transplantbillsfan

I decided I'm actually gonna go back to some previous high profile rookie QBs. I'm talking mainly the 1st rounders like this year, but I'm not gonna do guys who are busts like Paxton Lynch. But I will do some other guys who weren't 1st round picks but played a lot their rookie year and went on to be successful like Dak and (if I go that far back) Russell Wilson. I'm halfway through Deshaun Watson's rookie season. So far, Exluding Throwaways: Catchable pass %- 78.2% Throwaway/Spike %- 2.5% Interceptable pass %- 9% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls- 81.3% I'll update the OP as I finish each individual new QB's rookie season and fit it all together to see how Allen ranks in comparison to all those other rookie seasons. Watson as of now is a hair ahead of Allen in Catchable pass % but worse than him in Interceptable pass %.

Completion percentage and accuracy aren't the same thing, and you talked about them as though they are. Completion percentage involves the pass AND the catch. Accuracy JUST involves the pass. Allen's accuracy is fine by NFL standards, not just rookie standards, but as far as rookies go, he's actually good.

No. His completion percentage is mainly because of his incompetent offensive weapons. Allen's accuracy was what you see from a typical 1st round NFL rookie QB.

I will always personally expect to see him revert on occasion throughout his entire career. Allen's not a QB who's ever going to be PERFECTLY CONSISTENT in his accuracy... but the key is to get him to be as consistent as he can possibly be, and the fact that he's out in Cali working with a guy who obviously helped him mechanically from College to the pros should be really, really encouraging. I really kinda would love to draft JA, the Kentucky version, just for entertainment purposes.

I really think the continuity of Daboll with McDermott is huge and I really, really hope Daboll is already grooming his inevitable replacement if Allen and the offense look good next year because he'll get a Head Coaching gig. The Patriots have benefited so damn much from the consistency of their Coordinators year after year after year. It's another reason to hate them.

Allen certainly needs to work on his mechanics for consistency's sake this offseason and it''s really promising that he's taking it upon himself to do it, but his accuracy was actually pretty darn good for a rookie QB. If you actually watch all the rookie QB seasons, the guy who really needs to work on his accuracy this offseason is Josh, but Rosen, not Allen.

Jackson didn't mention Darnold working with Palmer, but I know Allen and Darnold are pretty tight at least. I think they were at some video game convention or something competing against each other. I stand corrected. Thank you!

Well, we need OL, WR and TE, and I see all those positions in our general vicinity. So that's good. If Josh Jacobs is really that good and falls to us, I really won't be surprised if we draft him... But that's a dark horse pick.

and McDermott is not only aware of it, he's good with it (some weird typos in this quote): https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/01/22/josh-allen-offseason-plans-buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott/amp/#click=https://t.co/Pvc3Fkqp3O “We respect and trust what Jordan (Palmer) does out there. And certainly… understand Josh’s relationship and trust with Jordan, I think that relationship is a good one,” McDermott said. “I think it’s important that (players) work with the right people,” McDermott added. “We’ll be in tough with Jordan and make sure we’ll in sync with stuff as much as possible in terms of terminology, technique, things that we feel like he’ll need to work on. Josh already went out there equipped with much of that when he left Buffalo.”

I also thought this was really interesting since I wouldn't even be able to begin to attempt identifying base defenses:

Interesting article on improvements over the season from empty sets along with other notes on just how abysmal our offensive weapons have been https://buffalonews.com/2019/01/21/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-offense-analysis-empty-formation-brian-daboll-2018-receivers-running-backs-snap-counts/ Offense analysis: Josh Allen's improvement seen in empty formations Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said Allen’s improvement in understanding protections during the four weeks he was out due to injury, helped him run empty sets more effectively. “When you line up in a spread out formation it does a few things,” Daboll said. “One, it puts stress on your line if you’re going to hold it a little bit because now usually you don’t have some double edges there to help. Two, it allows him to see the field and expand the defense." ... The Bills ran empty sets on 7.8 percent of plays overall in 2018 and 16.7 percent of their plays the last six weeks. That would be about the league lead for a full season. In 2017, Arizona led the NFL in using empty sets 17 percent of plays, and the league average was 8 percent. Running a lot of empty sets on third-and-long situations becomes problematic, because against good pass-rush teams the quarterback often gets hit before the receivers reach the first-down sticks. The Bills went empty on 5.6 percent of plays in 2017, and Tyrod Taylor had much less production than Allen. Taylor was 18 for 39 for 160 yards and ran seven times for 46 yards. ... Late-season improvement ... WR shortfall ... Worst RB production ever ... First-down improvement ... Snap counts

Well, running is about the only way Allen could be successful with this ragtag OL and WRs Hopefully we give him some guys who can catch the damn ball.

