HappyDays

He reported the same thing a couple months ago when the Ertz trade rumors first heated up, so take it with a grain of salt.

Sure sounds like Tyrell Adams is a lock to make the roster.

I think he just prefers to work with own coach and regimen to get back into football shape before training camp. That is the story for 99% of players that don't show up at OTAs. He's been in the league long enough, he'll be fine.

Diggs is a star player. I don't expect McDermott to have the same standards for him. The rest of the no-shows he expressed equal disappointment on. I'm sure McDermott isn't happy Star didn't show up, but clearly he's still keeping himself in shape and it doesn't mean his future with the team is in question.

I think you're reading too much into his answer. It was clear that McDermott was disappointed with every player that didn't show up at OTAs. He didn't single out Star, someone just asked him a specific question about Star and that's how he responded. My sense was if that he had been asked that question about Hughes or Addison or anyone else he would have given the same answer.

This is good to see. I'd rather he just be at OTAs but looks like he's attending a private football camp to get back into shape. I'm not concerned about him showing up to training camp out of shape.

They could have made this move at any time and are just choosing to do it now. That makes me think it means a move is coming. Probably not any of the moves anyone is predicting.

They wouldn't make this move for no reason, so there must be a signing or trade coming.

It was the same against the Chiefs in the first matchup too. For some reason they were our offensive line's kryptonite last year. The Steelers and Colts also killed us in the 1st half of each of those matchups, the difference is our defense held them back long enough for our offense to figure it out. Against the Chiefs both times by the time we figured it out it was too late because they had run up the score and we couldn't slow them down. When we face them this year Daboll and Allen need to have a plan against the pass rush from the start, and the defense can't let them start scoring at will.

Yeah Allen did improve from year 2 to year 3, but he was still quite good at the end of year 2. The larger difference is he had a legitimate #1 WR to throw the ball to and better depth at the position as well. I know I'm mostly alone in this opinion on this board, but I believe the addition of Diggs was more important to that jump than Allen himself, and I don't mean that as a slight against Allen at all. If you happen to have 2 hours to spare at some point, I highly recommend this 2-part video breakdown of Allen's play in late 2019 and 2020 from a non-Bills fan: Part 1: Part 2: I watched these videos a while ago and I really like how this guy breaks down the position. He talks about things I don't see other analysts talk about - things like depth of target and sight lines and surrounding talent and being able to throw accurately without "perfect" mechanics and understanding leverage on the field. His overall point being that context matters a lot. Allen had 2 years throwing to mediocre talent at best, and the first year he had a legitimate top end talent to throw to he suddenly has a breakout season. That isn't just coincidence and it isn't just because Allen himself improved. NFL offenses have 11 players on the field and it's ridiculous to say the other 10 players can't be factored into these conversations. EDIT: A quick word of warning on the videos, the first 30 minutes or so of part 1 is just the guy talking with no video breakdown, but a lot of what he says is really interesting so I still recommend listening to it all if you have the time.

I thought end of 2019 Allen was actually very good, and the offense's mediocrity was much more on his supporting cast than Allen himself. The step he took from 2019 to 2020 was magnified by the addition of a true #1 WR. Everyone talks about his dumb lateral in the Houston wildcard game. We were only in that game to begin with because of Allen's play. There isn't a QB in the league that could be successful with John Brown and Duke Williams as their top 2 WRs.

I don't think anyone is trying to argue this, unless I've missing something. There are several people in this thread arguing that it is objectively true that Mahomes should be the pick over Allen, I haven't seen the opposite.

If you believe Allen played just as well as Mahomes in 2020, and also that only a homer would take Allen over Mahomes, then you must be predicting Allen will drop off from his play last year, right? That or you're projecting Mahomes to get even better.

Andy Reid is a future hall of fame play caller. Daboll is a pretty good OC. Come on man... Read the last paragraph again. I said the main reason to take Mahomes is he has done it for longer. If you're basing it just on last year and betting on the upside then you pick Allen. We're talking in circles now. It seems that you agree Allen and Mahomes played at an equal level last year and that this is the first year Allen has had anywhere near Mahomes' supporting cast, so what else is there? If you agree with those two points you should agree that it is reasonable to pick Allen over Mahomes.

