transplantbillsfan

I'm halfway through Wentz's rookie season. He played all 16 games, so I'm through 8 games and 275 pass attempts... which is just 45 less than Allen attempted this year: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 80.7% Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2% Interceptable Pass %: 5.9% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 84.4% And yes, his numbers are dropping off for good reason... he got significantly less accurate after his strong start. His week 9 game vs the Giants is one of the worst I saw from any of the rookies. He had 13 uncatchable passes. That's the highest number I charted in any of the games. Granted, he threw 47 passes, but those passes were the types of head-scratchers I'm sure the national media points to when they think of Allen. Let's see what Wentz's 2nd half of the season brings...

I'm excited about him. But I was also excited about Da'Rick Rogers.

5 games through Wentz's rookie season: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 83.6% Throwaway/Spike %: 3.2% Interceptable Pass %: 5.3% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 88.2% 1st 5 games resemble the strong start I remembered for Wentz in his rookie year.

My thoughts are we could cut all our TEs and replace them with just about anyone and I wouldn't be upset.

One of the most awkward players I've ever seen with the ball in his hands... not a clue who thought he was some kind of hybrid athletic RAC guy, but he's not. The other problem, of course, is getting it in h8s hands. More drops than any other Bills player I think I've ever seen.

Wow, what a moron.

Ummm... aren't 3 picks missing?

Good one! Everything all right there, pal? Last couple years you've just been getting more and more bitter.

Doing Carson Wentz right now. Looking pretty good just a couple games in. He was really given the reins of the offense, that's for sure. Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 79.4% Throwaway/Spike %: 4.2% Interceptable Pass %: 7.4% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 88.5% Wentz is getting a lot of balls batted and tipped; both at the line and en route to the WR.

https://theathletic.com/793402/2019/02/04/the-athletics-nfl-super-bowl-era-franchise-rankings/ Tier One — The Heavyweights 1. Pittsburgh Steelers Last year: No. 1 Total: 114 points The Steelers passed Dallas to vault into first place a few years ago themselves, but now they find their lead completely erased to a single point over the hard-charging Patriots. Yes, they are in first place, but only barely. The Steelers are the most successful team that has accomplished something of note in every decade and have therefore been a worthy leader for some time. They hold the slimmest lead possible over the Patriots by virtue of having been to five more playoffs and one more championship game. Now we will see if New England has another run in them to go first all-time. Until then, the football world continues to chase this fine franchise from Pittsburgh who missed the playoffs this year, but has been in the mix annually for almost as long as the Super Bowl era has existed. Total playoff years: 72C, 73, 74S, 75S, 76C, 77, 78S, 79S, 82, 83, 84C, 89, 92, 93, 94C, 95SL, 96, 97C, 01C, 02, 04C, 05S, 07, 08S, 10SL, 11, 14, 15, 16C, 17 Playoff years: 30 | Final Fours: 8 | Super Bowl losses: 2 | Super Bowl wins: 6 Average: 2.15 points per season 2. New England Patriots Last year: No. 3 Total: 113 points The Patriots made Super Bowl 31 in the final year of Bill Parcells’ tenure and then had two playoff berths with Pete Carroll. That meant that they ended the previous millennium sitting on 17 points and in the NFL’s bottom third. Their surge since is obviously absurd and the most dominant two-decade stretch in NFL history. Thirteen Final Fours, nine Super Bowls, and six Lombardi Trophies boost their point total by 96 with Brady/Belichick, which matches the entire 53 years of the San Francisco 49ers; and they sit fourth all time! It’s hard to believe, but also hard to deny. We’ve never seen anything like the Patriots and we likely never will again. Passing Dallas on Sunday, they now sit just one point back after sitting near the bottom of the league when I started doing this 19 years ago. Total playoff years: 76, 78, 82, 85SL, 86, 94, 96SL, 97, 98, 01S, 03S, 04S, 05, 06C, 07SL, 09, 10, 11SL, 12C, 13C, 14S, 15C, 16S, 17SL, 18S Playoff years: 25 | Final Fours: 4 | Super Bowl losses: 5 | Super Bowl wins: 6 Average: 2.13 points per season Tier Two — The Light Heavyweights Tier Three -- The Middleweights Tier Four — The Welterweights Bears win tiebreaker over Bills based on Super Bowl wins, 1-0. 19. Buffalo Bills Last year: No. 17 Total: 35 points The Bills returned to the playoffs in 2017 for the first time since the turn of the century. The are famously known for winning four consecutive AFC championship games and then losing each Super Bowl in painful succession. As any Buffalo fan will tell you, only a great team can lose four straight Super Bowls, but that doesn’t heal the wound much. Since that final Super Bowl loss at SB28, they have spent the last 25 years quietly. They actually drop two spots this season as the Ravens and Bears have jumped them. Total playoff years: 66C, 74, 80, 81, 88C, 89, 90SL, 91SL, 92SL, 93SL, 95, 96, 98, 99, 17 Playoff years: 15 | Final Fours: 2 | Super Bowl losses: 4 | Super Bowl wins: 0 Average: 0.66 points per season Tier Five — The Lightweights Tier Six -- The Featherweights

