HappyDays

Oliver's on Delaware Ave is where I've had the two best meals of my life. Save room for dessert.

I do multiple survivor pools every year, and I have two rules to avoid that one major upset that always knocks out half the pool: 1) Never pick a divisional game. 2) Never pick a road team. If the pool lasts long enough sometimes you have to break those rules late in the season but I wait until it can't be helped. Week 1 is always tough to predict and this year is especially difficult. In my biggest prize survivor pool I'm taking the Falcons over the Eagles because I think the Eagles are just that bad this year. In one I'm waiting until the last minute to see if TJ Watt isn't playing, if he doesn't the Bills are a strong pick. Stay away from Jags over Texans. It breaks both of my rules. Case in point last year week 1 a ton of people picked the Colts at the Jaguars and ended their season before it began. It was the Jaguars only win of the season.

I read the article this morning and found it weird that they didn't even once mention how his supporting cast got better year over year. You'd think for an article focusing on context driven performance they would have brought that up. Allen went from having a historically bad supporting cast to a middling supporting cast to a really good supporting cast. He of course improved on his own too, but adding a true #1 WR to the offense last year combined with his personal progression led to the historical leap in production. If you put Mahomes in the 2018 Bills offense of course he would appear to regress. The Bills if anything improved the supporting cast again this year, and Allen didn't make a living on fluke plays last year, so I don't see a path to regression that doesn't involve injury.

Tomlin is a very good coach. He will have a game plan to exploit what we didn't do well last year. From their defense I'm expecting a lot of zone looks and delayed blitzes, since Allen struggled more with both last year. From their offense I'm expecting them to attack our middle run defense until we can prove we can stop it, with timely PA passes mixed in. Think the Colts playoff game with Roethlisberger instead of Rivers. The Bills struggled against balanced offenses last year and I think that's what the Steelers are trying to be. All that being said, from a personnel standpoint the Bills just have so much more talent across the board. We have the better QB, pass catchers, offensive line, secondary. The Steelers have the better front 7 but that's about it. Teams with less talent than us are going to try to play ball control; don't let them. If Allen stays patient and takes easy throws all the way to the end zone we will get them out of their game plan early. The Steelers don't have the players to lock down our WRs. If their pass rush can't get home we'll move down the field at will. The defense just needs to play up to their talent level. The Steelers don't have any world beaters on offense and a lot of new inexperienced players on their line. We pressured Roethlisberger a ton of last year and that should be an easy formula to replicate. Harris is a rookie playing in his first professional game. Welcome him to the NFL. Vegas has us as 6 point favorites for a reason. We have the better QB and roster, a lot more continuity from last season, and Bills fans back in a full stadium screaming their heads off. After working out some initial sloppiness I expect us to slowly pull away with the Steelers never really managing to keep pace. 27-17 Bills.

The WR rankings are incredible. Did he randomly assign numbers? He has the Steelers at #3 and the BENGALS at #4. What?

This is where I disagree. It is similar to the conversations we had about Ertz when trading for him was still a realistic possibility. Many people argued Ertz would take production away from the WRs and it seems like you're saying thing about Kelce. To me adding a player like that would add MORE production, not just replace it. Until the Bills score a TD on 100% of their drives, there is always an opportunity for their offense to become even better. And yes of course that's an unrealistic goal but my point is there is no ceiling on our offensive production. There were times last year when our WRs got shut down (notably the AFCCG) and having an elite TE or RB could have made up for it. Adding Kelce doesn't just mean Beasley would get less targets, it would mean that one plays when Beasley and Diggs are covered there is one more option with a high probability of being open.

You'd think Mac Jones was the best prospect since Andrew Luck reading some of these prognostications. I don't care what team or coach you're talking about, rookie QBs very rarely make an impact. Just like every other rookie QB he will make a couple rookie mistakes that cost his team games. After watching Brady go from having the worst year of his career to being a Super Bowl champion in a new city I thought the magical sheen of the Patriots would have worn off. They are still a rebuilding roster with no elite offensive skill players and, again, a rookie QB (who was by no means an elite prospect). They are a less than .500 roster with a elite coach that might earn them 2 wins above their expected. I'll predict 8-9.

