Richard Noggin

Maybe it's been said already, but I don't see many/any of these guys back on 1-year deals. They're all older and more expensive and less productive than what our cap situation allows for from rotational pieces on defense. The only two guys with real value, Jones and Epenesa, would be too expensive in 2024 without multiple years to backload and spread out the cap hit. Floyd proved he can be effective when healthy, but obviously didn't stay healthy. Gutted it out for many weeks, but at reduced effectiveness. So my answer is 0 or 1 of the guys on your list will come back on a 1-year deal. Maybe Settle or Lawson come back at the minimum? Mostly I doubt it. I'd expect mostly net new players brought in via free agency, draft, and rookie free agency.

This is an enlightened perspective. You have a negative opinion of the safety we just re-signed, but you also realize if we should EVER just defer to the team's braintrust on anything, it should be with their personnel decisions at safety. Doesn't mean McBeane are definitely correct, and you're definitely wrong, but does mean some humility is in order until definitively proven otherwise. Nice work. Can't disagree much with the D-line criticisms in first paragraph, but I DO disagree with the Diggs trade criticism in second paragraph. An ultra-competitive "alpha" type at WR was exactly what Allen and the other WRs needed on this team at that time. Diggs was a perfect addition. The offense took another major step forward once he arrived. His chemistry with Allen in those first two seasons helped 17 ascend to elite status. I suspect the ups and downs that we've seen since could even be beneficial to Allen's maturity and resilience long term **rosy outlook on this last point**

Thomas at 28 feels super unrealistic these days.

Love a LOT of this draft haul. Would be happy. Now check out this one with two modest trade-backs and what I think are ELITE results at multiple positions of need (WR, DT, S, and CB):

I also sometimes use TBD as a lazy search engine. Pro tip: instead of asking an easily searchable question (as you've done here), just start a topic with a flawed premise, like "The Bills shouldn't have cut Floyd given his 2024 dead cap hit" or some such bait. That oughta reel in the corrections right quick.

Who does? I've noticed PFN, who I like to use, has Worthy suddenly right behind Mitchell at 33 overall, and Franklin slipping even further back to like 48. Kinchens, at safety, has slid way back into the 50s after being a fringe 1st round guy. They've definitely made post-combine adjustments. Which models are lagging?

Who has 22M in cap space next year? Do you mean in 2025?

Easy little 1st rd trade back results in some favorable results imho: serious WR pipeline talent plus starters at S and DT, and other solid depth. Difficult to quarrel with this innit?

So it turns out Rapp was inactive for both playoff games?! I guess I remember that now that I've reminded myself via PFR, but how does that align with this recent re-signing?? Someone help me make sense of that super incongruent timeline.

That's a pretty safe assumption, and something we saw in the works as last season progressed. Many here have agreed that Rapp's performance seemed to stabilize as he saw more reps down the stretch. Not sure yet how the stats align with this perception, but my own late season observations agree. (I was in the stadium for the last two games, especially, so can't comment meaningfully on those without doing some research. SO difficult to keep up with the minutiae in person.)

These definitions make a lot of sense; thank you for reiterating. In the case of Von Miller, they almost guarantee the LTBEs will be reached, which helps us understand why the player wouldn't be "offended" by them (and why they will automatically count against the cap)...while also hinting at the NOT unrealistic nature of Miller also potentially reaching at least SOME of those NLTBEs, given the incredibly low floor for where they could be set.

As long as he figures out how to pick up his effing head when arriving 2nd to the ball carrier moving forward, I'm happy with this. Lotta unfortunate and compromising collisions can be avoided if he stops lowering his helmet like a dummy. Mostly he'll do his own guys (and himself) a favor.

Actually funny at the end there, while also raising a question I don't have the answer to: wtf DOES constitute "likely to be reached" vs "unlikely to be reached" incentives for ANYONE, really, but especially for Von Miller coming off consecutive injury-hampered seasons??

Only way I know how to process all of today's action is to turn it into mock drafts. Really like this one. PFN already added our new 5th round pick, and definitely upgraded WR Worthy's big board value (right behind Mitchell actually). We get our X receiver, a new starting DT, starting S, really promising #2 RB in the pipeline, and some EDGE depth.

Wasn't he just a 1-year deal?

Not getting re-signed after a contract expires in the NFL is NOT the same as getting fired.

You don't really know WHAT kind of money they're actually giving him, though. We have the absolute CEILING of the deal. That can be quite misleading. Come on, man

If there was EVER a position where McBeane deserves the benefit of the doubt, it MUST be safety don't ya think??

He punishes teammates who've already made the tackle for getting there sooner.

But we don't know the deal yet. We know the ceiling of the deal, which we all should know is not exactly "the deal."

Looks like they're ignoring the "likely to earn" incentives? Those are around $5.6M if I recall? And they actually factor into this year's cap hit when designated that way...iirc If we're only $1M in the hole, that means we're actually $11M in the hole until June 1, when Tre's savings actually apply. Will be nice to regain that $10M for signing our draft class and for injury insurance and/or summer spending (think Floyd last season), but we don't actually realize those Tre White savings until a later date.

At some point in the 2nd half of round one or the first half of round two, there will be a historic-ish run on WRs that results in 10+ guys drafted in the first 40-50 picks. Teams would be silly NOT to get in on the WR depth during the first two days of the draft. (You have to admit, the receivers overall looked even better than advertised at the combine. Such a position of strength, despite coming in so many different sizes and shapes.)

100% understand this contingency, that a specific org might run out of "draftable" grades before the draft ends. Probably happens a lot. Love the suspicion that this happened last year so Beane immediately shifted to trading for late picks next year (which is now THIS year), possibly knowing that COVID eligibility extensions would mean the 2024 6th and 7th round board would contain better talent/draftable grades. More players were allowed to go back to school, so they did. And now they're declared for the draft. Was a predictable development. (Nice to have 10 picks...but wish they were a little better.)

Your system has major holes. As do all WR scouting metrics/systems. Your 2024 rankings have both Texas WRs REALLY low. I get that you're not exactly predicting picks, but evaluating the prospects...yet having Mitchell and Worthy both outside the top-10 WR prospects seems wild to me. I'm not a huge Worthy guy, but I do think Mitchell is potentially a sleeping giant as a future #1 WR in the NFL. And Worthy is probably better than I'm willing to admit, and definitely better in terms of draft value.

Appreciate you acknowledging the silliness of this value at almost every pick here...would be an amazing draft haul of course, but just no way...