racketmaster

91 as he said he wants 9+1 =10

I'd be surprised if we went TE in the first. Hockenson is going to be a very good TE and would be a good fit in Buffalo but I just don't see him as a special talent. The TE class is super deep this year and it is a position that teams regularly find excellent talents in the middle rounds. Here are my top reasons against TE in the first for the Bills. 1. People are sleeping on Tyler Croft. The Bills signed him quickly in free agency and he appeared to be high on their target list. He got a decent contract and when he got the starting spot in 2017 he was a productive tight end for the Bengals. I believe Croft is still only 25 years old and we may not have seen his best football yet. I do believe the Bills need to draft a tight end this year, but I don't think it is as big a need as some would have us believe. 2. The tight end class this year is very deep. It begins with Hockenson and his teammate Fant but there are at least 10-12 talented prospects at this position. A player like Trevon Wesco can be had in the 5th or 6th and if you watch his blocking ability (excellent) and how nimble he is with the ball in his hands he has some potential. There are a lot of interesting tight end prospects in the middle rounds from Jayce Sternberger to Kaden Smith. Many of these players show excellent potential and have had excellent college production. If the Bills wait, they can still find a good prospect in the middle rounds. George Kittle was an afterthought in the 2017 draft (5th round) as he had little production at Iowa and we have seen how he has exploded in the NFL. 3. If you examine the quality and elite tight ends playing in the league right now, you will notice that the majority of them come from the 2nd and 3rd rounds. In fact, when I looked at the numbers more came from the 2nd (30%) and 3rd (30%) than the 1st round (20%). And with the depth this year at the position I see no reason to think this trend won't continue. Hockenson may be the safest tight end pick, but can anyone really say that he will be better than a player like Jayce Sternberger. To me it is too close and for that reason I would wait at the position and draft for value beginning in the second round. And with the depth this year, I think there will be a productive player or two found in the 4th and 5th rounds.

Maxx Crosby could be a very real possibility, especially if the Bills don't take a DL in the first round. I like Crosby very much and he was one of the pre-draft visits so he is definitely on the radar.

It would be a great match and it would be nice to add some speed and explosion at that position next year.

I'm beginning to think the Bills might actually draft DK Metcalf at 9. I think they would have liked an interior defensive lineman or edge rusher like Williams, Bosa, Allen or Oliver but they are all likely to be gone by pick 9. Sweat appears to be falling due to heart condition and I think Burns is the better edge rusher anyway but I have a feeling that Metcalf ends up being the selection over Jonah Williams. If we learned anything from last year it is that Beane likes ultra talented, big, physical, athletic freaks at the top of the draft. Both Allen and Edmunds were considered raw athletic freaks for their respective positions. DK Metcalf fits that profile and he might be a perfect match with Allen at QB. Beane and McDermott have seen up close what Julio Jones can do to opposing defenses and Metcalf is that type of athletic freak. Beane is also not shy about taking on players that have some injury risk (ie. Mitch Morse). For my second pick I see the Bills drafting Bryce Love in the 4th round. This seems to be a very good match as the Bills could afford to red shirt him for a year. After that year, McCoy and Gore will likely be gone and Love can step right in with Yeldon and whomever else they decide to be a 3rd rb (maybe McCoy or Gore return for 1 more year).

Burns is definitely one of the top edge rushers in this class. I'm a big fan and would have no issues with the pick. He is long, flexible, smooth, fast, athletic and has an array of pass rush moves.

If I had to choose one over the other I would choose best player available because if you start reaching for need then in all likelihood you as a GM will be back at the draft in a year or two looking to fill that same position because you reached and missed. In reality, BPA and need are both factored into a GM's draft plan or at least they should be. If you just go strictly BPA and end up drafting 6 offensive lineman because they were the highest rated players on your board and your team already has 4 of 5 spots locked down by young lineman, that would not be a good plan. Conversely, if you had a need for lineman and reached for the position by taking 6 of them in the draft, that also would not make sense as you were passing up more talented players at other positions just to try and fill a need with lesser rated players. A good GM will have drafted well in the past and filled most of their holes in free agency so that there is not a glaring need at a position. In rounds 1 and 2, acquiring highly talented players is the key so BPA takes priority over need. But even then a good GM has a plan and will try and get the BPA at a position they have some need for at the top of the draft. It may require the GM moving up or down the draft board in order to draft the best player at a position your team could use. As the draft moves into the middle rounds drafting for need becomes more of a factor. Again, you should never be passing over 20 players on your board to take the 21st at a position of need but in the later rounds players are going to be closely grouped together and there will be negligible differences between them. If your team is absolutely stacked at the LB position it would make sense to avoid that position to draft other spots where the player has a better chance at making your team and contributing on the field.

