Logic

I wanted to add this one. Even though PFF makes Bills fans (myself included) angry sometimes, this was an enlightening read. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-how-the-buffalo-bills-built-a-winning-offense We saw how the Bills’ dropback efficiency significantly jumped year-over-year, but the reason behind that isn’t what you might think. The improvement isn’t only due to Josh Allen maturing, but it's also due to the concerted effort by Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and his staff to build an offense that enhanced Josh Allen’s real strengths instead of playing into faulty perceptions of how a strong-armed quarterback should operate. Allen’s prototypical size and cannon-like arm make us associate him with deep passing, and the biggest concerns among draft scouts before he entered the NFL was his low collegiate completion percentage. Many, including us here at PFF, assumed the successful formula for Allen was to replicate what Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane witnessed during their time with the Carolina Panthers during Cam Newton’s 2015 MVP season: build an explosive, downfield offense that produces chunk plays. But when we look into the characteristics of the Bills' passing scheme last season versus this season using PFF data scientist Timo Riske’s team clustering, you’ll see just how much going away from that aggressive style and towards a shorter passing game has worked for the team. The strongest characteristic in last year’s scheme was average route depth, putting it on the same plane as the 2018 Seattle Seahawks and the aforementioned 2015 Panthers. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll built a scheme designed to take advantage of Allen’s deep passing; the problem is that making accurate downfield throws hasn’t been Allen’s strength. Allen struggled as a rookie in those zones, just as the passing map above shows. Allen completed only 12 of his 49 attempts (24.5%) beyond 20 yards and outside the numbers for three touchdowns and five interceptions. We thought Josh Allen would thrive throwing deep, but he just didn’t last season, and he actually has similar efficiency beyond 20 yards this year. Where Allen did succeed was in the 0-10 yard range, completing 71 of his 99 attempts (71.7%) for two touchdowns and one interception last year. That misperception has been corrected this season. Allen is now in a scheme similar to the one of the Eagles or Colts. The characteristics of those schemes are short passes, five-route patterns and screen passes. The Bills’ shift in offensive philosophy is particularly surprising without any year-over-year changes to their quarterback, head coach or offensive coordinator. (*blue is where routes are run more frequently than league average, red less frequently) Looking at the route heatmaps from the last two seasons side by side, you’ll see that longer routes in the middle of the field and down the sideline have gone from above league average to at or below average (blue to white or red). And in the 0-10 yard range, where Allen had his best results, red has flipped to blue, giving Allen more opportunities to make successful throws. Allen still has a tendency to throw beyond the expected target depth based on route distribution, but this year it’s within a normal range of average depth of target (aDOT) as opposed to the outlier number last season. Though they play in a similar scheme, Allen is stretching the field more than Carson Wentz and Jacoby Brissett. Cam Newton was successful in a system like Allen’s last year, but that proved to be more of an outlier for Newton’s career than an example to model on.

Here are a few to start. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/06/03/josh-allen-has-bigger-voice-in-bills-play-calling-this-year/ “Last year, I don’t think I did enough, with everything going on — first year in the NFL and a lot of people pulling you in different directions,” Allen said, via the team’s website. “This year, I sat down with ‘Dabs’ [Brian Daboll] and went over what I like, what I didn’t like. And he’s trusting me in that mindset. If there’s a play that he wants to call, and I don’t like it, he’s not going to call it. So, it’s developing that trust.” https://sports.yahoo.com/josh-allen-bigger-voice-bills-103643484.html http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001032530/article/bills-josh-allen-taking-reins-developing-that-trust https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/nfl/browns/report-brian-daboll-would-play-to-baker-mayfields-strengths-as-cleveland-browns-coach/95-14e8dc51-3aba-4fdd-9aea-32c926839a1d "He has based his entire offense around Josh Allen as opposed to trying to stick Josh Allen into his principles as a play-caller" https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/opinion/welcomed-change-josh-allen-and-air-raid-offense That’s when things changed. Brian Daboll scrapped most of what we saw in the first half of the season and decided to implement passing concepts that better suited Allen’s strengths. It was the only way to move forward"

