transplantbillsfan

Look at those images. It's pretty clear they're talking about precision. And that image is problematic to me because it's highly highly subjective. They even put value weighting on ball location, which is even more subjective. And have you read up on how PFF does its work? Last I checked, it was people who did the film work, not a computer model.

I've really been seriously trying to get someone, anyone--including posters like Thurm and Foxx who seem to strongly disagree with me on just about everything--to do the same exercise to cross-check my numbers. So far racketmaster has done some, but it's clear we're using different criteria. I would really love someone to just watch Allen and then go back and watch Wentz's rookie season, which is like a tale of 2 seasons: 1st 4 games vs last 12 games.

Absolutely. Processing was Allen's biggest struggle, but you could tell it immensely improved after the injury. As for accuracy, Allen's catchable ball % pre-injury vs post-injury was pretty similar, actually.

Forget it. Guess we're just talking around each other.

I think I have explained this a million times, but once again, what actually happened was that after we drafted Allen, I was miserable because I thought we made a terrible choice. However, my basis for that opinion was such a teeny tiny amount of game-watching and almost no background research into the kid. I truly was convinced we wouldn't make what I believed--based on an extremely inadequate research/game-watching--that we would NOT draft Allen. Someone early in the thread asked why I believed that. I believed it because I was convinced--based on an extremely inadequate research/game-watching--that Buffalo was going to trade up to #1 or #2 for Darnold OR trade up to the #4 to #10 range for Rosen or Mayfield. Mayfield was the guy I wanted exponentially more than any other QB, but I would have been happy with Darnold and would have settled for Rosen. But, based on an extremely inadequate research/game-watching, I loathed the idea of drafting Allen. I truly didn't think Mayfield would go #1 and thought we had a great shot at him. I thought his height and "attitude" would keep him from being drafted #1, so I actually felt pretty confident we'd find a way to get either Darnold or Mayfield. I was just so confident Beane would work magic and get "his guy," and I think he did, but it happened to be a guy I had barely researched/game-watched. Keep in mind, I hate college football. It's weird, but I love the NFL, but find college football annoying. So I barely watch it until draft time comes and I can only see highlights. But just looking at Allen's stats, the team he was on and the competition he played against before looking at some of his highlights, I just thought there was no way in HELL we'd draft him. And I was massively wrong. And he was now the QB for the team I loved. And it made me sick. And so I did what I should have done before the draft. I stayed up the night we drafted him and watched just as much YouTube "gamefilm" along with some background videos on him and read up on him. And that was what changed my mind. Drafting him was what forced me to do what I should have done before the draft. My problem with a lot of the "experts" is that I would've thought they would've done all that prior to the draft themselves considering it's, ya know, their jobs. And now a season has played out where Allen took on the Herculean role of carrying an offense most of the time he was on the field--much like I came to discover pre-draft he did at Wyoming--and several of these guys who had strongly negative opinions before the draft may have changed their opinions (can you direct me to those? Or were you just speculating?), but several clearly haven't: And here's another draft reaction from the Bill Barnwell run Ringer... though this article isn't wrtitten by him: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2018/4/27/17289496/2018-draft-winners-losers-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lamar-jackson-baltimore-ravens The Winners and Losers From Round 1 of the NFL Draft Loser: The Buffalo Bills I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown. There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process. But the Bills didn’t just draft Allen. They traded up to get him, giving up two second-round picks to move up five spots. That’s a massive overpay on any draft value chart. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25518645/nfl-rookie-quarterback-progress-reports-2018-draft-picks-shown-far NFL rookie QB progress reports: What 2018 picks have shown so far Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills Pick: No. 7 | Starts: 8 | Total QBR: 57.1 Bills fans who were frustrated by Tyrod Taylor's low-risk, modest-reward efficiency looked to get the polar opposite when the Bills drafted Allen out of Wyoming. His prototypical arm strength and propensity for attacking teams downfield was supposed to augur a new era for the Bills' offense. Instead, so far, the Bills have witnessed ... a less impressive version of Taylor. The same frustrated fans who were sick of Taylor failing to hit 200 passing yards in a game have seen Allen average 181.6 passing yards in his eight full starts. He is completing just 52.4 percent of his passes while throwing his average pass 10.5 yards in the air. (Over his three years in Buffalo, Taylor completed 62.6 percent of his passes while throwing them an average of 9.0 yards in the air.) Allen has added an unwanted propensity for interceptions, given that his nine picks are nearly as many as the 10 Taylor threw over his final two seasons in Buffalo combined. ... As a passer, though, it's difficult to see any signs of improvement from Allen. His numbers are horrific -- he ranks last among qualifying signal-callers in passer rating (62.8) and QBR on pass attempts (26.8) -- and don't bear any resemblance to the quarterback Allen was supposed to be coming out of college. His deep balls have been scattershot at best; on throws 16 or more yards downfield, his passer rating is 36.2, which is nearly 20 points worse than any other qualifying passer. His Total QBR on those throws is also last in the league.

