racketmaster

I agree with you that many of the recent 1st round TEs have been productive players and probably worth taking in the first round. But look at some of the TEs taken in rounds after the first: Rob Gronkowski (2nd) Travis Kelce (3rd) Zach Ertz (2nd) George Kittle (5th) Jared Cook (3rd) Austin Hooper (3rd) Jimmy Graham (3rd) Kyle Rudolph (2nd) Vance McDonald (2nd) Jordan Reed (3rd) Jason Witten (3rd) Hunter Henry (2nd) Delanie Walker (6th) Cameron Brate (UDFA) Charles Clay (6th) Jesse James (5th) Trey Burton (UDFA) Chris Herndon (4th) Mark Andrews (4th) CJ Uzomah (5th) Ian Thomas (4th) Antonio Gates (UDFA) *Tyler Kroft (3rd) These are just some of the top receiving tight ends in the past 3 years. There have been so many solid to great tight ends found outside of the first round that it almost seems irresponsible to draft one in the top tight, unless they are some transcendent talent. Hockenson is not that (based on tape and Combine numbers). He is a very good prospect but not a generational talent at the position. And the TE class is deep this year. There will be 2-3 quality tight ends found outside the first round so trust the front office and their ability to locate a talented player in the middle rounds.

2 recent clues that the Bills may be more interested in finding an interior pass rusher: At the owner’s meetings McDermott's response to the impact Short had in Carolina for his team is one to remember distinctly should the Bills stand pat at ninth overall: "Yeah that's big. That's really big. To be able to get pressure from the inside... you know, people would argue that there's ways to take away the edge rusher more than there is ways to take away the inside, the interior rusher, and I would probably agree. The ability to pressure an effective quarterback from the inside out is critical when you want to play good football on defense. So, you've got to make sure that you've got enough of those guys." The Bills only have Phillips on a 1 year contract at this position and could really use some help there. McDermott values the three-technique defensive tackle role in his defense and there will be some available at the top of the draft (Williams, Oliver, Wilkins). Brandon Beane has spent time this week talking about the importance of winning your own division and thus paying most attention to the divisional opponents, especially the Patriots. Defensively, how have teams generally slowed down or disrupted the Patriots offense. It comes from getting pressure on Brady and generally from the interior. With edge rushers Brady has a better chance of stepping up in the pocket and deliver his quick strikes in 2 seconds or less. But interior pressure, can stop Brady from stepping up and disrupt the timing of his quick game. Finding an interior rusher like an Ed Oliver might be more valuable to the Bills because they are trying first and foremost to match up with the Patriots.

I was fully on board with Hockenson at 9 early in the draft season but have changed my mind as the draft process has progressed. I really like Hockenson as a player and believe he would be an excellent fit in Buffalo. Injuries aside, Hockenson has little chance of busting due to his talent and work ethic. At the very least he will become a solid blocking and receiving tight end. But is that the best decision at 9. I now feel that the Bills could get better value out of that slot by taking a defensive lineman. The DL is highly rated this year and is a more valued position than tight end. Even though there is depth at DL this year, it generally is harder to find talented edge and interior linemen in the middle rounds. Conversely, history shows that year after year quality tight ends are being drafted in the middle rounds. In fact, there are more quality tight ends being drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds than in the first. Having looked at the numbers it seems to make sense to take DL (a real position of need) over a tight end (somewhat of a need after the signing of Croft and development of Croom). Tight end is also deep this year and there will be quality tight ends available in the middle rounds. Bills need to wait on TE and trust that they can identify and target one of those middle round TEs. That would be the best way to maximize value and I strongly believe the Bills are going DL at pick 9. A easier way to look at it would be top end comparisons: Let's say Hockenson's high end is Travis Kelce. But let's say the high end comparison for Ed Oliver is Aaron Donald. Who would you rather have at a cost controlled 5 year contract, Aaron Donald or Travis Kelce? To me the answer is Donald and that is one of the main reasons I would prefer the Bills draft a DL like Ed Oliver over at TE Hockenson at 9. We could stll come back in round 4 and draft a Kaden Smith at TE who could end up being a Jason Witten type (not a lot of speed but knows how to get open in middle of field and uses size and leverage).

