transplantbillsfan

I concede you have an interesting theory. Lots of early 2nd rounders are productive NFL players. I just went all the way back to 2010. It really falls back into scrubs. And other than the 4 you mentioned here, while a good number of early 2nd rounders are hits, few to none outside the 4 guys you just mentioned are stars to superstars. Gotta go top 3 WRs for that.

Mmmhmmmm.... remember this Thurm when talking about QBs having an Elite weapon in almost all of the last 5 Super Bowls... both winners and losers???? @Thurman#1"Kupp the year the Rams won. Top ten surely, but not elite. 1161 yards is damn good, 9th in the league among WRs that year, but not elite." Love the way you ran away from that conversation right after me calling you out on Kupp, Evans and Kelce not being Elite. I see that you keep responding to me... maybe I'll read them, but right now...

Guys... can someone find Thurm's sponsor... he's clearly losing it

⁰ I said drafting one of the first 3 WRs. In 2019 Deebo was #3 Interesting perspective, but honest question, do you really think it we keep going back 15-20 years that trend keeps up? We can take the time to do it as long as you acknowledge your flawed premise. Of course I'd do the same. I didn't include Ruggs as a hit, so why does the fact that I brought it up make you so upset? I actually think listing those QBs works against you

The fact that you tried to make a guy who was an All-Pro twice as a punt returner really says everything here. If you're going to make an argument, don't reach. We need a #1 or #2 WR... not a punt returner. Focus on that

What a terrible example! At least use the 2011 Julio Jones trade. That's worse case scenario. Also look at the Mahomes and Jameson Williams trade up. Good grief at least be a little more realistic with your examples.

There... I fixed it for you with the bolded. Buffalo at this moment only has 2 true NEEDS on the team. A WR and RB for the roster. The rest of the things you had there arenwants... McBeane may disagree. You said Center. Did you think Beane was lying about McGovern shifting to Center? You said Safety. That's just a want on your part. We have 2 Safeties on the team who have started many NFL games and 2 backups who have been in the system for a while. You also neglected the $10m CAP space we get June 1st.

So funny story... my eyes are apparently going bad and sometimes I look at these posts on my 8 inch tablet. I make the text bigger, which cuts off usernames. It's kinda nice because I read every post without bias against the name. As soon as I got to the bolded line, I knew it would be only a couple posters... you were one of them

Actually... you'd be better getting one of the top 3 WRs in the draft than either of those scenarios. Diana Russini posted an article going back a few weeks ago that goes back 13 years. Top 3 WR has the highest hit %.

Again... hindsight is 20/20 here. You can say this yourself, but 2021 was viewed as a deep class. I didn't just look at the hit rate from one draft. I looked at the hit rate of 5 drafts. And someone just asked me to add in 1996, which was labelled as "ridiculous." 1st round looks like an 80% hit rate... arguably 100%. 2nd and 3rd rounds... well... why don't you tell us who the hits are. TO???? Absolutely! Ahmani Toomer & Muhsin Muhammed? Yep! That's 37.5%. Better than the other years I looked at, but there's a wider gap now between the 1st round and 2nd & 3rd round WRs. Anyone else in that draft from 2nd and 3rd round that year that would bring that up more? Go find a draft where this doesn't play out. Sure seems like my original premise is correct.

Okay... but I think it just solidifies my point further. 1st round 1 1 NYJ Keyshawn Johnson 1 7 NWE Terry Glenn 1 18 STL Eddie Kennison 1 19 IND Marvin Harrison HOF 1 24 BUF Eric Moulds 2nd & 3rd round 2 31 NYJ Alex Van ***** 2 34 NYG Amani Toomer 2 41 SDG Bryan Still 2 43 CAR Muhsin Muhammad 2 52 CHI Bobby Engram 2 56 GNB Derrick Mayes 3 89 SFO Terrell Owens HOF 3 94 DAL Stepfret Williams

So give us some historically deep draft classes. I feel like you're using some revisionist history here so I'll call your bluff. The 2021 and 2020 classes were also considered deep. Just look back at some of the narrative from the 2021 class alone: Excerpt from The Athletic regarding the 2021 top 20 WRs in the class: https://theathletic.com/2405616/2021/02/24/top-20-receivers-for-2021-nfl-draft-jamarr-chase-jaylen-waddle-top-talented-class/ The volume of talent at receiver rivals last year’s, which set a record with 13 receivers drafted in the first two rounds. I don’t think this year’s group will break that mark. But I do believe this class will have more receivers drafted in the top three rounds than last year’s class (15). From PFF regarding the 2021 class: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-ranking-wide-receiver-prospects-lsu-jamarr-chase The sheer depth is also incredible. For the second year in a row, several receivers will be selected in the first round, and they will be joined by a host of impact rookies taken on Day 2 and Day 3 of the draft, such is the array of talent available. Sound familiar?

