Logic

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/betting-odds-shift-toward-drake-maye-over-jayden-daniels-as-favorite-for-no-2-pick Betting odds shift toward Drake Maye over Jayden Daniels as favorite for number 2 pick. Maybe you're onto something, Alpha.

Agreed. But everything that happened after THAT, lol.... Retaining counsel rather than just walking into the police station. Choosing the specific counsel he did (a state senator who also represents Jerry Jones). In the immediate aftermath, he ***** up big time. Ever since then, though, his behavior displays a realization of just how badly he ***** up and what real potential legal trouble he finds himself in.

While I agree that Daniels won't last this long and have stated my belief that he'll go #2 overall... A quarterback that the experts all guarantee us will go high ends up falling on draft day just about every single year. It happens constantly. I'd bet on the faller being Maye instead of Daniels, but still...the notion of a highly touted QB prospect falling down the board really isn't all that farfetched. There are piles of precedent for it.

Agreed. I maintain that it's a moot point, because Daniels is going to Washington at 2. The selection of Kliff Kingsbury as OC, the signing of Mariota as backup QB...everything points to a certain kind of RPO, movement, and spread system that they want to run, and Jayden Daniels is the man to run it. Williams to the Bears and Daniels to the Commanders are picks I'd feel comfortable writing in permanent marker right now, and betting real money on. Beyond that, it's all a crapshoot.

Yeah. I think they feel like they have that now in Tyrod Taylor. I'm not saying I agree with them, and it certainly seems like Jayden Daniels would probably be an upgrade over Tyrod. But I think they have faith in Tyrod as backup, and will go after more of an "instant impact" player.

Prediction: All of the people dismissing him and saying he's always hurt (as if an ACL tear and an Achilles tear aren't both freak accidents that can happen to anyone) now are going to be the first ones saying "why didn't Beane sign this guy?! He was asleep at the wheel!" next season when Dobbins stays healthy, resuscitates his career, and proves to still be a dynamic weapon in the run game. Yes, I'm still a Dobbins supporter and believer. Yes, I realize that achilles injuries are hard to come back from for football players. Yes, I wish the Bills would sign Dobbins to a cheap, incentive-laden deal. Unless Dobbins wants big money, this seems like an obvious low-risk, high-reward move that I wish Beane would make. The Chiefs seem to be doing a lot of the low-risk, high-reward stuff lately: Araiza, the rugby star they signed once the kickoff rule changed, and now potentially Dobbins. When the financial cost isn't high, I believe that it behooves a team to take calculated risks.

Protecting a 40+ year old QB coming off a torn achilles certainly seems like a more prudent short term move (which is how Saleh and Douglas are probably thinking right now -- short term) than drafting a QB who may not play for another season or two. Douglas and Saleh's best chance at saving their jobs is to have a winning season. The best chance for THAT to happen would come from Rodgers staying upright and performing well. The best chance for THAT to happen would be to get him the best possible offensive line and weaponry. That's how my mind thinks about it, anyway. I do agree with you, as I said, that what's best for the Jets in the long term would be to draft Daniels, but unfortunately for them, they have men in charge who may not be thinking as much about the long term, because they realize they may not be around long enough to see it.

I agree with @mannc that Daniels would be the best pick for the Jets, and also agree with you that it doesn't make sense for the current regime in charge. That's never good for a franchise: When what's best for the team doesn't mesh with what's best for the men in charge.

The legal counsel Rice has returned states that he is currently "cooperating with authorities". That doesn't sound as though he has physically "turned himself in", per se, but he's not on the run or anything. The language of the counsel's statement was certainly vague. Rice so far seems to be handling this incident verrrry carefully in its aftermath. Smart move.

With the 9th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State. After quarterback, the other position on our roster with an absolute glaring, highlighted-in-red, five-alarm need is edge rusher. Montez Sweat did wonders for us last year, but we have absolutely no one beyond him. Enter Jared Verse. His first step, closing speed, relentless energy, bend, and hand usage all point to his being an early impact player off the edge. Like the Houston Texans last year, we hope that selecting a blue chip quarterback and an impact edge rusher with our first two picks will mark a turning point for our franchise and will catapult us into instant contention. **side note: the way this draft has played out so far was not ideal for the Bears. We liked Dallas Turner, who went right before this pick. We also would've had a hard time saying no to Rome Odunze, even though WR is less of a "need" than EDGE, simply because Odunze is higher on our board. Lastly, we would heavily consider trading down for more picks -- we don't have any in the 2nd round and want to build around Caleb Williams -- but trades are not allowed in this mock. Verse isn't a bad consolation prize, though.** @PastaJoe and the New Jersey Just-End-The-Seasons are now on the clock.

