Logic

Great post. Especially the bolded.

Fair enough. THAT I can agree with.

Meh. You can cobble together the worst plays of any QB in the league and get a similar video. Now let's see an actual highlight video. Selective editing can paint any picture you want it to.

On the contrary: watching, say, 7 different plays from one game where receivers are open and Allen isn't hitting them DOES begin to tell a story. The story is "our quarterback needs to improve". I could just as easily state that IGNORING visual evidence of poor play and fixating only on play-calling doesn't tell the whole story, only the narrative you want to push. Again: I don't think all the blame is on Allen. I don't think all the blame is on Daboll. BOTH OF THEM aren't performing well. But it certainly is hard to tell how much of Allen's poor performance is due to Daboll calling bad plays, and how much it just APPEARS that Daboll is calling a bad game because the QB can't execute his gameplan. It's really hard to separate these things. It's a complex relationship. And yet, we have plenty of Bills fans who are certain that it's just Daboll that's to blame. It's ridiculous.

I agree that Josh deserves credit for the steps he has already taken as a quarterback. What I DON'T like seeing, though, is people putting on blinders and pretending like he's immune from criticism. He has progressed, yes, but he has a long way to go. He currently has the 30th ranked QB rating and 31st ranked completion percentage in the NFL, for instance. He has thrown just 10 TDs throw 9 games, despite playing some of the worst teams in the NFL. Furthermore, as far as "creating rhythm"...how is an offense supposed to have any rhythm when the quarterback fails to hit open receivers so often? How are we supposed to know what identity the offense WANTS to exhibit when the field general of that offense plays so inconsistently and, at times, poorly? I'm not saying it's JUST on Allen. The Bills offense is a combo platter of suck right now. Daboll deserves some blame. I absolutely agree with that. But to say that he deserves the lion's share of the blame or to try to completely absolve Allen of responsibility for how poor the offense is? That's rubbish. Did you not pay attention at all to the breakdowns and GIFs from the Browns game? Cover 1 already DID show that there were options on some -- not all, it's true, but more than a few -- of the plays in which Allen either took a sack or threw an incompletion. Yes, Daboll can do more to help Allen, but Allen needs to start to learn to help himself. He needs to take more steps toward being a big boy quarterback. It's not all on the OC. Daboll is an easy scapegoat right now, because it's easier to want to fire the OC than it is to admit that the 1st round, prize young QB isn't getting the job done. It's not an either/or proposition. BOTH need to improve. But this "it's all on Daboll!" stuff has gotta stop. It's ridiculous.

If you think Cover 1 has any sort of vendetta against Allen or was pro-Tyrod and looks for ways to bash Allen, you're nuts. Allen wasn't "bad" on Sunday, you're right. But he also wasn't GOOD ENOUGH to beat the Browns. The Browns packed the box against the Bills, blitzed over 40% of the time, and dared the Bills to beat them through the air, and the Bills couldn't. Josh Allen completed 53.7% of his passes and threw zero touchdowns. That's not good enough against an average to below average Browns defense. People who exclusively blame Brian Daboll are ignoring the many plays he calls where wide receivers ARE open and Allen can't or won't throw to them. It happens a lot. It happened a lot on Sunday. I'm not an Allen hater. I like him and want him to succeed. Just look at my avatar. However, to put all of the blame on Daboll and completely absolve Allen is a chickenshit copout, in my opinion.

I agree only to an extent. The fact is that the All-22 footage from yesterday reveals that there were numerous instances where receivers were open and Josh didn't find them. Just with the exact personnel that they already have in-house right now, they would have gotten the job done on Sunday if Allen had played better. The loss isn't all on him, obviously, but his play was a huge factor. I like Allen, for the record. Just look at my avatar. I want him to succeed and I'm nowhere near wanting to bench him or call him a bust or anything like that. Better weapons will help him, sure, but they won't fix everything. It's time for his play to take another step forward, or else defenses will keep beating the Bills the same exact way they did on Sunday. Nailed it.

