Logic

His weekly pre-game preview on The Athletic. Down at the bottom of the article.

His two incorrect predictions were the Browns and Patriots, I believe. Picked Bills to win in both.

Hey Joe -- I'm curious about something. You seem really certain that the Bills will win the game against the Steelers. I'm curious to know your reasoning. Obviously, the Bills defense should feast on Duck Hodges. Does their defense not worry you, though?

Good stuff. One big problem is that Allen isn't just bad at the deep passes right now, he's comically, HISTORICALLY bad at them. I believe I read that he's 55th in the league right now in completions that travel over 30 air yards. I don't even know how that's POSSIBLE. He's rated worse than guys like David Blough and Courtland Sutton, though, so he's...well....he's pretty damn bad at it right now. If he can improve to league average or even slightly BELOW league average, it'll go a long way toward helping the Bills offense and breaking that vaunted 300-yard game barrier that everyone talks about.

I always feel like there's a fine line to walk when discussing blame for an offense's failures. In the case of the Ravens game, my opinion is that Allen needs to hit a few of those early deep throws. If an offensive coordinator's scheme and gameplan are getting guys wide open 30 yards downfield, it's a good gameplan. It's Josh Allen's job to hit those open receivers. Some will counter by saying that since Daboll knows that the long ball isn't a strength of Allen's, he should be gameplanning ways to get shorter routes open and not depend on Allen to hit those long throws. There may be some merit to that. On the other hand, if a defense chooses to blitz the bejesus out of you and squat on short routes all together, not respecting the deep passing game WHATSOEVER, there's only so much an offensive coordinator can do. We saw this during the Chan Gailey years. At some point, your quarterback needs to be able to punish the defense with long completions when they're packing the box and squatting on short stuff. If Josh Allen is to become the franchise QB we all desperately want him to be, he NEEDS to learn to hit on those deep passes. Otherwise, teams will continue to defend him the way they defended Fitzpatrick: pack the box, squat on short throws, dare the offense to beat you deep. Again, there's only so much Daboll -- or ANY offensive coordinator -- can do if the opposing defense doesn't respect your ability to go deep. Not only that, but with an arm like Allen's, its downright criminal that the Bills aren't able to generate a vertical passing game. This needs to change before I'm willing to assign much blame to Brian Daboll.

Yes sir. I've been putting these up on either Monday or Tuesday every week for the past few weeks. They're all at BillsMafia.com, where they're formatted more nicely and have pictures and such. I just don't advertise that fact because I'm not sure if it violates forum rules.

@Buddo , @BringBackFlutie: Thanks for the great replies. With regard to Daboll: The thing is that we DID see him call blitz-beating plays that worked successfully against the Broncos. There were slants, drags, swing passes, WR screens. The Ravens defense, I feel, did a better job covering those short routes. They sent heat and squatted on the short stuff, daring Allen to beat them deep. Here's the thing: What they did was a huge gamble, because it left receivers open deep all day long. They were betting that Allen wouldn't hit those receivers, and they were right. If he hits, say, just TWO of those open deep receivers early on, it likely causes the Ravens to back off the blitzing a bit -- or at least the cover 0 blitzes, which they employed 16 times -- for the rest of the game. Sometimes it IS on the players to beat the defense they're facing. I WILL say this: I don't understand why the Bills can't seem to execute running back screens to save their lives. It's always either blown up behind the line, it's an incomplete pass, or it's a holding penalty. Some have speculated that the way defenses play Allen -- with an eye on contain and rush lane integrity -- makes screens harder to execute. I don't know if that's true or not, but it's one possible explanation. Whatever it is, the Bills need to spend this offseason drilling the hell out of screens, because they clearly need to employ them if teams are going to play Allen this way. At the end of the day, there are only so many options and answers Daboll can give Allen. If he can't hit open receivers 30 yards downfield, then it will continue to limit what the Bills can do on offense.

