GunnerBill

What was he supposed to do? Run down and make the tackle? He had the right D called. His players failed to execute.

I sort of agree and at the same time disagree. Where I think you are right is Josh made more plays last year within the structure of the offense than any year since 2020. And the run game was really reliable all year whereas in 2023 it was spotty. Where I have a slight reservation though is that a lot of our bigger plays, our explosives, did come from Josh creating. And that is my worry. It's fine nickel and diming your way down the field but that is a hard way to live drive in and drive out and when Brady called shot plays within the strucutre of the offense they were rarely there because our guys couldn't get open down the field. The explosives that worked were largely scramble drill situations.

I would be very surprised.

Nor me. The below is from my Day 2 Debrief thread from last year's draft: "In round three the Bills snagged DeWayne Carter, the defensive tackle from Duke. I thought this was something of a reach. He was ranked #137 on my board with a late 4th round grade and the Bills took him at #95. I am not surprised they valued him higher though. He is one of those 5 year guys, slightly older prospect but a good RAS score and high character guy. And the Bills needed to get some long term options into this room. Aside from Ed Oliver all their other defensive tackles are older guys or 1 year rentals. The reason I was a bit lower on him is I think he actually regressed in 2023. Some of that might be on the way Duke used him, they were struggling to outside pressure and tried to use him off the edge in some package but he doesn't really have the body for that or the first step explosion you need. For all his athleticism he is a hustle player rather than a guy who uses that athleticism to win and while his tape was definitely better in 2022 when he was used more conventionally as a 3T the majority of snaps I see his ceiling as a rotational 3 tech who plays behind Ed Oliver. Carter is in theory big enough to play some 1T snaps but I don't like his technique against the run and I think his anchor would need to improve. To me this was something of a need pick. Think everyone knew the Bills were in for a defensive tackle at some point and the run early in the day had left the ice a little thin there and Buffalo simply thought waiting to round 4 and the board might be empty at that spot."

Did they already negotiate reductions? Or does he mean like clauses about PEDs in their deals that will now trigger?

And mine. When they drafted him I thought he could do a bit of 1T but the usage he got last year was exclusively as a 3T. He lsot the backup 3T job to Jefferson and Phillips down the stretch. He know has 6 weeks to prove it before pilled up Larry is ready to go. Otherwise he is gonna be 3rd string again.

Ah yes, so he did. Still, it's pretty rare. I think with all the edge guys early Nolen and Grant will end up later than they would in a lot of other years.

I'd be surprised if he goes top 20. Dexter Lawrence at #17 is the highest I can remember a 1T going. They normally start to go late first.

Yea it's 1 year $20m. An overpay but a low risk one for a cap rich team like New England in a weak FA class.

Agree. And if San Fran is willing to move him after moving Deebo that doesn't give me great confidence either. And I am an Aiyuk fan. I was high on him coming out and I think he is a #1 receiver. A lower end #1 maybe, but a #1. I just think it is a bad risk / reward proposition at this point.

The tag is only to be used on a guy you are pretty confident you are going to be able to work a deal out with but you need more time. The Lev Bell experience basically killed off using a tag on someone because you just want to stop them hitting the market. Tee Higgins played on the tag last year which is pretty rare these days and even he then signed an extension. If the Bills tag James Cook next year I'd bet a pound to a penny the Bills then extend him before camp.

Switch me round on Rousseau - where I am ambivalent and Bernard - don't like, it's an overpay. But otherwise I broadly agree. I actually don't think the bigger problem is the retentions. I think the bigger problem is we had a moderate amount of freedom for FAs.... and yet again he threw 3 contracts at DL. And did so without getting a natural 1T and ended up with two guys who can't play until week 7. His offensive upgrade is the bare minimum level of what we needed at outside receiver. It's fine but not difference making. Whenever given the option Beane throws FA dollars at a plethora of mid range defensive linemen. That strategy hasn't worked in 7 years. Maybe year 8 is the boon.

And a significant bump from what they got from last year's draft class. I think that is what they will be hoping for. I am not sure I think that is super likely (of the three picks I only really liked Bishop and he was terrible as a rookie, like unbelievably bad) but I suppose it is worth remembering that of the 4 guys from the 2022 class that we are now extending (or talking about extending in Cook's case) only Benford really made any impact as a rookie. The other three came on year 2. What I will say is I think all the deals they have done this summer (excluding Josh obviously) this one, for Benford, is the biggest slam dunk. He is very good player, could still take another step into elite territory, plays a premium position and has signed a below marlet rate extension.

This is simply not true.

Agree. Other than the concussions they are not like long term reoccuring type injuries. If someone is constantly doing groins and hammys etc that is a bigger concern. His are just random injuries where the timing has sucked.

Just one more point on the signings more generally - I did say back in January I expected Beane to tie most of his 2022 draft up and he has now done 3 of the 4 guys we were talking about from that class. It is his best draft since 2018. It is something he can hang his hat on as GM. If he let them all walk then this time next year when you started looking at the roster to find Beane's draft successes beyond rookie contracts it would likely have just been Allen, Oliver, Taron and Spencer Brown. That's not a ton for a guy who has been in situ for 8 drafts. With the three 2022 guys and Groot it looks a lot healthier a list.

And he is spot on by the way.

Especially a guy like Benford who was a 6th round pick. His rookie deal paid him $3.8m total. Nice. Enough to be life changing, but not really enough to give him and his family total lifetime security. So I get betting on yourself but if he tears his knee up badly or something else week 1 having not signed and is never the same again and doesn't manage to cash in that matters to him more than most. That gave the Bills some leverage. As with all contracts devil is in the detail but sounds like a hell of a win to me.

He might only have had one "great" season but he had a pretty darn good one in 2023 too. That is not me advocating paying him. But I think he is still actually a bit underrated by some Bills fans.

It's a great contract for the Bills.

Ha. I have him 3rd. I'll explain it very gently. And then agree with him.

He was in 2024. For sure.

When he is wide the Bills run it. I did have the breakdown late in the season (around week 14 or 15 or so). Can't put my hands on it right now - and I don't know that I saw an updated number at the end of the year - but it was like 80% of the time Shakir splits wide the Bills run it and his actual receptions from wide splits were like 10 or 11 I think.

And yet when Josh has had the ball with a chance to win the in the playoffs the past two years he hasn't had that guy to make a play for him. I'm sure Bills would be top 5 or 6 in scoring next year even if they did nothing more on offense, so long as Josh is healthy. But am I sure that it will be any different in the post season in the clutch when we need a guy to step up and make a play? No.

Except of course this regime has zero responsibility for Q.