I tend to agree with you about Daboll's offense and the comparison to NE. Ultimately, I think he and the Bills regime would be just fine having a collection of solid WRs with varying skill sets to use in matchups rather than relying on an elite talent that ends up being the focus of the offense. I'm not saying the Bills would run away from elite talent at the WR position (they obviously were in the mix for Brown) but I think it would have to come without using a lot of draft and financial capital. That's probably why the Brown deal fell apart (the trade price was low) but the amount of $ and cap dollars he required in a new deal probably turned the Bills off. I totally agree with the DL, and for me edge rusher is a priority. The Bills focused heavily on the offensive side of the ball in free agency. We have an entire new offensive line and have added 2 quality WRs as well as another interesting CFL player that had been a top level WR prospect just a few years ago. We also added a quality receiving TE. We don't have a pass catching speed back but that can be added in the middle rounds. So I fully expect the Bills to go DL (best player at edge or interior) and then they may come back to offense in either the 2nd or 3rd.

I understand where you are coming from and if the Bills did go WR in round 1, I would not necessarily be upset if they traded back and got extra picks. As far as running the numbers, I was probably thinking more of the TE position rather than the WR. A few weeks back there was a poster who started bringing up all the 1st round TEs and there production or lack thereof. It got me thinking about whether it would be a good idea to spend a 1st round pick on a TE. I added the WR spot in because that has been a hot topic as well. I was not trying to prove one thing or another. In reality, this data is limited in that it only has 2 positions. It was very time consuming to run 2 positions and could not imagine doing every position. Running backs and quarterbacks would be fairly easy in terms of evaluating their worth (similar to evaluating the worth of receiving TEs and WRs). But evaluating top 30 or more guards, tackles, centers, DL, LBs, DBs would be more challenging. I've seen some of these things done before and some have used number of starts and others have used pro bowls for elite players. But there are flaws in using those measures and I was not sure I would even be capturing the top players unless I found a statistic or two for each position that seemed to accurately measure a player's worth. If someone were able to accurately capture a player's worth for each and every position and then match their draft position, it would be much more useful. NFL teams do this because they have every player in the league graded by their scouts based on their film. With this type of information, you could see what positions would require more urgency at the top of the draft and what positions were worth waiting on. That would be really helpful as the WRs and TEs info just gives us a small glimpse but still found interesting enough to share.

You might be right when looking at the WR numbers, especially if you were looking to specifically draft a top tier WR. Elite WRs are found in the 1st round at a 38% rate as opposed to the 2nd round at 24%. If you were looking to find just a productive WR it is much closer with 31% in the 1st and 24% in the 2nd. That's probably more what I was looking at as I feel the Bills might be more likely to try and find that quality WR rather than look for the home run elite talent (but that is much more an opinion than anything else). I'd say more than anything, the numbers probably changed my opinion on drafting Hockenson in the 1st. Not that he won't be good but there seems to be tremendous value at the TE position in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (at a greater rate than the first). Based on the past numbers and the fact the draft appears very deep at TE, I think it seems logical that if the Bills waited they could find a productive TE in rounds 2 or 3 (if they identify the right one). As for the WR, I guess if you are looking for the elite talent then round 1 is your best bet. With free agency, I think the Bills just need to add a younger quality prospect at WR rather than trying to hit the home run in the first. If they were to wait, they could add to the defensive line (which is a major need) and then identify that WR in the 2nd. Ideally, Bills trade down a few slots and get extra 2nd and 3rd round picks.

I admit that there are probably more than a few flaws to taking the approach I did. It matters how many WRs and TEs were selected in each of the rounds as well and if I ran the numbers on all the other positions (or at least the offensive side of the ball) it might provide better context. What it did show was that there are productive and highly productive WRs found in the 2nd round each year (certainly more are found in the first round but it is close enough in my opinion to wait until the 2nd). It also showed that there are productive and highly productive TEs being found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds each year (even more than the first round). So now it is up to Brandon Beane and company to identify that talent at the WR and TE positions that slip through the cracks into the 2nd and 3rd. It is pretty much a consensus that the draft this year is deep at both of the positions so it seems to make sense that productive players will be there in the 2nd and 3rd (maybe even some in the 4th because of how deep the TE position is) and the Bills could maximize value if they were to wait and identify the talent that does fall outside the 1st round.

