GunnerBill

2018 was a transitional year. The Bills middled 2017. They didn't go all in on a rebuild, they didn't go all in on winning. It worked out and McDermott coached his ass off that year. It was an odd and risky way to do it. But McDermott clearly wanted his buddy in situ as GM before he tied himself to a Quarterback. By 2019 they had to win and they did. He is as good as Stafford, right now. Peak Matt Stafford was a tier above peak Jared Goff. I know he had a good game Sunday, but Stafford isn't still that guy.

This shouldn't be at all controversial. By the GM's own admission they did a "horrible job" putting things around Allen in 2018.

I largely agree with this but where I do give Brian Daboll (and to be fair McDermott to an extent) some credit is they let Josh Allen fail without ever getting gun shy and I do think that was part of his development. The absolute worst thing you could with young Josh Allen was take the ball out of his hands (because if he got out of rhythm the bad habits crept back into his throwing motion) and Daboll and McDermott definitively did not do it. I'm not saying but for that Josh Allen would of been a failure, or anything of the sort, but can I imagine other coaches who would have turned him into a Shanny style game manager, heavy play action pass - don't worry about full scale reads, dial it all back? Yep, I can and I think it would have taken longer for Josh to reach full elite. You can be more balanced or even run heavy with Josh now, and it's fine. He can play literally any type of game you want him to play. But in 2019, 2020, 2021 not sure that was true.

The thing that I think is on Ben Johnson is the mess on defense. Dennis Allen was his pick and one area they definitely do have talent in is the defensive backfield. Though you'd be forgiven for not thinking so at the moment. That DC hire for an offensive minded first time Head Coach is a really important one. And so far it looks questionable. But I agree I don't think the results per se are on him at this point. Caleb actually looks really good when is on script, but as soon as the script is done the skittishness and the lack of field vision seems to return. That suggests to me that the bits Johnson can give him as a paint by numbers are working. It's after that it is problematic. And then no doubt that roster still has some big holes and that is on Poles. I said all draft season that they might have upgraded the IOL but you can't keep trotting Braxton Jones out as your starting left tackle and telling me you are serious about winning. He is the worst regular vet starting LT in football. But the off-field questions are the more concerning piece. His media management has to get better or else he will dig his own grave very quickly and other have alluded to personality concerns in his man management of players. I haven't heard that myself but if it is true that is a concern too. Maybe not 31.... but probably 24 or 25 would. He would be the fastest re-hire since, ironically, his mentor Andy Reid was let go by the Eagles after the 2012 season and he basically too a flight straight to Kansas City and took the job.

I don't even think he particularly needs weapons. He needs protection. That's absolutely your A1 priority if your QB is Jared Goff. Spend your dollars up front. He got a combined 1,000 yards from Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond two years ago. Goff is a good Quarterback. He is just way below average in terms of mobility at the position for the modern day.

Luckily there is no such thing as a jinx and nothing we say on this board makes the blindest bit of difference. I still think it's early to be thinking about which musical act would play before an AFCCG but the universe is not going to punish us if we do.

I didn't spot it but would have cringed if I had. I also didn't like the run inside the 5 where he could get out near sideline and while he does slow up enough to avoid a major hit he still gets a bump from the defender for the sake of an extra yard. If that's the AFCCG - sure, take bump. It's week 2 at the Jets up big, just get out of bounds untouched.

While that wildcard stat is interesting I think it is correlation rather than causation. The 5th to 7th best teams in a conference rarely go on to win the Superbowl not specifically because it is a tougher road but, IMO, because they are rarely better than the top 4 teams in the conference (I know there might be some years going back where the seeding was different but you take the point). I think that is likely the same for the Chiefs this year. If they limp in as a wildcard it probably means they are fundamentally flawed compared to some of the other teams. I mean they are 2-0 against Lamar in the playoffs and while the Ravens had plenty of offense last time, the first time the Bills shut them down. I get it that's 5 years ago, different personnel etc.

I am certainly not saying Johnson had nothing to do with what happened in Detroit and he actually wasn't OC during those struggles early on, our old mate Anthony Lynn was. Then Lynn was fired and Campbell called plays himself for a bit and steadied the ship before he handed over the reigns to Johnson. The thing I always admired about him as a play caller was how well he fitted his schem to his players. The first two years their passing game was incredibly simple, might even say limited. Their complexity was in the run game. Then as Jameson Williams broke out last year and gave them a viable running mate for St Brown and opened up the boundary to attack he added layers to the offense to maximise performance. The bit I push back slightly on (and I did at the time) was the idea of Goff as damaged goods. I never bought it then and I have never bought it since. Goff was not made by Sean McVay. He wasn't rescued by Ben Johnson either. Jared Goff is a good quarterback. He is one of the most accurate passers in football and throws with great touch and feel. The key to maximising Jared Goff is and always has been protection in front of him. By modern NFL QB standards he is a statue if pass rushers penetrate he is a stitting duck, a sack waiting to happen. But if he is protected he is and always has been a top 10 Quarterback. Bad with the disaster line his rookie year. In come Whitworth, Sullivan and others and suddenly Jared Goff looks really good. Then in 2020 Sullivan retires, Whit gets hurt and there is turmoil elsewhere on the line and suddenly Goff's form drops off and the Rams trade him. Gets to Detroit the line is a bit funky cos of injuries and Sewell being a rookie early and he doesn't look great but as soon as the line is sorted he immediately looks better. That is the truth to the Jared Goff story. It is just people like to spin the coach dependent narrative.

