GunnerBill

Ahhhhh now Erik's video last week defending Groot's dreadful performance in the AFCCG makes a lot more sense...... Shills gotta shill.

My view on pick #30 is they should take the guy they think has the best chance to be a high end difference maker at a premium position - Edge, WR, CB - within 2 years. I think elite talent is a bigger need on this team than any single position.

Yea I thought watching the Franklin tape last year that Tez was gonna be at least an early day 2 guy. He popped every time you watched the film. He was the best receiver on that team. But his 2024 tape was less impressive and his run at the combine was really disappointing. Sometimes you think smaller guys are running faster than they are because of the perpetual motion and low centre of gravity. He was in my top 10 at one point but he is I think WR15 for me now.

Yuck. The idea of rubbing anyone's feet is frankly, disgusting.

I promise you nothing would make me vomit quicker.

It is partly his footwork - especially off the line - that is right. But it is largely that he plays to contact. He wants to feel the DB and play off that. It means he gives up leverage constantly, closes his own spaces and ends up reactive instead of proactive in his routes. I am sure it is his basketball background coming out but that is a concern because it means it is probably deeply ingrained in him. There is a lot of unlearning for him to do. He has to completely change the way he runs downfield routes if he ever wants to separate. It doesn't happen when he is in the slot and gets a free release. In those situations he dictates where he is going and makes defenders react to him. But if he is lined up against a DB outside he looks for that DB and plays off the contact. Unless he fixes it his ceiling is limited.

Oh I think they will contend. I just think this is the year they lose a close one somewhere in the post season.

Before last draft we were tied 32nd.

I don't think KC makes the Superbowl in 2025. I am not saying the Bills will but last time after a bashing in the Superbowl they didn't make it back the next year.

Excellent post. Agree with every word.

Oh he can definitely improve. But he would have to totally re-learn his technique in running downfield routes outside to be what the Bills need. Honestly what I see is 3 years of him giving WR2/3 production and then he leaves in free agency for a Gabe Davis type deal when corrected for inflation on a team with a rookie contract QB.

Josh has only had 3. Rico was before Josh. He had Dabes for 4 seasons, then Dorsey for 1.5 seasons now Brady for 1.5 seasons going into 2025.

They have only hired one rookie OC - Ken Dorsey. Rico, Dabes and Joe B had all been NFL OCs before taking the role here. Don't disagree on the general quality of their skill guys though.

Yea it was the weekend before FA opened. They did Milano, Daryl Williams and Feliciano in a flurry.

I think he will go in the 2nd round. Probably within the first 10 to 15 picks of it.

Yea I also think there is a world where Pittsburgh, the Jets or Vegas jumps back into the end of round 1 for him How very fancy!

Possibly. It is a value of the board thing for me there. Egbuka is almost BPA (depending on Revel's medicals). I did have a bit back of mind as well that at some point AJ Brown is gonna go full Diggs, right? I reckon Howie knows that too and isn't gonna want to get caught where the Bills did with an empty receiver room if he loses him a year before the plan or whatever. It depends on the medicals I think. Feels like the mood music is he will fall into day 2. But it only takes one team to be willing to take the risk.

Oh I agree. I did not like Elam and I do like Hariston. I don't think he is a technically sound as Tre was coming out and I do think he is a bit more of a guesser which typically McDermott doesn't like. But I'd be fine with Hariston. I'd take him over Grant and they were the two I was tossing up there in the mock as to what the Bills would do. I suppose in part it came down a bit as well to I think Grant is more likely to go round 1 than Hariston is. And you are always balancing that a bit when you are mocking too. How do you try and get as close as possible to the right 32 names. In terms of my board currently Grant is #28 and Hariston is #31. So it isn't like there is a huge gap. Egbuka (who you mention above) is #25 and Revel (although with a huge health asterisk is #19. I have a 1st/2nd borderline tape grade on Revel. The other guys there are all upper 2nds. As you mentioned it in your previous post as well convenient place for me to say the more time I have spent on it the more I like this draft class. It is a good class IMO. Except for it is like someone has stolen about 5-10 guys from the top of it. If there were another 5 or 6 high 1st round grades I think this would be one of the strongest drafts I have done. Right now I only have 15 firsts (plus 4 borderlines) but I have 34 seconds. And the depth flows into my 3rd and 4th round grades too. It is a good group just lacking the star power at the very top. Your principle is absolutely spot on. Bad organisations do bad things though. And over the last decade the Giants are a terrible organisation.