I don't believe Hockenson will be drafted at 9 but if he is selected the Bills could certanly do worse. Hockenson is one of the safest players in the draft and he should have a long and productive career, barring injury. But I just don't see the value in picking Hockenson at 9 for the following reasons: 1. People are sleeping on Tyler Croft. The Bills signed him quickly in free agency and he appeared to be high on their target list. He got a decent contract and when he got the starting spot in 2017 he was a productive tight end for the Bengals. I believe Croft is still only 25 years old and we may not have seen his best football yet. I do believe the Bills need to draft a tight end this year, but I don't think it is as big a need as some would have us believe. 2. The tight end class this year is very deep. It begins with Hockenson and his teammate Fant but there are at least 10-12 interesting prospects at this position. A player like Trevon Wesco can be had in the 5th and if you watch his blocking ability (excellent) and how nimble he is with the ball in his hands he has some potential. There are a lot of interesting tight end prospects in the middle rounds from Jayce Sternberger to Kaden Smith. Many of these players show excellent potential and have had excellent college production. If the Bills wait, they can still find a good prospect in the middle rounds. 3. If you examine the quality and elite tight ends playing in the league right now, you will notice that the majority of them come from the 2nd and 3rd rounds. In fact, when I looked at the numbers more came from the 2nd (30%) and 3rd (30%) than the 1st round (20%). And with the depth this year at the position I see no reason to think this trend won't continue. Hockenson may be the safest tight end pick, but can anyone really say that he will be better than a player like Jayce Sternberger. To me it is too close and for that reason I would wait at the position and draft for value beginning in the second round. And with the depth this year, I think there will be a productive player or two found in the 4th and 5th rounds.

I’d love the second scenario where we draft Oliver/Sweat but trade back up for AJ Brown. Bills would add 2 immediate impacts on both sides of the ball.

I like Clark as a player and he is entering his prime but I generally don’t like the idea of trading assets for a player and then also having to sign that player to a huge contract. Clark in his current contract is a great deal, but Clark making 18-20 mil per year is not a great deal. It is hard for any non qb to be a value making that type of money. What are the odds Clark outperforms the mega contract? Slim chance as it is much more likely he underperforms the contract. Plus, Beane would be handing that mega $ to a player outside the organization and who knows how that plays in the locker room. It’s probably a better idea to reserve the mega contracts to signing your own guys, like Tre White. And the Bills would still have to give up a quality asset (1st or 2nd). That type of asset is likely to be a very good player on a very cheap contract. This type of trade should only be reserved for an aging team that is already a contender and you are trying to squeeze out another championship run.

Brown is my top wr as well. He is versatile in that he can play both inside and out. He has been so productive in a conference that plays defense and he just seems like a wr that will hit the ground running at the NFL level. I'd like to see the Bills trade back up into the first (somewhere in the 20's) to get him.

AJ Brown (would have to trade up into back half of first round to get him) JJ Arcega-Whiteside (2nd round maybe a trade down) Brown offers more versatility while JJ would provide jump ball/red zone production. Either WR should be productive right away.

With the depth and the history of the tight end position a team would be wiser to wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to grab a tight end. The numbers show that more quality and elite tight ends are found in rounds 2 and 3 than they are in round 1. Especially with the depth this year there will be a few quality tight ends found in 2-3. We have a desperate need for a pass rusher and you can get that in round 1 and still get a tight end in round 3 if you want. Plus, we signed Croft who is an underrated tight end prospect and should be an upgrade for us.

If anything I’d compare AJ Brown to Antonio Brown. Green is taller and leaner. He is more of a long strider with his height and more graceful route runner. With AJ Brown he is versatile like Antonio in that he can play inside and out. AJ is a little bigger and thicker than Antonio so he has a little less burst and shake to him. However, they both track the ball well and for shorter WRs make contested catches on the outside with their ability to track and position themselves and their excellent body control. They have excellent run after catch ability and they can turn short wr screens into chunk plays. DJ Moore is another player comp that comes to mind when I see AJ Brown play. I just really like him as a playmaker and think he could be a great fit in our offense.

I’d really like the Bills to find their way to AJ Brown even if it means trading back up into the back half of the first round. I think he will be a plug and play wr and a playmaker that our offense could use. His versatility to play multiple wr spots should also be appealing to Daboll. To me Brown is the best wr in the draft and the only wr I would take in the first round. there are some others I like in the second but if Beane could find the right trading partner I’d be really happy to land Oliver/Sweat and AJ Brown. That would be a homerun.

