racketmaster

There appears to be more depth and options at wr than ever before so Jones will need to do something this summer to earn a spot. Jones lacks speed, the ability to separate, limited run after catch ability, limited ability to make contested catches and his hands have been generally suspect. He has only been a regular wr for the Bills because he was drafted high and the position group was gutted when he arrived. He never earned his spot and has done nothing with the opportunity. With so many options in free agency, trade possibilities and the draft it is hard to think he will be a top 4 Wr on this team next year unless his game drastically changes. Foster is well ahead of him and I believe they brought in the talented Duke Williams to compete for the #2 spot. McKenzie offers some trick play and special teams ability but he may be replaced as well. Jones is probably 3rd right now but I expect 2 more additions at this position and I’m not sure he is a good enough special teamed to stick with team if he is bumped down to a #5.

Big Hock fan but was hoping for at least 4.6s. Kittle was a 4.52 guy and Kelce was low 4.6s. Ertz was 4.76 but it would like to be a little more dynamic if top ten. I’d like to see the other quickness drills to see if he measures up in those areas.

I’m really for signing or trading for any number of younger WRs and that includes Funchess. As long as we don’t overpay he could be a nice addition and presence in the red zone. There are enough lower cost options out there for the Bills to upgrade the wr corps where it is at least average. But it would allow us to spend more assets on the line, tight end and rb positions.

His height is almost 6'5 and weight is good at 251. His hand size is average and arm length is a little shorter than I would like but still longer than Ertz measured in at. No red flags from the measurements so interested to see how he tests out athletically on Saturday.

It is an interesting question. I took a different angle regarding Duke’s potential for success and it had to do with top tier JUCO prospects. Duke Williams was the #1 ranked JUCO prospect in 2014. I read that after he first signed but never gave it much thought. As this thread appeared, I thought I would look into the JUCO history to see if there was anything interesting to note and here is what I found: Top 3 rated JUCO prospects by year as shown by 247 Sports:  2018: Saivion Smith CB from Alabama declared early and is a 3rd round prospect – others in class not out yet 2017: Jarrett Stidham QB: 2019 mid round prospect Isaiah Buggs DT: 2019 2nd round prospect Kendall Sheffield CB: 2019 3rd round prospect 2016: Jonathan Kongbo DE: Torn ACL in 10/18 and future unknown Charles Baldwin OT: transferred from Alabama to Kansas to Youngstown State Garrett Bolles OT: 2017 1st round pick (20) by Broncos and has been a starter since 2015: Jovon Robinson RB: Dismissed from Auburn program in 2016 *Alvin Kamara RB: 3rd round pick Saints Marquavius Lewis DE: UDFA spent time with Bills in 2018 before injury settlement 2014: D’Haquille “Duke” Williams WR: UDFA Packers and CFL star signed with Bills in 1/19 Dominick Jackson OT: UDFA with Redskins in 2016 but released without making roster *Tyreek Hill WR: 5th round pick KC Chiefs 2013: Lavon Hooks DT: UDFA with Packers and currently Steelers Risean Broussard DT: UDFA with Chiefs but released without making roster Beau Sandland TE: Drafted in the 7th round by Carolina in 2016 and currently with Cardinals 2012: Cordarrelle Patterson WR: Drafted 1st round by Vikings and spent the past year with Patriots Gerald Bowman S: UDFA signed by Ravens in 2015 but did not make roster *Denico Autry DE: UDFA with Raiders in 2014 and signed 3 year 17mil contact with Colts in 2018 (had 9 sacks in 2018) 2011: Cornelius Carradine DE: 2nd round pick by 49ers 2013-2017 and 2018 with Raiders *Sheldon Richardson DT: 1st round pick by Jets in 2013 and currently with Vikings Jesse Williams DT: 5th Round pick by Seahawks from 2013-2015 2010: *Bruce Irvin DE: 1st round pick Seahawks in 2012 currently with Falcons Wayne Dorsey DE: UDFA Raiders from 2012-2014 *Cam Newton QB: 1st round pick Panthers 2009: James Aviona DT: UDFA signed with Colts in 2013 but not rostered *Jason Pierre-Paul DE: 1st round pick Giants now with Tampa Bay Hebron Fangupo DT: UDFA 2012-2015 with Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Chiefs, Redskins In reviewing the NFL success of the top 3 rated prospects, it is interesting that 7 of 21 prospects (33%) can be considered successes from 2009-2015. It’s a little too early to rate the 2016 prospects and beyond but as you can see the top 3 prospects have continued to be on NFL radars and there are likely more hits to come. The 33% NFL success rate from the top rated JUCO prospects is pretty good and gives more credence to Williams being a potential #2 or maybe #1 wr for the Bills next year. It is interesting to see that prior to 2009, the top JUCO prospects seemed to have little to no NFL success. But since 2009, the top 3 prospects have been having NFL success at rate that would be similar to a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. I’m not sure what the reason for this is, maybe the people ranking the players have gotten better or maybe there are more top level talent going the JUCO route. But whatever the reason, the top ranked JUCO players seem to be NFL caliber talents. So the Bills essentially got the equivalent of a 2-3 round draft pick in signing Williams. And if we had used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a wr in the 2019 draft the expectation would be that they become a starter for us next year. In Williams, the Bills got a talented player who is a little older and hopefully matured. Bills still need to find other wrs and tight ends to help the passing game but Williams has a realistic chance of helping in this area.