That is probably right on Sanders. I think my instinct is more that he isn't really their guy but they feel compelled to pick a QB and are forcing it because of the mess of a position ownership has created. I think it is not the kind of trade a well run team ever makes.... but the Giants are not a well run team. I mean they are likely gonna sign Russ as a vet after making it abundently clear he is their absolute last resort. It's an utter shambles. Haha yes on the Packers. There is a bit of ears in that pick too. The three big ears picks in that mock are Banks, Golden and Nolen. Obviously we are into lying season so you gotta be careful but those 3 links feel legit. Although I will say the journo in Wisconsin said basically that while everything he is hearing says they'd struggle to pass on Golden he will also believe it only when he sees it.

Yea they might have to trade up in the 2nd. I think Hariston is the next guy but not sure he is totally their type. Bad in run support, a poor tackler and a bit of a risk taker. I like him a lot, and I'd be willing to gamble on coaching him up... but after Elam will that make them nervous to take that risk? If Grant was gone I think maybe they'd do it, but if he is there I think they might find him hard to pass on.

Yea well they can hand it to Reece 400 times a game for him to run into the back of his linemen.... It's a fair point though. I think the Jets are out on these QBs but the Giants may well not be willing to take that risk.

Hariston. I think I would take Amos if he made it though.

You are still looking at version 1.....

