Logic

I'm with you 100% If there's one bugaboo that I can't overlook in a wide receiver draft prospect, it's separation. The major problem with the Bills' passing offense was that guys weren't getting open. They weren't gaining separation. Adding Keon Coleman does not seem like it would fix what ails us. Give me someone a bit smaller and slighter, but who can gain cleaner and more consistent separation, please and thank you.

Thanks for that post. Outstanding. I agree. If the Bills don't trade up for one of the big three, Franklin is the guy I'd like to see drafted by the Bills.

Good one. I'm highly dubious as to his ability to be a traditional NFL receiver. But as a move player, big slot, TE/WR hybrid that's used situationally and in the red zone? I think he could have some real value. Put him up against a 5'9" slot corner and throw it up high to him. Let the big man work.

A-E-DUB! A-E-DUB! A-E-DUB!

Just as the title says. In your opinion, what player is the draft community too low on, that you think will (or at least should) be drafted higher than where the analysts and the draftniks have him going currently? I'll start: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon. I get it, it's a great WR class. Still, for all you hear about the big three, Brian Thomas, AD Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman...Troy Franklin tends to be an afterthought. Yes, he's skinny. He's also fast, silky smooth, has legitimate ability to win deep, and posted quality production at Oregon the past two years, including 1383 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2023. To me, he's akin to a Devonta Smith, Chris Olave type, if perhaps a step down (though not a big one) in overall talent from those two. I think everyone is too low on Troy Franklin. I'm not sure that, after the big three receivers, he's not the next best guy. I like him a lot. So who's yours? Which player is the draft community too low on?

Eagles Titans Raiders And I'm also more than happy to give up my spot so someone new can do it since I participated in the last one. Thanks Virgil.

I keep coming back to two of Brandon Beane's comments. The first was "how many different things can you do? Inside? Outside? How versatile are you?". The second was his repeated mentioning of yards-after-catch. They both keep bringing me back to Malik Nabers, Xavier Legette, and Malachi Corley. All three have serious yards-after-catch ability, all three have some degree of inside-outside versatility (Nabers especially). I think Beane's (and maybe Brady's) ideal vision for a receiving corps is a bunch of guys who can more or less play any of the positions. Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir both have inside-outside versatility. Diggs had it. I think they want it in the guy(s) they draft. I think they want to be able to put Samuel, Shakir, and the draftee(s) out on the field and be able to put any of them in any of the WR spots, without telegraphing to the defense from snap to snap who will be lined up where. It's probably a dumb and overly optimistic thing to think, but assuming he's not the first WR off the board, I have this weird feeling that the Bills really love Malik Nabers and want to try to find a way to make him a Buffalo Bill. He just ticks all of Brandon Beane's boxes. Explosive athlete, elite production, outstanding after the catch, positional versatility. All of it. He also instantly elevates gives the Bills a viable WR1 and elevates the entire receiving corps in a way that whoever they pick at 28 likely doesn't. Here's hoping I'm right and that Beane is feeling saucy come draft night.

Saw this chart on The Ringer today (part of a fun but silly article which nevertheless had some nice info hidden amongst the jokes). Not a great look for Brian Thomas Jr and Adonai Mitchell, with the takeaway being that while they have everything you want from a physical standpoint and have both shown the POTENTIAL to be good, their college production (not just raw numbers, but yards per route run relative to their target rate) is lacking. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/4/9/24124742/best-wide-receivers-2024-nfl-draft-class-marvin-harrison-jr-malik-nabers-rome-odunze

Regarding Elam and Burks: If we're taking a swing at a third year breakout player, I'd rather have a talented man cover corner be the guy that breaks out while on my roster than a receiver. I think the latter are easier to find than the former. That said, the new Titans regime has no ties to Treylon Burks, so if they're willing to flip him to us for a late round pick (think 5th or later) then I'd be on board. I like low risk, high reward swings on former first and second round picks. Burks is a guy I'd be willing to gamble on, provided the compensation needed to acquire him is relatively meager. He's dealt with injuries, sure, but the Titans passing game has also just generally been a wasteland for lots of guys the past few years. Who's been slinging the rock? The ghost of Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, rookie Will Levis...yuck! So it's a no for me on an Elam swap, but a yes to Burks if he can be had for cheap.

Haha. Point taken, but...Don't shoot the messenger. I'm not the one who came up with this stuff.