But I thought culture did not matter lol

We are in pretty good shape with McDermott. He is 15-17 the past 2 years with a below average roster. There have been points in the last 2 years where it was commonly thought that the Bills had one of the worst rosters in the NFL, yet McDermott has managed to keep the team competitive. I’m very interested to see how he does with an upgrade in talent and an emerging qb.

Bills already focused on the offensive side of the ball with free agency. At this point I'd be absolutely shocked if the first pick were not on a defensive player (specifically a defensive lineman). There is a significant need for defensive line help, especially pass rushers. After round 1 all bets are off and I think they go best available player. That may be a wr that falls or it could be another defensive lineman. In the middle rounds we could draft a tight end (very deep class) and a rb.

I started the draft season a big fan of hockenson and even starts to think it might not be a bad pick at 9. The more research I did, the more I have come to agree with you in that first round tight ends (especially top 10 pick) are not good value. Look at some of the recent quality tight ends drafted after round 1. TEs taken in rounds after the first: Rob Gronkowski (2nd) Travis Kelce (3rd) Zach Ertz (2nd) George Kittle (5th) Jared Cook (3rd) Austin Hooper (3rd) Jimmy Graham (3rd) Kyle Rudolph (2nd) Vance McDonald (2nd) Jordan Reed (3rd) Jason Witten (3rd) Hunter Henry (2nd) Delanie Walker (6th) Cameron Brate (UDFA) Charles Clay (6th) Jesse James (5th) Trey Burton (UDFA) Chris Herndon (4th) Mark Andrews (4th) CJ Uzomah (5th) Ian Thomas (4th) Antonio Gates (UDFA) *Tyler Kroft (3rd)  These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top 10 unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office to find that player. Not to mention we already signed Croft who is a bit underrated and will be an upgrade over what Clay was last year.

I agree with you that many of the recent 1st round TEs have been productive players and probably worth taking in the first round. But look at some of the TEs taken in rounds after the first: Rob Gronkowski (2nd) Travis Kelce (3rd) Zach Ertz (2nd) George Kittle (5th) Jared Cook (3rd) Austin Hooper (3rd) Jimmy Graham (3rd) Kyle Rudolph (2nd) Vance McDonald (2nd) Jordan Reed (3rd) Jason Witten (3rd) Hunter Henry (2nd) Delanie Walker (6th) Cameron Brate (UDFA) Charles Clay (6th) Jesse James (5th) Trey Burton (UDFA) Chris Herndon (4th) Mark Andrews (4th) CJ Uzomah (5th) Ian Thomas (4th) Antonio Gates (UDFA) *Tyler Kroft (3rd) These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top tight, unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office and their ability to locate a talented player in the middle rounds.

2 recent clues that the Bills may be more interested in finding an interior pass rusher: At the owner’s meetings McDermott's response to the impact Short had in Carolina for his team is one to remember distinctly should the Bills stand pat at ninth overall: "Yeah that's big. That's really big. To be able to get pressure from the inside... you know, people would argue that there's ways to take away the edge rusher more than there is ways to take away the inside, the interior rusher, and I would probably agree. The ability to pressure an effective quarterback from the inside out is critical when you want to play good football on defense. So, you've got to make sure that you've got enough of those guys." The Bills only have Phillips on a 1 year contract at this position and could really use some help there. McDermott values the three-technique defensive tackle role in his defense and there will be some available at the top of the draft (Williams, Oliver, Wilkins). Brandon Beane has spent time this week talking about the importance of winning your own division and thus paying most attention to the divisional opponents, especially the Patriots. Defensively, how have teams generally slowed down or disrupted the Patriots offense. It comes from getting pressure on Brady and generally from the interior. With edge rushers Brady has a better chance of stepping up in the pocket and deliver his quick strikes in 2 seconds or less. But interior pressure, can stop Brady from stepping up and disrupt the timing of his quick game. Finding an interior rusher like an Ed Oliver might be more valuable to the Bills because they are trying first and foremost to match up with the Patriots.