Okay so here is version 2.0 post the initial wave of free agency. I always do version 1.0 and my final version on draft day as no trade mocks, but I like in version 2.0 to play around with some trade scenarios that make sense. I don't see a ton of trades in round one this year, but I had a go at three here that made sense to me and they allow you to see what impact one unexpected change in the order can do to the way things play out from that point. Anyway.... here goes! 1 – Tennessee Titans – Cam Ward – Quarterback, Miami While there were rumours around the Combine that Tennessee could shop this pick for a big enough haul in return, their lack of action at Quarterback in free agency tells a different story. The Titans are giving up on the Will Levis experiment and are about to make Cam Ward the face of their franchise. 2 – Cleveland Browns – Travis Hunter – Cornerback / Wide Receiver, Colorado Cleveland has also done limited business in the Quarterback market – trading for Kenny Pickett – though they might still pursue another veteran. However, I think it unlikely they select one here, which means they will take either Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. With Myles Garrett signed to a new deal I think the perimeter playmaking ability of Hunter (on both sides of the ball) fills a bigger need. 3 – TRADE!! Carolina Panthers – Abdul Carter – Edge Rusher, Penn State (Panthers get #3, Giants get #3, #57 and 2026 1st round pick) The Giants currently don’t have a Quarterback and might need to pick a guy they don’t love early in this draft. A way of sweetening that might be to slide back a few spots first and pick up some extra draft capital – think the Bills and EJ Manuel in 2013 – and with the Raiders hiring a ‘win now’ coach in his 70s and trading for Geno Smith the risk of moving back and missing out altogether has subsided somewhat. They would need a trade partner of course, a desperate team needing edge rush help – enter the Carolina Panthers with an impetuous and impatient owner who has been willing to take big draft swings before and 32-year-old Jadaveon Clowney currently pencilled in as their #1 rusher. Carter would be a home run pick for a Panthers regime that probably has to show some signs of progress in 2025 to be back in 2026. 4 – New England Patriots – Will Campbell – Offensive Tackle, LSU I would expect New England’s ideal scenario is for two Quarterbacks to go in the first three picks which would guarantee them either Carter or Hunter, the two best prospects in this class. However, in a world like this one where both of those guys are gone I think they’d revert from BPA to biggest need and that is certainly the offensive line. Will Campbell would start day one at left tackle. 5 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Mason Graham – Defensive Tackle, Michigan Some people have started to cool on the Graham to Jacksonville fit at #5, especially since he weighed in under 300lbs at the Combine. However, I think some of that is just people trying to find new takes. It is still the pick that makes the most sense to me when you match value with need and he would be an enormous upgrade for the Jaguars. 6 – Las Vegas Raiders – Ashton Jeanty – Running Back, Boise State As mentioned above the Raiders have hired a Head Coach in his 70s and traded for a veteran ‘bridge’ Quarterback in Geno Smith. Those moves suggest the team is trying to get more competitive right now rather that rebuild for the future. We know Pete Carroll wants to run the football and he won’t be around to worry about what happens to Jeanty beyond his rookie deal. 7 – New York Jets – Armand Membou – Offensive Tackle, Missouri The Jets offensive line has been a mess for years, but they finally are starting to look like they have something. Ola Fashanu was impressive as a rookie, the interior is much improved, and now they have a chance to add Armand Membou as a bookend on the right side. Aaron Glenn knows as well as anyone, coming from Detroit, the value that a strong offensive line brings. 8 – New York Giants (from Carolina) – Shedeur Sanders – Quarterback, Colorado Having picked up their extra ammunition from the trade down the Giants now have to take their shot at Quarterback. I expect that guy still to be Shedeur Sanders, but Jaxon Dart is not totally out of the question. 9 – New Orleans Saints – Shermar Stewart – Edge Rusher, Texas A&M Edge rusher remains a need for the Saints, despite the big contract handed out to retain Chase Young’s services. As I pointed out in version 1.0, Cam Jordan is 35 and only has six sacks over the last two seasons. Stewart is an athletic freak who has flown up boards since the Combine and the Saints have never shied away from going for potential over production when drafting edge rushers. 10 – Chicago Bears – Nick Emmanwori – Safety, South Carolina The Bears roster looks pretty good on paper, so if Ben Johnson can bring improvement out of Caleb Williams they could contend in the fiendishly difficult NFC North. However, they could stand to upgrade the athleticism at the safety position where Kevin Byard will be 32 by September and while I think this is too high for Emmanwori his physical profile will be enticing to some. 11 – San Francisco 49ers – Kelvin Banks Jr – Offensive Tackle, Texas I had this match in version 1.0 and I still love the fit. Trent Williams is now 36, missed 7 games in 2024 and his backup, Jaylon Moore, went to Kansas City in free agency while starting left guard Aaron Banks left for the Packers. Kelvin Banks, who could play at guard as a rookie before taking over from Williams at tackle, makes a ton of sense and he met with the 49ers at the Combine. 