"Half as much" is not accurate, but it is true that in the context of trading draft picks, they lose one round of value for each year into the future that they are. So a 2025 2nd is equivalent in value to a 2024 3rd, and a 2026 2nd is equivalent in value to a 2024 4th. Now, this formula only speaks to the value of picks in relation to their use in trades. If you look at any draft trade chart, be it Jimmy Johnson's or Rich Hill's, you'll see that this is true. That said, even if we consider the pick to be of 3rd round value, it STILL seems like a good return for a 30 year old WR on what has become a one-year deal. One need look no further than the compensation given up for Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Diontae Johnson, etc -- not to mention the comparative compensation given up for guys at other positions like Sneed and Burns -- to see that Beane did quite well. All of that said, there's a pretty good chance the pick winds up being a high one next year. Assuming the Vikings have a losing record -- not a crazy assumption if they start a rookie or Sam Darnold -- we could be looking at something like the 38th to 45th pick in the draft!

Figured today would be the perfect day to discuss this masterpiece. Currently listening in headphones to Dark Side of the Moon at work in honor of eclipse day. Have always loved this album. From the first time I ever heard it as a stoned teenager, through dozens of listens (always in full sequential order), to the present day. It's perfect. Whether I lay back and close my eyes and listen in headphones, or crank it loud on the sound system, or sync it up with the Wizard of Oz. It's just always the masterpiece I remember it as. The sonic landscape it creates blows me away every time. Any other fans? Detractors? People who think it's a lot of hype about nothing? (If that's you, you're wrong, by the way). If I inspire one person to spin this album today, I've done my job. Happy listening.

Bryan DeArdo is normally foolproof, too.

I agree. I thought the finale was just exactly perfect. Then again, I loved the Seinfeld finale, and have agreed with Larry all these years that there's nothing to defend or apologize for. Curb was an amazing series, and in its peak moments, it equaled and occasionally surpassed Seinfeld. Crazy to think that it's been on (and sometimes off) for 24 years now! So long, Larry. No lessons learned.

With the 75th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Michael Hall Jr, DT, Ohio State Hall's size causes him to drop to the third round, but his active hands, short area quickness, and ability to win one-on-ones have us convinced he can be a valuable rotational piece on our defensive line. Hall was dominant at times at the Senior Bowl, and we're willing to bet that with a bit of time in an NFL weight room, Hall can make up for any size deficiencies he may have. We want to get stronger in the trenches, and Hall helps us do that. @Big Blitz and the Denver Broncos are now on the clock. **Sorry for the delay everyone. Honey-do list errands. Happy wife, happy life. Apologies.**

I appreciate the post. However, Julio Jones (who the Falcons made a move similar to what we're discussing here for the Bills) and Mike Evans are likely headed to the Hall of Fame, and Ja'Marr Chase has certainly shown that kind of talent, too (though obviously he needs to sustain it for a decade+ to have a shot at the Hall). My point is that yes, sometimes you strike out when you draft a receiver early. But sometimes you also draft an elite player, and maybe even a Hall of Fame player. Ask the Bills front office that traded up for Watkins if they regret their decision, and they'll surely tell you they do. But ask the Falcons front office that traded up for Julio Jones if they regret THEIR decision, and they'll surely tell you they don't. Again, it all comes down to risk tolerance. No one is refuting that there is great risk inherent in trading up for a receiver. There is also potentially great reward. Those who feel that you should "never" trade up in the draft for a receiver are, in my opinion, simply opposed to taking the risk that that move represents. Those of us who don't mind the idea, and maybe even advocate for it, are willing to accept the risk. As I've stated previously in this thread, I think the Bills need more elite playmakers around Josh Allen, and I think their best chance at adding an elite playmaker to the offense in this draft is to trade up for Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, or Brian Thomas. None of those players are sure things. They're impressive enough prospects, though, that I'm okay with taking the risk.

I'm on record here as agreeing with that take. I believe a plea to a lesser charge, a fine, and minimal league discipline is the most likely outcome. I do not believe for a second that Rice will go to jail, because that's not how the American justice system tends to work for rich athletes. Still, the possibility of jail time exists, and to pretend that it doesn't is silly.

In all seriousness... If you can make this exact trade happen, I'll get a deluxe manicure, give you my home address, and cook you lobster tails beforehand.