See in week 16 I saw 9 Incompletions that I thought were catchable. I actually made a note saying "maybe 8." On one of those passes a WR slipped. I saw 9 uncatchable in that game, but one of those appears to be a back shoulder throw that Zay doesn't turn around for. I saw 3 Throwaways, but one of those people might gripe with because it was the one with Allen escaping an inevitable safety in the EZ and flipping it to the sidelines. There was an RB (?) In the area but it looked to me like he was getting rid of the ball. My week 17 numbers look similar to yours--I see you also account for 2 Throwaways--but I thought one of his Incompletions was catchable.

Considering I came up with 78.1% overall for Catchable passes on the season, I'd say your 78% is pretty damn well in line with what I saw. And your anecdotal breakdowns of each game are great. Good stuff!

Hey, she never used our safe word

Well... I guess that would partially explain why he's bringin up irrelevant old $#!+ the way my wife does in the middle of and argument about why I didn't take the garbage out.

Dude... it's the offseason... allow a little fun, will ya? Soul mate or just one super hot chick after another.

Enough by what metric? Your own or the standard held to other NFL rookie QBs? If it's the latter--which is what I'd assume you're referring to--the worst thing I think you could say is that Allen's "inaccurate" passes were wider or more off the mark than the other rookies, but his inaccurate throws didn't actually happen with greater frequency than the other guys.

But it doesn't support your argument. I'm assuming you're pointing to my breakdown of Taylor throwing over the middle of the field a few years ago? #1: That wasn't an overly intricate or impossible to chart system. #2: You're really going to use an argument made now 3 years ago--I believe that was the offseason after Taylor's 1st year--to support your adhominem argument? Doesn't make much sense Understand? No, they might not carry the same bias as me, but that doesn't mean they don't carry bias. Of course throwaways are part of overall stats. Duh. But does PFF count them? Do they count batted/tipped passes? That image just shows passes that are underthrows and overthrows. So are throwaways in the overthrow category? Considering a throwaway is something often thought of as a positive thing, to include them in an accuracy breakdown is disingenuous. Of course. How many times have I said that already? How many times do you need me to say it? And do you understand that PFF has people, not robots charting all of these passes and that all people are subjective? I didn't expect my findings to sway a poster like you who has it out for me, but at the very least, I would have hoped it would have pushed you to look at at least a handful of games, chart your findings, come back with what you have so you can then shoot me down rather than just lazily accept PFF's findings. My problem isn't even with the numbers they came up with for Allen, it's the pretty clear disparity between his numbers and those of Mayfield and Jackson. Would your bias be in the way in the sense that you'd be looking to find any way to discredit my own findings? You aren't that petty, are you? As far as time, believe it or not, you can do it relatively quickly if you have 2 browsers open and gamepass. Just click on the game logs and look at the play by plays and find where all the passes are so you can go right to those passes rather than watching every play. Sacrifice a couple hours of reading and posting on here for charting your own numbers and you aren't sacrificing any time at all, actually. That's what I did. As far as track record for evaluations, I think I've done visual evaluations of plays on gamepass only one other time and that was the Taylor middle of the field thing a few years ago that you referenced, and again, much to your distaste of Taylor, there wasn't much wrong there, either.

Wow. Does it just suck being you?

I think Dorsey and Palmer are the frontrunners. Maybe Morhningweg who was named in another article. Anderson is definitely the interesting dark horse.