12 – Dallas Cowboys – Tetairoa McMillan – Wide Receiver, Arizona The Cowboys spent most of their free agency dollars on the defense and bolstering what was the worst running back room in football in 2024. However, they did nothing to upgrade at wide receiver where beyond CeeDee Lamb the cupboard is bare. Tet McMillan ran a 4.48 at his pro day which I think dispels some concern about his long speed and I don’t see him sliding much further than this. 13 – Miami Dolphins – Tyler Warren – Tight End, Penn State Miami should go defense at this spot given their needs but I just wonder if Tyler Warren might be too tempting to pass up. The one-piece Mike McDaniel has been looking for to complete his version of the Shanahan offense is a tight end who can play in line and be a receiving weapon in space. Jonnu Smith was a reasonable placeholder last year but Warren would be a long term answer. 14 – TRADE!! Seattle Seahawks – Jalon Walker – Edge Rusher, Georgia (Seahawks get #14 & #80; Colts get #18 & #50) Jalon Walker is one of the most confounding evaluations in this draft. Is he a linebacker? Is he an edge rusher? One team for whom that likely doesn’t matter is Seattle because Mike McDonald’s defense moves guys about and they have needs in both spots. There is a run of teams ahead of their original pick at #18 that are likely in the edge market and with 5 picks in the first three rounds Seattle has more than enough ammunition to make a move up to get to the front of the queue. The Colts need help in a few spots and likely figure they can still address one of their major needs four picks later. 15 – Atlanta Falcons – Mike Green – Edge Rusher, Marshall Atlanta did make some effort to upgrade its anaemic pass rush by bringing it veteran ‘gun-for-hire’ Leonard Floyd on a one-year deal. However, they lost Grady Jarrett at the same time and they still need to do more work to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Green needs to develop his strength against the run, but he had a strong senior bowl and is an explosive, bendy rusher. 16 – Arizona Cardinals – Jahdae Barron – Cornerback, Texas Barron is one of the best players in this class and if he was slightly longer he would be a slam dunk top 10 pick. However, Cardinals Head Coach Jonathan Gannon cares less than some about size and loves corners with inside/outside flex that he can use as matchup pieces. Barron fits that profile perfectly. I expect him to shine in this scheme. 17 – Cincinnati Bengals – Mykel Williams – Edge Rusher, Georgia The Bengals have paid both of their stud receivers but they have yet to find an agreement with pass rush specialist Trey Hendrikson. With uncertainty over his future, Joseph Ossai on the other side of the line only being on a one-year deal and Myles Murphy yet to justify the first round pick they spent on him, Mykel Williams might be too good to pass up as an injection of youth at the edge position. 18 – Indianapolis Colts (from Seattle) – Will Johnson – Cornerback, Michigan I don’t really know where to start with the Colts roster which is severely lacking in elite talent and game changers. Lou Anarumo has arrived as defensive coordinator and made upgrading the secondary a priority. They snagged Charvarius Ward to man one corner spot in free agency, if they add Johnson on the other side that at least makes their secondary an identifiable strength. 19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jihaad Campbell – Linebacker, Alabama Another match I had in version 1.0, although if it wasn’t for the shoulder injury I would have moved Campbell up and he could well go higher. The Buccaneers have signed Lavonte David up to another one-year deal for 2025 so they could ease Campbell into the lineup alongside him, once healthy, to learn from the veteran down the stretch before taking over as the alpha in that room in 2026. 20 – TRADE!! Houston Texans – Josh Simmons – Offensive Tackle, Ohio State (Texans get #20; Broncos get #25 and #89) Houston needed offensive line help even before trading Laremy Tunsil to the Commanders. While they got a good return for Tunsil and moved on a big contract, he was by far their best blocker and free agent signings Cam Robinson and Trent Brown are, at best, sticking plasters. Simmons, once fully recovered from his ACL tear, has the potential to man the Texans’ left tackle spot for a decade. But Pittsburgh, who just lost their left tackle in free agency and Green Bay who have a serviceable but upgradeable starter at the spot are currently slated to pick before Houston and so the Texans flip one of their two third rounders to get to this pick. 