Logic

"Half as much" is not accurate, but it is true that in the context of trading draft picks, they lose one round of value for each year into the future that they are. So a 2025 2nd is equivalent in value to a 2024 3rd, and a 2026 2nd is equivalent in value to a 2024 4th. Now, this formula only speaks to the value of picks in relation to their use in trades. If you look at any draft trade chart, be it Jimmy Johnson's or Rich Hill's, you'll see that this is true. That said, even if we consider the pick to be of 3rd round value, it STILL seems like a good return for a 30 year old WR on what has become a one-year deal. One need look no further than the compensation given up for Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Diontae Johnson, etc -- not to mention the comparative compensation given up for guys at other positions like Sneed and Burns -- to see that Beane did quite well. All of that said, there's a pretty good chance the pick winds up being a high one next year. Assuming the Vikings have a losing record -- not a crazy assumption if they start a rookie or Sam Darnold -- we could be looking at something like the 38th to 45th pick in the draft!

Figured today would be the perfect day to discuss this masterpiece. Currently listening in headphones to Dark Side of the Moon at work in honor of eclipse day. Have always loved this album. From the first time I ever heard it as a stoned teenager, through dozens of listens (always in full sequential order), to the present day. It's perfect. Whether I lay back and close my eyes and listen in headphones, or crank it loud on the sound system, or sync it up with the Wizard of Oz. It's just always the masterpiece I remember it as. The sonic landscape it creates blows me away every time. Any other fans? Detractors? People who think it's a lot of hype about nothing? (If that's you, you're wrong, by the way). If I inspire one person to spin this album today, I've done my job. Happy listening.

Bryan DeArdo is normally foolproof, too.

I agree. I thought the finale was just exactly perfect. Then again, I loved the Seinfeld finale, and have agreed with Larry all these years that there's nothing to defend or apologize for. Curb was an amazing series, and in its peak moments, it equaled and occasionally surpassed Seinfeld. Crazy to think that it's been on (and sometimes off) for 24 years now! So long, Larry. No lessons learned.

With the 75th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Michael Hall Jr, DT, Ohio State Hall's size causes him to drop to the third round, but his active hands, short area quickness, and ability to win one-on-ones have us convinced he can be a valuable rotational piece on our defensive line. Hall was dominant at times at the Senior Bowl, and we're willing to bet that with a bit of time in an NFL weight room, Hall can make up for any size deficiencies he may have. We want to get stronger in the trenches, and Hall helps us do that. @Big Blitz and the Denver Broncos are now on the clock. **Sorry for the delay everyone. Honey-do list errands. Happy wife, happy life. Apologies.**

I appreciate the post. However, Julio Jones (who the Falcons made a move similar to what we're discussing here for the Bills) and Mike Evans are likely headed to the Hall of Fame, and Ja'Marr Chase has certainly shown that kind of talent, too (though obviously he needs to sustain it for a decade+ to have a shot at the Hall). My point is that yes, sometimes you strike out when you draft a receiver early. But sometimes you also draft an elite player, and maybe even a Hall of Fame player. Ask the Bills front office that traded up for Watkins if they regret their decision, and they'll surely tell you they do. But ask the Falcons front office that traded up for Julio Jones if they regret THEIR decision, and they'll surely tell you they don't. Again, it all comes down to risk tolerance. No one is refuting that there is great risk inherent in trading up for a receiver. There is also potentially great reward. Those who feel that you should "never" trade up in the draft for a receiver are, in my opinion, simply opposed to taking the risk that that move represents. Those of us who don't mind the idea, and maybe even advocate for it, are willing to accept the risk. As I've stated previously in this thread, I think the Bills need more elite playmakers around Josh Allen, and I think their best chance at adding an elite playmaker to the offense in this draft is to trade up for Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, or Brian Thomas. None of those players are sure things. They're impressive enough prospects, though, that I'm okay with taking the risk.

I'm on record here as agreeing with that take. I believe a plea to a lesser charge, a fine, and minimal league discipline is the most likely outcome. I do not believe for a second that Rice will go to jail, because that's not how the American justice system tends to work for rich athletes. Still, the possibility of jail time exists, and to pretend that it doesn't is silly.

