transplantbillsfan

Speaking of which, how's that Fathead you have of me above your bed holding up? Let me know if you need a new picture... I know how much you so miss me when we're apart

Yeah he absolutely will. 173 yards passing, 53 yards rushing and less than 2 TDs per game out of the QB position simply doesn't cut it long term. But those numbers appear to be a symptom of the bigger problems we had on offense in 2018, not Allen himself.

He has an accuracy problem in the same manner all the other rookies do. Strive for 100% accuracy. That'd be wonderful. But considering Allen and all the other rookie QBs hover somewhere around 80% as far as throwing balls that can be caught, McBeane will and should be much more worried about upgrading the talent surrounding Allen to help his completion percentage go up than Allen himself putting in the work, which he started doing right after the season ended when he went out to Cali to work with Jordan Palmer again.

Yeah, Allen has work to do on his accuracy, but no more than the typical NFL rookie... and that's on all passes. I still challenge you to go do the work and watch every rookie pass. If Allen has an accuracy problem, so does every single rookie this year along with Watson last year and Wentz from 2 years ago, who had a game more awful than any individual game of Allen's accuracy wise when the Eagles played the Giants in week 9. The idea that Allen needs to take more checkdowns is absolutely true. But the numbers say Allen threw the fewest number of passes 10 yards or less? Well, to be frank, part of the problem was that our WRs and TEs sucked. They either couldn't get open or couldn't catch the damn ball. On plays like this, Allen occasionally took an unnecessary sack. But he would also gain positive yards on other plays like this with his legs. Actually he did that 40 times for 412 yards, 15 1st downs and 4 TDs. I hope our WRs upgrade massively this offseason through a combination of Foster and Say getting better and going out and drafting or acquiring a couple more who could push for a #1 or #2 role. Along with dumping Clay and getting other TEs--just about anyone else will do--if we can upgrade these weapons I think we're going to see Allen's completion percentage go up at all levels of the field and he's going to trust in them more and actually throw more of those checkdowns. We could also maybe consider massively upgrade our OL so they can protect him for longer so he can continue to throw downfield more than any other QB in the NFL since that's his greatest strength...

Well... This guy definitely is... and this guy probably is.

It does. But not as dramatically necessarily as many would think.

And also WRs not necessarily being open or immediate pressure he avoids via his athleticism. I think Allen as our leading rusher is a terrible thing. But Allen gaining 500 yards plus or minus on the ground with his legs on passing plays that break down is just fine.

That sounds more like a WR problem. These guys are supposed to be professionals... catch the damn ball. Regardless, if that's Allen's biggest problem we should all be encouraged because he actually didn't do that all that much.

Oh I personally don't think you're going to get what you're saying here Shaw. Allen just isn't the QB who takes you down with constant 3-7 yard passes the way Brady does and I don't think any OC of Allen's would be wise to have that dominate the game plan. I'm not saying Allen can't do it. I'm saying that's not his greatest strength. And you should develop gameplans to your players' strengths. This is getting away from accuracy, but Allen's version of a crackdown a lot of the time is him using his legs. And those are positive plays for positive yards. I just looked it up and Allen scrambled 40 times on the year for 412 yards with 15 1st downs, 6 of which were on 3rd down passing plays... he had 10 such 3rd down scrambles so that means he was 60% on such conversions, which is a REALLY good number for a 3rd down passer. Plus, he had 4 TDs scrambling. With all of that said, I hope Daboll completely eliminates designed runs from our offense. Allen on designed runs vs Allen on scrambles is a different beast--10.3 YPC on 40 scrambles vs 4.9 YPC on designed runs-- and again, I really think it's because a scramble is the perfect checkdown for him sometimes. But back to the accuracy thing, if he can run and use his legs wisely like in the way I just said, even a lower than 60% completion percentage doesn't doom him if he's throwing consistently down the field. Newton's MVP 15-1 Super Bowl runner up season proves that. But again, I don't think the way Newton's been handled--with mostly designed runs--is the way to go. But Allen should have the freedom to run while continuing to function with enough accuracy to be successful. And right now, he already looks like he has enough accuracy to be successful.

Yeah that's a little extreme, but I think it pretty much nails it. Allen, I doubt, will ever be above 65% completion percentage. He just throws downfield too much and the farther down the field you go, the lower percentage throws they are. But if he can complete those downfield throws with relative consistency and continue to use his legs intelligently and efficiently, his future absolutely could still be very bright.