That's weird. Why are you bringing up Taylor? What does he have to do with this? That's nice. You can trust them if you want. I got no problem with that. But you're trusting them blindly. Well, we can disagree. And we do. I think these "experts" and pundits are often victims of their own analysis, and what did the analysis about Allen coming out of college overwhelmingly state? "Josh Allen has an area code accuracy problem and should sit on the bench for a year or two to learn the game." Now that Allen's rookie year is over and it was for a team like the Bills that just doesn't get a lot of national attention who finished with a worse record than last year and Allen's numbers in the passing game look mediocre to poor, it's pretty easy to gloss over that with an "I was right" and move onto the next guy. You can trust their system, but their system involves nine different categories. If you trust that someone from PFF has accurately divided up Allen's 320 throws into those 9 categories--and it's actually probably significantly less than the 320 total throws because I would assume they would discard throwaways or batted/tipped passes, but since there's nothing to explain that part, who knows?--and is left with an average of less than 40 throws for each category, which means that a single ill-defined pass moves the needle more than a couple percentage points one way or the other.... then... well... you go ahead and do it. I'm not even saying my numbers should be 100% trusted. I did the exercise, was aware of potential subjectivity and tried to absolutely throw it out the window, but also acknowledge that that would be completely understandable for someone not to trust me. But that's why I think you should try it yourself rather than blindly trust someone like PFF. You don't have to be. Try it yourself and draw your own conclusions if you're that skeptical of mine. If you distrust them that much, though, and just don't want to try the exercise, then what's the point of your arguing with me over something you refuse to do? Agreed.

Does he have a sweet thing goin? How much do you think he makes? Regardless, if Jordan Palmer has any desire to coach in the NFL, this would serve as his chance and if Allen developed quickly he could get OC offers relatively quickly... like a year later when Daboll leaves Buffalo.

That was what I saw. Maybe unsurprisingly Baker Mayfield was the one with the most batted balls at the LOS. I don't have the breakdown of tipped at the LOS vs mid air on the way to the WR, but Mayfield had the most at the LOS and Darnold had by far the most mid-flight.

https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2019/01/29/david-culley-hired-away-buffalo-bills-baltimore-ravens-josh-allen/2711845002/ Buffalo Bills in need of new quarterbacks coach as Ravens poach David Culley McDermott’s hiring of Culley in 2017 for his original Bills’ staff was always met with a bit of curiosity because he had never coached quarterbacks in the NFL. Culley spent the first 23 years of his NFL coaching career teaching wide receivers with the Steelers, Eagles and Chiefs. He and McDermott spent several years together on the Philadelphia staff of Andy Reid, so familiarity was one of the reasons he was brought to Buffalo, but putting him in charge of quarterbacks seemed odd. Allen often spoke highly of Culley, but Allen was a rookie who spoke highly of everyone. Perhaps Culley helped Allen, but this seems like a great opportunity for McDermott to hire a true quarterbacks coach to take a deeper dive with the first-round pick. One candidate could be Jordan Palmer, who helped Allen in the lead-up to the 2018 draft and will be working with him over the next couple months in Southern California. However, Palmer has his own quarterback-training business, Summit QB, and he may not be interested in working with a specific team. Another name worth considering is Jim Bob Cooter, the former offensive coordinator in Detroit who worked on the same Kansas City Chiefs staff as Brian Daboll in 2012. That year when Daboll was the offensive coordinator, Cooter was a quality control coordinator. And one more possibility would be former University of Miami quarterback Ken Dorsey. He is the offensive coordinator at Appalachian State, but was on the Carolina Panthers staff with McDermott as quarterbacks coach from 2013-17.

It's because I actually watched every single pass of all 5 rookies along with Watson--so far---and as I watched every single pass I identified each pass simply as catchable or uncatchable and what I saw was that Allen's accuracy was at least similar to all the other rookies this year and Watson last year. That's why. It's not that their observations don't align with my confirmation bias. It's that their system is clearly overly intricate and impossible to accurately chart with NINE different categories each throw would fall into. And how is each of those categories defined? For example, are passes 20 yards down the field to a WR who has to stop in the middle of a crossing route to catch the football in his chest still one of those throws that they categorize in that "Accurate+" circle in the middle of the body? Seems like my "confirmation bias" is no stronger than theirs, honestly.

Was he? How do you know? Maybe you're right, but he was our QB coach for the last 2 years and it didn't seem like Culley was responsible for much production from the position. I don't think it was coincidental that Allen's improvements coincided with our acquisition of Anderson off the street and Allen getting the opportunity to be on the bench for a while. You might be right, but I just don't know why you assume he was great for Allen's development or why he isn't relatively easily up-gradable as a QB coach.