transplantbillsfan

Yep. Exactly what I'm hoping happens. Did you read? I absolutely still want him to run. I did not say I want Allen to stop running. Try reading what I said in the OP again.

Trade down and TE and OT in the first...? One can dream...

That's exactly what I mean. When a QB scrambles, he has a lot more control over whether he gets hit or not. Designed runs, not so much. He should be free to leave the pocket and scramble whenever he wants. He seems to have a good enough pocket presence that I think he can be trusted to scramble when he sees fit.

This was one of my biggest takeaways. Along with Allen's inaccuracy, there's a kinda sub-narrative that Allen is reckless with the football. That he's Favre-like. I saw the opposite. Allen is very careful with the football, but not so careful that he's unwilling to let it rip the way Taylor often was. But when Allen does throw it, he's throwing it (usually) to places where it'll either be caught or not. And again, you can cherry pick and go find examples where he doesn't do that, but my "batted/tipped balls" category wasn't just balls batted at the line, they were passes batted away before getting to the WR. I'm sure part of it is also his height and delivery, but watching Allen throw only TWO passes that were batted/tipped was really surprising. If any QB was Favre-like, it was Darnold, who was constantly getting balls batted down on the way to the WR, which is part of the reason Darnold had, by far, the highest percentage of Interceptable passes among all the 7 rookies I've looked at so far.

with the exception ONLY of short yardage 3rd/4th down or goal line instances. Although there's so much of a "Carolina connection" going here between Buffalo and the Panthers, one of the things I really hope to see McDermott and Daboll do opposite from Carolina is designed QB runs. Cam Newton in Carolina has gained the vast majority of his rushing yards on the ground in designed running situations. He's also the shell of his former physical self and he's not even 30 yet. The guy is going into the age considered "prime" for NFL QBs and he might already be over-the-hill. Designed QB runs like Read Options just ask for your QB to take hits. They're almost inevitable in these cases. But regardless, at least as far as the Josh Allen led Buffalo Bills of 2018 are concerned, they weren't effective at all unless we're talking those short yardage instances I mentioned at the top. Josh Allen 2018 Designed Run stats 2.9 Yards Per Carry (38 Designed Runs, 112 yards, 3 TDs) Before you assume I'm saying Allen shouldn't run or Daboll should make sure he never runs, I'm not saying that. Allen should still be encouraged to run in the context of passing plays when they call for it. When pressure comes quickly or his WRs/TEs/RBs are blanketed or there's just a wide open running lane for him, he should run and avoid big hits by sliding or running out of bounds. He got much smarter with his running last year in terms of taking those unnecessary hits. He shouldn't always be scrambling, but if Allen gains 400-500 +/- yards through a 16 game season with his legs through scrambling, I think that's a good supplement to our offense. Besides, in 2018, Allen was so amazing running on designed passing plays that he gained significantly more on average than he would have just staying in the pocket passing the football: Josh Allen 2018 Scramble stats 11.7 Yards Per Carry (45 scrambles, 525 yards, 5 TDs) (Those of you scratching your heads wondering why those numbers don't add up to his run totals on the year, it's because I discarded the 6 kneeldowns and -6 rushing yards from those kneeldowns he had in the Jags game, Detroit game, and 2nd Miami game. Also, I had posted some numbers on here before that were different because I just realized today that I hadn't gone through the last game of the season, yet, where Allen scrambled 5 times for 103 yards and 1 TD.) So even though the NFL seems to be bringing the Read-Option back and Allen is a serious running threat, using him intentionally as part of our designed running game is just a bad idea, so let's hope Daboll doesn't go that route.

YPC broken down in 1st 6 starts vs. last 6 starts on scrambles alone. 1st 6 starts: 6.6 YPC (18 scrambles for 119 yards, 5 1st downs, 3/5 on 3rd down scrambles, 2 TDs) 2nd 6 starts: 15 YPC (27 scrambles for 406 yards, 13 1st downs, 4/7 on 3rd down scrambles, 3 TDs) Seriously...

Very well said

The best thing in there is when Dilfer specifically says that accuracy is, more than anything else, an "offensive system metric" and a "processing metric." Nailed it!

Me too

I watched Rosen and must admit I was surprised how mediocre he looked in terms of everything considering he was advertised as the most pro-ready guy. I actually think Fahey's statements there are a bit ridiculous. Rosen can throw. Fahey grows enamored with certain QBs and that ends up weirdly clouding his judgment on other QBs. That said, Rosen was the most inaccurate of all the other QBs I've watched. But honestly, I don't think it's fair to even throw Rosen out the window. Wentz in his rookie year threw significantly more than any of the other rookies this year, and if you throw out Wentz's first 4 games in his rookie year where he had one of the hottest starts you'll probably ever see out of a rookie, just look at the insane difference between his first 4 games vs. his last 12: 1st 4 games Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 85.4% Last 12 games Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 77.6% 1st 4 games Throwaway/Spike %: 2.3% Last 12 games Throwaway/Spike %: 3% 1st 4 games Interceptable Pass %: 6.6% Last 12 games Interceptable Pass %: 6% 1st 4 games Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 90.2% Last 12 games Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 78.9%

I'll move onto Dak, next. Considering he had a nearly 68% completion %, I'm wondering how much help his WRs were to him. I think we already know his OL was a tremendous help.