The Extra Point - Week 14: Baltimore's Blitz Bonanza Beats Bills Sunday's matchup against a high quality opponent provided a great measuring stick for Buffalo. Unfortunately, they came up short, and in so doing, showed that they still have a ways to go to be among the league's elite. 1.) Ravens blitz Bills out of the stadium, Allen has day to forget. Sunday's game between the Bills and Ravens -- for all of its pre-game buildup and breathless talking points -- can be summed up pretty easily: The Ravens defense blitzed the Bills offense on just about every play, and the Bills didn't have any answers. Time and again, the Ravens sent extra rushers at Josh Allen and time and again, one or more defenders burst through the line untouched and besieged the young quarterback. He was hurried, harassed, flushed, sacked, stripped, and ultimately, defeated by the Ravens defense. This strategy isn't new, of course. Allen's worst outings this season were against New England and Cleveland, who both employed similar strategies. Why doesn't EVERY team just blitz the Bills out of the stadium, you might ask? Well, not every team has the personnel in the secondary to be able to send relentless Cover Zero blitzes and have faith that their defense will hold up on the back end. Unfortunately, the Ravens DO have the necessary personnel, and Josh Allen did not execute well enough on multiple occasions to make them pay for their aggressive hubris. Look no further than the multiple missed long throws in the first quarter to see why the Ravens continued with this strategy right up until the final whistle. Allen looks like a different quarterback -- scared, chaotic, pensive -- when teams successfully attack him in this way, and unless and until he shows that he can consistently beat the pressure and deliver catchable passes to his receivers, teams will continue to follow a similar blueprint. The offensive failures were not ALL on Allen, of course, which leads to our next point. 2.) Allen didn't get much help on a day in which he sorely needed it. The Bills' cast of offensive playmakers didn't do much to help their quarterback on Sunday. There were dropped passes by wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs. There were times when his receivers did not fight for catchable balls. There were times when Allen's pass catchers simply could not escape the Ravens' stifling man-to-man coverage, Both offensive tackles got rather routinely whipped by Baltimore's edge defenders, too. All told, it was a day to forget not just for Josh Allen, but for the entire Bills offense. Seeing how many passes Allen failed to deliver accurately, how many times receivers failed to catch the passes that WERE delivered accurately, and how soundly the Bills offensive line was beaten by the Ravens front seven, I have trouble putting much blame on offensive play caller Brian Daboll. To my eyes, it looked like the players simply failed to execute at a high enough level for most of the afternoon. Moreover, while the Bills have some nice pieces on offense in Beasley, Brown, Singletary, and Knox, I wouldn't say they really have any game-changers on that side of the ball. Take a look at Buffalo's final pass of the game. A true blue chip wide receiver prospect, a true number one, might have made that play. The Bills don't currently have that guy on the roster. Brandon Beane has $90 million and 9 draft picks this coming offseason. Here's hoping he's well aware of the fact that a large chunk of those resources should be devoted to adding offensive playmakers and continuing to improve the offensive line. His shopping list may be long, but "Give Josh all we possibly can to help him succeed" should be in bold, underlined writing right at the top. 3.) Despite failures in execution, Bills offense fought until the end. Even with everything mentioned above -- Allen's bad day, the receivers getting a case of the dropsies, the lack of answers for the blitz --the Bills still had the ball at the 20 yard line in the waning minutes with a chance to tie the game. On a day where it seemed like absolutely NOTHING was going right offensively, the Bills kept grinding and somehow gave themselves a chance at the end. This speaks to the mental toughness and resolve of the offense as a whole and of Josh Allen specifically. It also speaks to the talent of the Bills defense, which brings us to our next point. 4.) Bills defense turns M.V.P. into J.A.G. On all but one play Sunday afternoon, the Bills defense did an absolutely stellar job of containing the Ravens offense. They caused the Ravens -- a team on track to potentially set the all-time record for least punts by a team in an NFL season -- to have multiple 3-and-outs and punt far more than they're used to. They held the potent Ravens rushing attack, best in the league and averaging over 200 yards per game, to just 118 yards. Mark Ingram averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Lamar Jackson, in the midst of a record setting campaign from a rushing yardage standpoint, averaged 3.6 yards per carry. They effectively turned a legitimate M.V.P. candidate into J.A.G -- Just A Guy. Sean McDermott, Leslie Frazier, and the Bills defenders deserve a ton of credit for the performance they turned in on Sunday. Despite all of that, the above paragraph starts with the words "on all but one play...". So, about that play... 5.) Uncharacteristic defensive foible swings the game's outcome. Unfortunately, in the National Football League, you can play outstanding defense all afternoon, stifle an elite running game, and make an M.V.P. candidate look totally pedestrian...and