corta765

So with you knowing the future will we win a SB with Josh?

Makes sense and Rapp has been beyond disappointing this year. Bishop I think is having some ups and downs but can be a quality starter in the future. The fact Beane ignored though this position and didn't bring in a legit vet to compete sucks. Kevin Byard was available in 2024 and he would have been great to have next to Bishop, the Bears have loved his play the last two years. All the years of stability and great play from Poyer/Hyde show now with how bad our backend has been.

While I am not one for excuses there is some real truth here. The stat lines for Josh against Ulbrich in all of his games are as followed: 2025: Bills lose 27-14 at ATL: 15-26 180 yds 2 TDs 2 INTs 57.7 cmpl 4 sacks 72.6 rating (42 yds rush) 2024: Bills win 23-20 at NYJ: 19-25 215 yds 2 TDs 76.% cmpl 2 sacks 127.9 rating (18 yds rush 1 TD) Bills win 40-14 NYJ: 16-27 182 yds 2 TDs 59.3% cmpl 2 sacks 104.2 rating (17 yds rush 1 TD) 2023: Bills lose 22-16 at NYJ: 29-141 236 yds 1 TD 3 INTs 70.7 cmpl % 62.7 rating (36 yds rush) (MNF football disaster) Bills win 32-6 NYJ: 20-32 275 yds 3 TDs 1 INT 62.5% cmpl 1 sacks 108.2 rating (15 yds rush) 2022: Bills lose 20-17 at NYJ: 18-34 205 yds 0 TD 2 INTs 52.9 cmpl % 46.8 rating (86 yds rush 2 TDs) (Gabe Davis drop game) Bills win 20-12 NYJ: 16-27 147 yds 1 TDs 59.3% cmpl 3 sacks 86.5 rating (47 yds rush 1 TD) 2021: Bills win 45-17 at NYJ: 21-28 366 yds 2 TD 1 INTs 75 cmpl % 125.6 rating (3 yds rush) Bills win 27-10 NYJ 24-45: 239 yds 2 TDs 53.3% cmpl 2 sacks 83.5 rating (63 yds rush) Josh's average day against his defense breaks down as followed: 227 passing yards 1.6 TDs 1 INT 62.9 compl% 1.5 sacks 36 yards rush .5 rush TDs The only year Josh really was clean against Ulbrich was 2021 and that is the only year he was able to pass in a big way on his defense. From 2022 on Ulbrich absolutely had success reigning Josh in passing wise and 2024 was the only year I would say Josh stayed within himself against that defense without getting sugar high. Josh was only sacked 14 times in 2024, Ulbrichs defense got him 4 times. Where the numbers get even more interesting is from 2021-2025 Josh had 53 INTs and took 109 sacks, Ulbrichs defense was responsible for 9 INTs (16.9%) and 14 sacks (12.8%) total which is pretty strong number in itself. There is something to be said for division games as teams get to know each other really well, but even against the Pats who Josh has had some weirdo games against he has been far more successful in that time period and BB is maybe the best D cord ever so you can understand when the off game happens. But the turnovers and sacks especially paint a picture that Ulbrich in general found ways to slow Josh considerably in a way most teams have not been able to.

Because if the starting QB says make a change or he will make noise to leave he has no choice.

Maybe. I think even he knows that time is ticking with Josh and I can absolutely see Josh saying something if they regress out of the playoffs.

Woof do I have to predict this? Bills 23 Panthers 17 I am not going to go into a long winded thing like normal. I will say this under McD they have never lost post bye and since 2019 they have not lost three in a row. I won't say it is a get right game as much as back to basics type game with limited penalties and no turnovers. I think the Bills have the lead by the 3rd quarter as Josh is more normal and they are running decent. The difference is the additions to the d-line help as the Panthers cannot run the way others have so it slows their attack. A late turnover by Dalton allows a FG by the offense and the defense ends it on downs. If they do lose this game I think the end is here for McD for real and this season very likely becomes a non playoff year.

They may accidently walk into a coach like Bowles who is pretty good and get a QB who is a journeyman like Fitz who is hot to get a wildcard spot. But it will be more accidental then intentional. The great irony is that in the current playoff format the Jets would have made the playoffs as the 7th seed and played New England who they did beat once and lost by 7 the other time. The owner has no ability just to step back and let actual football people run stuff. It was beyond evident last year and continues to be this year.