With the draft nearing, I wanted to take a closer look at 2 positions (WR, TE) that have been in the conversation for the Bills using their first round pick on. Metcalf and Hockenson have been the 2 names most regularly mentioned if the Bills were to use pick #9 on WR or TE. Prior to the combine, I was on board with taking Hockenson, even if it meant taking him at 9. I still would not be mad at the selection (he should be a quality player at the very least) but I think it would not be the best way to maximize pick value. I thought it might be worth looking into what draft rounds produce quality and elite players at the WR and TE positions. What I chose to use as a measure of quality was receiving yards as I thought it was the best measure for receiving targets. With WRs, I looked at the top 30 ranked WRs in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Top 30 WRs, I deemed quality WRs. I also looked at the top 15 WRs for the same years and I viewed them as elite WRs. I did the same for the TE position except I chose the top 25 for quality players and top 10 for elite TEs. The reason for the difference was that there are just less productive receiving TEs than WRs. For each of the WRs and TEs that made the lists, I recorded the rounds they were drafted. I wanted to see what the percentages were for drafted rounds for the quality and elite WRs and TEs. So what did it show? 2016, 2017 and 2018 TOP 30 WRs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS: ROUND 1: 31% (28) ROUND 2: 24% (22) ROUND 3: 13% (12) ROUND 4: 1% (1) ROUND 5: 11% (10) ROUND 6: 5% (4) ROUND 7: 5% (4) UDFA: 10% (9) 2016, 2017 AND 2018 TOP 15 (ELITE) WRs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS: ROUND 1: 38% (17) ROUND 2: 24% (11) ROUND 3: 7% (3) ROUND 4: 0% (0) ROUND 5: 11% (5) ROUND 6: 7% (3) ROUND 7: 2% (1) UDFA: 11% (5) 2016, 2017 and 2018 TOP 25 TEs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS: ROUND 1: 24% (15) ROUND 2: 18% (17) ROUND 3: 26% (19) ROUND 4: 8% (5) ROUND 5: 10% (6) ROUND 6: 4% (5) ROUND 7: 0% (0) UDFA: 10% (8) 2016, 2017 AND 2018 TOP 10 (ELITE) TEs AND THEIR DRAFT ROUNDS: ROUND 1: 20% (6) ROUND 2: 30% (9) ROUND 3: 30% (9) ROUND 4: 3% (1) ROUND 5: 3% (1) ROUND 6: 7% (2) ROUND 7: 0% (0) UDFA: 7% (2) WR POSITION: The best chance at success comes from the first round. 31% of quality (top 30) WRs and 38% of the elite WRs are from the first round. The next best round is the second round with 24% and 24% for both quality and elite production. There is a significant drop off after the second round. Based on the numbers and the fact that the WR position is expected to be extremely deep in 2019, I think the value lies in the 2nd round. It seems likely that a WR such as AJ Brown, Hakeem Butler or a Debo Samuel will be available when the Bills pick in the 2nd round. If the Bills determine that they want another WR, the 2nd round is where they should go looking. The numbers between the first and second round are close enough and the depth is great enough to think the best way to maximize pick value would be take a WR in the 2nd. TE POSITION: This position was even more interesting to me. The 3rd round actually had a higher percentage (26% as opposed to 24%) of quality players than what came from the 1st round. This even held when looking at the elite TEs in that both the 2nd and 3rd rounds had the highest percentage of elite receiving tight ends at 30% a piece. Based on the numbers and the fact that the tight end position is considered to be deep this year, waiting until the 3rd round appears to be the best way to maximize the value of selecting a tight end. In looking at the numbers, I changed my tune and would much prefer the Bills to wait on TE until the 2nd or even better the 3rd round. A player like Jace Sternberger, will be available in the 2nd and maybe even the 3rd round. Waiting on WR and TE, will allow the Bills to attack the defensive side of the ball and in particular the defensive line. It is the strength of the draft and the Bills could really use a pass rusher and some youth up front. In sum, I am completely fine with passing on Metcalf and Hockenson in order to grab a defensive lineman because we still have a good chance of finding talented WRs and TEs in the 2nd and 3rd.