Absolutely. And at the end of the day, in the 2020 and beyond version of the NFL, his rare ability to massively impact the opponent's passing game outweighs his run game struggles. There was recently a chart showing that the Bills had 6 DBs on the field the LEAST of any team in the NFL in 2019 -- Edmunds and Milano allow them to do this. Here's hoping Edmunds' run defense improves over time. After all, he's still younger than much of the upcoming rookie draft class. Still, he'll likely never be an elite run defender based on his size and body profile alone. I have to imagine that a player as tall as he is will more often than not get out-leveraged in the "low man wins" game of blocking and block shedding.

This is such a weird argument to me. There are scores and scores of articles talking about how much ownership Allen had over the scheme, how much influence he had over the offense as a whole. Daboll literally asked him "what do you like? What don't you like?", and built the offense on those answers. And that's just the scheme. As for the play-calling -- which I agree left a lot to be desired at times this season -- Allen had big ownership over THAT, too! He was allowed to audible and check into and out of run and pass plays and set his own protections. There were numerous instances this year of Allen either setting the wrong protections (happened in the playoff game), checking into a run play with disastrous results (the dumb Frank Gore run just before halftime against the Texans), or generally influencing the play before the snap in a way that was not beneficial for the offense. The only critique of Daboll that holds any merit to me is that he sometimes has head-scratching stretches of play-calling at inopportune times. To say that his scheme or play-calling held Allen back, though, is to me the LEAST legitimate complaint one can have about Daboll. He literally built the offense FOR Allen and based largely on his input, strengths, and weaknesses.

The QB who still needs to make big strides, the below average right tackle play, and the below average offensive personnel that led the league in drops and was bereft of game-breaking playmakers? I'm not saying that Daboll should be COMPLETELY absolved of blame, but to say that he should be the SOLE object of blame is silly. It's much easier to point the finger at the offensive coordinator than to admit that your quarterback didn't play well enough and your offensive personnel wasn't good enough. Sometimes its the Xs and Os, sometimes its the Willies and Joes. There's blame to go around. Personally, I'd like to see what Daboll can do with some legitimate offensive personnel and better QB play before I'm ready to let him walk away.

You should probably get a job with an NFL front office, my friend.

At the time? Yes. Because I am not a psychic, I did not know at the exact moment that those players were selected that they would be busts. In both instances, edge rusher was a need, and the Bills took an edge rusher. I suppose you have a 100% success rate in knowing who will and won't be a good NFL player the second they're drafted?

I don't really understand why people do this. Dude spends a while creating a nicely formatted, logically written mock draft. Instead of commenting on what you do and don't like about it, you just copy and paste your OWN mock draft? What's the point of that? Go create a thread of your own if you want comments on your version.

Good job. I have a rule when it comes to the draft: I never, ever get upset at my team for spending premium assets on an offensive or defensive lineman. Football is won and lost in the trenches. I think Bills fans need to come to terms with the fact that the 1st round pick may be spent on a position other than WR. They MAY, in fact, take a WR at that spot, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that they wait until the 2nd-4th rounds and take a couple there. The depth at the WR position suggests that this is a possibility. Furthermore, if you look at 1st round receivers vs 2nd-4th round receivers the past few years, there isn't a huge difference in productivity. Furthermore, while everyone with eyes can see that Allen needs more quality pass catchers, it's not as if adding a high quality RT wouldn't also do wonders for the guy. Every stat out there shows that Allen's effectiveness reduces drastically when he's pressured, and that when he has a clean pocket, he plays quite well. If edge rusher or offensive tackle wind up being the 1st round pick, I won't be upset. Those are both big need positions. If Wirfs falls to 22, it would be really hard not to pick him.