It shows that variance is a real thing which fans and teams tend to ignore. I read a piece on Jaylen Daniels and he played at such a high level last year that he was basically guaranteed "regression" this year despite the simply fact statistically it is impossible for him to hold that high of a level play that long. It doesn't mean he sucks as much as he really had a great year and some things will fall the opposite way. With Josh he basically didn't turn the ball over or get sacked all season so the offense rolled 24/7 and they were really disciplined all season penalty wise. Non surprisingly things have swung back a little bit so it is "what is wrong" rather then just the odds balancing. The odds will also balance back a bit here and he will have a bunch of good games, but it is tremendously difficult to play at a super high level year in year out without turnovers or sacks etc.. even for the best players. It is why I wanted them to add more at WR as it would have balanced the regression the Bills were destined to hit in terms of turnovers and penalties. In 2023 Josh was mentioned by seasons end as an MVP type candidate by some media analysts, but the opening stinker against the Jets mixed with some average games during the middle of the year killed any real chance of him being in the race and with how media formulates opinions he never had a shot then. What you come to realize is the truly best players have a bunch of great years spread out or occasionally back to back, but their "down years" are still at a very high level of play that most players fail to hold regularly.

The Coleman thing reminds me of how Whaley forced EJ to play and be the game so much in 2014 even with Orton waiting and then everyone realized for a meaningful season to happen you had to put Orton in. Like it or not until Coleman is in a reduced role fitting his skill set better also it will hurt the offense more then help at this point.

Sorry I meant more they let Josh be Josh and you are correct they did run more, but part of that was letting Josh go too. They have said for years and Josh has too that they would rather later in the year Josh takes more hits when it matters then earlier. Josh in those 5 games had 36 yards a game on the ground and 5 TDs, the offense itself ran for 744 and 8 TDs. They absolutely committed to the run way more, but a substantial part was Josh himself was utilized also more.

Not really true and football is weird. NE will have to play ATL/TB back to back plus the Ravens who will have Lamar and some guys on that defense back. The Giants are more then frisky with a great defensive line similar to CLE who they also play. Even the most optimistic Pats fans know their ceiling is probably 12-5 with the games coming as their defense is not perfect and the offense still needs some talent regardless of Maye. With that said the margin for error for Buffalo is now low. Your going to have to beat NE to pretty much guarantee the division crown, but you really can't finish worse then 11-6 to have a decent shot at it and I would honestly say 12-5 is the safe point for the division if you beat NE. The real issue now is far less NE assuming you can win there and can the Bills not slip up too much as the schedule has some challenges especially that back to back of at HOU/ at PIT. You can only lose one of those otherwise tiebreaker wise your opening the door wider where NE is ahead of you even if you tie at the end of the year and even if you beat them in December. Again I was furious when they blew that SNF game at home because they gave the Pats a far greater look then they should've and made the season far more difficult given the remainder of games they have.

It really highlights the mistakes between turnovers and penalties. The Saints game showed how badly they were playing with fire and the following two weeks they got burned bad. NOW mix in points 1 & 2 here and it makes those issues even more sizable. Realistically the reason why nationally more people aren't as concerned as locals and local coverage is because the offense will have far more better days with less penalties & turnovers along with Josh just not having bad days like ATL. To add to that when the numbers say your defense is generating pressure it generally swings back in your favor where the sacks come. That won't save the defense which needs better tackling and coverage, but it will help make them at least more middling. I also believe whether true or not they have a break glass situation with Josh which if it gets tight enough in the season they tell him go nuts. We saw it in 2023 when they were 6-6 and he basically became a wrecking ball. Unfortunately the difference now is the coach and QB over in NE are far better then the guys down south and if they fall off too much here your looking at wildcard spots not the division.

The offense its Josh Dawkins Cook Brown. The defense though since Poyer/Hyde left I honestly think lacks one at this point. I think at times Oliver has that bug but not fully or in the way to get the guys going. Bernard is the captain but I find him lack luster and he really has not found himself yet to get that side of the ball going.

Lol tackling your 40 year old starting QB is not the best idea

I figured he played bad. Pats game he actually was good minus the one INT which he even said was a bad throw by him. The remainder of the night was a lot of WTF are you guys doing stuff for him from turnovers to penalties. His face when Coleman fumbled after they had just got the ball back was "you gotta be kidding this isn't going as planned". ATL though he looked like he was forcing it. That miss to Johnson never happens with him and at that point I was like "yea he is not in his norm tonight". I do think the pressure ATL got through bothered him and it reminded me of the Pats 2023 game where it was just chaos and he wouldn't take what was given to him. The parts around him were also not great, but he had one of his revert to 2019 games which happens once a year. Bigger thing to me still is get a WR in that can diversify the offense and help a bit more. I don't know if the defense can get any better then middle of the road, but I do think with a quality WR addition on the outside the offense can go from very good to elite. Time will tell.