Exactly, Burns may have added weight for the combine but he still performed athletically at a high level. He matched Von Miller's 40 time and still posted a solid 3 cone score. Look at Maybin (who many detractors want to compare Burns to). Maybin bulked up but then put up a mediocre 40 time and a bad 3 cone score. He was not able to maintain the same speed and athleticism by adding all that weight. Every player is different and Burns seems to have been able to maintain the necessary athleticism while adding the additional weight.

Brian Burns (BB)/Von Miller (VM)/Aaron Maybin (AM) NFL Combine Numbers: Height: 6’5” (BB) and 6’3” (VM) and 6’4” (AM) Weight: 249lbs (BB) and 246lbs (VM) and 249lbs (AM) Arm Length: 33 7/8 (BB) and 33 ½ (VM) and Not Listed Vertical: 36 (BB) and 37 (VM) and 38 (AM) Broad Jump: 129 (BB) and 126 (VM) and 124 (AM) 3 Cone: 7.01 (BB) and 6.70 (VM) and 7.52 (AM) 40 Dash: 4.53 (BB) and 4.53 (VM) and 4.78 (AM) College Sacks: Brian Burns had 8.5 (2016), 4.5 (2017) and 10 (2018) for 23 total Von Miller had 2 (2007), 3.5 (2008), 17 (2009) and 10.5 for a total of 33, Aaron Maybin had 4 (2007) and 12 (2008) for total of 16. From the numbers, Burns appears closer in athleticism to Miller than he does to Maybin. Burns may have added some additional weight, but he was able to maintain elite level athleticism. Plus, Maybin really had 1 year of production at Penn State where as Burns had more productive career over a 3 year span that seems more similar to what Von Miller's career (multiple years with solid sack numbers).

I’ve moved away from the idea of Hockenson or Metkalf and Burns seems like a much better option at this point. Bills need an edge rusher in the worst way. It is probably the #1 need following free agency period. Burns fits the freaky athletic profile that may really interest Beane with the 9th pick. His speed, bend, balance and array of pass rushing moves is impressive. We could still go back and get a wr, tight end or offensive tackle in the 2nd round to add to the offense as there is depth there. But the defense really needs an upgrade at pass rush and special edge rushers are usually found at the top of the draft.

Just because the trade might work for Cleveland does not mean it would have worked for Buffalo. Seriously, how happy would OBJ have been had he been dealt to Buffalo? Most diva wrs want nothing to do with Buffalo at this point in time. It is completely true that Cleveland and Buffalo are not that different in terms of desirable markets, but their team and organizational structure is much different. Cleveland has Jarvis Landry (OBJ's close friend and college teammate). He is the leader of the wrs in Cleveland and can help keep OBJ in check. Mayfield has worked out with OBJ and is a very strong personality, himself. Mayfield is an up and coming rock star and he won't be overshadowed by OBJ in Cleveland. Cleveland also has OBJ's college wrs coach so having Landry and the same college position coach in Cleveland is like having an LSU reunion of sorts. In addition, Cleveland has decided it is ready this year to push their chips into the center of the table. They have acquired a bunch of talent from previous drafts, trades and free agency. They believe they can win their division and be a contender in the AFC. And they might be right if all the parts come together. In Buffalo, OBJ would not have had his close friend and college coach. Allen is a leader but he does not have the cache that Mayfield has right now. Mayfield has more "street cred" at this point and it is more likely that OBJ would view Mayfield as the leader and top dog on offense. In Buffalo, OBJ likely would have viewed himself as the "top dog" and feel more empowered. The situation could have easily become a negative one for Allen. Plus, Buffalo is an improving team but there is no sense that they are better than the Patriots right now. They are not ready to plant their flag for the 2019 season. Again, the situation may work for a while in Cleveland before exploding down the road. With all the personalities there, it probably is only a matter of time as that is what generally happens with that many egos. Cleveland is banking on winning big before it does explode and I don't disagree with that thinking. Again, OBJ in Cleveland seems to "fit" while he would be a very "odd fit" in Buffalo.

