Logic

I said some version of this in another thread, but since this is the actual Dalton Kincaid discussion thread I'll reiterate what I think happened: 1. Kincaid's injuries likely affected him more than fans are aware of. Beane said he thought Kincaid came back earlier than he could have because he's a competitive guy, but he could tell the injuries were still affecting his play. In particular, I can see how a bum PCL would affect a player like Kincaid in terms of his ability to separate and run nuanced routes. 2. Defenses likely adjusted to how they defended Kincaid. Namely, with more physicality. Hence the comments from Beane and McDermott about wanting to see Kincaid get stronger this offseason. 3. As the Bills offense became run-first, Knox -- as the superior blocker -- took playing time away from the still-injured and under-strength and inferior blocker in Dalton Kincaid. 4. Joe Brady, in my opinion, failed to deploy both Kincaid and Knox in ways that best highlighted their respective abilities. As much as I like Brady, one concern I have about him is his ability to use premiere playmakers to their strengths in the passing game. We saw it with Diggs, then Cooper, and in my opinion, we've seen it with both Knox and Kincaid. Overall, I'd say this: In his rookie year, Kincaid had multiple really productive outings, had a nice rookie year overall, and was chosen by nearly everyone as a year two breakout candidate. I do NOT believe that he simply failed to progress, forgot how to play football, or that he's not going to be a quality NFL tight end. I simply think that the combination of the above factors -- injury, sophomore slump, having another good tight end on the roster, and failure by the OC at times to creatively deploy his tight ends -- led to a down year for Kincaid. I'm betting that last season and the way the Chiefs game ended and the comments by his coach and GM will light a fire under Kincaid, and he'll come back and -- health permitting -- have a big 2025. I'm betting on a big time bounce-back season.

Man....looking at Bosa's contract on Spotrac is a great illustration of how creative GMs are able to get around the cap. Mind you, the bill always comes due eventually. But the next time you see a cap-strapped team sign an expensive player and think "how the HECK did they afford that?!", just think of this contract. FOUR void years on a "one year deal". Wild. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/18951/joey-bosa

I just stopped in to say that I miss the day of having enormous fat guys at DT. Guys that couldn't rush the passer to save their life, but who were so enormous that you simply couldn't run on them, and they occupied two blockers and thus allowed the edge rushers 1-on-1 opportunities. I know that the changing style of NFL play and trends in both offensive and defensive scheme and personnel have largely rendered them extinct, and that they probably don't make as much sense in today's game, and blah blah blah... ...but still. I miss them. Gimme a big ol' 335 lb NT all day long. I'm here for it.

I think that this year's free agency period was an example of a growing trend in the NFL: Teams and GMs have gotten much better at finessing the cap, at finding loopholes and financial tricks like the use of signing bonuses, void years, contract incentives, etc. This, along with the franchise tag and an ever-rising salary cap, has allowed teams to increasingly keep their best players and to never allow them to see free agency during their prime years. Whereas in the first decade or two of the existence of unrestricted free agency, the salary cap meant that elite players hit the market at a pretty good rate, times (and methods) have changed. Teams' abilities to circumvent the salary cap (or to at least "creatively massage" player contracts) has caught up to free agency. As this happens, we're beginning to see free agent classes filled with less and less marquee players -- culminating in this year's highly lackluster free agent class. Nowadays, teams' stars come mostly from the draft or via trade. The marquee players acquired via trade has, in my estimation, far outstripped the amount of marquee players acquired via free agency in recent years. As it stands now, free agency is primarily a vehicle with which to fill out your depth chart and churn the bottom of your roster. To fill roster vacancies with mostly replacement level veteran players, while teams devote the REAL cap dollars to their best players instead. Time will tell if there is any kind of course correction and if the pendulum of free agency ultimately swings back toward more star players becoming available. A stronger NFLPA with a bit more balls and gumption would certainly help in this regard. To his credit, Beane has mostly been ahead of or apace with this trend throughout his tenure as GM of the Bills. He has, with few exceptions, mostly used free agency exactly as described above, resisting the temptation to go "star-hunting", and stating instead that his main objective is to draft, develop, and re-sign his own players. This offseason was a great example of his mostly sticking to his word.

I think @HappyDays explained it pretty well on page three of this thread. Basically, a team comes to a player and says "hey look, we don't want to cut you but your current cap number is gonna leave us no choice". Said player probably consults with his agents and, if the consensus is that he'd likely get even less than the revised cap amount on the open market, and/or the player just WANTS to stay on the team (which seems very possible with a guy like Milano), then he takes the paycut because it's still the better option than having to find a new team and potentially getting paid even less. It's sort of a "bird in the hand" situation. The player isn't doing it out of the goodness of his heart, most likely. He's doing it because it's his best option from a monetary (and maybe also happiness) standpoint. At least the team appears to have thrown him a bone and made it so that he can earn back what he gave up via various incentives. Though, in all likelihood, they are mostly of the "unlikely to be earned" variety.

