GoBills808

josh cribbs for me but hester played longer iirc

this is the Allen comp, not Cam

quoted

always split 9s except against dealer's 10

Not sure what direct inverse proportion is but I'd say it's more the x^3 function

The Broncos fired John Fox in 2015 after three consecutive division titles going 13-3, 13-3, 12-4 respectively (good for 38-10 over a 3-year stretch) but being under .500 in the postseason. Guess what happened the very next season lol

If I was inclined to argue like you guys do it would be very easy to point out how hypocritical it is to claim one single data point regarding 4th down EV is proof Sean McDermott is a good in-game coach😂😂

That's a good way of putting it Disagree 100%

The dynasty angle is probably relevant and I haven't looked into it👍👍 Tomlin/Roethlisberger got theirs the year Brady did his knee iirc Maybe that's the fate of Allen/McDermott as well but they'd better hurry up is all in saying

Not exactly or even necessarily Maybe the Pegulas are happy w a stable, relatively successful franchise and don't need a Super Bowl victory for validation as has been claimed by several posters.

You must have missed the guy who keeps demanding a peer review, audit, and double blind study And the reason for being on the same team is because folks don't care if McDermott wins a Super Bowl for another team, we are Bills fans not Sean McDermott fans I assume

It has nothing to do w the owner's decisions It's (arguably) relevant to a prediction about McDermott's chances re: winning a Super Bowl in Buffalo

I know, it's how we support our arguments Like I could go through McDermott's win% and ask how many other coaches lucked into one of the weakest divisions sans Brady or were saddled w bad owners or a bad GM or no QB or whatever...but that's reductive. As valid as your line of questioning but just noise imo. There are easy criticisms of every method we can use to judge...the merits of your argument have to rest in your competence in explaining yourself, not how many holes you think you're poking in the other guy's logic.

For coaches I think it's almost impossible to be great w out a good QB. The league is too dependent on pass offenses. I believe we are seeing that w BB as you say although I would attribute a lot more of his success to Brady than others. Reid I think has credible case as GOAT HC as it stands imo BUT I think a great QB can elevate a coach more than the reverse is true, and that's why the one is always more important than the other

I don't care about his family values, and I think it's great he has cultivated a strong locker room. I always thought he'd make a great college or HS coach. I'd love for my son to play for him. I don't love him as the HC of the Bills. So I won't be checking *****. The goal in the NFL is to win Super Bowls and I don't think he can hack it.

'nobody's more objective than me!' 😂😂

I dispute this Allen is significantly more responsible for the Bills success than McDermott similarly McDermott will be fired before Allen because he's more replaceable, not because he's singularly responsible for victory or defeat

Of course I'm biased against McDermott, I think he's a fraud and at least I can admit it. You go around accusing people of being biased' as if you ask for citations and peer reviews on opinions you happen to agree with. You are not some arbiter of objectivity.

'Sean McDermott is unlikely to ever win a Super Bowl because no HC/QB combo ever has after their first five seasons together'...you need an independent statistics department review to make that analysis 'Sean McDermott is a great head coach because he has a high win%...applause

It is less likely that Allen's success is due to former defensive coordinator Sean McDermott's coaching than it is McDermott's 'best coach this century' title is due to Allen imo

I guess I see it as a valid comparison. w weather we look at all different climates, elevations, latitudes etc and you still get pretty reliable data from the past to make determinations about what might occur in the future. In the NFL we have different teams from different eras with different HC/QB combos, different locker rooms and different ownership but all with the same 5 year threshold for winning a Super Bowl...that would be enough for me to make a determination and feel fairly confident

Your contention is that in this particular data set, the 5 year threshold for winning the Super Bowl is an independent variable? You are saying there are no external factors on a football team/HC QB relationship/lockerroom politics/overall NFL landscape that might influence this 5 year threshold?

Why isn't it a good comparison? We are talking about sets of data points modelling outcomes, they're alike in that regard

I mean yes but that's what predictive models do, analyze past data and trends to assess likelihood of future outcomes Like we might double our expected annual rainfall next year but I'm not going to bet my crop on it

It's not that complicated I think No team that has ever started the same HC/QB combo for more than 5 years w no SB has seen them go on to win a championship