still give up one play that changes the game. Such was the case with the blown coverage that led to Ravens tight end Hayden Hurst's 50+ yard touchdown catch-and-run. Coming into Sunday's game, there are lots of things that would not have surprised me: The Ravens gashing the Bills defense in the run game, Lamar Jackson taking over and adding to his impressive highlight reel. One thing I did NOT expect to see, though, was the Bills defense thoroughly blowing a coverage that resulted in a long touchdown pass for Baltimore. Leslie Frazier's defense simply does not make these kinds of mistakes very often. They are a disciplined, smart, fundamentally sound bunch. Indeed, they were all of those things and more on Sunday -- for all but one play. In a game the Bills lost by one touchdown, it was that one play that decided the game. Consider this: had that scoring play not occurred, the Ravens would have had 17 points rather than 24 points in the 4th quarter, when the Bills -- also with 17 points on the scoreboard -- reached the 20-yard-line at the two minute warning. A Stephen Hauschka field goal, then, would have put the Bills in the lead with less than two minutes to play. Instead, they were forced to go for it on 4th down in an attempt to score seven, and the rest is history. One play -- ballgame. 6.) Odds and Ends. There are a few things I wanted to mention before we wrap up that didn't quite fit in elsewhere. - Tre'Davious White running over and picking up the Ravens play-sheet that blew onto the field and trying to garner some intel from it? Hilarious. That one elicited a smile from Leslie Frazier in his Monday morning press conference. - The officials were absolutely horrendous on Sunday. I rarely like to mention this, because I'm a firm believer that referees are rarely the reason that any team loses a football game. There are just too many other factors in a sport as complex as football to be blaming any outcomes solely on the zebras. Sunday's performance, though, deserves scorn. There were far too many blown calls and missed calls. The Ravens walked the razor's edge of having 12 defensive players in the huddle time and time again, causing the ever well-composed Sean McDermott to be as angry and animated as you will likely ever see him on the Bills sideline. I know reffing NFL games is a tough job, but the officials NEED to do better. - Speaking of angry Sean McDermott, I thought he had a good day. He had his team ready -- schematically and from a fundamentals standpoint, at least -- he mixed it up with the officials when they clearly deserved it, and he made a great call to have the team go for the two point conversion when they did. Even though the clueless CBS announce team badmouthed the move, it was clearly the right decision. If you wait until the end of the game to go for two and fail to convert, the game is over. If you go for two earlier and fail to convert, you at least know how to proceed through the rest of the game. How paid professionals like Dan Fouts could get this basic idea so wrong, I have no idea. Credit, though, to McDermott for getting it right. The Extra Point For weeks and weeks, all Bills fans heard was that the team's record wasn't that impressive because they hadn't beaten anybody good. With that in mind, the stretch of games against Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England presented a great chance for the Bills to quiet their critics and for Bills Mafia to see once and for all just how their team measures up against the better teams in the league. Last Thursday at Dallas, they got off to a great start. This week against Baltimore? Not so much. Still, despite posting their fourth loss of the season, there were silver linings. Buffalo's defense was more effective against the Ravens offense than the likes of New England and San Francisco -- both of whom are rated higher defensively than Buffalo in the league standings. The Bills also had the ball in the waning moments with a chance to tie the game -- another nice feat against a team that many consider the best in the league. Moral victories, it can be argued, are for losers. What the Bills need to ensure just their second playoff trip in the past two decades, is an ACTUAL win -- and they'll have three more chances to get it. Fans need not be discouraged by Josh Allen's poor outing. Quarterback progression is never linear. There are ups and downs, and Sunday was certainly a "down". Let us not forget, though, that the three weeks prior to that were "ups" for Allen. There's no reason to be down on the offensive personnel as a whole, either. It is important to remember that this offense features NINE new starters that weren't Buffalo Bills last season. Not only that -- it's a safe bet that there will be a few MORE new starters on that side of the ball next season, too. The Bills offense simply isn't done being built yet. It needs some game changers. As for the upcoming slate of games and the Bills playoff hopes? There's good news there, too. The Bills are 3-0 following a loss this season. They need only one win in the next three games to guarantee a playoff spot. Their first chance to do so will come next week in front of another national audience on Sunday Night Football. All they'll need to do is win a regular season game at Pittsburgh for the first time since 1975. No big deal. All season long, this young Bills team has shown that they are growing and improving, that they learn from their mistakes. Let us hope, then, that they learn from their loss to Baltimore and apply what they have learned next Sunday night. The whole football world will be watching.