Just gonna say if you praise the Rams remember Les Snead has been GM since 2012 and he had a lotttt of misses until they moved to LA and even after that there were some moves that failed. I do think Beane is a top 10 gm as the hit rate for GMs with the draft itself is basically 33% over time and much more of the GM job is finding talent late or in FA along with managing the cap. The other thing is GMs a lot of times get a grocery list of sorts on what the head coach wants and goes shopping for that. I do not like Beane's arrogance with the WR spot this year and I would like him to admit to it by trading for help. I believe Peter King had a thing or it was Barnwell on the top drafted classes over the last 15 years and the Bills 2018 class was like top 3 in terms of talent. The Ravens with Lamar and the Saints 2017 class would two recent other ones. My basic point is you want to obviously hit big, but it is not nearly as frequent as we would like. His first round picks have generally been good to very strong, his biggest misses have been in rounds 2-3. For some reason round 4-6 he has found a ton of truly good quality starters which makes zero sense why 2-3 he is so shaky. He probably missed badly in 2024 in that draft unfortunately, but from 2021-23 he did draft Spencer Brown, Rousseau, Cook, Bernard, Benford, Shakir, Kincaid, Torrence, and Dorian Williams which is solid group/hit rate. GMs do miss as much as we hate to admit, KC had a spot their guy missed but he kept going and found guys again. This 2025 draft class and 26' probably are more crucial because he needs some gems to come like Walker to really help finish restoring the foundation if they want to be a top roster through 2030. If he missed with the 2024 draft, fine whatever that sucks, jury is out on 2025 as it takes time and 2022 looks amazing now, but he either needs to hit his picks in 2026 OR utilize them for some good talent to help this season and forward.

I would kind of agree with this except the defense was so wrecked by the end of the year they were starting AJ Klein at LB in the game against KC. They had literally one way to win and they almost got there as they had to basically ball control the heck out of the game to help the defense. I still agree to an extent the premise and the defense has been a shell of itself compared to 2019-23 the last two seasons. 2023 though is the one year I give McD some real credit for what he did at the end given their injuries on D and where the team was mid year.

Thank and I agree as I am frustrated also. I personally believe part of the downfield not being attacked is a choice because the defense is a mess injuries and play wise and if Buffalo can keep the other team off the field chasing they prefer that right now. The team with WR choices and gameplan has decided not to attack deep which is a choice and one that needs some type of evolution. I am a big Brady fan as OC but for the first time since he became OC I think he has been behind the opponents defense for most of the games this year. Some of this is due to penalties, the offensive line not being at par, and turnovers the last bunch of weeks, but some of it is being to cute with reverse style plays when we literally need one yard for a first and just sending Josh or Cook forward is the far more logical smarter decision. I absolutely believe he will figure it out quick, but adding Olave or Ridley (fill in a name and its probably an upgrade) would be a seismic help also.

The NFL changed not only 2 high shell but personnel wise. Teams are not giving the big plays up and want you to beat you with a lot of plays. Additionally defenses are far more athletic then they were prior and more defenses have gone back from nickel base to a 4-3 or 3-4. In general the league is always changing and evolving and if you do not evolve with it you die. It is kind of wild people are saying Josh is just a game manager when he won MVP last year and had some of his biggest games of his career that season. I would also add QBs age and time wins every time. Josh long term needs to be a passer first and let his guys do the work if you want him still good come his late 30s. Brady & Manning understood this and their game improved as mentally they could destroy defenses even if physically they were no longer improving or lost a touch.

Washington Sentinels baby!

If he was bold he would do both!

Yea but how is your separation rate?! HMMMM?!

ALL OF THEM. 15-2 MOFO 15-2

Yep. And the defense is so out of whack right now I think guys like him and Benford who had been good to at times great are feeling it which is weighing them down. Outside of Oliver & Walker I am not sure anyone else has looked good and doing what they should and that has a domino effect on the roster.

Edmunds was a better player overall then Bernard but wanted more money which he cashed in on and we wouldn't pay. Bernard was a good value signing with upside for what they wanted but he is a little lesser then Edmunds. From what I have read in Chicago he has been fine but people do think he is too expensive there and I won't be surprised if he gets cut in a year or two for cap reasons.