So I just finished Wentz and put him in the original numbers. Geez he was really great for the 1st 5 games and then close to Rosen level, maybe even worse, after that point. I'm really in disbelief at how many batted/tipped balls I'm seeing from all QBs not named Allen. Is Allen really that much taller than all these other guys? We know his arm is stronger so it gives DBs less opportunity to go after it mid-flight, but it's kinda crazy the amount of tipped/batted balls I'm seeing with all these other QBs. I guess I just assumed with Wentz's comparative size and athleticism to Allen, we'd see that number closer to Allen's number.

Yes, I guess Josh has both those problems

I guess Josh maybe does have an accuracy problem

I remember that day vividly. I was leaving work because I knew the Bills weren't up yet, then I got in my car and heard the Bills had traded up to #4. As Goodell stated the pick, I was so excited because the Bills were going to pick the local UB product Khalil Mack... and then Sammy glass Watkins was announced

I think Gunner was solely referring to the apparent improved play and corresponding increased production and efficiency in year 2, not style of play.

He played High School at an unrecognizable rural school, at a JuCo and then at Wyoming devoid of talent. I'm sorry, he played his 1st year with a Center and RB drafted in the back half of the draft and a WR who made the Bears as a UDFA. But ultimately after we drafted Allen and you really go back and watch him, his low completion percentage was a combination of the talent around him and him trying to play Hero Ball with plays breaking down along with some lower body mechanical problems, which he improved on tremendously working with Palmer and will hopefully improve even more this offseason. Regardless, I don't care about how accurate he was in college because it's not relevant at this point. At this point he's pretty much as accurate as 6 other notable 1st round rookie QBs who've come into the NFL in the last 3 years, and we should all be encouraged by what he's shown, despite his completion percentage not reflecting that accuracy. I can ignore past data because it's irrelevant at this point and I thoroughly looked at what's relevant. Have you chosen to do that, yet, rather than screaming from a mountaintop, "But, but his completion percentage!!!"? Allen does need to prove it on the field. I don't know what the exact completion percentage number is he's gotta reach as a benchmark. Might be 60%. Or 62%. Or 58%. Or 64%. Part of all that is also really how far he's throwing downfield because downfield throws are lower percentage throws. And gee, guess which QB in the NFL threw downfield more than any other QB in the NFL, as reflected in having the highest Air Yards per Attempt? I'll give you a hint, he played for the Bills in 2018 at QB and it wasn't Peterman, Barkley or Anderson...

I'm now 13 games into Wentz, who's really like doing Allen's because he has pretty much twice the pass attempts in his rookie year as Allen. Just under 500 pass attempts in: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 77.6% Throwaway/Spike %: 2.3% Interceptable Pass %: 6.6% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 82.4% I'm moving at more of a snail's pace because Wentz has so many passes, so I'm going to update the OP with these 13 games now and then I'll do it again when I'm done with Wentz, which should be this week. Who should I do next? Dak? Winston? Luck? Wilson?

Ummm... No Can you count? The first article was written November 24th of the 2017 season after Long was placed on IR after he had been dealing with an injury for a few weeks. He started the first 6 games, though (last one on 10/23) and still played a bit after that. That was what that first article referred to when it said he was the 10th best pass blocking center in the NFL. Then he was signed by the Jets, where he also got injured. I think it's quite possible this guy could be our new starting center and that's actually not a bad thing at all.

Why are people so quick to hate this signing? I think you just throw away much of his awful play due to his hand injury. Gotta hope and assume that's healed. I just don't know much about the guy and it's hard to assess OL for other teams, anyway, but when I see the rather striking nearly $28 million he signed for last year along with tidbits from his previous years like: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-washingtons-c-spencer-long-and-g-shawn-lauvao-both-placed-on-ir In terms of numbers, Long had actually been the team’s best performer in pass protection this year, and has allowed just five total pressures on his 223 pass-blocking snaps, for a pass-blocking efficiency of 98.2, the 10th best mark among centers. ... https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-c-spencer-long-expected-to-miss-the-next-two-weeks Long finished 2016 ranked 29th out of 72 qualified centers with a 69.6 overall grade. He struggled as a run blocker last year, earning a run blocking grade of just 54.0 (the 11th lowest in the league); however, he performed well in pass protection, ranking ninth with an 82.6 pass blocking grade. Long has been clean in pass protection so far this preseason but run blocking continues to be an issue, evident by his 41.7 run blocking grade against the Green Bay Packer. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/season-grades-for-the-washington-redskins-offensive-line-010817%3famp=true Spencer Long At the midseason point, I was very impressed with Spencer Long. After all, he had just come into the starting lineup in Week 3 to strengthen the team’s weakness at center. In our midseason grades, I said the following of Long: All of that rings true to the end of the season. Long has continued to play well, though he was slowed down by a concussion at the close of the season. He has earned the right to be the team’s starting center moving forward, and definitely should be a solid player moving forward. Long’s Season Grade: B This looks like a decent signing to me. Curious if he's a Guard or Center for us, but I think he's an upgrade on either Miller or Bodine. Everyone gets that we're gonna have to go for some guys like this who had down years last year but have strong starting potential, right? Can't have a pro bowler at every position.

Yes, well that's exactly the point though, right? We need perfect passes to be caught rather than lost in the Sun as Foster did, or batted high into the air and intercepted as Holmes did, or go directly through the outstretched hands of a well covered Logan Thomas in the End Zone, or... I think that 172 yards passing yards per game would have been well over 200 if our WRs caught even half of these passes ...and even with the 35 passes in there, you still don't see other blatant drops like the Holmes one in the Titans game that he dropped right into a defender's arms for an INT.

Yes, but 173 yards passing per game just won't do.