GoBills808

OK I could accept that argument, but I'm also pretty sure we run 2TE sets at one of the lowest frequencies in the league so the value in a hypothetical strong TE duo is marginal

I think this is wildly optimistic There is zero chance absolutely zero that Knox Kincaid can be credibly called a top5 TE duo at this moment Ditto oline massive improvement He can't be much worse i love tre white as much as the next guy but he was a liability last year and getting better just means he'd be on the lower end of what you'd like your best CB to be

Just can't shake the feeling that we are relying on 3 players in Hyde/Poyer/Miller...all coming off significant injuries whose combined age is 98 years old throw in White who I don't expect to every really regain his form and there's an argument that the defense is in big trouble

So they peaked in 2021 and didn't even make it out of the divisional round?

when it's put that way i feel way less confident in this upcoming season lol

i mean its not good

The answer is defense needs to improve in the playoffs, which is a result of preparation and game plannning Over the last 3 seasons the Bills and Bengals have each played 7 playoff games against many common opponents. I think it's fair to say the Bengals have experienced much more postseason success In those 7 games, here are ppg averages for offense and defense Bengals O: 23.28ppg Bills O: 27.85ppg Bengals D: 18.85ppg Bills: 26ppg

Rory is going to come through at some point

That's an easier standard👍

I am sorry to break this to you but the chances of Kincaid being something close to Kelce are almost zero

Allen>Burrow in the playoffs by quite a bit

correct there's only so much better Allen can be. Whereas there are other areas of the team that can improve significantly more how much can you realistically squeeze out of the QB position...if he needs to be perfect to win a SB then it's not going to happen

Not a Daboll/Dorsey thing imo more a Beasley/McKenzie issue If we need Allen to improve or get to another level to win a Super Bowl it's likely not going to happen He threw 14 INTS, Burrow and Mahomes both had 12

shots fired 😂😂 “I’ve loved what I’ve seen from Trent (Sherfield) so far; the dude works extremely hard. He’s one of the hardest-working guys on the team. Doesn’t complain about anything . He’s rolling right now,” Allen said, via Alaina Getzenberg of ESPN.

So I am of two minds on this subject First is there are definitely areas underneath that can be utilized more, but I'm unsure we have the personnel to maximize production there. That's where Beasley lived and Knox doesn't run clean enough routes reliably in tight areas But further imo is that I really kind of want a higher ypa/ADOT with a guy like Allen...he has a unique skillset and I believe what people find fault with in Dorsey is actually him trying (not always succeeding, but trying hard I think) to maximize that. The risks are higher and comp% lower but rewards are greater

I doubt we will ever see a game like that again I mean that was legitimately one of the best playoff quarterback performances in NFL history

He wasn't just checking down and taking underneath stuff in that game is my point He was just on another level that playoff run. Some of the throws in the NE game in particular were legitimately 1 of 1 type stuff

His YPA in the NE playoff game was 12.3 fwiw Allen averages 7.2ypa for his career

Doesn't need to change a thing imo they need to put more competent people around him on offense

The chart is too small, can you enlarge it pls 🤙🤙

I actually get 44% for the first three seasons and 138/250 for the last 4 years on those odds given for 55.2% of the making the SB at least once in the last 4 years counting this upcoming season

Ok but that happens all the time in these areas I've repeated this example before but calculating the EV of a PAT vs 2pt try is using past events to determine future outcomes in present decision making

I mean yes the terms mean slightly different things but they're still both representations of what one could reasonably expect to happen. The difference between probabilities and odds is just in how they're expressed, they're both estimating the likelihood of an event.

That's how a majority of advanced stats that rely on EV/EPA are calculated, they're an aggregation of almost the entirety of previous NFL history on a play by play basis to determine a given value for a particular down.

So nothing then👍👍