In all seriousness... If you can make this exact trade happen, I'll get a deluxe manicure, give you my home address, and cook you lobster tails beforehand.

I don't think the Kincaid and Cook outlooks are too optimistic. Cook already WAS statistically a top 10 running back last year, and Kincaid has the look of a year two breakout star. I like Shakir a lot, but it could be argued that that's the only one on your list that might be a bit optimistic, if only because I expect Curtis Samuel and a soon-to-be-signed vet WR to eat up some of his opportunities.

Thanks for this nugget. Allen also mentioned him first when recently asked about WRs in this year's draft. He seemed pretty knowledgeable about the class, and Nabers was the first name out of his mouth. He wanted Kincaid last year. Obviously, circumstances are quite different this year with Nabers being expected to go so high, but...we shall see. I think Joe Schoen at 5 would be the perfect trade partner. Failing that, the Bears at 9 seem very logical, too, should Odunze fall that far.

For what it's worth, I've since seen the "this much pot is a felony!" part redacted, and the correction noted that it is in fact a misdemeanor. Nevertheless, between the pot and his admitting that he was driving the Lambo, chargeable offenses are starting to pile up for Rice. The main questions are: How lenient will the judge be, given that he's a start athlete? How effective will his lawyer be in pleading the deal down to a lesser offense and avoiding jail time? I think that the key determining factor in Rice's NFL career going forward will be whether or not he serves time in jail. If he winds up, say, paying a fine and settling out of court with the victims and doing community service, I think he'll get a 2-6 game suspension, do the usual Mea Culpa token apology tour, and go on with his career. If he serves time in jail, all bets are off.

Incredibly hard for me to see how Beane's personnel decisions are more to blame for the 13 seconds game than McDermott's coaching failures or the players' execution failures. Ditto the Bengals game the following year and the Chiefs playoff game this year. We can all argue 'til we're blue in the face about who deserves what share of blame for which losses, but at the end of the day, two things stick out to me: 1.) The Bills have been very good for four straight seasons. From wins accrued, to division titles, to offensive and defensive rankings, to scoring differential. If there was a waited metric that took all of these into account, it would have only the Chiefs ranked higher. The only thing missing has been a championship which, yes, is obviously the main thing. 2.) Beane DOES get heat! He's getting a ton as we speak! There are TVs always set to ESPN and NFL Network in my workplace lobby, and I haven't been able to walk past a TV the past few days without seeing the Bills get excoriated. All I'm seeing and hearing is "the Bills ask Josh Allen to do too much" and "the Bills' window is closed". I'm just really not sure where people are getting this "Beane doesn't catch any heat" stuff. He absolutely does. The Bills are one of the most criticized times in football the past two years. The "they ask Allen to do too much" narrative, in particular, has been loud and constant, and that's a direct criticism of Brandon Beane's roster construction.

The Bills have won the 2nd most games in the league since 2020. They've won four straight division titles. The only possible reason to say he "deserves" criticism is because they haven't won a title. But if that's the case, then 31 GMs every single year deserve criticism. Looking at moves in a vacuum for any GM across the league, you're going to see some moves that worked and some that didn't. No GM is immune to mistakes. But looking at the total output and production of a team gives you a sense of what kind of job the team's architect has done. The fact remains that only the Chiefs have won more games than the Bills since 2020, that they've won their division four years in a row, and that they are contenders year in and year out. You want perfection? Go watch a Kurosawa film or listen to a Betthoven sonata. Beane is a very good GM. P.S. Brandon Beane DOES receive criticism, and if you don't see it, then you're not looking in the right places. Go turn on ESPN, Fox Sports 1, or listen to any drive time football radio show, and you'll hear scores of criticism of Beane and his Bills. Heck, the buzziest phrase in football the past two season has been "the Bills window is closed". If you're angry at Brandon Beane and want to criticize him, then just say that. Don't manufacture an immunity to criticism that he does not actually possess.

You and I are not on the same page here. Graham and Wawrow are credible people in my book. One can have whatever personal opinions they want about those guys, but I have never been given any reason to doubt their professional credibility. Graham admits that he didn't hear what Diggs actually said to Allen, but I have no reason to believe he would make up Allen's response. I believe him.