I'd love for the Shenault supporters to share with me what it is they love about him so much. I admittedly haven't watched him all that much, but everyone seems to say that his best traits are his run-after-catch ability and his versatility, that he can play outside, slot, and in the backfield. Well, I've seen those types of players in the NFL before: Percy Harvin, Cordarelle Patterson, Sammy Watkins. I don't want a 'tweener who does most of his damage AFTER he catches the ball. I want a guy who does his damage by running sick routes and getting open and high-pointing jump balls and scoring receiving touchdowns. A player like Shenault sounds all good and well for a team that already HAS dominant outside receivers -- the Bills do not. Can Shenault be a true number 1 receiver in the NFL? Or is he a guy you have to scheme up and figure out creative ways to get the ball in his hands? I want a true wide receiver that can dominate AS A WIDE RECEIVER. Is Shenault that? As I said, I haven't watched him a ton. I'm mostly going off the scouting reports I've read and the discussion of him by various draft analysts and by fans who want the Bills to draft him. What am I missing with this guy?

Same. I have absolutely, positively nothing to base it on. It's just a gut feeling. I'm also leery of taking a one-year wonder (albeit the best year by a quarterback in NCAA history) over a guy like Tua who has done it at a high level for longer. Again, I realize this is batty, but I can't shake the feeling...

K'lavon Chaisson impressed me in last night's game. He has a good chance of being the Bills pick in the first round, in my opinion. McDermott and Frazier will love his versatility. He can rush or drop. He might even be able to play strong side linebacker on 1st and 2nd down and rush on 3rd. Sort of a Lorenzo Alexander replacement. If pick 22 rolls around and there isn't an offensive playmaker they love, they could certainly do a lot worse than adding Chaisson to their front seven.

Nothing says "proportional response to a Twitter spat by a sane and rational individual" quite like flying to someone's city to beat them up.

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If Spotrac's valuation of Shaq Lawson at just under $8million per year is accurate, I want him back. He may not be a 10 sack per year guy, but he's a highly valuable rotational piece for our defensive line. An outstanding run stopper, an aptitude for batting down passes, and a fun, lighthearted disposition that I think fits in well in our locker room. So long as it's not a massive overpay -- and $8mil/year doesn't look like that to me -- I want him back.

Bills led the league in average drive start at the 27.5 yard line. Roberts was top three in kick return yardage. I'm not gonna lose any sleep if they cut him, but to say he is a "non factor" is inaccurate.

Sean McDermott became the second most aggressive 4th down play caller in the NFL. Not sure if that's due to lack of faith in Hauschka, added faith in the o-line/Josh, or input from the new analytics hire. Whatever it was, McDermott's evolution in this regard is very encouraging.

Sometimes guys are better suited for position coach or coordinator duties. Leslie Frazier, for instance, didn't have much success as a head coach, but is an excellent defensive coordinator. Wade Phillips is another one that comes to mind. I'm guessing Panthers fans don't like him because he failed as a defensive coordinator, not as a defensive line coach. I'm sure none of them were complaining during the seven year stretch that Washington coached the DL there and they led the league in sacks.

STILL with this stuff?! Oy vey.

No way the Browns would hire Daboll over McDaniels and Stefanski, right? That seems insane. Browns fans would riot.

I continue to be delighted at the Bills' ability to build a top notch front office and coaching staff. It seems like when quality front office people or coaches leave, they are almost always replaced by people as good or better than them. Dan Morgan stepping into the front office was a great example of this, as is the hire of Eric Washington. Also, having a former head coach as defensive coordinator and having a former defensive coordinator as DL coach -- I like it. Can never have enough great teachers and leaders of men. Awesome hire.

That was great. It's the first the thing that has -- ever so slightly -- soothed the pain from the Texans loss. Hoping Dawkins gets extended soon. He has turned into a real leader and one of the most key players on the team. Hard not to feel excited for the future after reading that. Well done, Shnowman.

I guess when "easily your worst pick" is a guy who has the looks of a Pro Bowl right guard, then you're doing pretty well.

Oh, ya know...just one dude casually telling another dude how good he is at hand massages on a football message board. Nothing to see here.

At least the Panthers stadium experience is great, right? RIGHT?!