GunnerBill

What gives you confidence VPG is any good?

I think Groot has had a decent season. It is just the Bills paid him like a player he is not. He is never going to be a big sack guy. He is a base end who plays the run and will have a big game as a pass rusher once or twice a year and otherwise he will get the odd clean up sack.

I wouldn't keep any of those defensive guys. I think Samuel will be cut. Knox will either be cut or take a massive paycut to stay with his buddy Josh. The actual tougher decisions are on the oline. At the start of the season I'd have said you have to keep McGovern but he has had a tough year. I saw someone the other day allude to him playing hurt, not sure if that is true but if it is that factors into the decision.

Yea the biggest difference to last year is the turnovers.

I do think Benford has started to come around. He had a very rough start to the year, through five weeks he was one of the worst outside corners in football. But he is playing pretty well now. Not quite hit his 2024 peak form yet, but he is playing better. I still have hope for that contract I think Benford is a really good player. I wasn't particularly a fan of the Bernard or Rousseau deals and while I understood Shakir and am fine with what we paid I am under no illusions about who and what he is. Well Ed Oliver and Hoecht are hurt and I made more effort from my Mexican sun lounger than Joey Bosa on Thursday. Once you take those guys out.... who do we have who rushes the passer well?

Some of us said after the Buccs..... this is about opposition nothing else. The Bills are happy to dial up deep shots. They took them against the Buccs because guys were open. Cos that was a bad secondary, especially with Dean out early. The Texans secondary is darn good. Their corners are excellent. I was one of the few who stood pat on Lassiter when everyone downgraded him for a bad combine. Dude can play. And Stingley is a stud.

The 2017 Bills draft is easily the best non-Josh Allen draft of my fandom. But Dawkins hasn't been an all pro. 4 x pro bowler and had all pro votes but never been a 1st or 2nd team all pro.

He did cap strategy I believe. I don't know that he was actually the spreadsheet and numbers guy. But maybe back in his football ops days he did.

Yes. Spreadsheets and numbers.

He does contracts and cap. He was Overdorf's deputy. Promoted a few years ago. As I understand it when Beane is negotiating with say, for example, Cook he will say to Megank "we want him, we think this is the number and here is our ceiling" then Megank will come back with options for how that can be structured and what each of those options mean for the cap down the road. Beane obviously signs off on everything.

It wasn't his main job but he was, as Assistant GM, overseeing the cap because Gettleman was a pure scout. But I don't think he was the "capologist" in the way Overdorf was for years. He was the cap strategy guy responsible for working with that department on how to manage things long term. Kevin Megank is now the Bills capologist. But he is only the numbers man. Beane is still the one setting the cap strategy

I don't see any of that as dysfunction personally - except probably for Beane's radio appearance. That, in isolation, I agree was a clown show. Benching Keon and criticising Elam isn't. It is just managing under performance. I think for the most part this regime has been professional, competent and buttoned up. It just hasn't been good enough in the big moments.

I don't think it is fair to call it a circus. They haven't been a clown show. They have been professional and methodical. It just hasn't worked and/or they haven't quite been good enough.

So the guy I speak to has only been on staff in the DaCosta regime. So I can't speak to Newsome but Newsome is a Belichick protege and he was famous for player specifications and the smallest draft board in the NFL.

That analogy isn't completely out of place. I see where you are going. The vibe has been off all season this year after a kind of slight overachievement in 2024 which has been odd.

Bosa "gutting it out" come on man. He rarely breaks into a jog. I'd have cut him today if I was in charge. His effort last night wad non existant

I have proof the other way. He does not influence individual picks. The positive in McDermott is he is a good football coach. Witness the improvement on 3rd down defense since he took over playcalling as yet another example. Sean McDermott can coach football better than most people on this planet. Do I see an immediate route to it getting better from here for this regime though? No I don't. And I genuinely don't see any benefit in saddling him with a new GM who he doesn't have chemistry with or vice versa Beane with a Head Coach. That never works and just delays the inevitable.

If you want to say, for example, that they spend too many resources on defense then that is broader strategy and both of them have their hands in the blood on that. If you want to say "Kaiir Elam was a bust" or on the flip side "James Cook is a stud" that is on Brandon Beane.

I am sure about it. I have spoken to two people who have worked in that building and been in the draft meetings and in the room. Neither are still in the organisation but both have confirmed to me absolutely that Brandon Beane runs personnel. The evaluations and the decisions are his. He and McDermott are aligned strategically but the evaluations and selections are Brandon Beane.

I promise you it is. I have a relationship with someone on the staff in Baltimore. He says their player specifications are absolute. They are interesting because they apply positional value far LESS than many teams. But their specifications on what a D end needs for their scheme, what a corner needs etc are gospel.

We UNQUESTIONABLY have a talent issue. There is a legit debate that then can take place about whether coaching is maximising what we DO have. And that is fair. But it starts with a talent issue.

Every team has player specifications for what their scheme needs the Bills are not unique on that. Indeed even the teams you probably think are more just draft the best player are probably the strictest on that specification - Ravens and Eagles for example . But I don't think it is ever "just get me a fast linebacker." And if it is then Beane failed with Terrel Bernard! Although to be fair to Beane he did take the best remaining linebacker on the board when he selected Bernard two rounds ahead of where most had him pegged. He is actually an example of a good draft choice (though I am less persuaded he is a good contract extension and said that at the time). They do value coverage ability at linebacker, they value length at edge and at corner, they value movement skills on the offensive line. But I don't think it is their player specifications that is hurting them with the exception that I think they do under value speed, generally across the roster. I think their positional value is the bigger issue. And that is on Beane. He drafts to the Gettleman / Hurney rules. And he tells us himself that is what he believes in. Defensive front 7 and Quarterbacks early, oline and running backs next, boundary players last. I know he has drafted two 1st round corners as well but that is only really cos he whiffed so badly on the first one. Elam, Hairston, Bishop and Taron are the only DBs he has taken in the first four rounds in SEVEN drafts.

Beane runs the draft. The overall strategy McDermott has a say in so if you want to argue too much on defense etc its legit to point to both of them. But Beane is 100% the one evaluating and selecting players.

I agree with speed. They lack it almost everywhere. Don't have a speed edge rusher. Don't have a fast receiver. They finally have some at corner with Max but he is still a bit up and down at the moment. They used to have speed at the second level that was the trade off for lacking size - if you threw short of the sticks to the flats Milano and Taron chased you down and tackled you. But the injuries have taken their toll on both. But fundamentally, even more than speed.... they just don't have enough talent.

I think it is the other way round. If they keep asking McDermott to coach a Beane built roster it won't get any better. But they are tied as far as I am concerned. One goes both go.