Talk about inflation!

https://buffalonews.com/2019/01/17/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lorenzo-alexander-kyle-williams-nfl-football-vic-carucci/ On whether there are specific areas of his game he’s addressing. “Obviously, getting back to our drops, working on footwork, working on timing, and then just trying to get some throws up. Obviously, being smart about how many throws you do in this offseason, trying to get a little regimented plan on when to throw and when not to throw. Just being smart with that aspect, but still going through footwork drills, working on drops, trying to time them up with what we've got in our offense so then we get back into camp, all that stuff’s been rehearsed in practice and we’ve got good repetition with that.” On whether he’ll continue to work with Jordan Palmer, the Southern California-based quarterback guru with whom he worked in preparation for pre-draft workouts. “Yeah, I’ll still continue to work with him. He's got some draft guys right now and I’ll be seeing him pretty shortly and talking with those guys. Obviously, if he needs some help doing that I’m more than happy to give some advice. Going through this year, going through the draft process, there's some tidbits I can give them, but, yeah, I’ll still be working with (Palmer).” Very true. Incredible, isn't it? And how was Allen lower than Lamar Jackson, who was the longest shot to start a game this year? Hell, how was Darnold lower than him?

This is really only tangentially related to this, but interesting nonetheless:

I really think there were a ton of random errors, actually. To me it looked like there was a whole lot of miscommunication. It'd be great to hear from Allen and Daboll about every pass the way we did after that 1st Miami game with the wide open Zay miss in the EZ. Knowing that was a miscommunication sure made me feel a helluva lot better about that seemingly atrocious pass.

Editing the title of his other thread would have been fine and helpful, but it's not lazy to NOT constantly go and check a thread about a player being back every hour or every day just to see if contract details have been released. This is news worthy of being advertised for all to know before even entering the thread.

Thanks, appreciate you starting this thread. Certainly worthy of a thread of its own rather than buried in another thread

Thanks for this. I like that someone went through this exercise in some form. For that game what I came up with were 27 catchable balls (4 were incompletions), 9 were uncatchable, 1 throwaway, 5 tipped/batted, 4 interceptable. And yeah, you sum things up well

I understand that. I was never talking precision, I was talking accuracy in relation to the 4 other rookies who don't have the same narrative as being inaccurate. Maybe Allen is inaccurate. If he is, so are the rest of the rookies. But as to precision, I think people are unrealistic about what NFL precision for really good QBs are. Drew Brees is an absolute freak when it comes to accuracy and precision, but even he will miss throws. So according to that diagram you guys were pointing to earlier, his diagram might have 20 red dots on the bullseye and maybe 3 on the fringes. Is that still precise? What if it were 15 on the bullseye and 2 on the fringes? 13 and 2? 11 and 2? At what point does it become precise? Allen can and has made precise throws. And on the flip side, Brees, Brady and Rodgers make imprecise, even wildly inaccurate throws. If you're to trust these numbers are accurate, look who's #3 and #4 Yet, Brady and Rodgers are precision passers? I want Allen to be more precise, but he's never going to be a precision passer, especially by the definition you guys are focused on. But he doesn't have to be a precision passer to be a good, great or even HOF worthy QB. He just needs to be accurate.

I don't really feel like arguing the semantics of the meanings of a word. I think we're on the same page

Huh? You think that I'm arguing that completion percentage = accuracy? Am I misreading that? That's absolutely not what I said. This thread has turned into an argument over how to define accuracy and the difference between accuracy and precision. I get the reason that discussion evolved, but mainly my conclusion after doing this exercise is that as far as the rookie QBs go, Allen throws the ball where it should/could be caught just fine. Obviously he can improve, and I'm sure he's the first to tell you that. But his rookie year as a QB passing the football was pretty much as promising as the rest of this highly touted rookie QB class. Really the exercise I would want to do would be to explore previous rookie QB classes to make that comparison. Rookies always have to improve. Comparing him to Brees or Brady and criticizing him or any other rookie based on that comparison is just stupid. Allen's rookie season looked absolutely more than fine as far as rookie seasons go for him passing the football. And even though I expect and want him to improve, I think if we simply upgrade our offensive weapons to guys who can catch the damn ball and our OL is no longer a sieve, even with no personal improvements in the offseason and a replicated rookie season as far as accuracy goes, I think his numbers will still skyrocket and this team will still exceed the expectations of most.