Logic

I literally can't imagine by what metric one would judge the quality of a draft class, other than how many guys make the team and how much they contribute. How would YOU rank the quality of a draft class, mighty one?

I look forward to this thread making it to page 117.

Give me James Bradberry. Fifth year player, young, knows McDermott's system. Is just entering his prime. Also re-sign Kevin Johnson as long as he's not asking for a ton of money. White Bradberry Johnson Johnson Wallace Neal Giddyup.

That would be absolutely TERRIBLE for fans traveling to the games. It's great for the TV audience, sure, but its AWFUL for live attendees. Awful.

Personally, I'd love to see the Bills add another legitimate target at tight end. People seem to act as if spending big money on one of the younger guys like Henry or Hooper would be foolish, because it would take reps away from Dawson Knox. I don't understand this line of thinking. The Patriots offense seemed to me to be at its most lethal when it had two legitimate tight ends. The degree to which offenses can put opposing defenses in a bind by coming out in 12 personnel featuring two legitimate receiving and blocking tight ends should not be underestimated. Brandon Beane said he wants to get more "touchdown makers" for the Bills offense. That doesn't just have to mean wide receivers. A Henry/Knox or Hooper/Knox combo would be awesome. Most likely, they just roll with Kroft again (or Olsen, if he picks us), but consider me firmly in the minority of people who'd rather they sign a younger option.

I initially thought he'd actually leave. The more time I have to ponder it, the more I think he's just using the threat of leaving to force New England to give him what he wants: More money and better targets. As gross as it is, I think he'll be a Patriot next year, they'll be much improved on offense, and will be Super Bowl contenders again. Ugh.

No. I'll give him a look.

Great observation. Despite having accepted the reasonably high likelihood that the Bills take an EDGE high in the draft, I can't seem to get excited for any of the guys that would still be the board at 22. This class just isn't doing it for me. It's hard to be excited about the notion of spending a 1st round pick on an EDGE who doesn't possess elite burst and explosiveness. If it's just a bunch of guys who will play the run well and pitch in 6 sacks a year, well, the Bills should just re-sign Shaq Lawson. He's that guy. Unless a player has 10+ sack per year potential, I don't have interest in spending a high pick on him. If someone can point out how/why I'm wrong, or talk about a guy that they feel DOES have that type of a high ceiling, I'd love to hear it, but this class just isn't doing it for me so far.

I was at the game. I usually always re-watch the broadcast version once I get home, because it's always interesting to see things on TV that you miss when you're in the stadium. I have not re-watched this game yet. I keep saying "not yet, not yet", because I don't feel I'm ready to subject myself to the anguish again. I'm starting to wonder if I'll ever re-watch it. I probably will, but maybe not until closer to training camp kicks off. That way, I won't have to sit on the heartache for too long, because a new season will be right around the corner. I'm still not over that loss, which I flew all the way to Texas to see, and I don't know if I ever will be.

I WILL agree one thing: Anyone counting on Wade to seamlessly step in, replace Frank Gore, and become the Bills' backup running back is probably not being realistic. Could it happen? Sure, of course it could. It's just not likely. The Bills ought to address the running back position as if Christian Wade doesn't exist. If he turns out to be a great player, and they're forced to make a tough decision at running back, then so be it. But they absolutely, positively should not count on Wade, and I don't think they will.

While I do agree that the Bills should add a quality running back this offseason to compliment Singletary, and that they should thereafter lean into being a dynamic run-heavy team (think 49ers)...I disagree that said quality running back should come via a 1st round pick. It is simply not a good use of such a premium resource, ESPECIALLY when we already have a dynamic feature back in Devin Singletary. Instead, given McDermott's preference for having a veteran in each position room, I think the Bills should pick from one of the many young veteran running backs that will be available in free agency. I believe that the days of committing huge sums of money to running backs is over and that, as such, the Bills should be able to get a good, young player at that position on an affordable contract. Furthermore, they should structure the deal in such a way that they have an out as soon as it's Singletary contract extension time, so that at no point are they allocating a lot of money to more than one running back. I like Jordan Howard, as an example. I don't think he'll command big money. He'd be a younger, more dynamic version of what Gore was to the offense this year. He has had multiple 1,000 yard+ seasons and is still just 25 years old. Just say "no" to 1st round running backs.