Kelce is a much, MUCH better player than Beasley. Kelce is the 2nd best TE in the NFL. You're downplaying his athleticism here. Kelce isn't just a cerebral TE. He is fast and difficult to cover. Beasley does one thing very well but his success in the Bills offense is more a product of Allen's elite skill set matching up perfectly with Beasley's skill set. Beasley was a fine player in Dallas; he started being talked about as the best slot receiver in the game in Buffalo. Kelce has been an elite TE since Alex Smith was throwing him the ball. The Bills are a lot deeper at WR than the Chiefs, and I would argue Diggs is slightly better than Hill, but the Chiefs will still always have better skill players on the field because the combination of Hill and Kelce is a lot better than the combination of Diggs and anyone else the Bills have. The Chiefs have two skill players that are top 3 players at their position; the Bills have one. I have never been one to believe that great depth makes up the difference to great talent. So it isn't necessarily the case that the Bills need a top tier TE, but it would be nice if we had another top tier skill player at any position. That would help close the gap against the Chiefs. I think it is actually better to have a non-WR be that player. As in I'd rather have Diggs and Kittle or Diggs and Derrick Henry, than Diggs and Deandre Hopkins, because the first and second scenario gives our offense an elite option to attack any defense no matter their strength.

I saw him catch the ball. And that's all I needed to see! I have very low standards for TEs in this offense. Catch the ball and be where you're supposed to. Right now I don't trust Knox to do either of those things consistently and nothing out of training camp or preseason makes me think he is going to suddenly clean up his issues. I would love for him to prove me wrong. He was my favorite draft pick that year because I saw unlimited potential. But until I actually see him develop I'm not convinced he will.

The other side of this argument is for an offense built around passing you shouldn't make a TE decision based on their blocking ability. An athletic TE with good hands is a good fit for that offense. A TE with drop problems that you use for run blocking is not. I have no problem with the Bills running single TE sets all year long. I just don't agree that Knox should be handed the job or that Sweeney should be kept over Hollister because he's a slightly better blocker.

This is the first thing I've read that makes me at least understand the move. Thank you. Still nervous about Knox catching passes.

That's fine but why does Sweeney offer more than Hollister? That's what I don't understand. It can't be a cap move because Hollister was only set to make a couple hundred thousand more than Sweeney. Usually even with the moves I disagree with I can see the logic in, this one I just don't see it.

The Hollister release makes no sense at all. Even if it's just a numbers thing, he's saying Sweeney was better than Hollister this offseason? There hasn't been any indication of that from the reports we got. I think we will regret forcing Knox in as the #1 TE. The offense is too good to have an unreliable pass catcher on the field. It's such a bizarre move it makes me wonder if we're finally going to trade for Ertz and Sweeney is just keeping his seat warm, otherwise I can't fathom it.

I'm on it.

My prediction is we IR Harrison Phillips and Tommy Sweeney, using the vacant roster spots to re-sign Ferguson and Hollister. Sweeney will be kept on IR all year. When Phillips is healthy I think we will cut or trade Vernon Butler to put Phillips back on the roster. I also predict we will sign a veteran CB in the next few days and cut Tyrel Dodson to make room for him.

I won't be happy if the Hollister cut is legitimate. Knox is too inconsistent to hand him the job. Hollister can catch the ball. I'm hoping it is just an IR gymnastics move like most of us think.

Any thoughts on Trufant as a veteran backup?

It's crazy the amount of people assuming Mac Jones will be a good QB. Over 50% of 1st round QBs are busts. Of course Jones has a chance but it's far from certain. I actually would prefer to face Jones than Newton because he offers no running ability which I believe would have been lethal in the Patriots offense this year. Defending them is going to be about crowding the middle of the field, stack the box, try to fool the rookie QB with exotic blitzes. No easy wins in the NFL but nothing about them makes me think they are a playoff team.

Interesting theory from Joe:

I am somewhere between Gunner's and your view on this. I do think special teams matters, to a point. When the coaches say Taiwan Jones is an elite gunner I take their word for it. That makes him worth a roster spot because he does prevent actual yards gained. Neither Kumerow or Jones are going to contribute on offense at all. It's hard to see Kumerow ever seeing the field with this WR depth. So between the two I take the better gunner which is Jones.

As a pass rusher I don't think he's progressed at all. A lot of people in this thread are conflating "developing" with "young." Some players hit the NFL as good as they'll ever be. I don't see Johnson ever being more than a depth piece as a pass rusher. I'm guessing the Panthers traded for him for his special teams ability, and we have more than enough special teams players on the roster to get something back for one. I'm surprised this is even a controversial trade. Before training camp I had assumed Johnson would end up not making the team and he didn't do anything in camp or preseason to change that outlook.

Addison and Johnson have totally different roles on the team. Addison is a rotational pass rusher. Johnson was just a special teams gunner. He was never going to see the field on defense. I don't know how many gunners we need but we still have Jones, Neal, and Kumerow on the roster. If McDermott and Farwell decide we only need two gunners then Kumerow is probably gone.

Was he a "developing" pass rusher though? As a pass rusher he hasn't shown anything since his rookie season. In preseason this year he was a non-factor against starting o-linemen, occasionally made some plays against future cuts but that's all.

Well Addison and Johnson have different roles on the team. The question was always around Addison vs. Obada if anything.