duress, or was he bad at creating separation? My thinking is shifting to either Coleman or Mitchell at 28 IF they're even still available. Beane strikes me as a Worthy guy at 28 IF he's even available. That presents us with three legitimate prospects (of which at least one should still be available) to consider at 28 without sacrificing capital to move up. Does anyone think all 7 will be gone by then? Edit: turns out Coleman also returned punts?

Having fun exploring what happens if the Bills DON'T obsess about WR early and instead go BPA. This draft would upset so many Bills fans, but wow what an immediate transformation of the d-line and secondary: