GunnerBill

I broadly agree, although I slightly disagree on Barron I think he is a lock for the top 15. But I'd put a ton of guys in that category of anywhere between #9 with the Saints and #32 with the Eagles..... Mykeil Williams, Shermar Stewart, James Pearce, the three DTs after Graham, Jihad Campbell, both the safeties, the top four receivers, both tight ends.... The guys I think are top 10 locks are: Cam Ward Abdul Carter Travis Hunter Mason Graham Then guys who could go top 10 but are top 15 locks: Ashton Jeanty Will Campbell Jahdae Barron Armand Membou I then think Mike Green and Jalon Walker will definitely go top 20. After that guys have very wide ranges IMO. What I'm trying to get from @nosejob and @Vickveto, not in an antagonistic way, but in the spirit of genuine discussion is ignore that first gaggle of guys who are out of reach... who might fall into the realistic trade up window who they would consider going up for?

There has been a significant resource shift the past three years. They have spent the money that used be spent on the secondary on the offensive line. And they have invested premium picks on Kincaid, Coleman, Torrence, Cook and Amari Cooper (via trade) as well as continuing to invest in mid tier FA contracts - most recently Samuel and Palmer. Add that to Josh's cap hits increasing.... and you get to his position. The big issue thus far is that the draft picks are still to fully deliver on investment.

We are not getting to the Graham and Carter range. We just aren't. So let's leave that to the side for now.... who are the guys that "fill" this draft and match our needs that you would want the Bills to consider trading up for in say the teens or the early 20s? Because that is a realistic conversation to have.

I don't think we are keeping 10 rookie either. I just don't think there is a realistic missing piece trade up in round one that makes sense, is affordable and will justify that cost. It isn't that I am anti-trade ups per se. I wanted the Bills to trade up for Brian Thomas Jnr last year. I wanted them to trade up for Jordan Addison the year before. I just don't see that guy who can be "the missing piece" in this class beyond the top 4 or 5 guys who are just not in realistic range. My strategy would be to pick the best player available at a premium position at #30, then use our 6 picks from the late 4th onwards to move around the board in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds to match value with need.

It comes back to @gonzo1105's point. I just don't think there is big separation between the top 2 or 3 corners and the next group.

And with less talent around him he looked significantly more ordinary this past season. I'm a bit of a Will Johnson sceptic though. I do have a 1st round grade on him but a low one. I'm lower than the consensus on him for sure. I just don't think his 2024 tape is very good.

Jesus who tried to argue that? Our safety play was easily 32nd in the NFL in 2024.

Yep. I like Barron quite a bit more than I like Johnson but he isn't what the Bills look for anyway and I don't think either of them are in that "can't miss, swing for the fences" trade up territory.

That is where you strike into a problem. I think late second is likely to be a bit of a wasteland at corner. In terms of corners with 1st or 2nd type grades I have: 1st round: Hunter (if you think he is a CB); Barron; Johnson 1st/2nd: Revel - MAJOR injury red flag 2nd: Hariston; Morrison - MAJOR injury red flag; Amos; Thomas 2nd/3rd: Porter And there are so many corner needy teams I am just not sure any of those 9 get to the Bills at the bottom of the second unless the medicals on Revel or Morrison are so bad that they fall - and if that is the case the Bills won't pick them anyway. After that my next tier is something like Dorian Strong, Cobee Bryant and Zy Alexander.... but I feel like 2nd round is a reach for any of those guys and there almost certainly will be better, more talented, players on the board at other spots. If their plan is to take defensive line at #30 and wait on corner until round 2.... I think they will have to be willing to move UP in the second. Personally, no. I think his Ole Miss tape is a lot better and more consistent than his A&M tape and I just think there is something weird about Texas A&M Dline coaching. they take very talented guys and make them look kind of average. I think Nic Scourton is another example. You only see flashes on the A&M tape then you put his Purdue film on and it's like "wow". I understand there may be off-field / personality concerns with Nolen and that might push him down to the end of round 1 or even into the top of day 2. But without the information to take a view on that I have him as a first round grade.

