Logic

I hear you, but also... Jim Harbaugh. Greg Roman. It wouldn't surprise me to see them take a top tackle and get a receiver later. The coach and OC both strike me as old school "trenches before weapons" guys.

Great point. Thanks! Yes, KC had a cast of also-rans at WR the past couple seasons, but they also had a HOF #1 target that always came up big in big moments. Turn on a Chiefs playoff game from the past two years and what do you see? Kelce coming up with clutch plays when it counts. If I ask you to close your eyes and picture which offensive player other than Josh Allen has come up big in big moments in the playoffs the past few years, who comes to mind? For me, it's NO ONE. Maybe Gabe Davis in the Chiefs playoff game, but he's gone now. The Bills need that guy. Kincaid, as you say, may become him. We hope that's the case. But hope is not a strategy. I'd like to try to get another guy that we think has "big in big moments" potential. Let's find that guy for Josh.

Thanks. I appreciate your position. I think it just comes down to risk tolerance. This year, my risk tolerance is high. That's not always the case for me. This year, it is. I've seen the Bills build a roster of good players around Josh Allen, and I've seen the results. I'm ready to take a swing for a GREAT player. And I do understand your argument that no draftees are sure things, and we can potentially get a great player at 28, too. I also feel like a game-changing WR CAN be absolutely crucial to a team's success. I think the market is showing us that, with WRs starting to get $30million+ per year contracts. The market shows us where the league values positions, and right now, NFL GMs value elite receivers. Yes, we can point to the Chiefs winning two Lombardis after trading away Tyreek Hill, but...they have Mahomes and Reid. They're the exception rather than the rule, I think. Anyway, again, I respect where you're coming from and your explanations of why. I just find myself sitting on the opposite end of that ideological spectrum right now.

The other thing I like about Nabers is that I believe the Bills need a guy that commands a lot of attention from defense, in order to open things up for the Shakirs and Kincaids and Cooks of the world. Diggs has been that guy for four seasons. He commands safety help and lightens boxes. We don't know WHAT the Bills offense will look like when defenses don't have a guy like that to account for and can defend them more "honestly". Getting a Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze gives them the alpha that good offenses need in order to dictate to defenses and simplify coverage. Adding a playmaker like that makes all of the other offensive players better, because the defense has to focus attention and resources on the alpha.

You're right, of course. I also think that sometimes rare talents come out in the draft, and everyone can see from a mile away that they're rare talents. To me, that's the case this year with MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze. They're not your Uncle's 1st round receivers. They're DUDES. In order to get guys like that, you have to pick early. Yes, sometimes guys picked later (Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs) turn out to be great, too. But personally, I'd rather trade up for a SPECIAL prospect than hope that I'm lucky enough to get one at 28. That may not be the case every year, but it's the case for me this year, because of where the Bills are in their build and salary cap, and because of how special the top three WRs look to me.

LITERALLY for kicks.

His reasoning was that the pick in the 7th is very late, so rather than use it on a guy who may not make the roster or may get poached off the practice squad, why not use it to replace 30 year old Reid Ferguson and save that (small) amount of salary cap space. He also claims this fellow is the best long snapper in college football. I suppose it's the same rationale as drafting a punter. Maybe you'd rather at least take a player who will make your roster than a player at a more traditional position who likely gets cut or poached. That said...do long snappers EVER get drafted? Aren't they almost always UDFAs?

Seeing so many people drop in to say they're on board with trading up for a WR in this draft does my heart good.

Agreed. The general rule of thumb is that next year's picks lose one round of value. So a 2025 2nd is the same value as a 2024 3rd.

I feel like it heavily depends on which trade chart you use. The Jimmy Johnson chart or the Rich Hill chart. Either way, they're both just guides, and we see NFL GMs buck their wisdom every year. But even if the Bills needed to throw in an extra later round pick, or didn't get the 182 back in the trade, I'd STILL make this move.

Me too. I'd even throw in a handy.