This I tend to agree with and don't have an issue with. If the Bills don't draft a wr this year there is probably room to keep Jones as a primary backup wr as he could play multiple positions. His position versatility could be enough to warrant keeping him on the team in case there are injuries or if Foster takes a step back. I would be fine with that, but I would also be fine if the Bills just chose to move on from Jones and trade him for a pick or player at a position of need. To me he is replacement level wr so a smart street level free agent could fill his role as a backup wr. One thing we know is that Beane and McDermott want to create competition at every position. Jones has yet to really have to compete for a spot so far. That will change this year and maybe they keep Jones to see how he responds and for him to push the guys ahead of him in Brown, Beasley and Foster.

Alphadawg is right in that there is a myth that Zay Jones really came on for the Bills last season. He had some terrible games and big time drops down the stretch. Yes, he lit it up week 17 against the Dolphins who had checked out, but otherwise he was a pedestrian wr. Zay was terrible as a rookie and one of the most inefficient wrs in the NFL so it was hard not for him to improve upon his 2017 season. Jones got 102 targets last year for a possession wr and turned that into a total of 652 yards on 52 receptions. If that is #1 or #2 wr type numbers then the standard is too low. I don't need Jones off the team and would be fine letting him actually COMPETE for a position. Jones was handed a starting position from the time he was drafted and has never EARNED any of his playing time. The wr position was gutted when he arrived and due to his draft status he has been given preferential treatment. He has had terrible performances and the team has continued to trot him out in starting roles. That will not happen this year. If Jones sees any significant action it will be because he earned it. Brown, Beasley and Foster are all ahead of Jones in the depth chart. He would have to make a significant jump in his play in order to leapfrog any of those 3. In reviewing actual talent and the needs of this team, I strongly believe that Duke Williams will outperform Jones for the 4th spot. Williams offers the bigger body, contested catch ability that Jones is unable to deliver. We don't have that from any of the top 3 wrs so Williams offers something different and I think Dabol is looking for wrs with different skill sets in his offense. And if we draft a wr high then we might be talking about fighting over a 5th spot as opposed to the 4th. Roberts was signed as a special teams return man so he is almost a lock to make the team and take one of the wr spots (Mckenzie probably loses his spot on the team as a result unless Jones is moved). Personally, I have seen enough of Jones to say I would like to trade him for a later round pick especially if we draft a wr in the first 3 rounds. I try and look at what a player can and can't do and there is a lot that Jones has shown not to be able to do. Zay Jones Speed: Average at best and has shown almost no ability to get behind defenses Ability to separate/quickness in an out of breaks: Average at best as he is frequently blanketed on routes Routine Catching: Below average as there have been too many routine drops whether lack of concentration or lack of confidence Contested Catches: Below average as he has not demonstrated the ability to go up and fight for jump balls or make tough catches with defenders on him Run After Catch: Average at best as there has been nothing special with his elusiveness or ability to break tackles Knowledge of position and playbook: Above average as it appears to be always in position and knows his assignments Awareness when plays break down: Above average as he appears to be alert and to find open spots on scramble plays There might be more areas to evaluate a wr but those are the big things that come to mind and Jones is below average in most areas. The best thing he does is know where to line up and what routes to run but as far as actual playmaking ability he has shown very little thus far. I guess anything can happen but I find it difficult to believe that Jones will all of a sudden make some big jump in athletic ability and playmaking in his 3rd season. He has been given tons of opportunities and displayed no real potential playmaking ability thus far which leads me to believe it is never going to happen with him. As long as he does not complain about a reduced role then I don't care if he remains as a 4th, 5th or 6th wr. But if we could move him for a 5th or 6th I would do that as he has shown himself to be a replacement level wr thus far.