Packaging their first 3 picks gets you to #12 by the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart and to #10 by the revised Rich Hill chart. Weaker draft so might take slightly less.... they could possibly get just inside that top 10.... 8 or 9 maybe. I don't think they have a chance to get higher than that for two reasons: 1. value and 2. the number of blue chip prospects in this draft is max 4 or 5. When you factor two teams taking QBs (who are not among them) that means #6 or #7 you might get a blue chipper. I just think teams will be reluctant to move down much further than that because they are then dropping a tier in terms of prospects.

I have Grant below Graham, Nolen and Harmon. He is DT4 for me. But agree if you want a high end 1T he is the best pure 1T in the class. I think Harmon can play both, Graham and Nolen are 3Ts only.

Yep, and it is why I hate any rationale anywhere that links the Bills picks early in this draft to the fact he has signed two suspended guys. You don't get to use your own screw ups as a rationale for the next move you make.

They don't have a load of ammo. Five of those 10 picks are late 5th or 6th rounders. Those are next to hopeless for moving up in round 1.

I know it is camp fodder but he is terrible.

And you wouldn't find one.

It couldn't. No way.

Agree. They have outdated ownership.

You are the one lying to yourself. Or you don't understand the draft. What you are talking about is a nice idea but it is next to impossible. The Giants are not tanking. They probably should be. But the owner has told the GM and Coach it is "win or else" in 2025. With that ultimatum there is zero chance they drop to #30. Even if they were trying to stack picks for next year.... the Bills are gonna have a late 1st. That doesn't help a ton. I agree we need a blue chipper. But there are very few of them in this draft (at least in terms of sure things) and we have no chance to get one.

Carter won't get to #5. And Jax would not move down to #30 regardless.

They can't get to the Titans, Browns, Giants, Jags picks. No team in the top 5 has a reason to drop down to #30. To do that the Bills would have to be willing to do it in two deals.... and they just don't have the capital. And in this draft I am not that fussed about getting to #11 or #14. I don't think the talent differential is that big between #11 and #30. There are max 5 or 6 blie chippers in this class.

What is wrong with people is they are frustrated with the lack of high end talent on the roster besides Josh. And while Beane doesn't have many outright misses, that's true, and a lot of his guys really come on in year 2 and 3, also true, and we pick late every year, also true..... it is 7 years waiting for him to find an elite player beyond Josh. Eventually all that context doesn't matter. You just gotta find a monster hit. And without it, I'm afraid, the pressure is going to grow. It isn't a secret on the Bills. It is known across the league - they have a ton of good players, they lack great ones.

The Bills spent their first 3 picks last year on a WR, a safety and a DT. Then came into this offseason with at best 3 of the 4 biggest weaknesses on the roster being WR, S, DT. If by this time next year none of Coleman, Bishop or Carter look like hits the pressure on Beane is going to ramp right up. Unless he finds an early round rookie stud in 2025.

I think he is pretty good too. But he isn't a star.

By money it is Darnold (a reclamation project QB starter), Dan Moore Jnr (a slightly below average starting left tackle) and Milton Williams (a backup / rotational DT on the best defense in football). I'd personally say in terms of guys still within their peak and able to contribute the actual answer might be Charvarius Ward, Paulson Adebo and possibly Talanoa Hufanga. Ward is a CB1 who is leaving the bay area not just for football reasons, Adebo is a CB2 and Hufanga is a good not great safety. Could throw Josh Sweat in there too but he is again a rotational edge used to coming in after the starters have wreaked havoc. Remains to be seen what he does when he is supposed to be "the guy". It isn't spectacular is it?

I think in more general, less Bills specific, answer to the OP's point - the fast acceleration of the salary cap and the increasing wealth of owners in the league has increasingly turned free agency into the way that the middle class of the NFL player cohort moves around. As a way to acquire a difference maker? It has limited use. You can get starters, you can rarely get stars and certainly not at the premium positions. If you want vet difference makers now you acquire them via trade.