I don't think the Kincaid and Cook outlooks are too optimistic. Cook already WAS statistically a top 10 running back last year, and Kincaid has the look of a year two breakout star. I like Shakir a lot, but it could be argued that that's the only one on your list that might be a bit optimistic, if only because I expect Curtis Samuel and a soon-to-be-signed vet WR to eat up some of his opportunities.

Thanks for this nugget. Allen also mentioned him first when recently asked about WRs in this year's draft. He seemed pretty knowledgeable about the class, and Nabers was the first name out of his mouth. He wanted Kincaid last year. Obviously, circumstances are quite different this year with Nabers being expected to go so high, but...we shall see. I think Joe Schoen at 5 would be the perfect trade partner. Failing that, the Bears at 9 seem very logical, too, should Odunze fall that far.

For what it's worth, I've since seen the "this much pot is a felony!" part redacted, and the correction noted that it is in fact a misdemeanor. Nevertheless, between the pot and his admitting that he was driving the Lambo, chargeable offenses are starting to pile up for Rice. The main questions are: How lenient will the judge be, given that he's a start athlete? How effective will his lawyer be in pleading the deal down to a lesser offense and avoiding jail time? I think that the key determining factor in Rice's NFL career going forward will be whether or not he serves time in jail. If he winds up, say, paying a fine and settling out of court with the victims and doing community service, I think he'll get a 2-6 game suspension, do the usual Mea Culpa token apology tour, and go on with his career. If he serves time in jail, all bets are off.

Incredibly hard for me to see how Beane's personnel decisions are more to blame for the 13 seconds game than McDermott's coaching failures or the players' execution failures. Ditto the Bengals game the following year and the Chiefs playoff game this year. We can all argue 'til we're blue in the face about who deserves what share of blame for which losses, but at the end of the day, two things stick out to me: 1.) The Bills have been very good for four straight seasons. From wins accrued, to division titles, to offensive and defensive rankings, to scoring differential. If there was a waited metric that took all of these into account, it would have only the Chiefs ranked higher. The only thing missing has been a championship which, yes, is obviously the main thing. 2.) Beane DOES get heat! He's getting a ton as we speak! There are TVs always set to ESPN and NFL Network in my workplace lobby, and I haven't been able to walk past a TV the past few days without seeing the Bills get excoriated. All I'm seeing and hearing is "the Bills ask Josh Allen to do too much" and "the Bills' window is closed". I'm just really not sure where people are getting this "Beane doesn't catch any heat" stuff. He absolutely does. The Bills are one of the most criticized times in football the past two years. The "they ask Allen to do too much" narrative, in particular, has been loud and constant, and that's a direct criticism of Brandon Beane's roster construction.

The Bills have won the 2nd most games in the league since 2020. They've won four straight division titles. The only possible reason to say he "deserves" criticism is because they haven't won a title. But if that's the case, then 31 GMs every single year deserve criticism. Looking at moves in a vacuum for any GM across the league, you're going to see some moves that worked and some that didn't. No GM is immune to mistakes. But looking at the total output and production of a team gives you a sense of what kind of job the team's architect has done. The fact remains that only the Chiefs have won more games than the Bills since 2020, that they've won their division four years in a row, and that they are contenders year in and year out. You want perfection? Go watch a Kurosawa film or listen to a Betthoven sonata. Beane is a very good GM. P.S. Brandon Beane DOES receive criticism, and if you don't see it, then you're not looking in the right places. Go turn on ESPN, Fox Sports 1, or listen to any drive time football radio show, and you'll hear scores of criticism of Beane and his Bills. Heck, the buzziest phrase in football the past two season has been "the Bills window is closed". If you're angry at Brandon Beane and want to criticize him, then just say that. Don't manufacture an immunity to criticism that he does not actually possess.

You and I are not on the same page here. Graham and Wawrow are credible people in my book. One can have whatever personal opinions they want about those guys, but I have never been given any reason to doubt their professional credibility. Graham admits that he didn't hear what Diggs actually said to Allen, but I have no reason to believe he would make up Allen's response. I believe him.

Graham claims he didn't report it at the time because he couldn't hear what Diggs actually said, and that for all he knew it could have been a compliment/praise that hit Allen the wrong way (though unlikely). He says he wishes, in retrospect, that he had reported that incident at the time. To be honest, though, what good would it have done the Bills? I'm kind of glad he didn't.