I previously read a different in article (which may also have been from Berry) in which it was definitively stated that it WAS a Bills staff member that said they think Cooper might be cooked.

Caution: This podcast is not for children. Decidedly.

I'm gonna give you a little bit of a lesser known suggestion, but one I really enjoy: Behind the Bastards, by Robert Evans It tells the stories of the most infamous (and awful) people throughout history, in a very in depth way. Each episode picks one person and devotes an hour or two to telling their whole story, including stuff that you don't often read in the history books. Warning: Despite talking about some of the most awful people ever, Evans is a very funny, joyful, irreverent guy, so the episodes are not downers. But also, if you like your history dry and by-the-numbers, this show is probably not for you. There is an absolutely ENORMOUS library of episodes to pick from. I suggest just finding a person or situation that interests you and starting there. I recently listened to the Pat Tillman episode (not that HE'S awful, mind you. The episode is about the ret-conning of his story by the NFL and what ACTUALLY happened to him), and found it quite informative and enjoyable. Fascinating stuff.

I think they were gonna take a linebacker regardless, but this maybe moves it further up the needs list. Post Matt Milano, they have Dorian Williams and Edefuan Ulofoshio at outside linebacker. So maybe a backup MIKE to compete with Andreesen and one more OLB. I'd bet one or both come from a low cost veteran free agent, too. They don't want ONLY young unproven guys as backups, I'm guessing.

I always appreciate when veteran players take pay cuts to help the team. To echo others, I have to think this is likely his last year in a Bills jersey. Dorian Williams and Terrel Bernard appear to be the linebacker duo of the future. Milano's been a hell of a player for us. Here's hoping he stays healthy all season and ends his Bills career by helping to bring home a Lombardi.

One thing I treasure from that time is that I learned definitively that my wife and I actually like each other. We enjoy being around each other. Haha that sounds like a joke, but it's not. I know of a few marriages who -- once the couple was forced to spend all day, every day together in a house for a few months under stressful circumstances -- decided they didn't really enjoy each other's company all that much. In many cases, COVID lockdown was a marriage ender. My wife and I passed the test. Many couples weren't so lucky. Sounds like you and your wife passed the test, as well. And hey, by the way... just outta curiosity...how's that puppy doing now? Name? Breed? Behavioral quirk worth mentioning? I love dogs. Just trying to bring a little joy into this weird world.

Putting aside the baggage, the emotional intangibles, how much happier Josh and the whole team seemed last year without him here, etc... Looking PURELY at the football aspect of things... Stefon Diggs was basically a non-factor on the Bills offense under Joe Brady when he was here. Since then, he's gotten a year older and torn an ACL. So PURELY from a football standpoint...what makes anyone think he would be particularly helpful? This is coming from a guy who direly wants more WR help for this team. I want NO part of Stefon Diggs, from an on-field, off-field, or any other standpoint. It's a hard pass for me at any cap number.

Me. Mom's side. She's a red-headed Irish gal with the surname Millar. I'm definitely a mutt, but the Irish is one of the more prominent things, I think. That said, I couldn't care any less about St Patrick's day.

Worth noting: Many Eagles fans were calling for Howie Roseman's head for YEARS. He became a better GM over time. The Eagles were rewarded for not giving into the vocal minority of fans. Here's an article from 2018 and a petition from 2020 both wanting Howie fired. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1004679-philadelphia-eagles-please-fire-general-manager-howie-roseman https://www.change.org/p/philadelphia-eagles-fire-howie-roseman-eb949679-d650-403a-aeea-b39f5826b9d5

When asked about the Bills cap situation post-signings in his FA presser, Beane said they were "getting tight" and that they'd be shopping in a different store from here on out.

Thanks for this. My response would be, primarily, that I disagree with the notion that his understanding of NFL leverage and reading the defense is below average. Further, saying "any optimism is 100% projection" ignores that we've seen Kincaid be successful in this league. In his rookie year, he posted the following single game stat lines: 8 rec 75 yards 5 rec 65 yards 1 TD 10 rec 81 yards 5 rec 51 yards 1 TD 4 rec 87 yards 7 rec 84 yards In my opinion, his feel for finding the soft spot in zone coverage, his fluid route running, and the way he positions himself for yards after the catch are all positive traits. He also DOES have the speed to threaten the seam and to win against man coverage, which he has shown on multiple occasions in his young NFL career. Admittedly, most of what I just mentioned showed up on tape more in year one than it did in year two. I think three things about Kincaid: The first is that the sophomore slump is real. Once opposing teams had a season of tape on him and saw that he lacked adequate play strength for the position and could be beaten with physicality, they adjusted how they defended him, and he failed to counter-adjust. The second is that I DO think the injuries hampered him and negatively affected his confidence. And third, I think his being inferior to Dawson Knox as a blocker in what became a run-first offense caused him to lose playing time to Knox. The last thing I'll say is that while I like Joe Brady overall, I still have serious questions as to his ability to fully utilize players to their strengths. First Stefon Diggs vanished under his playcalling, then Amari Cooper vanished under his playcalling. MAYBE both of those guys are cooked, or maybe Brady just doesn't entirely know how to feature his most talented skill players. Kincaid's deployment (and Knox's, for that matter) has been lackluster, in my opinion. I'm not sure either guy's talents are being maximized. Regardless, I don't know how anyone can reasonably look at some of those year one stat lines and say that there's nothing to build on or that any notion of his succeeding is 100% projection.