Absolutely agree with all of this, especially the ridiculousness of people merely pointing to what he did in college without first actually having watched much/any of his college play (which I admit I didn't do until after we drafted him) and especially disregarding how relatively inexperienced he is at the position (multi-sport athlete in High School who didn't attend all those big QB camps like most highly touted rookie QBs have) and how much of a late-bloomer he is. Remember, Allen was a mere 6`3 and 180 lbs late in High School.

Thank you. Again essentially helping to prove the central premise that Allen is NOT inaccurate unless you consider virtually every other highly touted rookie over the last I don't know how many years inaccurate. There are so many interesting stats here I think so many would just be immediately dismissive of, though.

Whatever size window you think it is,--10 feet is just getting ridiculous... I can tell you absolutely that my windows as I watched were smaller than 10 feet and were essentially just the wingspan of the players along with factoring whatever momentum they have moving in whatever direction--your criticism of my method disregards one very important factor: I used the same method for 6 other QBs and Allen threw a higher percentage of catchable passes after excluding Throwaways and Spikes than Mayfield, Jackson, Rosen and the rookie versions of Watson and Wentz. So, if you want to laugh at equating a catchable ball as accurate, fine. But can we call an uncatchable inaccurate? Would there be a single reason to dispute that? And so if we were to say that Allen is very much within the rest of the rookie pack as far as throwing uncatchable passes--which he is--that he is not, therefore, more inaccurate than those other guys? And the very title of my thread stated that Allen is not inaccurate unless the rest of those guys are, too, And yes, the reason I did catchable vs. uncatchable was because it's easily countable. That was the point.

Oh.... my... God... Ummm... yeah. Clearly you know what my thoughts are better than I do. And clearly you know what my thoughts were at the time we drafted Allen better than I do. Clearly you need the last word, even if it's a long winded post with more holes than swiss cheese. I'll let that be the last word on this. but... It's just such a shame you're haughtiness is blinding you so much you legitimately can't recall one time--out of the several there were--that I proved you wrong, and then you ran away never to be seen in that discussion again.

Thurm, I can direct you to the thread of my negative views. You don't need to remind me and I'm not hiding them. You're wrong, though. I know that's hard for you to believe, but you're wrong, as you so often are. Evidence did change my perspective on Allen. And you can actually see that in real time in the link I provided if it goes to page 11. The Bills drafting him only forced me to go look at the evidence out there on him, since I'm a Bills fan and I was so convinced--and I truly was--that we wouldn't draft Allen and hadn't really looked much into him because I was so focused on Baker, Rosen and Darnold primarily, utterly confident we'd draft one of them. We didn't. I was forced to spend more time looking at the evidence for why we would make what I thought at the time was a colossal mistake in drafting Allen. And then the evidence changed my mind. I think it's funny when you address me directly because it seems to be when you're so incredibly confident you can embarrass me about some kind of wrong opinion or incomplete analysis. Then you get proven wrong. Then you turn into Ninja Thurm and disappear rather than admit you were mistaken. It's the Thurm way. Too funny.

Oh absolutely. My pre-draft feelings were certainly reminiscent of many of these negative posts. I'm willing to admit when I'm wrong, though. My pre-draft feelings of Allen--which were based on a very small amount of game-watching and mostly history and analytics--were almost hateful of the thought of picking him. But c'mon now, let's be real here, my responsibility to be thorough in any scouting of him was based on the "I was right!!!" nature of an Internet message board, not to a public paying my salary for my expert opinion. The problem and part of the fun of posting these, of course, is the fact that these guys don't change their opinions easily or willingly, in spite of the facts in front of them. Andy Benoit, for example, called Rosen the most "pro-ready QB by far" at draft time. And then, mid December with plenty of (terrible) film on Rosen and Allen: This is seriously just ridiculous. As someone who actually watched all passes from all QBs, it's downright irresponsible. See, much of the media is a lot like you in that sense, Thurm. They either go radio silence when they're blatantly wrong or they stubbornly cling to misguided opinions and do everything in their power to obfuscate as long as possible. I was wrong in my pre-draft feelings about Allen, bit frankly they were based on a pretty superficial dismissal of the kid. The media, especially guys like Benoit, should be better about this. They have a responsibility to be. It's one of the big reasons I went through every single pass from Allen and 6 other rookie QBs... I wanted to see if the narrative that Allen is somehow so much significantly more raw and inaccurate than other typical highly regarded rookies. He's not.