I have held all along that the Bills would finish 10-6 or 11-5, but after the recent stretch of offensive and run-stopping ineptitude a 9-7 or 8-8 record looks more likely. The Bills feasting on easy opponents early on unfortunately set expectations at unreasonable levels for what is still a very young squad in the midst of a rebuild. The funny thing is that BEFORE the season started, we all would have happily accepted 9-7 with progress from the quarterback. Once the season started the way it did, though, the goalposts were moved. Now people will likely consider 9-7 or 8-8 a failed season. Forget the record for a second and just ask yourself this: Do the Buffalo Bills LOOK like one of the 12 best teams in the league? I picked the number 12 because that's how many teams make the playoffs each year. The Bills, to me, do NOT look like one of the league's 12 best teams. When you watch them play and then go and watch the Patriots or 49ers or Seahawks or Saints or Packers, it's absolutely crystal clear that the Bills are just not on that level. What it will take to GET to that level is open for debate, but the Bills aren't there yet.

Every response so far in this thread is pretty much on the money. Passing game needed to beat the Browns' cover 1 looks and couldn't. The Bills need two things: a stud #1 receiver and for their quarterback to play better.

I don't disagree that the Bills could use an upgrade on the offensive line this offseason -- specifically at RIGHT tackle. However, with regard to your second sentence: Just about EVERYONE in the NFL gets beat my Myles Garrett. He's tied for the league lead in sacks. No whiz kid rookie is going to come in and stymie that guy, either. He's arguably the best (or at least in the top three) edge rusher in the entire NFL.

On Sunday, during and after the game, I was absolutely furious that Singletary didn't get more carries. HOWEVER...reading through Daboll's presser comments and watching All-22 footage that seems to back them up, what he says rings true: The Browns basically packed the box all game long and dared the Bills to beat them through the air. You can make the argument that the Bills should have just run the ball anyway and tried to impose their will on the Browns, but I'm not sure how much success they would have had against all the 8 and 9 man boxes the Browns were presenting. What the Bills did instead was to try to force the Browns to back off by beating them through the air. The only problem was that the Bills couldn't/didn't beat them through the air, so the boxes kept getting stacked and the pressure kept coming. You'd like to think in these types of situations that the QB you selected in the 1st round would have the ability to make the opposing defense pay for over-committing to the run by punishing them through the air -- he could not. He did not. Less of my irritation and concern is directed toward Brian Daboll now, and more of it is directed at Josh Allen. He NEEDS to be able to make defenses pay when they do this, and he couldn't. He needs to step up. He needs to get better. If he doesn't, teams will just keep on doing this.

Haven't actually listened to them or read any transcripts. To be honest, aside from this article, I have completely abstained from any Bills related coverage or pressers until this morning. I needed a couple days to decompress after that excruciating loss. From what little I have gathered this morning, Daboll seems to have said that the Browns basically completely stacked the box and dared the Bills to beat them with the pass, and Buffalo couldn't get it done. The All-22 footage I'm watching seems to back up that claim. Essentially, the Browns loaded the box, dared the Bills to run into 9-man fronts, and blitzed the hell out of Allen. This being the case, it's actually a game where a Duke Williams might have come in handy to win some 50-50 jump ball blitz beaters against single coverage. I guess I'm a little bit less angry that they didn't force-feed Singletary the ball now that I have had a chance to digest the defensive looks the Browns were showing. More of the blame, then, shifts to Allen and the passing offense for not calling the Browns' bluff and torching them through the air. The "book" on how to beat the Bills passing offense has been out since the New England game. Load the line of scrimmage with defenders and show varied and muddled defensive looks and force Allen to make the right pre and post snap decisions. It's up to the Bills -- specifically Josh Allen -- to figure out how to overcome that. Daboll can give him some easier answers, sure, and the receivers can do a better job of getting open. In the end, though, it's on Allen. It's big boy time. He needs to take his game to the next level.

Just one bump for the evening crew and then I'll let this thing die its death.

Great point. As I sat back and thought over yesterday's game, it occurs to me that every single phase of the Bills failed them at one point or another. It really and truly was a team loss. The defense gave up that easy first touchdown drive, didn't keep the Browns out of the end zone at the end, and didn't collect any turnovers despite going against a turnover prone QB. The offense...well...we all know. The special teams accounted for two missed field goals. The coaches made multiple head scratching decisions. All three phases of the team AND coaching contributed to the loss. Extremely frustrating and disheartening. Thanks for the comments.

Thanks. It's fine. I post this column on BillsMafia every week. I just copy and paste it here in case anyone wants to discuss it. I have two things going against me: One, my columns are ***** long. LOL. Two, after this week's game, I don't think people are in a mood to do a deep dive into the team's failures. It's all good. No skin off my back.

