GunnerBill

I'd be surprised. I think the Saints will draft trenches.

If Vegas takes Jeanty I think Hampton to the Bears is plausible. I suppose I struggle to see it otherwise..... I think it would have to be Vegas and Chicago.

Yea Egbuka has the safest floor of the top 4 receiver IMO. I think he is pretty safely a productive NFL slot / move receiver. The question on him was more a ceiling one - but I'm actually less worried about it than I was. I honestly think his style is so smooth and fluid your eyes kinda lie to you about how explosive he is at the same time. Agree though, he isn't going top 10.

Camarda was pretty good his first two seasons. From what I understand he struggled some in pre-season last year and was out of sync with his coverage teams and it seemed to get into his head and he started miskicking balls when the real games began. If he can get his confidence and technique back I think he is more than good enough.

I think it is one of the thinnest tops of a draft I have seen. But actually the sort of second tier - between late 1st and mid 2nd - and the 3rd tier between mid second and early 3rd are pretty deep. It then thins out a bit again by my grades in mid to late 3rd before a deeper round 4 group. It is one of the oddest looking boards I've had visually, it kind of goes: i iiiiiiiii iiiiiiiii iiii iiiiiiii Should say my average 1st round grades is about 19/20 so I'm a little below the consensus average. It is more 1st round grades than the 11 I had two years ago, but the difference then was I had 6 or 7 top 15 types. It was after that it thinned out a bit. I think this draft is overall stronger than that one. 2023 was not a great draft beyond the top 10 or so.

So there is really a top 4 for me that are guys who would be top 15 players in any draft: 1. Travis Hunter; 2. Abdul Carter; 3. Mason Graham; 4. Ashton Jeanty. Hunter and Carter are top 10 grades, Graham and Jeanty are top 15 (i.e. top half of round 1 grades). I then have 4 mid-firsts: 5. Jahdae Barron; 6. Kelvin Banks Jnr; 7. Malaki Starks; 8. Tet McMillan. The rest of my firsts are all late 1st rounders. I have 14 or 15 total. There is one I have been back and forth on and need to find some more film.

He is my #5 overall player.

Any ranking that has Barron at #35 needs throwing away......

The issue with the "draft a running back" thinking is unless the trade Cook - which does not sound like it is their plan - there is no room for one on the 2025 roster. Cook, Davis and Johnson are all making it. They are not carrying those 3, Gilliam and a fourth out and out running back. I suspect they will just promote Davis next year to be the starter and draft one in next year's draft to be the 1-2 punch.

There is significantly more variation between different pass plays and versions of the Quarterback sneak. The gaps that the Quarterback is looking for to make the line to gain are the same gaps and KC had blocked them up. I see no reason why they wouldn't have stopped a conventional sneak.

Zabel is a guard at the NFL level I would think, possibly even a center. And the Bills do, beyond this season, have possible question marks about the interior offensive line with both McGovern and Edwards going into their contract years. So as a non-Bills expert looking in I don't think giving them a long term interior offensive linemen is necessarily a total fail. However, those of us who know how this regime operates know that despite some years where their oline was a significant problem they have never drafted an offensive lineman in round one. Fair, I think, to assume they'd only be willing to break that for a left tackle. Which is not a need and which Zabel wouldn't necessarily fill even if it were. Secondly, his arms are below the Bills minimum threshold at 32 inches. Of the nine offensive linemen that we all expect to make the Bills roster in 2025 only SVPG has below 33 inch arms. And he spent his entire rookie year as their third string center. Whether it is edge rusher, corner, or offensive line.... we know the Bills care about arm length. Can't ever imagine them drafting a first round offensive lineman who doesn't meet that physical profile.

With the 10th pick of the 2025 TSW Mock Draft version 1.0, the Chicago Bears select: Ashton Jeanty, Running Back, Boise State If the board falls as it did here I honestly think the Bears pick comes down to Will Campbell or Ashton Jeanty. The thing that doesn't get discussed enough about offensive mastermind Ben Johnson is how similar he is to Greg Roman, in the sense that I think the real creativity in his offense is in the run game moreso than the passing game. So you better give him a high end talent at the running back position to help execute that. I doubt he believes that is D'Andre Swift who he was happy to see traded away while he was the OC in Detroit. And in a weak upper end of the first round this year it guarantees the Bears end up with one of the few, genuine, upper first round graded talents. It eventually comes down to Jeanty is just a better football player than Campbell. The San Francisco 49ers and @H2o are now on the clock.

I thought implicit in my answer was the Chiefs stopped one kind of QB sneak, there is no reason to expect they wouldn't have stopped another.

We'd have still run sneaks. They aren't making sneaks illegal. Just the idea of the tush push.

I have been an ardent defender of Frazier because most of the virtriol that comes his way is simply ill informed. On the play in the "structured" part of the play the Bills were in the right positons. When the play broke down the players panicked.

I can wait two more years. But if we go 10-7 and 9-8 the two years after winning our first Lombardi I guarantee all those "win a Superbowl and McDermott and Beane can stay for life" folks would be singing a very different song 😆

Commanders still free too unless you are in process of updating.

Almost. A zero is actually lining up right on the nose, over the center. That is more of a 3-4 alignment thing. The 1T plays in the A gap between centre and guard, primarily to the weakside of the formation (i.e. side where the tight end isn't) and then your 3T plays in the B gap between the guard and the tackle, primarily to the strong side of the formation. But yea, a good 1T can generally absorb a double team from the C and the G and still occupy that gap forcing a back to bounce into the B gap where hopefully you have your linebackers attacking the play.

I don't think Harmon is strictly a 3T. My guess is he ends up playing more 1T than 3T in his NFL career.

Bears Seahawks Texans

The line to gain is the 37. At the point Watson actually plants in the pocket before the pressure forces him to scramble out left (i.e. the point when the called pass should take place) the Bills have 4 rushers, 5 other defenders in the intermediate zone ahead of the sticks and only 2 at or behind the sticks. What happens is Watson breaks contain out to the left and the Bills defenders panic and overplay the deep ball which means by the time Johnson catches it at the 29 the Bills only have 1 player still in that intermediate zone and he is out of the play right on the sidleine. They have all panicked and bailed out. And even then Edmunds gets back to initiate contact 3 yards short of the sticks and Johnson carries him for 3 yards. That isn't on coaching. That is a pure execution failure.

I'm coming if they do

Honestly, I might be one of the few people who couldn't care less about whether they ban the tush push. It's just a variant of the Quarterback sneak. Do I think if they change the rules and teams have to go old school QB sneak success rates will plummet? No. They might go down a bit, but not to an extent that radically alters the game.

It only looks easy to get out because the bonus hasn't triggered. Once it has it is somewhat more difficult to get out.

No, I disagree on how good he is (or was at least pre injury) I don't disagree on the fit for us right now. I said in my first post in the thread I like the player, like him quite a bit, but regrettably given the full circumstances at this stage I'd pass.