An article from Buffalo Rumblings... I'll post some gems https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/2/21/18228390/reviewing-what-the-media-had-to-say-about-buffalo-bills-drafting-qb-josh-allen-josh-rosen-2018 The media commentary was a mixed bag, with most feeling Buffalo should have drafted another Josh: Rosen. By John Boccacino Feb 21, 2019, 11:00am EST Mike Rodak, of ESPN had the following to say: From Jerry Sullivan, of The Buffalo News: Sal Maiorana, of the Democrat & Chronicle wasn’t shy when sharing his initial thoughts: Barrett Sallee from CBS Sports was less-than-impressed with the pick. Andy Benoit. SI.com Yahoo! Sports

You convinced me. I'll give it another try. 1st episode just started a little slow and I was around family.

All those shows are good to excellent. I hope Disney picks them up on their streaming site. As of now I'm on the fence about paying for their streaming service when it finally comes out. If those shows were renewed and moved their, I would definitely pay for it.

Boy, don't read the entire thread, but at least read the OP rather than just the title I don't care about college careers. Allen is an NFL QB now, and now he's pretty much as accurate--if not more in a couple cases--than all the other 2019 rookie QBs along with the ROOKIE VERSIONS (I explain why I do this in the OP... go read it) of Watson and Wentz. BigDingus.

Well,I haven't looked at all QBs in the NFL, so I can't give any feedback with regard to the other NFL QBs, but it doesn't surprise me that Allen is ahead of Rosen and Jackson.

First of all, of course some of the accuracy issues can be pinned on Allen, just as they can be with absolutely any other QB in the NFL. I don't have a big gripe with their number considering I had a number of 21.9%. Less than 2% of a difference is no biggie to me. Completely disagree with the "league high" comment. I actually think that's irresponsible of them, especially since there seems to be a general lack of transparency as I click that link and find no path to where the other QBs rank. Blindly trust that lack of transparency if you want. Or cross-check the numbers like I suggested. I've rewatched Allen 3 times now. I decided to cross-check my numbers rather than start on Dak. I feel good about my numbers for all QBs I've listed.

Now you're just being obstinate. The way I determined catchable vs. uncatchable was by watching the play and seeing if the ball hits or could reasonably hit the palm of one of the WR's outstretched hands. If it could, I labelled it catchable because you see guys make one-handed catches all the time. If a guy doesn't turn his head for the pass and therefore doesn't stretch his hands out or if he falls while the ball is mid-air, then I admittedly had to make judgment calls, which is part of the reason I was hoping extreme skeptics like you would give this a try. If the ball, instead, hits a WR's outstretched fingertips, it was labelled uncatchable. There were judgment calls on my part, for sure, but a lot fewer than you'd think and those judgment calls are usually relatively easy to make.

Did someone hijack Thurm's account? Doesn't sound like the usually thoughtful--albeit occasionally acerbic and sarcastic--poster I've come to know and love over the years. Mother time is giving out a beating, perhaps?

Very well said

Why? That sounds like a perception thing more than anything, to me. This would be for a different analysis that I'm just not going to do, but if, hypothetically, my comparison between Allen and the rookies were changed to Allen and all NFL QBs and it yielded the same results--again, not saying that it would, just speaking hypothetically--finding that Allen throws pretty much the same percentage of catchable passes as all QBs across the NFL, then why would it matter that some of his misses were more wild and off target than other QBs and why would it prevent him from being a bona fide Franchise QB, despite throwing with pretty much the same accuracy? Can't surf all the time. My alabaster skin wouldn't be able to handle it. Don't worry, I live the Hawaiian life very well

Those bastards. I really hope the Disney streaming service picks them up.

Fantastic post and observations Gunner! And I think I mention this in the OP, but I'll say it here again. Of all the 2019 rookies, Allen is definitely the one who threw the most wildly head-scratchingly inaccurate throws. But there really just weren't many of those, and all the other QBs had their fair share of them. And after going through Wentz, I actually think Wentz had as high a percentage of those wildly head-scratchingly inaccurate throws as Allen. But as I said before, does it matter if those throws happen if they're very infrequent and the vast majority of the rest of the time you're throwing a pass that can/should be caught?

Is this good? I started it with the wife and in-laws, but we were all a little distracted and only made it like 20 minutes in. I know that's not enough time to give to a show, but it wasn't grabbing my attention at that point. It gets good? Thor Ragnorok was the one Marvel movie I can almost say I disliked. It was completely tone deaf from the Thor character and the previous Thor movies. Such a pity 'cause Cate Blanchett was her usual awesome and supremely sexy self.

I'm looking forward especially to that Loki show, but I seriously hope Disney/Marvel and Netflix resolve whatever issues they need to in order to get all the Marvel shows that were on Netflix over to that streaming site. Daredevil and The Punisher were, by far, my favorite shows on Netflix outside of Stranger Things.