I understand that Ross has yet to make a big impact but he did score 7 tds last year. His talent is really not the issue, it has much more to do with his injury history. I realize trading for Ross does not guarantee much of anything but feel it is a good match and worth the risk. I think we disagree on how much of our assets we should dedicate to the wr position. I think the combination of Foster, Williams (another talented player), Ross, McKenzie, Jones and maybe a value free agent wr can get the job done. There is potential there in the group but I realize it is just potential at this point. If it does not pan out then you make it more of a priority the following season. In in the meantime, you are bolstering your offensive line and tight end position. Both should help Allen every bit as much as an overpaid free agent wr or top draft pick would. Plus we disagree on Shady as I think he is just about done. We need serious help at RB and a mid round pick could help because they do help other teams year after year. With this plan, the Bills would theoretically improve their offensive line, tight end and rb positions. They would take a few gambles on the wr spot with Ross and Williams hoping one of them steps up as well as count on Foster continuing to be the number 1 threat. Wr may not be the strength but other positions would be much improved.

I think it depends on your system and quarterback. First, the Bengals have had Green and Boyd emerged this past year. Second, Ross has been hampered by injuries which is a real concern and the reason he is even on the block. But I completely disagree with the precision passing argument. Allen is the polar opposite of a Dalton type as he holds the ball longer than most quarterbacks. Allen not only has the ability to extend plays but he has a rocket arm. In this respect, Ross seems to be the perfect fit because it would allow him the time to get into his deeper routes. Even the threat of Ross getting over the top would allow more underneath routes to get open. So while Ross may not be a good fit for the Bengals he would be a good fit for teams like the Chiefs (they really don't need him because they have Hill), Steelers (they just drafted Washington), Panthers (they have DJ Moore), the Packers and the Bills to name a few. All have quarterbacks that can extend plays and get the ball deep. They are not precision passing, dink and dunk quarterbacks and could take better advantage of Ross' speed (if healthy).

The less of an asset we could use to acquire Ross the better. So if it were a 6th or 7th then it would be a steal in my mind for that type of pick which is likely to be a nothing player. But remember that Moss was 30 as you said and had flamed out in Oakland. He had been a distraction and was considered a malcontent and was no longer productive on the field. Plus his salary was higher so Moss had worn out his welcome and Oakland was just looking to get rid of him. There is no reason to expect Moss like production from Ross but I have not seen anything to indicate he has been a malcontent or distraction with the Bengals. Had Moss not been a distraction in Oakland he could have probably garnered a 3rd or 4th. Ross is young and still has upside where as most thought Moss had very little left in the tank at 30.

We could have gone back further as 2 drafts is an extremely small sample size. In addition, it is so early that the careers of players like Taron Johnson could go in many directions. I only took the Bills drafts because they are players that we all recognize and can easily place values on as opposed to the other 31 teams. Expecting top talent in the 4th and 5th rounds is unreasonable and the odds will show that there are many more depth, special teams and players that barely make an impact than guys that become difference makers. I'll put it this way: If we acquired Ross, I think the conservative odds of Ross putting up a 1000 yard season and 8-9 TDs would be at about 20%. He is a top tier talent and really just mostly needs to stay healthy and have a deep ball qb in order to be a productive player. If we drafted a wr in the 4th or 5th round this year, I'd say the chances or that pick putting up the 1000 yard 8-9 td season is less than 5%. I'm just playing the odds here and would prefer to take a shot at the players with the higher odds. And you may counter with the draft pick might have the better odds of being a productive player in years 2, 3, 4 and 5 after being developed. That's possible, but I still think the odds of a 4th or 5th round wr having that type of season at anytime in their career is less than 20%.

A Kelce/Kittle/Ertz type can make a major impact on a team's offense. Hockenson may have been a 2nd or 3rd round pick a few years ago. Kittle exploding this past year with his monster season is going to rocket Hockenson up the draft boards. You see this all the time as the NFL is a copy cat league and is all about comparable players. Kittle was an underused player at Iowa and is close with Hockenson. They have trained together and come from a school that is known for producing quality tight ends. IF Hockenson puts up the measurable at the combine that indicate he is an elite athlete (in the mold of Kittle) then he will likely go top 10. He is a tremendous blocker and his character and work ethic have never been questioned. Unlike Kittle, Hockenson has put up numbers at Iowa and if he puts up excellent combine numbers then he will be a top 10 pick because he will have the numbers/stats, athletic ability, character, size, dual ability, college pedigree and a recent comparable that has exploded in the NFL coming out of the same college.

I believe Williams and Ross are top tier talents and Foster really showed flashes of being a number 1 or 2 wr last year. So do I believe the Bills would be done making moves at the wr position beyond next year, heck no. But you would be adding Williams and Ross into the mix plus you may still use a later draft pick or veteran free agent that comes at a reasonable price. Bills could again attack the wr position in 2020 if needed. In the meantime, we could focus our assets ($ and picks) on the line and tight end spot. A legit tight end like Hockenson could be huge and just as much of an impact as a wr. We have a lot of holes and still need help on defense and we only have so much $ and picks. And let's not forget that the RB position needs a major upgrade in talent and that can be a tremendous help to a young quarterback. Plus, rookie RBs are more likely to become impact players as opposed to wrs, especially if we werr to use a mid round pick. Put another way, if Bills used a 4th or 5th on a wr would anybody be thinking that we just upgraded that spot? I think getting Ross instead has a better chance of helping us improve the wr spot next year. Its a risk but I think it is still worth taking.

Recent Bills 4th and 5th round picks: 2018: Tarron Johnson, Siran Neal and Wyatt Teller 2017: Matt Millano and Nathan Peterman 2016: Cardale Jones and Jonathan Williams 2015: Karlos Williams 2014: Ross Cockrell and Cyril Richardson 2013: Duke Williams and Jonathan Meeks 2012: Ron Brooks, Zebre Sanders and Tank Carder 2011: D’Norris Searcy, Chris Hariston and Johnny White 2010: Marcus Easley and Ed Wang I don’t want to minimize the value of a 4th or 5th round pick but it is relatively rare you are going to miss out on a really good player in those rounds. More often than not you are talking about special teams players and solid depth rather than difference makers. So I think it is worth the risk for the shot at a difference maker (elite speed guy that would be a good fit with a qb that has a rocket arm).

I get the above wr moves have not worked out but they have mostly been minimal risks. Matthews came in a trade for Darby plus we got a 3rd round pick which was the real asset in the deal for a CB that did not fit our scheme. Essentially, Matthews was a throw in bonus player that did not work out. Had we traded Darby for a 3rd round pick and nothing else, it would be still a fair deal. Benjamin for a 3rd was a miss and probably the biggest mistake Beane has made thus far. But he took a shot on a player that had performed well early in his career and just lost it with knee injuries. This was still a 3rd round pick and a lot of 3rd round picks end up being busts so it is hard to kill Beane for this too much. We were unexpectedly in a playoff race and I think he felt compelled to try and make a move to help the team break the drought. Coleman for a 7th. The vast majority of 7th round picks fail so it was worth a shot at a former first round talent. We took Proehl in the 7th last year and cut him. That is the norm for that draft pick so we really did not lose anything. With Ross, the speed and talent is there. It really comes down to can he stay healthy. Likely, he is a Goodwin type that struggles with various leg injuries because he is such a quick twitch athlete. But during the brief periods Goodwin has been healthy he has been a threat and productive player. If we could get a 1000 yard season out of Ross for a 4th it might still be worth it if it helps us win for a year. So so even though it has not exactly worked out with the 3 previous moves, I like the idea of trading mid to low round picks for young 1st and 2nd round talents. Sooner or later you will hit on one of those deals and it can pay big dividends. Remember, Moulds was considered a bust after 2 years as well.

I like the idea of having a speed guy paired with a qb who can launch the ball downfield. Think Mahomes and Tyreek Hill connection. I realize Ross is not as good as Hill but he really has been playing with a weaker armed quarterback that has not allowed him to maximize his strength. Getting Ross with a mid round pick (4th round) would allow the Bills to focus on building the offensive line and tight end position. Bills would have enough outside weapons in Foster, Williams and Ross as they all bring different attributes to the table. If we could improve offensive line in free agency and 2nd round we could snag Hockenson in first and add a mid round running back. The weapons on offense would be much improved from last year.

The draft order going from worst to first, NFL schedule (playing part of schedule against similarly ranked divisional opponents) and the salary cap already promote parity. I don’t think incompetence needs to be rewarded any further than it is.

For the 3 hour Bills talk show, I expect more in depth takes and knowledge. Most of the WGR hosts spend little time preparing for their shows when discussing the Bills. They seem a little more knowledgeable when talking hockey but have too little knowledge of the Bills and NFL to learn much of anything. But you would think the One Bills Live show would have more in depth knowledge being discussed. Unfortunately, Murphy and Tasker appear to spend little time breaking down the Bills and the NFL. The Cover One guys go much deeper and you can learn something while Murphy and Tasker seem to just show up talking like your average fan. The guest interviews are good but is it too much to ask for some film breakdowns during the season and free agent and draft prospect analysis.

Sal, Joe B., Fairburn, Lorenzo, Kyle, Parino, any of the guys on Cover 1 would all be more interesting to listen to than Murph and Steve. I don’t mind either guy for game day color analyst or play by play but the daily radio show is lacking in personality and interesting takes.

I am assuming the negative-Allen response will be something along the lines that Allen has a lower completion % in college as well so his stats are more reflective of what his pro career will be. I don’t agree with that sentiment (Allen was a late bloomer and has been a developing player) but people will see what they want to see. Most of the qbs listed above have made huge increases in their completion percentages over the years so it seems likely Allen’s percentage will increase as well. Allen is at about 53% and if he is able to increase his to 59-60 he will be more than fine. His big play ability and running ability will make up for a lower completion percentage. His yards per completion will be on the higher end so it is okay if he has a lower than average completion percentage. Some of the above qbs have made 10-15 point increases in their completion percentages so it seems like a realistic possibility than Allen can jump up 6-7 points.