I love McDermott, but if I'm being unbiased... I'd have to say either Shanahan, who took the 49ers from 4-12 to the Super Bowl in one calendar year, or Matt LaFleur, who won 13 games as a rookie head coach, are more deserving.

Well deserved. He gets the maximum amount of effort and production out of his teams. Does anyone know who the other finalists are?

Absolutely. A Dobbins/Singletary backfield (and AJ Dillon is no slouch, at 250 lbs) and a Shenault, Brown, Beasley, Edwards receiving corps would be nasty. I also liked that this draft didn't completely ignore the defense, adding two quality corners and an edge. Admittedly, it doesn't quite address the edge position enough, but that's what free agency is for, I suppose.

I woke up this morning and opened my phone to discover that I apparently did some drunken mock drafting last night. Not too bad for a drunk guy!

This.

I'm not saying I agree, I'm just trying to predict what I think the NFL will do. Like I said, I'll believe the Bills will be on SNF when I see it.

I'm holding strong with my prediction of two prime time games: Thursday night against the Jets, Monday night against the Raiders in Vegas. If the Bills DO get three prime time games, I bet that it's a Thursday and two Mondays. Not sure that I buy into the idea of them being a Sunday Night Football worthy team just yet.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2020/01/nfl-free-agents-2020-top-50-targets-for-buffalo-bills.html "The Bills had their most successful season in two decades in 2019, but that success was spoiled when a second-half collapse against the Houston Texans led to a first-round exit after blowing a 16-point lead on the road in just the team’s second playoff game of this century. There are holes to fill on Bills general manager Brandon Beane’s roster. He has nine draft picks but with so much money to spend he can also look to fill those holes on the free agent market. There are plenty of potential targets and NYUP.com gathered the Top 50 and broke things down a bit for you to argue why each player may be a fit for the Bills. Let’s start at 50 and work our way to what should be the Bills’ top target in free agency." Lots of interesting names in the article. Everyone knows the obvious ones by now: Ngakoue, Clowney, Cooper, etc...This article, though, points some lesser known and perhaps more realistic options for Buffalo, given Beane's recent "I doubt we'll be in the deep end of the pool" comments. Off the top of my head, I think Jordan Howard, Tajae Sharp, Eric Ebron, and Bryan Bulaga could be of great help on offense, while Gerald McCoy or Michael Brockers would make for a great rotation at 3T and AJ Klein would be great depth/leadership for the LB corps. I am particularly confounded by Jordan Howard. He had two 1,100 yard seasons back to back, then a 950ish yard season. He had a down year in Philly, sure, but he's still just 25 years old and likely won't command a huge contract. I get that RBs are supposedly a dime a dozen these days, but why has this guy so quickly fallen from grace? Anyway...what sayest you, Bills fans? Who catches your eye?

I hate to be that guy, but I'm sitting here wondering what the HELL this thread has to do with the Buffalo Bills?!

No.

His best chance at success would be to get traded to a team with an already established but aging starter. A team with a good infrastructure and culture and coaching staff in place. There, he can sit for a couple of seasons, learn the pro game, and rebuild his confidence. I could see him having a "second life" in the NFL, a la Ryan Tannehill or Rich Gannon. I could just as easily see him having a career similar to Jimmy Clausen. The big question is this: We all already know that Rosen doesn't need the money, so if the going gets tough, does he push through and stick it out and try to get his shot, or does he fold up his tent and walk away? Can't help but feel bad for him for the way his career has started.

