GoBills808

I doubt we will ever see a game like that again I mean that was legitimately one of the best playoff quarterback performances in NFL history

He wasn't just checking down and taking underneath stuff in that game is my point He was just on another level that playoff run. Some of the throws in the NE game in particular were legitimately 1 of 1 type stuff

His YPA in the NE playoff game was 12.3 fwiw Allen averages 7.2ypa for his career

Doesn't need to change a thing imo they need to put more competent people around him on offense

The chart is too small, can you enlarge it pls 🤙🤙

I actually get 44% for the first three seasons and 138/250 for the last 4 years on those odds given for 55.2% of the making the SB at least once in the last 4 years counting this upcoming season

Ok but that happens all the time in these areas I've repeated this example before but calculating the EV of a PAT vs 2pt try is using past events to determine future outcomes in present decision making

I mean yes the terms mean slightly different things but they're still both representations of what one could reasonably expect to happen. The difference between probabilities and odds is just in how they're expressed, they're both estimating the likelihood of an event.

That's how a majority of advanced stats that rely on EV/EPA are calculated, they're an aggregation of almost the entirety of previous NFL history on a play by play basis to determine a given value for a particular down.

So nothing then👍👍

I don't think people are really aware of how substantial a burden leading an elite passing attack while also chipping in enough yards/rush attempt by yourself to keep defenses honest is on a purely physical level

Jim Kelly in his entire career rushed for a little over 1000 yards and averaged less than 1 TD/season. Josh Allen has rushed for over 750yards in a single year (twice) and averages about 8TDs on the ground. Find me even one quantifiable thing Kelly does better than Allen.

So that's it? How about passer rating, ANY/A, TD/INT%, none of those metrics interest you?

Half the metrics that get thrown around in football are proprietary. Your standard is unrealistic

Setting aside the fact that he's systematically destroying every Buffalo Bills passing record w each passing season The dexterity with which you are able to go from saying 'I know that football is a multifaceted game with dependent variables because I am a peer reviewed author' in one thread and 'Jim Kelly is better than Josh Allen because 4 Super Bowls' in another is impressive

Giggles

By a country mile

You people need to relax lol

You serious w this

No. Some just recently hired their coach. Some have coaches w a SB and tenure. Some are content with their HC.

20% of 31≠31

On average over 20% of those 31 HCs do get fired annually

You're the one who quoted me their SB odds. I know the Bills odds. Unfortunately they're not representative of much beyond Vegas can finally make $$ on BUF after taking a beating pre 2022 when they finally pegged us to the right price and the public lost out on betting the Bills going 8-10 ats I mean in that sense yes they are contenders as much as any decent team in the conference is a SB contender because they made the playoffs, but realistically only the Chiefs and Bengals can actually lay claim to that because they're the only ones who have actually been in contention for a Super Bowl the last 3 years.

I follow the odds but contending to me speaks to results, not projections I would say you can't be a SB contender if you don't make it out of the divisional round yearly

They are adding up various scenarios relevant to the win probability metric over average