5 years of drafting in round 1 separated from 5 years of drafting in rounds 2 & 3. It's just round they were drafted and the order they were drafted. 1st Round Wide Receivers 2023 1 SEA Jaxon Smith-Njigba 1 LAC Quentin Johnston 1 BAL Zay Flowers 1 MIN Jordan Addison 2022 1 ATL Drake London 1 NYJ Garrett Wilson 1 NOR Chris Olave 1 DET Jameson Williams 1 WAS Jahan Dotson 1 TEN Treylon Burks 2021 1 CIN Ja'Marr Chase 1 MIA Jaylen Waddle 1 PHI DeVonta Smith 1 NYG Kadarius Toney 1 BAL Rashod Bateman 2020 1 LVR Henry Ruggs III 1 DEN Jerry JeudyWR 1 DAL CeeDee Lamb 1 PHI Jalen Reagor 1 MIN Justin Jefferson 1 SFO Brandon Aiyuk 2019 1 BAL Marquise Brown 1 NWE N'Keal Harry 2nd & 3rd Round Wide Receivers 2023 2 CAR Jonathan Mingo 2 GB Jayden Reed 2 KC Rashee Rice 2 DEN Marvin Mims 3 HOU Nathaniel Dell 3 NYG Jalin Hyatt 3 CLE Cedric Tillman 3 IND Josh Downs 3 ARI Michael Wilson 3 LVR Tre Tucker 2022 2 GNB Christian Watson 2 NYG Wan'Dale Robinson 2 HOU John Metchie 2 NWE Tyquan Thornton 2 PIT George Pickens 2 IND Alec Pierce 2 KAN Skyy Moore 3 CHI Velus Jones Jr. 3 DAL Jalen Tolbert 3 CLE David Bell 3 SFO Danny Gray 2021 2 NYJ Elijah Moore 2 ARI Rondale Moore 2 SEA D'Wayne Eskridge 2 LAR Tutu Atwell 2 CAR Terrace Marshall Jr. 3 LAC Josh Palmer 3 WAS Dyami Brown 3 GNB Amari Rodgers 3 HOU Nico Collins 3 CLE Anthony Schwartz 2020 2 CIN Tee Higgins 2 IND Michael Pittman Jr. 2 JAX Laviska Shenault Jr. 2 DEN KJ Hamler 2 PIT Chase Claypool 2 LAR Van Jefferson 2 NYJ Denzel Mims 3 LVR Lynn Bowden Jr. 3 LVR Bryan Edwards 3 BAL Devin Duvernay 2019 2 SFO Deebo Samuel 2 TEN A.J. Brown 2 KAN Mecole Hardman 2 PHI JJ Arcega-Whiteside 2 IND Parris Campbell 2 ARI Andy Isabella 2 SEA D.K. Metcalf 3 PIT Diontae Johnson 3 SFO Jalen Hurd 3 WAS Terry McLaurin 3 BAL Miles Boykin Bolded guys are hits... obviously in my opinion. 50% hit rate for round 1 over the last 5 years along with several I think we might qualify as TBD (JSN, Johnston, Williams) and the unfortunate situation of Ruggs who was actually on his way to being a hit. There's an even stronger argument for getting one of the top 3 guys in the draft. The hit rate there is 60%. If JSN & Johnston pan out, that hit rate goes up to 73%. If Ruggs didn't end up in prison and he continued on his upward trajectory in 2021, that hit rate for a top 3 Wide Receiver in the last 5 drafts goes up to 80%... think about that... 80% hit rate potentially over the last 5 years if you just draft one of the first 3 WRs in the draft??? Rome Odunze, anyone???? Then you have the 2nd and 3rd round guys. 27% hit rate, very few TBDs (Mims, Hyatt... anyone else???) and a bunch of clear busts with some guys bouncing around the league if they're even still in it.