Love that the Bills have Brandon Beane as their GM. Bills finally have a top notch leader, probably the first since Polian left. We have seen all kinds come and go since Polian, many were strictly personnel men and others were just inexperienced and out of their element. Beane checks all the boxes: (1) Leader, (2) Communication skills, (3) Has an Organizational Vision/Plan, (4) Understands talent and value, (5) Willing to use all avenues to acquire talent, (6) Understands the salary cap and the business side, (7) Comfortable with surrounding himself with talented individuals, (8) Low ego and willing to share credit, (9) Competitive/Dedicated and fully committed to winning, (10) Has people skills and respectful to those in the organization, the players and the fans. I am fully confident that it is only a matter of time before the Bills become a consistent winner under Beane's watch.

Competition is good. Would like to see Bills draft a wr in the 3rd or 4th, possibly the 2nd if they have that wr rated highly. There is a lot of depth at wr and maybe an Isabella or Samuel slips to 3rd round. They would be under no pressure to start this year but could eventual slide into a starter spot in their 2nd or 3rd year replacing a veteran like Brown or Beasley.

Foster, Beasley, Brown, Williams, and Roberts for special teams. Bills would likely need to keep 6 wrs in order for Zay to make the team. I'm not sure if a team would be willing to trade for Jones but maybe Beane can work some of his magic and get a mid to late round pick for him.

I forgot to add that Beasley wears #11 so that gives the Bills another reason to move on from Jones. Lol

Zay was dreadful as a rookie and just below average last year. Only reason why he has been on the field so much is that the wr position was gutted before he arrived and he was a high draft pick of this regime. Man would have been cut as a rookie if he was a lower pick or drafted by previous regime. Unless he suddenly starts running faster, becomes quicker and develops stronger hands then he will not play over Foster, Brown and Beasley. At best it puts him at 4 but Williams offers the size and physicality the Bills need at the position and no other wr on the roster offers that. Zay is the #5 and has not been a special team performer. If we can get anything of value back, he needs to be traded now before he is released in September.

Signing Brown and Beasley to those contracts spell the end to Zays time in Buffalo. Hopefully, Beane can trade Zay for another player or at least a late round pick.

I think Mcbeane wanted some experienced and professional WRs in the room next year. Guys that can be counted on to lead the room and have consistent performances. Foster can learn from the veterans as will Williams and possibly McKenzie. As for Zay, I think it spells the end of the road for him in Buffalo. They did not pay Brown and Beasley that much to sit the bench and Foster showed to be a much greater wr last year. That puts Zay at best the 4th wr but the Bills brought in Williams for a reason and he will be ahead of Zay as well because he is the one wr that offers the bigger body red zone presence. As the 5th wr, Zay will not be kept unless he becomes a special teams ace so I would expect the Bills to try and make a deal involving Zay while they can.

I like that he is only 26 (soon to be 27) where as I believe Paradis is 30 and would have been declining at end of a 4-5 year deal.

I almost forgot that Jones was the wr targeted by Taylor at the end of the Carolina game. He does stumble at the top of his route and fails to make a catch that is made by wrs on a regular basis (not a routine catch but would not have been a wow catch either). He drops the 3rd and 10 pass along the sideline against Miami right before the final play (this was an even more egregious drop). So I'll add not being clutch to the list of complaints I have with Jones' play. Bills are clearly looking to upgrade the wr position and if Jones cannot excel on special teams he will most likely be the odd man out.

Zay Jones has been a disappointment so far and I would not count on him to be a significant member of the wr corps in 2019. If he takes a jump this year, then that's great but it would not be something that I would be counting on to happen. Personally, I find Duke Williams to be a more attractive option at this point because he was such a talented kid in college before he lost his head. Williams seems to have gotten himself back on track and I think the talent that made him the #1 JUCO prospect and have some big time performances in the SEC his first year is still there. In 2 years, the best I can say is Jones seems to have a good understanding of the playbook. Talent wise he is not a burner and does not run away from anyone, he creates little to no separation on most routes he runs, he was dreadful catching the football in his first year and improved some in that area his second year but still not an above average catcher of the football, has shown little to no ability to make contested catches, and he has shown no real playmaking ability after the catch (shiftiness, breaking tackles or running away). He has a lot of work to do in those areas and I am not optimistic based on his skill set that he can make any significant improvement.

Not a big fan of the strictly blocking tight end. You need to offer some threat in the passing game or you might be better off just keeping the extra offensive lineman and using him on goaline and short yardage situations.