I wanted to add this one. Even though PFF makes Bills fans (myself included) angry sometimes, this was an enlightening read. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-how-the-buffalo-bills-built-a-winning-offense We saw how the Bills’ dropback efficiency significantly jumped year-over-year, but the reason behind that isn’t what you might think. The improvement isn’t only due to Josh Allen maturing, but it's also due to the concerted effort by Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and his staff to build an offense that enhanced Josh Allen’s real strengths instead of playing into faulty perceptions of how a strong-armed quarterback should operate. Allen’s prototypical size and cannon-like arm make us associate him with deep passing, and the biggest concerns among draft scouts before he entered the NFL was his low collegiate completion percentage. Many, including us here at PFF, assumed the successful formula for Allen was to replicate what Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane witnessed during their time with the Carolina Panthers during Cam Newton’s 2015 MVP season: build an explosive, downfield offense that produces chunk plays. But when we look into the characteristics of the Bills' passing scheme last season versus this season using PFF data scientist Timo Riske’s team clustering, you’ll see just how much going away from that aggressive style and towards a shorter passing game has worked for the team. The strongest characteristic in last year’s scheme was average route depth, putting it on the same plane as the 2018 Seattle Seahawks and the aforementioned 2015 Panthers. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll built a scheme designed to take advantage of Allen’s deep passing; the problem is that making accurate downfield throws hasn’t been Allen’s strength. Allen struggled as a rookie in those zones, just as the passing map above shows. Allen completed only 12 of his 49 attempts (24.5%) beyond 20 yards and outside the numbers for three touchdowns and five interceptions. We thought Josh Allen would thrive throwing deep, but he just didn’t last season, and he actually has similar efficiency beyond 20 yards this year. Where Allen did succeed was in the 0-10 yard range, completing 71 of his 99 attempts (71.7%) for two touchdowns and one interception last year. That misperception has been corrected this season. Allen is now in a scheme similar to the one of the Eagles or Colts. The characteristics of those schemes are short passes, five-route patterns and screen passes. The Bills’ shift in offensive philosophy is particularly surprising without any year-over-year changes to their quarterback, head coach or offensive coordinator. (*blue is where routes are run more frequently than league average, red less frequently) Looking at the route heatmaps from the last two seasons side by side, you’ll see that longer routes in the middle of the field and down the sideline have gone from above league average to at or below average (blue to white or red). And in the 0-10 yard range, where Allen had his best results, red has flipped to blue, giving Allen more opportunities to make successful throws. Allen still has a tendency to throw beyond the expected target depth based on route distribution, but this year it’s within a normal range of average depth of target (aDOT) as opposed to the outlier number last season. Though they play in a similar scheme, Allen is stretching the field more than Carson Wentz and Jacoby Brissett. Cam Newton was successful in a system like Allen’s last year, but that proved to be more of an outlier for Newton’s career than an example to model on.

Here are a few to start. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/06/03/josh-allen-has-bigger-voice-in-bills-play-calling-this-year/ “Last year, I don’t think I did enough, with everything going on — first year in the NFL and a lot of people pulling you in different directions,” Allen said, via the team’s website. “This year, I sat down with ‘Dabs’ [Brian Daboll] and went over what I like, what I didn’t like. And he’s trusting me in that mindset. If there’s a play that he wants to call, and I don’t like it, he’s not going to call it. So, it’s developing that trust.” https://sports.yahoo.com/josh-allen-bigger-voice-bills-103643484.html http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001032530/article/bills-josh-allen-taking-reins-developing-that-trust https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/nfl/browns/report-brian-daboll-would-play-to-baker-mayfields-strengths-as-cleveland-browns-coach/95-14e8dc51-3aba-4fdd-9aea-32c926839a1d "He has based his entire offense around Josh Allen as opposed to trying to stick Josh Allen into his principles as a play-caller" https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/welcomed-change-josh-allen-and-air-raid-offense That’s when things changed. Brian Daboll scrapped most of what we saw in the first half of the season and decided to implement passing concepts that better suited Allen’s strengths. It was the only way to move forward"

Absolutely. And at the end of the day, in the 2020 and beyond version of the NFL, his rare ability to massively impact the opponent's passing game outweighs his run game struggles. There was recently a chart showing that the Bills had 6 DBs on the field the LEAST of any team in the NFL in 2019 -- Edmunds and Milano allow them to do this. Here's hoping Edmunds' run defense improves over time. After all, he's still younger than much of the upcoming rookie draft class. Still, he'll likely never be an elite run defender based on his size and body profile alone. I have to imagine that a player as tall as he is will more often than not get out-leveraged in the "low man wins" game of blocking and block shedding.