I was fully on board with Hockenson at 9 early in the draft season but have changed my mind as the draft process has progressed. I really like Hockenson as a player and believe he would be an excellent fit in Buffalo. Injuries aside, Hockenson has little chance of busting due to his talent and work ethic. At the very least he will become a solid blocking and receiving tight end. But is that the best decision at 9. I now feel that the Bills could get better value out of that slot by taking a defensive lineman. The DL is highly rated this year and is a more valued position than tight end. Even though there is depth at DL this year, it generally is harder to find talented edge and interior linemen in the middle rounds. Conversely, history shows that year after year quality tight ends are being drafted in the middle rounds. In fact, there are more quality tight ends being drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds than in the first. Having looked at the numbers it seems to make sense to take DL (a real position of need) over a tight end (somewhat of a need after the signing of Croft and development of Croom). Tight end is also deep this year and there will be quality tight ends available in the middle rounds. Bills need to wait on TE and trust that they can identify and target one of those middle round TEs. That would be the best way to maximize value and I strongly believe the Bills are going DL at pick 9. A easier way to look at it would be top end comparisons: Let's say Hockenson's high end is Travis Kelce. But let's say the high end comparison for Ed Oliver is Aaron Donald. Who would you rather have at a cost controlled 5 year contract, Aaron Donald or Travis Kelce? To me the answer is Donald and that is one of the main reasons I would prefer the Bills draft a DL like Ed Oliver over at TE Hockenson at 9. We could stll come back in round 4 and draft a Kaden Smith at TE who could end up being a Jason Witten type (not a lot of speed but knows how to get open in middle of field and uses size and leverage).

I tend to agree with you about Daboll's offense and the comparison to NE. Ultimately, I think he and the Bills regime would be just fine having a collection of solid WRs with varying skill sets to use in matchups rather than relying on an elite talent that ends up being the focus of the offense. I'm not saying the Bills would run away from elite talent at the WR position (they obviously were in the mix for Brown) but I think it would have to come without using a lot of draft and financial capital. That's probably why the Brown deal fell apart (the trade price was low) but the amount of $ and cap dollars he required in a new deal probably turned the Bills off. I totally agree with the DL, and for me edge rusher is a priority. The Bills focused heavily on the offensive side of the ball in free agency. We have an entire new offensive line and have added 2 quality WRs as well as another interesting CFL player that had been a top level WR prospect just a few years ago. We also added a quality receiving TE. We don't have a pass catching speed back but that can be added in the middle rounds. So I fully expect the Bills to go DL (best player at edge or interior) and then they may come back to offense in either the 2nd or 3rd.

I understand where you are coming from and if the Bills did go WR in round 1, I would not necessarily be upset if they traded back and got extra picks. As far as running the numbers, I was probably thinking more of the TE position rather than the WR. A few weeks back there was a poster who started bringing up all the 1st round TEs and there production or lack thereof. It got me thinking about whether it would be a good idea to spend a 1st round pick on a TE. I added the WR spot in because that has been a hot topic as well. I was not trying to prove one thing or another. In reality, this data is limited in that it only has 2 positions. It was very time consuming to run 2 positions and could not imagine doing every position. Running backs and quarterbacks would be fairly easy in terms of evaluating their worth (similar to evaluating the worth of receiving TEs and WRs). But evaluating top 30 or more guards, tackles, centers, DL, LBs, DBs would be more challenging. I've seen some of these things done before and some have used number of starts and others have used pro bowls for elite players. But there are flaws in using those measures and I was not sure I would even be capturing the top players unless I found a statistic or two for each position that seemed to accurately measure a player's worth. If someone were able to accurately capture a player's worth for each and every position and then match their draft position, it would be much more useful. NFL teams do this because they have every player in the league graded by their scouts based on their film. With this type of information, you could see what positions would require more urgency at the top of the draft and what positions were worth waiting on. That would be really helpful as the WRs and TEs info just gives us a small glimpse but still found interesting enough to share.

You might be right when looking at the WR numbers, especially if you were looking to specifically draft a top tier WR. Elite WRs are found in the 1st round at a 38% rate as opposed to the 2nd round at 24%. If you were looking to find just a productive WR it is much closer with 31% in the 1st and 24% in the 2nd. That's probably more what I was looking at as I feel the Bills might be more likely to try and find that quality WR rather than look for the home run elite talent (but that is much more an opinion than anything else). I'd say more than anything, the numbers probably changed my opinion on drafting Hockenson in the 1st. Not that he won't be good but there seems to be tremendous value at the TE position in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (at a greater rate than the first). Based on the past numbers and the fact the draft appears very deep at TE, I think it seems logical that if the Bills waited they could find a productive TE in rounds 2 or 3 (if they identify the right one). As for the WR, I guess if you are looking for the elite talent then round 1 is your best bet. With free agency, I think the Bills just need to add a younger quality prospect at WR rather than trying to hit the home run in the first. If they were to wait, they could add to the defensive line (which is a major need) and then identify that WR in the 2nd. Ideally, Bills trade down a few slots and get extra 2nd and 3rd round picks.