I strongly believe if Odunze falls out of the top 10 Beane is going to work some magic on the phones. Dude screams Buffalo.

So Diana Russini looked back at the last 13 years of draft classes to examine bust potential of 1st round WR in this article https://theathletic.com/5405843/2024/04/10/odds-a-first-round-wr-busts-scoop-city?source=user-shared-article It was objective. Here's the criteria: To sort stars, busts and everything in between, I looked at four criteria: Starts: Was the player good (and healthy) enough to start at least 50 career games? Production: Did he post two 1,000-yard seasons? No. 1 option: Has he seen 150-plus targets in any season? Paid: Did his team pick up his fifth-year option? Findings for WRs were 63% bust or reach in the 1st round and just 17.5% Superstar. However, that same criteria was also put to drafting a WR in the top 10 amd the bust or reach rate drops to 47% and the Superstar rate jumps to 29.4%. Much to the chagrin of @Thurman#1 this sure seems to support the idea of getting one of the Big 3. And what's fascinating is that while some *ahem* argue we can find great WRs in later rounds, listening to the "Move the Sticks" podcast today with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks, they actually listed all the 2nd round draft picks from 2020-2022. Pretty terrible list. Go back and look at 2nd and 3rd round WRs drafted over the last 4 or 5 years compared to the 1st round and especially compared to WRs drafted top 10. Utterly forgettable.

Just went back and read this to humor you and still couldn't even make it to the end Bruh... what happened to you... your arguments used to be much stronger. Elite weapons are Elite weapons. Sounds like you define them by the stats they have in the year your labeling them while simultaneously neglecting the fact that Cooper Kupp had one of the best seasons by a WR in NFL history the year the Rams won the Super Bowl. Mike Evans and Travis Kelce are 1st ballot HOFers. Are you #^%@ing serious??? Plus there's the whole Godwin and Gronk thing when Brady won with the Bucs.

Resorting to ad hominem now?

Took me years to figure this out, but reading whole posts of yours is often pointless. 3rd-5th paragraphs I addressed already. We disagree on glaring holes at positions other than WR. The crux of your argument is that there are glaring holes equal to or bigger than WR. I disagree with that. I actually don't even think that there's an argument that WR doesn't stand alone as the biggest and most glaring need. No point in this discussion if you can't see that.

Stopped reading after the first few paragraphs. It's not that you're missing the point, it's that our underlying assumption of this team overall differs, which throws us off in different directions on the WR discussion. The Bills already have a good team. In another thread I posit the belief that Buffalo will be better next season already. Since I posted that thread (if I have the timing right), the Bills have signed Samuel, 2 veteran DTs, Mike Edwards, Lael Collins and possibly Toohill if that was the timing. And we traded away Diggs. I posted that thread because I believe most position groups are poised to be better than they were last year along with our coaching staff. You can disagree with that, which you clearly do. But the FACT remains that there are really only 2 positions on this team with glaring holes: RB & WR. You don't draft RBs in round 1 and we'll be fine getting a guy like Estime in mid to later rounds. But our WR corps is Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, and Shorter. That's it. Yes, we have several futures contracts with potential, but unlike you, I'd rather not roll the dice on the lesser known guys. There's a reason pretty much everyone is talking about drafting a WR very early. We need one and it's probably the one hole that absolutely needs to be filled. If our top 3 WRs going into 2024 are Shakir, Samuel & Hollins, I don't think anyone is feeling great. And it's pretty Universal in this draft who the top 3 guys are and pretty Universal they're in a tier of their own. Yes, I will be excited if we draft a guy like Legette. But after the top 3 guys the scouts and draft experts vary wildly on opinions. Legette is Joe Marino's 4th rated WR and has a 1st round grade. He's Brugler's 15th rated WR and has a 3rd round grade. Odunze, Nabers & MHJ are guys worth the resources. Mahomes may have won 2 Super Bowls without Hill, but he still had Kelce for both. And the training wheels of Hill & Kelce certainly helped him get there twice previously. Get Josh his #1.