Of course, the QB matters. I just don't know what evidence we have from last year that Mahomes is measurably better than Allen as far as pushing his supporting cast to a higher level. Again, Allen had 4,977 yards to Mahomes' 5,048 yards; 46 TDs to Mahomes' 40 TDs; 107.2 passer rating to Mahomes' 108.2 passer rating. Allen did all this with what I believe to be a slightly less talented offensive supporting cast and a substantially worse play caller (do you disagree with these statements?). Even if we assume their surrounding players and play calling are exactly equal, how do you look at two players with similar supporting casts and similar stats and make the argument that one is far and away better than the other and only a homer could believe otherwise? Gunner's argument looks at their entire career so far which I guess is fair, but this is also the first year that Allen had a supporting cast anywhere close to what Mahomes has had since day one and he immediately played at an equivalent level. I think if a totally objective observer with no prior knowledge of the players looked at the situations and career stats year over year, they would probably conclude Allen and Mahomes are currently at an equal level, but gun to his head he'd take the player that had been doing it for longer which of course is Mahomes. And that's reasonable. But it's also perfectly reasonable to say you'll take the player with the clear upward trajectory year over year considering that trajectory has already landed him at Mahomes' level and very well could continue upwards. It's a matter of choosing the safe pick or taking the riskier upside player. Either choice is fine and naturally Bills fans are going to default to the player on our team - it isn't just homer rationale.

Were you not saying earlier in the season that Allen was playing just as well as Mahomes? Did the playoffs make you change your mind back?

Allen has a ton of respect from the players, moreso than the fans. I was shocked he made it onto the list at all last year. I think he has a decent shot of being top 5, if I had to bet on it I'd guess #8.

You're trying to argue that if Knox was on the Chiefs he would produce more because Mahomes is a better QB. I'm saying we have one example of a Bills WR going to the Chiefs and he did not magically become more productive. If Zay Jones was on the Chiefs he wouldn't suddenly learn to track and catch the ball. Beasley and Diggs and Brown have already had career years here, I doubt they would raise the bar even higher just because Mahomes was throwing them the ball. There's no evidence that Knox would be more productive there. Production wise, Allen and Mahomes were pretty close last year. Allen had 4,977 total yards and 46 total TDs. Mahomes had 5,048 total yards and 40 total TDs. I would say Allen had the slight edge in receivers, Mahomes had the slight edge in RBs, Mahomes has a ridiculously massive edge in TE, Mahomes has an equally large edge in play caller (which isn't even a slight against Daboll, Reid just happens to be the best of all time.) It's silly to look at those numbers and that context and say "anyone who thinks Allen is on Mahomes' level is a homer." If you're going to argue that Mahomes is clearly the pick over Allen, the one thing you have going for you is head to head performance. Mahomes was a lot better in both Bills games last year. Allen and Daboll need to figure out how to beat the Chiefs defense. But on the whole last year they performed at a very similar level. It's perfectly reasonable for someone to look at Allen's performance last year and his trajectory since entering the league and conclude that they'd rather have him in the long run, just as reasonable as someone saying they'll take the safe pick in Mahomes.

Kelvin Benjamin went to the Chiefs. He dropped a sure TD pass from Mahomes and never saw the field again. He was the same player in his very short tenure there as he was here. It is not the case that superstar QBs can turn bad pass catchers into good pass catchers. Knox is a bad pass catcher. It is entirely possible that Mahomes won't look as good once Kelce retires. I'd say it's practically certain that he will never hit these numbers again once Kelce and Hill are gone unless they are replaced by equal players. Just like Allen would not be the same player with Diggs off the team. I never understood the argument that the surrounding cast doesn't make a difference. I was arguing last year that it was hard to judge Allen with John Brown as his top WR, lo and behold Diggs arrives and Allen becomes a superstar.

Is he? Last year I saw the same player that I saw his rookie year. The drop percentage decreased but he added a couple fumbles which is even worse. He also had a drop turn into an interception in a critical moment against the Steelers. What improvement did you see last year?