Yeah I kind of agree with regard to the WR corps. I sort of hoped that the "everybody eats" mediocre WR group was more out of necessity than preference. That the Diggs situation caught them off guard and they did the best they could (albeit without double dipping at WR in a historically deep WR draft). I hoped/assumed they'd put some serious effort in to acquiring a WR1 type this offseason. Instead, they seem to be saying "hey, the no-name WR/everybody eats thing worked last year, let's run it back!". I don't love it. To go back-to-back offseasons in Josh Allen's prime without seriously addressing the position (last year, as mentioned, in the historically deep WR draft, and then this year by only signing Josh Palmer) feels like roster malpractice. The Bills are going about their business as if WR isn't an important, premium position in the year 2025. They seem to be banking on hope yet again this year. Hope that Keon Coleman will progress, hope that Joshua Palmer will be better than he has been throughout his career, hope that Curtis Samuel is better than last year, hope that Khalil Shakir stays healthy (because the WR corps is scary bad looking without him). The only problem is...."hope" is not a strategy.

I understand recency bias, which I think is what's largely at play in all the Kincaid hate/doubt. Guy had a bad season. Failed to make a big play in the AFCCG. For what it's worth, Mark Andrews is on a Hall of Fame career path, and he dropped a pass that might have advanced his team in the playoffs, too. It happens. I just don't thinking giving up on a guy after a bad second season (in which the head coach admitted he thought the player was highly affected by his injuries) after said player had a nice first season is good business. I think it makes sense to give him year three to prove himself, and I'm betting on him to do so.

I haven't read through the entire past couple pages regarding Kincaid, but... I'm just gonna say that he had a darn good rookie year, then had a sophomore slump as he dealt with myriad injuries, and that some are writing him off way too soon. Mind you, I'm not some huge Kincaid mark. I said when he was drafted that I felt his ceiling was to be a Zach Ertz in his prime. I still think that. But looking at his rookie year, then his sophomore year, and somehow concluding that he doesn't have what it takes to succeed and talk about dealing him for a third...I can't get behind that line of thinking. I think he has a big bounceback 2025 season.

I thought my wife and I were the only ones. Obviously, with so many deaths and so much uncertainty, people out of work, etc, it was an awful and tense time in many ways. On the other hand, I got an extended paid vacation at home with my wife. Her and I were both on furlough for an unusually long period of time. For several months straight, we were at home together every single day, getting paid enough in unemployment and government kickers to make rent, pay bills, and save some money. We got to cook together, watch movies, spend time with our pets, go on walks. And we reasoned that being in nature was the best kind of "social distancing" available, so we camped, hiked, and explored parts of our state we had never had the chance to explore before. While I have always felt some sense of guilt for "enjoying" much of the COVID period, the fact remains: It was the only time in my adult life that I got to spend so much uninterrupted time with my wife, got to pause, got to take a long break, got to THINK...without the hustle and bustle of usual every day life and jobs. What a strange, awful, beautiful, terrible, memorable time.

Now THIS is a good thread. It's really THE thread this offseason. One can easily make the argument that in terms of our current depth chart and the importance of a good 1T to the success of this defense, this is the pre-eminent issue of importance before we kick off the 2025 season. I'm just starting to learn about all of these guys in depth. Like everyone else, I want Kenneth Grant. I would tend to think he won't fall to us, and I'm somewhat doubtful that Beane will be willing to give up significant draft capital to move up far enough to take him.

Just as we can go on and on about the GOOD things Brandon Beane has done. It's a matter of perspective, of fairly weighing the good vs the bad, and of "glass half full" vs "glass half empty" outlooks.

I really think people should go out and touch grass and have a beer. It's a weird, kind of embarrassing, and definitely less than ideal situation. I agree with you. Beane seemed embarrassed in his presser. I also think it'll be forgotten about by Monday. The idea that the whole league is laughing at us or that it's this giant black eye that warrants firing Brandon Beane...it's just prisoner of the moment stuff, in my opinion. It sucks, its ugly, and no one's happy about it. I just think people are making it even bigger than THAT and acting like its some epic referendum on Brandon Beane and like...okay...sure. If that's how you feel, then that's your prerogative. Just as it's my prerogative to think that's silly.