The thing that bothers ME, if anything, is this: When Diggs was a Bill, all we heard about was how he was a diva, a malcontent, a headache, and was maybe showing his age last year and no longer a number one receiver. Now that he's a Texan, he's the weapon that's gonna put them over the top, they're favorites in the AFC, he's still a #1 WR, and the Bills got fleeced. Like...which is it? Pick a lane.

The other reason I like this trade -- aside from Nabers being an absolute dawg -- is that the Bills still have a full slate of picks this year. Look at the draft results above. They still walk out of the draft with 9 players. Then, even in 2025, they lack a 1st, but have two 2nds, one of which could be very early in the round. In the trade outlined in this mock, they'd be getting an elite prospect, still drafting a full draft's worth of players this year, AND still having a full slate worth of picks (albeit with an extra 2nd instead of a 1st) next year. How could anyone not want to do that?

I understand your point of view. Personally, I think we've seen what it's like to have a bunch of good to above average players and not enough GREAT players on the roster. It gets us to the Divisional round, and then we lose to a team with more GREAT players. Me? I want more GREAT players around Josh Allen, and Nabers has the potential for greatness. Give me one elite, blue chip playmaker with the potential for GREATNESS over a handful of potentially GOOD players, all day long and twice on Sundays.

For those who don't want to pay the totally-worth-it $1.99 per month to subscribe to the Athletic (can you even get a pack of gum for that any more?), here's Joe Buscaglia's latest 7 round Bills mock draft. I gotta say, if this happened, I might cry tears of joy. https://theathletic.com/5391796/2024/04/05/buffalo-bills-mock-draft-stefon-diggs-trade/ TRADE! Tennessee Titans trade Nos. 7, 182 to Bills for Nos. 28, 60, 133 and 2025 1st The pick at No. 7: Bills – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU I continue to believe that anything, including a move like this one on draft day, is a real possibility for the Bills. Beane has long been an aggressive draft-day trader when he’s excited about a prospect and how he’d fit their system. Now, with a gaping hole for a top target at wide receiver and where the Bills are in their build, this is the type of move Beane could rationalize as one that puts them over the top for the foreseeable future. The cost of doing business might be high for some, which is understandable. I’m sure it will evoke memories of the Bills’ move up the board to take Sammy Watkins in 2014. But this is an entirely different situation from 2014 — almost comically so. Back then, it was the desperate move of a franchise hoping Watkins would help EJ Manuel become the franchise quarterback while blatantly ignoring several warning signs he was not that player. Now, there’s nothing for their quarterback to prove. The Bills have one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, a still-talented roster around him, and a pretty good idea that they’ll be pushing for the playoffs at the very least in 2024. By arming him with a young receiver with elite potential on a rookie deal for the next four years, it gives the Bills a lot of flexibility for how they spend through the duration of the receiver’s rookie deal. I’d liken this move more to the one the Atlanta Falcons made in 2011 to fly up the board and select Julio Jones, already with a top quarterback in Matt Ryan in place. They certainly didn’t regret that trade for a second. The recent trade of Diggs, and acquiring the Vikings’ 2025 2nd from the Texans, could empower Beane to make a stark move up the board like this one, too. With an extremely unsettled quarterback room — either starting journeyman backup Sam Darnold or a rookie — that pick has a good chance of turning into an early second-round selection. If that does happen, the Bills could easily get themselves back at the end of the first round next year, or just view their early second-round pick as their first-round pick replacement for dealing it away to get a potential game-changing receiver. For the right player, Beane will move a first-round pick. Is Nabers worth this type of move? In a more standard draft year, Nabers would easily be the best receiver prospect by a wide margin and likely one of the first players selected. He is outrageously talented and smooth, with the explosiveness to win however the Bills ask him to. The separation is effortless whether he’s at X, Z or slot and he gets the defender to bite at his breakdown constantly. He can win with physicality or speed and will eat cushion from off-defenders alive. Nabers has excellent, crisp footwork, and his contested catch concentration is simply outstanding. On top of it all, he can be a monster with yards after the catch, either using physicality to drag defenders or his 4.35 speed to blow up a play. Nabers has all the potential to be a star in the NFL, and with one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Allen, it increases that likelihood by a large margin. Nabers is worth the hype. But would he make everyone forget about the price tag? It certainly looks like he has all the potential to do so. And with the Bills looking like they’ll have cap space to work with in 2025, it could be the catalyst to another push toward the top of the AFC. Rest of draft:

Two things: 1. I think the Bills view him as competition to start at LG AND be the swing tackle. Lord knows they like versatility in their o-linemen. 2. I'd be willing to bet that the "up to" in the sentence announcing his contract is, as always, doing some pretty heavy lifting. I'll wait until the contract breakdown comes out before passing too harsh a judgement.

I'd give up that much draft capital for Malik Nabers in a heartbeat. We'd still have a pick in the 4th and 5th round this year. Essentially, we'd still have a full slate of draft picks. Then, next season, we'd still have a pick in the 2nd round, even after trading a 1st and 2nd. I know its a divisive topic, and many are against the idea of moving up for a WR in a WR-heavy draft. I am not one of those people. Nabers and MHJ and Odunze are worth a big move.

Anyone know if the Texans voiding the final years of the contract affects the Bills in any way, from a salary cap/dead cap standpoint?

This was the dude that was expected to go in the first round, but then had the legal issue pop up RIGHT before the draft, right? And after the first round came and went without him being drafted, his agent told/asked every NFL team NOT to draft him, as he wanted Collins to be able to pick his own team? Then every team obliged, and he signed a UDFA deal with Dallas? I remember being so mad at the Bills that year for not calling his agent's bluff and just drafting him in the 7th round. What could he have really done about it? Oh well. That's milk that was spilled a looooong time ago. And now, 9 years too late, he's a Bill. He'll be an interesting bit of trivia, along with former Bills Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and Reggie Bush.

Camp competition for the swing tackle role, methinks. I really liked the way Ryan VanDemark looked, but what the hell do I know?

The thing Bills fans haven't been discussing much and probably aren't ready for is this: Joe Brady showed last season that he'd prefer the Bills to feature the run more than they did under Dorsey and Daboll. Their neutral down run rate was much higher under Brady than Dorsey. With this being the case, and with the fact that they're likely gonna need to lean on the run game even more in the absence of Diggs and Davis, and considering that Cook and Johnson are currently the only viable backs on the roster... There is every possibility that the Bills will use a decent draft pick on a running back this year. I'm not saying it's what I would do. I'd be happy to sign a veteran to a one year deal, spend a 7th round pick on one, or sign an undrafted free agent. But in all likelihood, with Brady's proclivity for featuring the run game and with Cook being a smaller back, we may be looking at yet another day two running back addition via the draft.

It's also all just talk on paper until those other teams actually DO it. We've been hearing for several seasons now how strong the AFC is. The Russell Wilson Broncos were supposed to be threats. The Justin Herbert Chargers were supposed to be threats. Davante Adams to the Raiders, Deshaun Watson's Browns, Tua's Dolphins, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets... All we've heard about for several years straight is how the rest of the AFC is gaining ground on Buffalo and will soon overtake them. It has yet to happen. Sure enough, the Bills were the 2nd seed again last season, despite all that noise. COULD it happen, and soon? Absolutely. You're right that the Bills' spot is not guaranteed. But they still have the second best quarterback on planet earth, and until further notice, they've been backing their talk up (at least in the regular season) at a much greater rate than the rest of the "dangerous" AFC pack.

Clearly they offered the best compensation package. Beane is no dummy. If an NFC team or a cellar dweller offered comparable return to what the Texans offered, he clearly would've gone with that instead. At the end of the day, you have to prioritize doing what's best for your OWN team over the fact that you might be helping to strengthen another competitive team.

Another one of my favorites. Outside of the big four, Franklin and Worthy are my favorites from this class. Nice pick.