I agree with your overall point. HOWEVER... It's super weird to me to think that John Brown is somehow not a fit for the Ravens offense, but Hollywood Brown somehow is. They're both fast, shifty dudes that have insane speeds and are killer on drags and go routes. They even have the same last name. Does not compute.

I just hope the Bills owner doesn't step in and demand that Rob Johnson act as the "Legend of the Game" for tomorrow's match-up instead...

I agree with the notion that the terrible Jets front office and coaching staff will do their level best to destroy Sam Darnold. Gase, in particular, will be a toxic influence on him. Just look at how good Ryan Tannehil has been ever since he got out from under Gase. I do NOT agree, however, that Darnold will ultimately end up being a bust. I think he's going to be a good player in this league for a long time, despite the Jets' best efforts to ruin him. I expect Allen vs Darnold to be prominent matchup in the AFC East for years to come.

This has been the Pats way of viewing things for Belichick's entire tenure. All games matter, none are bigger than any other, take one game at a time, go 1-0 every week, do your job. Seems to have worked out just fine for them.

I guess I was speaking more of the Bills being susceptible to being gashed on individual runs. I wasn't necessarily talking about the entire course of a game. Sometimes, the Bills defense is prone to parting like the red sea and allowing HUGE allies up the middle. This happened in the Eagles and Browns games, and it happened most recently against the Cowboys. Luckily, the Cowboys went away from the run in the second half for some reason. Ezekiel Elliott had collected 70 rushing yards in the first half alone.

The potential 35 mph wind gives me pause. That being said, "smart money" would tell us that Cole Beasley will have the biggest game. Slot receivers have been pretty productive against the Ravens defense this season. Furthermore, I expect the Ravens defense to bring all sorts of exotic pressures and force Josh to make quick decisions. As such, his trusty outlet and safety blanket Cole Beasley seems like a good bet to put up numbers. HOWEVER...one must never disregard the "revenge game". John Brown will be motivated to show out against the Ravens, methinks.

Thanks for the quality post and welcome to the forum. Hope you stick around after the game, regardless of the outcome. Your writeup is generally pretty spot on, from my perspective. The one thing I'll say is that I really don't see Jackson doing much damage through the air against the Bills. I ESPECIALLY don't see the Ravens receivers having big games. The Bills have the third ranked passing defense, and their specialty is not allowing big plays. They will give up the underneath stuff happily in the name of preventing big plays. They make you dink and dunk your way down the field, betting that you'll make a mistake along the way. The Bills have Tre'Davious White, who has been shutting down opposing number one receivers all season. They have also faced some pretty scary speed threat WRs this year and haven't given up much, if anything, to them. Lastly, weather reports show possible 35 mph winds in Orchard Park on Sunday. Given that fact and the fact that the Bills' defensive weakness is defending the run game, I don't expect a huge passing game output from Baltimore. On the other hand, the Bills defense ABSOLUTELY can be gashed in the running game. I know this sounds strange, but I'm actually less worried about Jackson than Ingram. Buffalo has two defensive specialties: Speed and discipline. Luckily for them, those are the ingredients needed to slow the Baltimore attack. Running sideways or trying to win through straight drop back passing are not recipes for success against Buffalo. Running north and south and then opening up the play action game is the key to victory. Buffalo is prone to stretches of absolutely horrendous run defense. My concern for the Bills defensively is that Baltimore will have their way with them in the run game, thus opening up play action at the second level. At the end of the day, I expect it to be a relatively low scoring game, something like 20-17. Buffalo's best shot at victory is to find a way to match Baltimore score for score and get the ball last at the end with a chance to win it. If the Bills wind up losing, the silver lining for Bills fans will be that the playoffs likely go through Baltimore rather than New England. If and when y'all face off against Belichick's boys for the second time in the playoffs, please do us a favor: KICK THEIR ASS!