And yet the results Brady has had with less talent are comparable. I was a Daboll fan too, less so Dorsey. But if Daboll had this roster his offense wouldn't work. We don't have the pieces.

Yea the single most important ability a head coach needs is leadership. It matters more than Xs and Os. I think his media management is a red flag. But I haven't read / heard the locker room stuff. If that is bad too I think his chabces of being a success reduce significantly. No matter how good of a play caller her is. It is too early to say of course. And I think Poles and Caleb are partly responsible for the slow start in different ways. But as I said yesterday holding the team together if this season goes sideways will be a significant test for him.

My pushback is 1, 2 & 4 sound like the Dorsey offense. And that wasn't aggressive. It was just dumb.

Can you clarify what you mean by aggressive? Do you mean throwing lots? Or do you mean throwing down the field? Or do you mean attack a defence's weak spots? Cos I think the Bills are balanced run to pass in order to put the ball in the hands of their most explosive skill player, I think they have called deep shots and they are not there because guys can't get open deep and I think they do a pretty good job going after weaknesses. I don't see any of that as not being aggressive. Have had a couple of conservative play calls - sure. The 3rd down after the alert we just talked about they rushed to the line and tried a run which was odd, and the 3rd down on the first drive of the second half the other day when they ran and kicked a FG was unnecessarily conservative to my eye. But I think they are individual play calls rather than something that signifies an overall conservative offense.

Honestly, the scheming on offense has not been great. I thought it was poor Sunday night. Thornton has been getting some separation deep but just by running fast in a straight line. Looks a lot to me like defences (and tbf Chargers and Eagles have seen plenty of them) know what is coming and have generally had the chain movers smothered.

I think they will make the playoffs too. But I think there are issue and I think they extend to coaching. Especially on the offensive side where their guys just do not look well coached or coordinated right now. The offense is positively Dorseyish. If they limp in? Yea. I'll feel pretty good. As they are currently constituted they would not beat the Bills. Now if they suddenly get healthy (especially on offense) and run the 2nd half of the table and get in as a WC.... then sure, I'd be a little nervous.

I disagree. I don't think it was a conservative plan. I think it felt conservative because when they more aggressive plays were called Josh checked down. He was right to check down. Nobody was open deep. On the audible on 2nd and the reason I think it was a pass is because he alerts and then he points behind his back to Cook and "Omahas." Could that all be part of one call? Sure. But I'd need evidence that he has double signalled that way on other alerts. I think he alerted from a pass to a run and then flipped the run. Don't know for certain but that is my rationale.

Yep defender was there early and already hanging on his back before the ball arrived, but agree still catchable. I said that in the GDT.

He called downfield shots in that first half against the Ravens. They weren't there. Josh came off two and checked down and I still think he checked out of a pass on the 2nd and 1. That's part of the point.... I think what is driving the conservative narrative is the fact that the lack of separation means we don't actually go deep even when there are deeper shots called.

McAdoo (allegedly without ownership clearing) told Manning on the Monday "you are starting but at some point I will go to Geno" and Eli came in the next morning and said "that's not fair to Geno - if you want him to play let him play, I'd rather not start and then come out." When word got back to Mara he was fuming. McAdoo and the GM were fired right after the game.

McAdoo got fired as much for his contention that Eli was done and decision to bench him as anything else. Mara was very close to Eli and took badly to it. Turns out McAdoo wasn't a million miles off.

To this point there is a thread on Chiefs Plant at the moment called "Fire Matt Nagy into the Sun" followed by a debate as to where the blame lies between Nagy, Reid and Veach for their offensive woes.

I am away for work this week and in a hotel with not much to do before my diplomatic meetings this afternoon I watched the all22 from Sunday. All three tight ends blocked well, Kincaid has definitely improved his run blocking technique which is encouraging although he can still doesn't sustain or finish blocks as well as the other two and he had a rough pass blocking snap though a tough assignment against I think McDonald. Hawes blocked nicely in both the pass and run game and Knox was a beast in this game as a run blocker. Trust me he more than made up for not coming down with a couple of makeable catches with his performance as a blocker.

The receivers we have are legit NFL players (maybe Shavers still a tbc - but Keon, Palmer, Shakir, Moore, Samuel and the two main pass catching tight ends) but none of them are (at least yet) difference makers and so we still have snaps when we are forced into pure dropback where nobody can get open downfield unless Josh gets out and extends the play. The Bills are finding ways to coach and scheme around that and to mask it to a large extent - but I do still worry at some point it becomes a limitation.

I don't think we have the receiving talent to have Josh tossing it all over the field. I suppose that goes to the heart of the debate. Any limitations that exist in this offense are less about the scheme and the playcalling to my eye than they are about the skill position talent. It's also why despite generally being against paying running backs I saw the value in retaining Cook. He is by far our most explosive skill position player. I wish that weren't the case, but given that it is I think it's prudent to retain that.

There were some called week 1 (less so this week) and Josh had to come off them because nobody was open and go underneath.