You sure that's not just a symptom of watching Mariners baseball?

Morning y'all. I'm a west coaster, so its perdy dang early for me. Just saw that I'm on the clock. Let me fire up a donut and a cup of coffee and I'll make my pick shortly.

Haha. Nope. I just figured "this is a clear April Fool's joke" and it didn't spend much more time on it. Are they amusing?

I totally understand the pick, I liked your reasoning, and I certainly don't have a horse in the race either way, but... I will be gobsmacked if the Commanders pick anyone but Jayden Daniels at 2 when the real draft rolls around. I should probably go find a place to bet real money on it.

With the 1st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams, QB, USC Trojans The hay has been in the barn with this pick since Justin Fields was traded away. With his escapability, quick release, improvisational ability, arm strength, decision making, and general playmaking prowess, Caleb Williams appears to have everything the Bears could want in a franchise quarterback. Boasted an eye-popping 46-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the red zone since 2022. Was arguably the best quarterback in college football in 2023. Williams fits the definition and expectations of a modern NFL quarterback to a T. Phone case pigmentation relative to societal gender expectations and "feeling human emotions sometimes" did not count as negatives in our scouting process, and we believe we finally have our first true franchise quarterback since Sid Luckman. @Alphadawg7 and the Washington Commanders are now on the clock.

Someone nudge me when it's go time. I'll make my pick most expeditiously so that we can get this show on the road. We all know who the Bears are picking anyway. BRBA. Best running back available, baby.

Thanks as always. You know I'm in! 1. Chicago 2.Arizona 3. LA Chargers

You could've saved yourself a lot of time and typing effort in this thread by just saying "I am incapable of being unbiased and level-headed about this issue because it involves a Kansas City Chief, and I am downplaying the seriousness of this misdemeanor criminal offense because the player in question plays for my favorite team. If he played for a different team, my opinion would be different". There. That's the truth. Now you don't have to keep replying any more.

What Reddick has over Huff is that he's been good for a longer period of time. Double digit sacks in four straight seasons. But Huff had a career year last year and seems to be blossoming into an imposing pass rusher himself. As I pointed out in my post, they two players had an identical 22% pass rush win rate last year. As I also pointed out in my thread, Huff had just 1 less sack than Reddick, but on 289 less attempts. That's significant. So yes, I'm suggesting that what Huff became last year may be roughly equal to what Reddick is now. I admit that Reddick has the proven longevity factor that Huff lacks, and perhaps you're insinuating that Huff's 2023 success was a flash in the pan, not likely to be duplicated. Me? I'll take the 25 year old and the 2nd round pick over the 29 year old and the lack of that pick. YMMV.

Though I'm worried about Thomas, I'm fine with the Bills rolling the dice on him if they like what they see. Lord knows that they love supremely athletic physical specimens that they can turn over to their coaching staff for molding. If that's who the Bills want, cool. I'm just saying that height/weight/speed guys with limited collegiate productivity scare me a bit. I'm still studying the college WRs, but so far, I like Xavier Worthy (over 900 yards and 12 TDs as a freshman) and Troy Franklin a lot. I think both would help the Bills stretch the field. I also like Jalen McMillan and Ja'lynn Polk from what I've seen so far. I want explosivity, over-the-top ability, and separation ability, hence the guys I've named. I admit that Thomas has all of those things, and I understand why he seems to be the consensus WR4 in this draft.

As I just saw pointed out on Twitter: Yes, the Jets got 29 year old Reddick, but they LOST 25 year old Bryce Huff who is coming off a career year with 10 sacks. Reddick and Huff had an identical 22% pass rush win rate last year. Huff had one less sack on 289 (!) less rushes. So the Eagles got the younger, arguably equally productive player by signing Huff, then turned around and took advantage of the Jets' sudden need for a pass rusher by trading them the older Reddick and getting a 2nd round pick and $10 million in cap space in return. So the Jets added a good player in Reddick, yes, but its arguably a wash with having lost Huff, but they got older and gave up a premium pick to do it. Howie Roseman win, Joe Douglas loss.

Thomas scares the Bejesus out of me. Height/weight/speed guys who don't break out until junior/senior year are terrifying. I get Denzel Mims with a hint of Terrace Marshall vibes.

Right. And now it's likely to become a big story on ESPN, or at least to be trending on social media, and stoke a whole bunch of unnecessary and unproductive nonsense, time-wasting, and blood pressure raising. And for what? When an immature troll/bully comes around -- even a mentally unstable one -- it's always best to just ignore them.