Mahomes won with the best TE in the NFL and one of the best WRs in the NFL. If you're talking about "drafted in the top 10," that's fine except it's a crap shoot. Ryan's MVP season and Super Bowl loss season was with one of the best WRs in the NFL who happened to be a top 10 pick. Mahomes's first 2 Super Bowl appearances (1 loss and 1 win) were with 2 of the best weapons in all of the NFL. They both had red flags due to character concerns that dropped them in the draft. Nothing is ever guaranteed in the NFL. Did you think I was saying it was? See my previous comments on Mahomes. Of course you can get an Elite WR later in the draft, but hindsight is 20/20 and those players aren't guaranteed. The argument is silly and looks only in the rearview mirror. Nothing is guaranteed with the top 3 WRs, but in particular MHJ & Odunze look to be as close to those can't miss/high floor prospects there have been in many years. Teams that play for a Lombardi have at least 1 Elite weapon more often than not. Look at the 5 most recent Super Bowls. All 10 teams had 1 or more Elite Weapon. I'll be fine if we stay put or trade down to get one of the other WRs. One of them might pan out and become Elite. I think Josh being their QB will help them with that. But trading up and getting one of the Big 3 (Odunze just screams Buffalo to me) sounds more appealing.

Matt Ryan ain't Josh Allen, first of all. Second of all, the Falcons blew that Super Bowl. And getting to the NFC Conference Championship game in Julio's 2nd year is a success to me. The model is Mahomes. Dude had 2 HOFers for his first 4 years as he figured things out. Still had Kelce the last 2 years. I think Josh deserves 2 Elite weapons for once in his career. We can hope Kincaid gets there. Beane might try to outsmart the room and get Legette/Mitchell/McConkey/Worthy/etc.... but is there seriously anyone who would object to trading away our 1st & 4th this year, 1st next year, and swapping 60 with 75 this year to jump up to 9 for Chicago's pick to get Odunze??? That was Joe Marino's massive trade up proposal on his podcast today. He didn't directly say it but he usually uses the PFF mock simulator, so I assume those values are about right... and if you think back to the Chiefs trading up for Mahomes with the Bills I. 2018, that's in the ballpark. That would still leave us with 8 picks this year (a 3rd, a 4th, 3 5ths, 2 6ths & a 7th) and 8 picks next year (two 2nds, a 3rd, two 4ths, a 5th, a 6th, a 7th)... Plus next year we'll have CAP space to play with. The Falcons had the 2nd worst CAP situation in the NFL as the 2012 season (Julio's 2nd season) started. They weren't much better the following year. They also had 6 total picks in 2011 and 2012. The 2024 Bills wouldn't be anything like the 2011 Atlanta Falcons. 4 more draft picks. A better QB. More CAP space. I want us to trade up for 1 of the Big 3. I'll be fine if it doesn’t happen and I think Josh Allen will elevate whatever WR(s) we get from the next tier(s), but I think if this team really wants to practice what it preaches and not force Josh to be Superman all the time, we need at least one HOF talent guy. I don't even know if Diggs is getting a Gold jacket. I do know that he should have stuck around in Buffalo if he wanted one, because the QB is largely determinant in that respect. See Kelce and Hill for reference.

I actually think that's a pretty good deal. KC got a pretty good deal to trade up for Mahomes, but they still gave up their 3rd that year along with 2 1sts. The Julio Jones trade from 27 to 6 consisted of 2 1sts, 2nd round draft picks in consecutive years, and 4th round draft picks in consecutive years. If Buffalo traded up for Odunze or Nabers in the top 10 and only gave up their 2nd this year and 1st next year after swapping 1sts, I'd be pretty ecstatic, honestly. Then we can just root for Minny to tank next year to make that 2nd round pick we acquired from the Texans more valuable and maybe use one of our comp picks combined with that pick to trade back into the late first, where we (hopefully) would be picking anyway. And we still have 7 picks in rounds 4-7 this year for Beane to play around with and use as ammunition to trade back up into the 3rd or earlier than his picks to get guys he wants. I just don't think that would be enough trade capital to trade up. Can you blame them?

That's what happens when you acquire a new Pro Bowl WR via trade. Remember all the videos of Tua to Tyreek? We haven't done that since 2020.

Why do you need JA videos so badly? That's just creepy