Great observations. Spreading the field with less condensed sets and thus unpacking the box and creating more space for our runners may be the way to go. So too might running plays at a faster pace. One thing's for sure: The offense needs to find SOME kind of identity, SOMETHING to hang its hat on. Right now, they're just a whole lot of "blah".

I’m back this week with another edition of The Extra Point. Last week, a Bills win made it so that I couldn’t WAIT to sit down and write about the team. This week, my desire to write takes on more of a…therapeutic role. Here goes. 1.) Maybe the critics are right. An awful lot of attention has been paid this year by the Bills players and fans to the fact that the national media doesn’t believe in them. For the third time this year they had the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong, and for the third time, they failed. While the Browns didn’t boast the pedigree of teams like the Eagles and Patriots, they represented a supremely talented opponent and a chance for the Bills to thumb their nose at those silly Vegas odds makers for declaring the Bills the underdogs. A Bills win today and a subsequent 7-2 record would have gone a long way toward changing the national narrative. Instead, the Bills looked like a walking embodiment of the old Dennis Green “We are who we thought they were!” rant. Another strong defensive performance. Another listless offensive performance. Another wide open receiver running down the field for Buffalo, watching the ball sail 8 yards past him. Another winnable game, lost. At some point, if you want to earn national respect, you have to go out and take it. The Bills once again failed to do that on Sunday, and fans are left to wonder whether they are capable of doing it at all. 2.) Sometimes it’s the Xs and Os, sometimes it’s the Willies and Joes. The tendency after a loss is to want to figure out who and what was primarily to blame for the outcome. Against the Browns, the Bills coaches and players were both to blame. The lack of carries — the Bills only ran the ball 13 times all day — for Gore and Singletary were baffling, sure. But within the scope of the offensive game plan that WAS utilized, there were plays to be made, and the players often did not make them. Josh Allen again failed to complete a deep pass to a wide open receiver that may ultimately have led to a Bills victory. He also had a costly fumble in the red zone that Jon Feliciano luckily had the alertness and athleticism to recover, saving Buffalo’s offense from catastrophe. There were numerous failures to convert manageable 3rd and shorts and 4th downs. And what of the Bills defense? It’s easy to question the call to send pressure against Mayfield on his 4th quarter touchdown throw to Rashard Higgins, but that would ignore how badly Higgins beat Levi Wallace on the play. Sometimes it’s the Xs and Os, sometimes it’s the Willies and Joes, and on Sunday, both deserved blame for the Bills’ loss. 3.) Keep it simple, stupid. After a string of games in which the Bills were mostly unable to exhibit any kind of offensive identity, they finally stumbled upon a formula that worked last week against the Redskins: give Devin Singletary the ball early and often. Singletary was a revelation, touching the ball 24 times against the Redskins for 140 yards and a score. On an offense mostly devoid of playmakers and clearly incapable of executing a competent vertical passing game, Singletary made it clear that he was the most explosive player the Bills had in their offensive arsenal. This week, it seemed like a safe assumption that the Bills would continue to give Singletary the ball — especially considering that they were facing an opponent that was giving up 141 rushing yards per game. Instead, to the extreme frustration of Bills fans everywhere, they gave him the ball just eight times. The Bills, in fact, only ran the ball 13 times total — and on a day when they were never far behind on the scoreboard, no less. Josh Allen, by comparison, threw the ball 41 times. Now I readily admit that I don’t know one tenth as much about play-calling as professional football coaches do, but even I know that giving Singletary the ball just eight times while asking Josh Allen to throw it 41 times is a losing recipe. Football can be a really complicated game. Sometimes, though, the best answer is the simple answer. The Bills, with a mauling and nasty offensive line that is better at run blocking than pass blocking, an explosive rookie running back, and facing an exploitable run defense, just needed to give Singletary the ball. I mentioned above that the offense needs to make more plays regardless of what the game plan calls for, and that’s true. But it’s the coaches job to put their players in the best position to succeed, and it’s nearly impossible to see how Brian Daboll did that today. 4.) “We’re not in Foxborough any more, Toto”. Given the seemingly obvious good fortune of having a rookie running back with a hot hand and facing an opponent who is bad at stopping the run, it seems absolutely crazy that Brian Daboll rolled out the gameplan that he did. So why did he do it? It has become clear over his two seasons with the Bills that Daboll wants to import the New England offensive philosophy of tailoring each week’s offensive gameplan to the opponent in a highly specific way. The Patriots offense looks different every week. Sometimes they’re a power run outfit, sometimes they sling the ball all over the field. It makes sense, in theory, to want one’s offense to possess this type of flexibility. The problem for Brian Daboll is that the offense he currently oversees in Buffalo does not seem to have the personnel to execute this type of varied offensive scheme. They certainly don’t have Tom Brady behind center. Josh Allen is an ascending player who looks to have a bright future, but his ability to consistently threaten defenses with his arm is not yet at the level where the Bills should ever consider such pass heavy offensive game plans. I understand Daboll’s desire to have his offense be adaptable and multiple, but the Bills don’t seem to have the horses to accomplish that task. With that being the case, the only reasonable thing to do is scrap the “highly specific, tailored gameplan” stuff and go with what works: Running the ball, controlling the clock, and setting up play-action opportunities. 