Amen brotha... Amen

I still disagree about the legs. Allen averaged more than 7 yards on any run, but he was over 10 yards on every scramble on a passing play. Of course the coaches wouldn't want Incompletions, but Allen's legs do compensate some for them. Cam Newton wouldn't still be a starting QB if that weren't the case.

Look who's been posting incite in this thread the entire time. I'd expect nothing less from you. Now half your competition is gone. You gonna start feuding stupidly with Yolo next?

In watching Rosen I never thought he didn't belong. Again part of the findings for me in this exercise is that all the rookies look promising, except Jackson who's too much of a gimmick with an awkward delivery. But all of them have accuracy problems if Allen does. And I still think Fitz has gas in his tank. Not dead yet.

Man... someone sounds jealous. Shady, do you have naughty dreams about 26CB involving him tied to a table with an apple in his mouth and you with a whip... and leather everywhere???

At least PFF acknowledges the serious issue with the dropsies our WRs had https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/08/buffalo-bills-top-10-drops-dropped-passes-josh-allen-kelvin-benjamin-zay-jones/ 9th highest drop % in the league, according to them.

10 games now into Wentz's rookie season: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 79.3% Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2% Interceptable Pass %: 6.3% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 83.6%

You're right--though I think another argument to be made is that Allen doesn't have to be a 60+% passer simply because of what he does with his legs. But that's the other part of the point here. Does the evidence suggest Allen's completion % is a reflection of his accuracy or does it suggest it's a reflection of his supporting cast, among other things? If I were finding right now Allen's low completion % were a reflection of his accuracy, I think we'd all have a lot to worry about because I really don't think accuracy can be fixed to the point where you can turn a really inaccurate passer into a really accurate passer. But that's not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing a QB who's throwing the ball where he wants it to go and a lot of WRs/TEs/RBs who aren't coming up with the football. And so I expect Allen's completion % to go up into the low 60s in the next year or 2 if Beane honestly goes about these next 2 offseasons as he claimed he would in surrounding Allen with talent.

I wasn't doing the work to justify his low completion percentage. I did the work to see how truly "inaccurate" Allen is in comparison with other rookies. Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold have completion %s this year in the mid 50s, but there's not this widespread "he's inaccurate!!!" narrative with them.

I don't care if it'll always be questioned. Climate change is still being questioned. Evolution is still being questioned. It's almost impossible to convince EVERYONE of just about anything, even if there's overwhelming evidence one way or another. There are people with low completion %s because they're inaccurate and there are people with low completion %s due in larger part to other factors. I care if he's accurate or not. If his low completion % is due in large part to other factors rather than accuracy, his completion % will increase significantly once those other factors are resolved.

It's too bad you're so ridiculously biased you can't even have a reasonable conversation about accuracy. Come back when you can do that.... and you should probably stop cheating on your girlfriend. That's vile and disgusting. Just break up with her.

And in that game he threw 11 catchable passes, 5 uncatchable passes, 2 throwaways and had 1 pass batted/tipped. That Interception was the 1 incompletion that should have been a catch. It was to Andre Holmes and pretty much hit him right between the hands and bounced high into the air. And if it didn't hit him in the hands, it pretty much would have embedded itself into his helmet. That's how on-target that pass that counted not just as an incompletion but also as an interception was, and it's actually the perfect example of why maybe you should try this exercise rather than just pointing out stats, so thank you.

The last game I watched of Wentz was maybe the worst game I saw from any of the rookies I saw accuracy-wise. He was for sure in what I charted as that game he had the biggest number of uncatchable passes and the highest percentage of uncatchable passes over the other rookies, but I'm talking anecdotally. I'm talking about just how wildly off-target he was in that game. He looked worse in that game than Allen looked in any game he played. Whatever conclusions you may think I want, I chose to do this very simple uncatchable vs. catchable (ball hits--or can hit--palm of hand = Catchable vs ball doesn't hit--or can't hit--palm of hand = Uncatchable) because It severely diminishes any subjectivity in the matter.

Well, doesn't really save me the work because I'm trying to place these guys on a scale in context of each other. As of right now Wentz is ranked #1. If what you say is true I wonder how much his numbers fall. After him I think I'm gonna do the Golden Boy: Andrew Luck.

Good. I hope they get it. He is literally the ONLY significant contributor on our D this past year who is a UFA. Maintaining our D this coming year would be huge. I think our O takes steps forward... big steps. If our D is still as good, we're golden. But gotta start working on extending Hughes relatively quickly, too. We can't let him walk.