I know the completion % argument is somewhat tiresome but here are just a few quarterbacks who also had low completion percentages early in their careers as well as less than impressive TD to INT ratios: Eli Manning: 2004 - 48.2% and 6td to 9 int 2005 - 52.8% and 24td to 17int (Eli does not hit 60% until 2008) Matt Stafford: 2009 - 53.3% and 13td to 20int (Stafford does not get to 60% until 3rd year) Kurt Cousins: 2013 - (2nd year) 52.3% and 4td to 7int Drew Brees: 2001- 55.6% with 1td and 0int 2002 - 60.8% with 17td and 16int 2003 - 57.6% with 11td and 15int Derek Carr: 2014 - 58.1% with 21td and 12int Alex Smith: 2005 - 50.9% with 1td and 11int 2006 - 58.1% with 16td and 16int 2007 - 48.7% with 2td and 4int Andy Dalton: 2011 - 58.1% with 20td and 13int Jared Goff: 2016 - 54.6% with 5td and 7int Andrew Luck: 2012 - 54.1% with 23td and 18int Mitch Trubisky: 2017 - 59.4% with 7td and 7int Jameis Winston: 2015 - 58.3% with 22td and 15int Ryan Tannehill: 2012 - 58.3% with 12td and 13int Peyton Manning: 1998 - 56.7% with 26td and 28int Michael Vick: 2001: 44.2% with 2td and 3int (2002 - 54.9%, 2003 - 50.0%, 2004 - 56.4%, 2005 - 55.3%, 2006 - 52.6%) Matt Hasselbeck: 2001 (first real action) 54.4% with 7td to 8int Donovan McNabb: 1999 - 49.1% with 8td and 7int (2000 - 58%, 2001 - 57.8%, 2002 - 58.4%, 2003 - 57.5%, ) There are others but I think you get the point that it is not uncommon for young quarterbacks to struggle. The quarterbacks range from decent starters to hall of famers. I doubt Allen ever leads the league in completion percentage like a Drew Brees but every quarterback is different and has different strengths. Allen can extend plays with his legs and be accurate at the intermediate level then he should be productive. He can push the ball to all levels of the field so he should not be forced into a dink and dunk mentality just to artificially increase his completion percentage. Allen will only get better and the assets he brings to the table should be enough to make him a franchise quarterback with the potential to be an elite one for years to come.

I'd like to drop down a few slots and pick him in the 12-15 range and have a few extra picks. If we can't trade down then I would not have an issue taking him at 9. He is similar to Kittle and who wouldn't take Kittle with a top 10 pick now.

I thought it might be interesting to get a little more prospective on the talent level of top 3 JUCO prospects. Duke Williams was the #1 ranked JUCO prospect in 2014. I read that after he first signed but never gave it much thought. As this thread appeared, I thought I would look into the JUCO history to see if there was anything interesting to note and here is what I found: Top 3 rated JUCO prospects by year as shown by 247 Sports: 2018: Saivion Smith CB from Alabama declared early and is a 3rd round prospect – others in class not out yet 2017: Jarrett Stidham QB: 2019 mid round prospect Isaiah Buggs DT: 2019 2nd round prospect Kendall Sheffield CB: 2019 3rd round prospect 2016: Jonathan Kongbo DE: Torn ACL in 10/18 and future unknown Charles Baldwin OT: transferred from Alabama to Kansas to Youngstown State Garrett Bolles OT: 2017 1st round pick (20) by Broncos and has been a starter since 2015: Jovon Robinson RB: Dismissed from Auburn program in 2016 *Alvin Kamara RB: 3rd round pick Saints Marquavius Lewis DE: UDFA spent time with Bills in 2018 before injury settlement 2014: D’Haquille “Duke” Williams WR: UDFA Packers and CFL star signed with Bills in 1/19 Dominick Jackson OT: UDFA with Redskins in 2016 but released without making roster *Tyreek Hill WR: 5th round pick KC Chiefs 2013: Lavon Hooks DT: UDFA with Packers and currently Steelers Risean Broussard DT: UDFA with Chiefs but released without making roster Beau Sandland TE: Drafted in the 7th round by Carolina in 2016 and currently with Cardinals 2012: Cordarrelle Patterson WR: Drafted 1st round by Vikings and spent the past year with Patriots Gerald Bowman S: UDFA signed by Ravens in 2015 but did not make roster *Denico Autry DE: UDFA with Raiders in 2014 and signed 3 year 17mil contact with Colts in 2018 (had 9 sacks in 2018) 2011: Cornelius Carradine DE: 2nd round pick by 49ers 2013-2017 and 2018 with Raiders *Sheldon Richardson DT: 1st round pick by Jets in 2013 and currently with Vikings Jesse Williams DT: 5th Round pick by Seahawks from 2013-2015 2010: *Bruce Irvin DE: 1st round pick Seahawks in 2012 currently with Falcons Wayne Dorsey DE: UDFA Raiders from 2012-2014 *Cam Newton QB: 1st round pick Panthers 2009: James Aviona DT: UDFA signed with Colts in 2013 but not rostered *Jason Pierre-Paul DE: 1st round pick Giants now with Tampa Bay Hebron Fangupo DT: UDFA 2012-2015 with Texans, Seahawks, Steelers, Chiefs, Redskins In reviewing the NFL success of the top 3 rated prospects, it is interesting that 7 of 21 prospects (33%) can be considered successes from 2009-2015. It’s a little too early to rate the 2016 prospects and beyond but as you can see the top 3 prospects have continued to be on NFL radars and there are likely more hits to come. The 33% NFL success rate from the top rated JUCO prospects is pretty good and gives more credence to Williams being a potential #2 or maybe #1 wr for the Bills next year. It is interesting to see that prior to 2009, the top JUCO prospects seemed to have little to no NFL success. But since 2009, the top 3 prospects have been having NFL success at rate that would be similar to a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick. I’m not sure what the reason for this is, maybe the people ranking the players have gotten better or maybe there are more top level talent going the JUCO route. But whatever the reason, the top ranked JUCO players seem to be NFL caliber talents. So the Bills essentially got the equivalent of a 2-3 round draft pick in signing Williams. And if we had used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a wr in the 2019 draft the expectation would be that they become a starter for us next year. In Williams, the Bills got a talented player who is a little older and hopefully matured. Bills still need to find other wrs and tight ends to help the passing game but Williams has a realistic chance of helping in this area.

