transplantbillsfan

In watching Rosen I never thought he didn't belong. Again part of the findings for me in this exercise is that all the rookies look promising, except Jackson who's too much of a gimmick with an awkward delivery. But all of them have accuracy problems if Allen does. And I still think Fitz has gas in his tank. Not dead yet.

Man... someone sounds jealous. Shady, do you have naughty dreams about 26CB involving him tied to a table with an apple in his mouth and you with a whip... and leather everywhere???

At least PFF acknowledges the serious issue with the dropsies our WRs had https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/08/buffalo-bills-top-10-drops-dropped-passes-josh-allen-kelvin-benjamin-zay-jones/ 9th highest drop % in the league, according to them.

10 games now into Wentz's rookie season: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 79.3% Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2% Interceptable Pass %: 6.3% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 83.6%

You're right--though I think another argument to be made is that Allen doesn't have to be a 60+% passer simply because of what he does with his legs. But that's the other part of the point here. Does the evidence suggest Allen's completion % is a reflection of his accuracy or does it suggest it's a reflection of his supporting cast, among other things? If I were finding right now Allen's low completion % were a reflection of his accuracy, I think we'd all have a lot to worry about because I really don't think accuracy can be fixed to the point where you can turn a really inaccurate passer into a really accurate passer. But that's not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing a QB who's throwing the ball where he wants it to go and a lot of WRs/TEs/RBs who aren't coming up with the football. And so I expect Allen's completion % to go up into the low 60s in the next year or 2 if Beane honestly goes about these next 2 offseasons as he claimed he would in surrounding Allen with talent.

I wasn't doing the work to justify his low completion percentage. I did the work to see how truly "inaccurate" Allen is in comparison with other rookies. Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold have completion %s this year in the mid 50s, but there's not this widespread "he's inaccurate!!!" narrative with them.

I don't care if it'll always be questioned. Climate change is still being questioned. Evolution is still being questioned. It's almost impossible to convince EVERYONE of just about anything, even if there's overwhelming evidence one way or another. There are people with low completion %s because they're inaccurate and there are people with low completion %s due in larger part to other factors. I care if he's accurate or not. If his low completion % is due in large part to other factors rather than accuracy, his completion % will increase significantly once those other factors are resolved.

It's too bad you're so ridiculously biased you can't even have a reasonable conversation about accuracy. Come back when you can do that.... and you should probably stop cheating on your girlfriend. That's vile and disgusting. Just break up with her.

And in that game he threw 11 catchable passes, 5 uncatchable passes, 2 throwaways and had 1 pass batted/tipped. That Interception was the 1 incompletion that should have been a catch. It was to Andre Holmes and pretty much hit him right between the hands and bounced high into the air. And if it didn't hit him in the hands, it pretty much would have embedded itself into his helmet. That's how on-target that pass that counted not just as an incompletion but also as an interception was, and it's actually the perfect example of why maybe you should try this exercise rather than just pointing out stats, so thank you.

The last game I watched of Wentz was maybe the worst game I saw from any of the rookies I saw accuracy-wise. He was for sure in what I charted as that game he had the biggest number of uncatchable passes and the highest percentage of uncatchable passes over the other rookies, but I'm talking anecdotally. I'm talking about just how wildly off-target he was in that game. He looked worse in that game than Allen looked in any game he played. Whatever conclusions you may think I want, I chose to do this very simple uncatchable vs. catchable (ball hits--or can hit--palm of hand = Catchable vs ball doesn't hit--or can't hit--palm of hand = Uncatchable) because It severely diminishes any subjectivity in the matter.

Well, doesn't really save me the work because I'm trying to place these guys on a scale in context of each other. As of right now Wentz is ranked #1. If what you say is true I wonder how much his numbers fall. After him I think I'm gonna do the Golden Boy: Andrew Luck.

Good. I hope they get it. He is literally the ONLY significant contributor on our D this past year who is a UFA. Maintaining our D this coming year would be huge. I think our O takes steps forward... big steps. If our D is still as good, we're golden. But gotta start working on extending Hughes relatively quickly, too. We can't let him walk.

I'm halfway through Wentz's rookie season. He played all 16 games, so I'm through 8 games and 275 pass attempts... which is just 45 less than Allen attempted this year: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 80.7% Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2% Interceptable Pass %: 5.9% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 84.4% And yes, his numbers are dropping off for good reason... he got significantly less accurate after his strong start. His week 9 game vs the Giants is one of the worst I saw from any of the rookies. He had 13 uncatchable passes. That's the highest number I charted in any of the games. Granted, he threw 47 passes, but those passes were the types of head-scratchers I'm sure the national media points to when they think of Allen. Let's see what Wentz's 2nd half of the season brings...

I'm excited about him. But I was also excited about Da'Rick Rogers.

5 games through Wentz's rookie season: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 83.6% Throwaway/Spike %: 3.2% Interceptable Pass %: 5.3% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 88.2% 1st 5 games resemble the strong start I remembered for Wentz in his rookie year.