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Walter Nolen – Defensive Tackle, Ole Miss I’m working on the basis that Aaron Rodgers is going to be the Quarterback in Pittsburgh even if it is not done yet. If this pick is not Quarterback I believe it will be defensive line in an effort to find a long term replacement for the great Cam Heyward. The Steelers’ top brass were out in force at the Ole Miss pro day last week, and Walter Nolen is apparently the apple of their eye. 22 – Los Angeles Chargers – Colston Loveland, Tight End, Michigan The Chargers brought back Mike Williams after one year away (spent with two different franchises) and signed Tyler Conklin in free agency to try and upgrade their pass game targets for Justin Herbert. But they still need to do more there and here Jim Harbaugh gets that chance to go back to his Michigan Wolverines and snag Loveland, a chain moving tight end, who fits the Greg Roman offense. 23 – Green Bay Packers – Matthew Golden – Wide Receiver, Texas I know, I know…. Green Bay doesn’t pick receivers in round one. Indeed, they rarely go offense in the first round but I think during the second half of last season the limitations of its wide receiver by committee strategy were shown up. With speedster Christian Watson coming off an ACL, and entering a contract year, Golden fills both a short and long term need. 24 – Minnesota Vikings – Malaki Starks – Safety, Georgia Harrison Smith is 36 and returning to the Vikings on a one-year deal. They don’t have a lot else at safety and Malaki Starks is the sort of smart, instinctive and disciplined defensive back that defensive coordinator Brian Flores covets. Smith played more in the box last year and bringing in Starks to play deep allows him to stay closer to the line where he isn’t asked to cover as much ground. 25 – Denver Broncos (from Houston) – Luther Burden III – Wide Receiver, Missouri Denver is feeling pretty good about Bo Nix after making the playoffs behind their rookie Quarterback in 2024 and they will want to continue building the talent around him. I think Burden is very talented but needs a creative mind to get the best from him and I wonder if Denver would essentially give him the ‘Alvin Kamara’ passing routes that Sean Payton used to great effect in New Orleans. 26 – Los Angeles Rams – Trey Amos – Corner, Ole Miss The Rams went into the offseason with potential needs at left tackle (extended Alaric Jackson), wide receiver (signed Davonte Adams and extended Tutu Atwell), nose tackle (signed Poona Ford) and corner, where they have not yet made a move. They do not have a second-round pick so I expect them address that need here. Amos is the cleanest prospect among the second-tier corners. 27 – Baltimore Ravens – James Pearce – Edge Rusher, Tennessee This just feels so Baltimore. Wait, let the board fall to them and then snag someone who on pure talent alone could easily have gone ten picks earlier. Off the field concerns look like they are going to drop Pearce into the second half of the first round at least but the Ravens trust their culture with questionable character guys and they need to add juice to their pass rush. 28 – Detroit Lions – Donovan Ezeiruaku – Edge Rusher, Boston College The Lions roster is pretty stacked but they need some edge help opposite Aiden Hutchinson. They do get Marcus Davenport back, whose season ended in week two last year, but Za’Darius Smith was released and their depth is questionable. Ezeiruaku feels like their type of guy – mature, consistent, technically proficient and productive at the college level. 29 – Washington Commanders – Omarion Hampton – Running Back, North Carolina A team with an exciting young Quarterback spending a first round pick on a running back isn’t necessarily something that meets with my approval, however, I think it is clear that Washington is determined to put the best possible collection of offensive talent around Jayden Daniels while he is on a rookie deal and Hampton is a big play threat in the way current starter Brian Robinson isn’t. 30 – Buffalo Bills – Kenneth Grant – Defensive Tackle, Michigan I think this pick will either be a defensive lineman or a corner. If Trey Amos was still on the board that might have been the direction to go in. But he isn’t and I think Kenneth Grant would be as perfect a compliment to Ed Oliver as you could find in the middle of the Bills defensive line, adept at both holding the point of attack in the run game and collapsing the pocket on passing downs. 31 – Kansas City Chiefs – Josh Conerly – Offensive Tackle, Oregon The Chiefs signed 49ers backup Jaylon Moore to a reasonable free agent contract with the intention of him starting at left tackle in 2025. However, it is only a two-year deal with an out after one year and I don’t feel it will stop them pursuing a legit left tackle prospect if one makes it to them at the end of round one. Conerly could be the long-term solution to a problem position for Kansas City. 32 – Philadelphia Eagles – Emeka Egbuka – Wide Receiver, Ohio State One might say that replacing Darius Slay at corner or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson at safety should be the priority with this pick. But the value just isn’t there are those positions in this spot and there is still a need for more playmakers at receiver alongside AJ Brown and Devonta Smith after the trade for Jahan Dotson was a predictable miss. Egbuka is a terrific route runner with inside/outside flex. As ever folks, FLAAAAMMMMEEEEE AWAAAAAAY!

I know it tongue in cheek. I do think Cole struggling so badly is why Hamlin was a full year starter though. I don't think that was ever the plan.