Agreed. I don’t think the Bills are going to spend premium assets on a wr in the draft of free agency. They appear more likely to use the free agent money in offensive linemen and maybe a lower profile wr who will not command big dollars. I like Humphries but he may get too rich for Beane. I think the top draft picks are more likely to be on the offensive line and tight end position if we go offense. And if that happens u might get a 3rd or 4th round wr for development and a free agent wr to compete for a top 4 spot, which would leave Williams with a very good shot to claim a starting spot opposite Foster.

I'm not sure he will be our number 1 wr but he will likely get a shot to play in the top 3. I have to assume that he looked around at NFL teams and decided to leave the CFL because he was going to get a legitimate chance to start with the Bills. I do like he body control and ability to catch contested passes. He clearly goes after and attacks the football. He might be a replacement for what the Bills thought they were going to get in Benjamin (a guy who is physical and will make contested catches presenting a bigger target in the red zone). That said, Williams looks like he is a 4.7 speed guy. He is a thick body wr and does not appear to have a ton of speed. But that does not mean he cannot be useful. Dez Bryant could still make plays later in his career even after he had lost some speed and Dez was never known as a speed guy to begin with. I could see Williams taking over as a #2 with Robert Foster being more of the #1 threat. I would not mind this, especially if the Bills signed Humphries to play in the slot.

I'd say both Goff and McVay fall on the overrated side of things but I would definitely say Goff. McVay took over an underachieving team and has made it into a contender the past 2 years. He turned things around right away so we know he can coach. Is he as great as the media makes him out to be, no but he is still a top 5 Head Coach in this league. As for Goff, he was a disaster before McVay came to the Rams and he has been a solid quarterback since. He does not get the sort of praise that McVay has gotten but Goff has been generally seen as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league. But watching Goff, he reminds me much more of a Cousins than a Brady. He will put up stats especially when Gurley and the run game is going, but when he needs to carry the team he generally comes up short. Beginning in week 13 against the Lions Goff's play really began to tail off. He had lost Kupp and Gurley's play began to fall off. In Goff's last 8 starts he has failed to throw for more than 1 passing TD in 7 of those 8 starts. The 1 game he did was against SF in a week 17 matchup. In 4 of the last 8 starts he has not even thrown for a single passing TD. And Goff has very limited mobility so he does not make up for it on the ground with rushing yards and rushing TDS. The more you watch Goff, the more I think he has been propped up by McVay and the talent around him. Once the talent started to fade he was not able to elevate his play and that of his teammates.

Yeah, I think its pretty close. I had 11 misses in week 16 and 7 misses in week 17. I will probably take a look at some other quarterbacks using the same criteria so I can see how Allen measures up.