My thoughts are we could cut all our TEs and replace them with just about anyone and I wouldn't be upset.

One of the most awkward players I've ever seen with the ball in his hands... not a clue who thought he was some kind of hybrid athletic RAC guy, but he's not. The other problem, of course, is getting it in h8s hands. More drops than any other Bills player I think I've ever seen.

Wow, what a moron.

Ummm... aren't 3 picks missing?

Good one! Everything all right there, pal? Last couple years you've just been getting more and more bitter.

Doing Carson Wentz right now. Looking pretty good just a couple games in. He was really given the reins of the offense, that's for sure. Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 79.4% Throwaway/Spike %: 4.2% Interceptable Pass %: 7.4% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 88.5% Wentz is getting a lot of balls batted and tipped; both at the line and en route to the WR.

https://theathletic.com/793402/2019/02/04/the-athletics-nfl-super-bowl-era-franchise-rankings/ Tier One — The Heavyweights 1. Pittsburgh Steelers Last year: No. 1 Total: 114 points The Steelers passed Dallas to vault into first place a few years ago themselves, but now they find their lead completely erased to a single point over the hard-charging Patriots. Yes, they are in first place, but only barely. The Steelers are the most successful team that has accomplished something of note in every decade and have therefore been a worthy leader for some time. They hold the slimmest lead possible over the Patriots by virtue of having been to five more playoffs and one more championship game. Now we will see if New England has another run in them to go first all-time. Until then, the football world continues to chase this fine franchise from Pittsburgh who missed the playoffs this year, but has been in the mix annually for almost as long as the Super Bowl era has existed. Total playoff years: 72C, 73, 74S, 75S, 76C, 77, 78S, 79S, 82, 83, 84C, 89, 92, 93, 94C, 95SL, 96, 97C, 01C, 02, 04C, 05S, 07, 08S, 10SL, 11, 14, 15, 16C, 17 Playoff years: 30 | Final Fours: 8 | Super Bowl losses: 2 | Super Bowl wins: 6 Average: 2.15 points per season 2. New England Patriots Last year: No. 3 Total: 113 points The Patriots made Super Bowl 31 in the final year of Bill Parcells’ tenure and then had two playoff berths with Pete Carroll. That meant that they ended the previous millennium sitting on 17 points and in the NFL’s bottom third. Their surge since is obviously absurd and the most dominant two-decade stretch in NFL history. Thirteen Final Fours, nine Super Bowls, and six Lombardi Trophies boost their point total by 96 with Brady/Belichick, which matches the entire 53 years of the San Francisco 49ers; and they sit fourth all time! It’s hard to believe, but also hard to deny. We’ve never seen anything like the Patriots and we likely never will again. Passing Dallas on Sunday, they now sit just one point back after sitting near the bottom of the league when I started doing this 19 years ago. Total playoff years: 76, 78, 82, 85SL, 86, 94, 96SL, 97, 98, 01S, 03S, 04S, 05, 06C, 07SL, 09, 10, 11SL, 12C, 13C, 14S, 15C, 16S, 17SL, 18S Playoff years: 25 | Final Fours: 4 | Super Bowl losses: 5 | Super Bowl wins: 6 Average: 2.13 points per season Tier Two — The Light Heavyweights Tier Three -- The Middleweights Tier Four — The Welterweights Bears win tiebreaker over Bills based on Super Bowl wins, 1-0. 19. Buffalo Bills Last year: No. 17 Total: 35 points The Bills returned to the playoffs in 2017 for the first time since the turn of the century. The are famously known for winning four consecutive AFC championship games and then losing each Super Bowl in painful succession. As any Buffalo fan will tell you, only a great team can lose four straight Super Bowls, but that doesn’t heal the wound much. Since that final Super Bowl loss at SB28, they have spent the last 25 years quietly. They actually drop two spots this season as the Ravens and Bears have jumped them. Total playoff years: 66C, 74, 80, 81, 88C, 89, 90SL, 91SL, 92SL, 93SL, 95, 96, 98, 99, 17 Playoff years: 15 | Final Fours: 2 | Super Bowl losses: 4 | Super Bowl wins: 0 Average: 0.66 points per season Tier Five — The Lightweights Tier Six -- The Featherweights

See in week 16 I saw 9 Incompletions that I thought were catchable. I actually made a note saying "maybe 8." On one of those passes a WR slipped. I saw 9 uncatchable in that game, but one of those appears to be a back shoulder throw that Zay doesn't turn around for. I saw 3 Throwaways, but one of those people might gripe with because it was the one with Allen escaping an inevitable safety in the EZ and flipping it to the sidelines. There was an RB (?) In the area but it looked to me like he was getting rid of the ball. My week 17 numbers look similar to yours--I see you also account for 2 Throwaways--but I thought one of his Incompletions was catchable.

Considering I came up with 78.1% overall for Catchable passes on the season, I'd say your 78% is pretty damn well in line with what I saw. And your anecdotal breakdowns of each game are great. Good stuff!

Hey, she never used our safe word