5.) The Dick Jauron Award for “Bend but don’t break” goes to…The Bills defense deserves major credit for the Bills even being in the game in the fourth quarter to begin with on Sunday. Yes, they gave up too many rushing yards. Yes, they allowed the Browns to score the go-ahead touchdown with just minutes left in the fourth quarter. At the end of the day, though, they allowed only 19 points and tallied two points of their own on a safety. That should be good enough for a win most weeks. Their eight-play goal line stand culminating in a 4th down stop was a thing of beauty. Later, with the Browns again in the red zone and poised for a back breaking touchdown, the Bills defense held them to just a field goal. Once again, they failed to collect a turnover, but they played good team defense throughout the game and did a good job limiting the points scored against them. If you need a bright spot to focus on after Sunday’s heartbreaking loss, go back and watch Tre’Davious White’s performance. White did an absolutely masterful job shutting down Odell Beckham Jr. If there is one Buffalo Bill that deserves more national attention and praise, it’s White. He shadowed OBJ on all but 10 plays and essentially turned him into a non-factor. With his stellar play this season, #27 has catapulted himself onto the short list of best cornerbacks in the league. 6.) Tale of two halves, redux. Just like in last week’s game against the Washington Redskins, the Bills defense looked positively toothless against the run in the first half. The Browns were seemingly running the ball at will, with Nick Chubb breaking off three runs of 15 or more yards. Sometimes the defensive tackles were pushed off the ball. Sometimes the linebackers took bad angles or got lost in the wash. Whatever the cause on a given play, the Bills defense looked like it was in for another long afternoon against the run. Then a funny thing happened: The second half began. Just like in last week’s game, the Bills defense flipped some sort of switch. While they didn’t completely stymie the Browns running game in the second half, they undoubtedly curtailed its effectiveness. Instead of runs of 15 and 20 yards, the Browns were getting gains of 3 to 5 yards. What is Leslie Frazier saying to the players in the locker room at halftime? What adjustments are they making? Why can’t they seem to replicate their recent second half run-stopping efforts in the first halves of games? What gives? Things don’t get any easier in the run defense department, with a rematch against a Dolphins team that already gashed the Bills on the ground once this year on deck, and games against the Cowboys and Ravens still to come. The Extra Point This one hurts. Bills losses always hurt, at least a little bit. But this one REALLY hurt. The Patriots game was upsetting, sure, but Bills fans could tell themselves that if Allen hadn’t been knocked out of the game, things might have been different. The Eagles game was disheartening, sure, but the Bills were simply outclassed by a superior opponent. For some reason, those types of losses are easier to take. If the guys lining up across from your team are just better, then so be it. There’s nothing you can do. But when the opponents AREN’T clearly better, when the game is there for the taking and some combination of bad coaching and bad execution causes a loss in a game that could have been a win — those losses really hurt. This game had the sting and the stink of so many bad BIlls losses of the past. Games against the Browns are strange. They always are. Whether it’s a Bills running back dropping a pass in the end zone in a playoff game, a kicker missing wide right on Monday Night Football, or a hideous punt bonanza that the Bills somehow lose 6-3, Browns game are strange. Today was the latest chapter in a nightmarish tome authored over the years on the shores of Lake Eerie. This game hurt because there were so, so many missed opportunities and squandered chances. There were bungled third and shorts and failed 4th down conversions. There was bad play calling and bad execution at inopportune times. Most egregiously of all, there was the absolutely horrendous final Bills drive, in which the Bills coaches exhibited a hideous double-dip of coaching no-no’s: Poor clock management and playing to tie rather than playing to win. Indeed, between the missed opportunities, the poor play-calling, the lackluster execution, and the head-scratching clock management, the Bills squandered multiple precious opportunities today. They squandered the opportunities to win the game, to take a commanding lead in the AFC playoff race, to exorcise the ghosts of Browns games past, and most of all, to prove to the nation at large that they’re contenders instead of pretenders. The road certainly doesn’t get easier from here, with games against opponents like Dallas, New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh looming. Even games against opponents like Miami and Denver no longer seem like sure Bills victories, such is the strength of the impression of ineptitude that the Bills have left in recent weeks. I pleaded with Bills fans last week in this space to learn to enjoy the Bills’ winning ways while still wanting and demanding more from the team. I spoke of the dangers of falling into the trap of extremes. To be clear: the Bills’ season is not over. Their hopes are not dashed. They are 6-3 — still a darn good record for a team that many picked to win no more than six games ALL YEAR — with the opportunity to make the playoffs still in front of them. However, if the Bills don’t figure out a way to create greater offensive production and iron out their coaching foibles quickly, Bills fans will begin to feel another old, familiar sinking feeling all too common to this fan base the past 20 years: "Here we go again”.