Graham claims he didn't report it at the time because he couldn't hear what Diggs actually said, and that for all he knew it could have been a compliment/praise that hit Allen the wrong way (though unlikely). He says he wishes, in retrospect, that he had reported that incident at the time. To be honest, though, what good would it have done the Bills? I'm kind of glad he didn't.

@Herc11 just posted a snippet of this above, but for those that haven't listened, you really should (at least to the part that Herc linked to above). It tells a previously untold anecdote about Diggs coming up to Josh after the week 1 Jets game, when his spirits were really low, and saying something quietly to him (the reporters couldn't hear what) that made Josh flip out on him and shout "IT'S ONLY ONE ***** GAME!". Graham says everyone else was consoling Allen, dapping him up, encouraging him, and along came Diggs, saying something that pissed him right off. Just interesting, and as far as I know, previously unreported up until now.

Nice try, FBI.

I hear you, but also... Jim Harbaugh. Greg Roman. It wouldn't surprise me to see them take a top tackle and get a receiver later. The coach and OC both strike me as old school "trenches before weapons" guys.

Great point. Thanks! Yes, KC had a cast of also-rans at WR the past couple seasons, but they also had a HOF #1 target that always came up big in big moments. Turn on a Chiefs playoff game from the past two years and what do you see? Kelce coming up with clutch plays when it counts. If I ask you to close your eyes and picture which offensive player other than Josh Allen has come up big in big moments in the playoffs the past few years, who comes to mind? For me, it's NO ONE. Maybe Gabe Davis in the Chiefs playoff game, but he's gone now. The Bills need that guy. Kincaid, as you say, may become him. We hope that's the case. But hope is not a strategy. I'd like to try to get another guy that we think has "big in big moments" potential. Let's find that guy for Josh.

Thanks. I appreciate your position. I think it just comes down to risk tolerance. This year, my risk tolerance is high. That's not always the case for me. This year, it is. I've seen the Bills build a roster of good players around Josh Allen, and I've seen the results. I'm ready to take a swing for a GREAT player. And I do understand your argument that no draftees are sure things, and we can potentially get a great player at 28, too. I also feel like a game-changing WR CAN be absolutely crucial to a team's success. I think the market is showing us that, with WRs starting to get $30million+ per year contracts. The market shows us where the league values positions, and right now, NFL GMs value elite receivers. Yes, we can point to the Chiefs winning two Lombardis after trading away Tyreek Hill, but...they have Mahomes and Reid. They're the exception rather than the rule, I think. Anyway, again, I respect where you're coming from and your explanations of why. I just find myself sitting on the opposite end of that ideological spectrum right now.

The other thing I like about Nabers is that I believe the Bills need a guy that commands a lot of attention from defense, in order to open things up for the Shakirs and Kincaids and Cooks of the world. Diggs has been that guy for four seasons. He commands safety help and lightens boxes. We don't know WHAT the Bills offense will look like when defenses don't have a guy like that to account for and can defend them more "honestly". Getting a Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze gives them the alpha that good offenses need in order to dictate to defenses and simplify coverage. Adding a playmaker like that makes all of the other offensive players better, because the defense has to focus attention and resources on the alpha.

You're right, of course. I also think that sometimes rare talents come out in the draft, and everyone can see from a mile away that they're rare talents. To me, that's the case this year with MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze. They're not your Uncle's 1st round receivers. They're DUDES. In order to get guys like that, you have to pick early. Yes, sometimes guys picked later (Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs) turn out to be great, too. But personally, I'd rather trade up for a SPECIAL prospect than hope that I'm lucky enough to get one at 28. That may not be the case every year, but it's the case for me this year, because of where the Bills are in their build and salary cap, and because of how special the top three WRs look to me.

LITERALLY for kicks.

His reasoning was that the pick in the 7th is very late, so rather than use it on a guy who may not make the roster or may get poached off the practice squad, why not use it to replace 30 year old Reid Ferguson and save that (small) amount of salary cap space. He also claims this fellow is the best long snapper in college football. I suppose it's the same rationale as drafting a punter. Maybe you'd rather at least take a player who will make your roster than a player at a more traditional position who likely gets cut or poached. That said...do long snappers EVER get drafted? Aren't they almost always UDFAs?