I'm not sure if anyone's already said this, but.... If I see that "Free phone football free phone football free phone football" commercial one more ***** time, I'm gonna throw my TV out the window.

I DO get the feeling that we'll be seeing Allen vs Jackson for years and years to come. Throw in Mahomes, Mayfield, and Darnold, and we're looking at a really exciting AFC over the next decade.

Lots of great responses in this thread. A few I saw over and over were Tre White, Josh Allen, and Micah Hyde. Good choices, all. I hope Tre White gets some national exposure in the years to come. If he played literally anywhere other than Buffalo, he'd be a national star.

I know, I know. Difficult question, right? How are you supposed to pick just ONE favorite current Buffalo Bill? Not easy. There are only two rules to this. It's got to be a player currently on the roster or practice squad, and you can only choose one. If you name three or four guys you like, well, that's cheating! I'll start: My favorite current Buffalo Bill is Tre'Davious White. White is my favorite player for a ton of reasons. As the first draft pick of the McDermott era, he kind of set the tone and laid the mold for what McDermott wanted his Bills to be. On the field, he's money. He can play man or zone with great effectiveness, he can press, he can tackle. He is extremely versatile and can do absolutely everything you need a cornerback to do. He always makes clutch plays in the 4th quarter or when the game is on the line. He is a hard worker, an avid watcher of film, and he hustles and gives 100% effort at all times. Aside from what he does as a player, he also seems to be a great guy. He's a family man, a man of faith, and is active in the community. On top of all that, he's absolutely hilarious. His joyful presence brings some much needed light heartedness to the Bills locker room. Watching him dance always cracks me up. Oh, and I almost forgot: The dude's a great goalie. Didn't allow a SINGLE goal in college! Now you.

Nice post. You've already brought more to the table than the other Ravens fans who found their way over here this week. Hopefully you're back to talk ball on Monday if the Bills somehow find a way to win. As Whatdrought mentioned, even if the Bills lose, the silver lining for us Bills fans will be that it hopefully means the path to the Super Bowl goes through Baltimore rather than Foxborough. I would honestly sacrifice this win if it meant ultimately keeping the Patriots out of their fourth straight Super Bowl. One more thing: I expect that somehow, by hook or by crook, there will be a Ravens-Pats re-match in the playoffs. If that happens, I'd be very nervous as a Ravens fan. It's one thing to beat Belichick once in a given season. Doing it twice? Not so easy. Here's to a good game Sunday with no injuries.

Somebody named Christian Alamodis from something called Clutchpoints.com? Pardon me, but why should I give a hoot?

Outstanding post, thanks! I especially like the bolded parts, as it relates to the Bills. Tremaine Edmunds might play the part of the "speedy, agile" defender formerly filled by Kearse. As far as not wanting the QB to know what the coverage was going to look like until the last second -- the Bills defense is as good at disguising coverages as any team in the league. Should be a very interesting Sunday.

I also heard that Josh Allen always knows the EXACT location of Carmen SanDiego!

Cover 1 mentioned on Twitter that the last time Jackson came onto the field against the Bills -- and granted it was in garbage time in a Ravens blowout win -- the Bills came out in a 46 Bear front with Tremaine Edmunds in more of an edge/down-lineman role. Can't help but wonder if that's their plan to stop him this time around. Don't forget that Leslie Frazier was a member of the '85 Bears defense, and he knows the strengths and weaknesses and capabilities of that type of defensive front.

You originally stated that the Ravens have the best secondary in the league. I'm not sure if, with the statement above, you're trying to say that the outcome of ONE GAME is supposed to decide the matter. Is that what you're saying? If so, and if Josh Allen throws for more yards than Lamar Jackson, I assume you'll admit you were wrong? Deciding "best secondary in the league" based on one game is silly. There's a stat to decide the issue, and it's called "pass defense ranking". Bills 3rd, Ravens 13th.