Yeah. I'm sure YOUR take is right. I'm sure it's just one guy's fault ?

The instantaneous judgement of draft picks is so ridiculous. Eight games in and many fans are ready to declare a player a bust. It's madness.

Fair enough. A key point to remember with Oliver, I think, is that he DOMINATED lower level competition his entire life. I doubt he had to employ much advanced hand usage or really learn the position very thoroughly. I bet it was just "beat your man" or "hold/split your double team", and he was so talented and superior to the competition that he could do those things without understanding the nuances of the position. He has said as much himself. He seems/seemed surprised and newly cognizant of all the work he needs to put in, the hand usage, scheme knowledge, and technical nuance he needs to learn. But he knows he needs to learn it, he seems EAGER to learn it, and he's in a room with great coaches and veteran players who can teach him. For the reasons listed above, I'm not worried about him. Similar to Josh Allen as a rookie, he's getting by on sheer physical talent right now. Once he actually learns the game (and has a full offseason in an NFL weight and training program), he'll be a killer.

He has the third highest pass rush win rate of any defensive tackle in the NFL. John Randle and Warren Sapp -- two Hall of Fame penetrating DTs -- had one and three sacks in their rookie years, respectively. Ed Oliver is doing fine. He's not lighting the world on fire, but few rookie DTs do. Aaron Donald is the exception, not the rule. Oliver is going to be fine. He's ALREADY been fine. Lack of sacks are the only reason people seem to think otherwise and, like I said, rookie DTs rarely pile up sacks. I give the first half of his rookie season a B to B-, with room for improvement but no worry on my part that he'll be anything other than a very good player.

The thing that bugs me with the Star talk is that everyone on the Bills -- coaches, players (young and old), everyone -- says he does his job and does it well. Meanwhile, fans -- not even analysts, really, just regular fans -- swear up and down that he stinks. So who should I believe? The coaches and players? Guys like Leslie Frazier and Lorenzo Alexander? Or armchair quarterbacks and message board "experts"? The big disconnect, in my opinion, likely comes down to what the guy is paid. If he had an average contract, no one would talk about him much. Because he gets paid a lot, Bills fans like to scapegoat him and whine endlessly about him. Maybe, just maybe, there's more to the Bills' recent run defense problems than just one player's performance? Maybe, just maybe, fans don't always know what the hell they're talking about?

When you look at a football matchup to try to decide who has the edge, you usually look at three factors: Coaching, Quarterback, and Defense. I would say that ALL THREE of those factors currently go in Buffalo's favor. I'm not saying Josh Allen is better than Baker Mayfield, but he certainly has been PLAYING better than Baker the past few weeks. So coaching, quarterback, defense? Buffalo. And yet? I can't shake the feeling of a Bills loss this Sunday.