GunnerBill

Agreed.

I think that plan will fail. I just don't think he has the skillset to do it.

He was taken in the third. But yes. I think the unusual skillset and Arkansas' inability to always use it effectively played in.

I'd have gone up for BTJ. I am on record with that. I'd have gone up for Addison the year before too.

I said it up thread, but appreciate that it is a lot to wade through.... part of it is scheme fit. I think he has to play in a 4 man front that use bigger ends at the 5 and the 7. I think right now there are more 3-4 teams given the proliferation of Fangio copycat defenses knocking about and even among the 4-3s there are some teams - like Houston and Cleveland that run a lot more wide 9 concept stuff where you want your ends to be fast and bendy. In fact rather than me repeating it I've found the link to the earlier post:

Yea basically this. I don't have a view on Prather actually I haven't watched any of him. I will at some point over the summer try and find some tape but as of now, no view. But I do think there is a gap between the top 2 who we would have had to trade up slightly for cost us one of the 5ths and Lundt and the guys on @JGMcD2's list below them. I think @BillsVet actually summed up my frustration with receiver quite well when he said it just feels like there are some positions where Beane is always worrying about the pipeline - DL, DB, LB, OL, even running back. But it just feels like he is content to go year to year at receiver making tactical adds like Samuel and Palmer in FA rather than being a bit more strategic. The frustration isn't just that he didn't take one this draft. It has been building for four years when he has always seemed to find a reason to prioritise something else over keeping that pipeline of weapons for Josh well stocked (do you stock a pipeline? mixed metaphor maybe.... but you get the point )

All of this kind of proves my point though, it comes down to what you prioritise. Would a developmental receiver, likely our WR5 in 2025, play fewer snaps as a rookie than Hancock if he wins that job off Cam Lewis and a TE3 who is a blocker? Yep. But is that what we are prioritising? Which guy has the easiest path to snaps in 2025? Why are we not looking at these rookies as potential four year investments? I'm really only talking about the trade up guys - Horton and Lambert - developmental speed receiver who can play outside and the Bills had for a 30 visit. To get either of them the trade up would have meant giving up one of the 5ths (either Hancock or Hawes) and Lundt to trade up. One way of looking at it is your way and saying who plays most snaps in 2025? My approach might be more if all six guys we are talking about here: Hancock, Hawes, Lundt, Strong, Horton and Lambert are starting level players by the end of their rookie contracts which ones cost the money to pay? It's the receivers, then Strong and Lundt (if he stays at tackle). So if I have a chance to take a shot on getting one of those at a discount rate who makes the most sense to get - it's the receivers. Add to that - how much better are the Bills if Hancock is 25% better as a DIME and DB utility piece than Cam? How much better are they if Hawes is on the field instead of Anderson? Whereas how much better are they if a Horton or Lambert does outplay expectations and by their second year are a legit piece of the offense? I think unquestionably the last of those makes the biggest % difference in the Bills as a team. I like Lundt and Strong and while I watched less of Hancock and very little of Hawes I understand the fit for them. In isolation they all make sense. It is the opportunity cost that makes less sense to me when you pass on a developmental guy who could potentially in future years be a receiver that makes plays for you. I think Beane takes the wrong message from Khalil Shakir. It shouldn't be "great he hit I don't need to worry about shooting for developmental receivers much for the next few years." It should, in my opinion, be "great, day 3 is a place where you find less well rounded receivers but guys with specific skillsets that you can then fuse together and make work with Josh Allen."

Nah. They love Ed. His reps have gone up the last two years. And while he didn't play well for probably 2/3s of the regular season last year he was one of our best players down the stretch and in the post season. I don't see the young guys eating into his reps at all.

I thought he was an ordinary prospect, I'm sorry to say. I like this year's first three picks a LOT better than I liked last year's. Elijah Moore would give you that, and if Shakir can stay healthy give you some snaps outside too. I like that idea more the more I think about him.

This is the point. It isn't this draft in isolation. It's longer term prioritisation.

It opens up cap in that year, yes. But he'd have to be more than slightly underperforming to make it worth taking on that level of dead cap for a $2.5m saving, however you spread it across years for cap purposes. He'd have to be washed or a locker room issue. And I just don't see it.

When instead it could go on your 3rd tight end, 10th OL or 7th DB...... That is the point here. Not that they should have forced a receiver pick early. But that when they get to the bit of the draft where they are attacking roster needs development receiver is always bottom of the list.

Yea it isn't an impossible contract to get out of in 2026, but it's the sort of thing you only do if you think a guy is not good enough to be on the field anymore (normally coming off a serious injury) OR is a major locker room headache. If you look at the three times Beane has done it in the last few years it has been for Von (washed after a serious injury), Tre (not the same guy after a serious injury) and Diggs (locker room headache). Even if Ed has another meandering first half of the year, like he did in 2024, I'm not sure that is enough to make absorbing the dead cap when for another $2.5m he could play for you.

If a player is washed, yep. But to take that hit on a guy who is still playing at a good level when for an extra $2.5m he could still be on your team, I don't see it. 2027 is the earliest Ed will be playing anywhere else.

He is good at the deep over routes, yep, where he can run across the field. That just suits him much more. He didn't play much from the slot in 2024, although I think is telling that his slot snaps steadily ticked uo all year and the 3 games where he had double figures in snaps from the slot came in the last 4 weeks of the season. The Bills definitely had it in their minds as the season went along. But he did make multiple of his big plays from tight splits. Even he was still the "inside" it was getting him a bit tighter and throwing him slants and and in breaking routes to get him the ball in traffic over the middle. That is still where he is at his best. He is still the guy who runs the gauntlet really well. He will make some plays on the outside on vertical routes where he can box a defender out and come down with a contested ball but that is a hard way to live consistently in the NFL. And his contested catch percentage wasn't that high. But ever vertical ball will be contested because he is a non-separator. He is still a basketball player who plays to contact off the defender rather than a guy with the nuance, burst and short area quickness to separate either early in routes or through his break at the top of them.

Ugh. That would be really inconvenient for me.

Without a shadow of a doubt. Ed is here at least two more seasons. 2027 is when it becomes a conversation.

1. Yea. I very strongly disgaree. 2. I think that's fair on Palmer. 3. I am really not. My point about this draft is not there was a guy to transform us this year that Beane missed on. It is that the things he prioritised over and above a developmental vertical receiver on day 3 are indicitive of the urgency and priority he attaches to the position. Maybe none of the developmental guys in the class ever amount to anything. But Beane's two best receiver picks were day 3 developmental guys that did. And you miss every shot you don't take. There were intriguing developmental options there. The Bills had at least four of them in the building for visits. And they instead focused on TE3, and a Cam Lewis upgrade etc. 4. Of course the Bills are hard to defend. They have Josh freaking Allen. But there were teams who were able to do it. The Bills will be a top 5 scoring offense again. I have no doubt about that. But just saying that is good enough and not seeking out more talent for Josh is a mistake. If people are mad about this draft in isolation because we didn't get a receiver that's one thing. I think this is my favourite Beane draft since at least 2019 and has the potential to be his best since 2018. But I am worried about his approach to receiver. Not just in this draft. More generally. I don't think he does prioritise it sufficiently.

Move the needle immediately, for the Bills it was just Golden really and he went right at the point I'd have started to consider it value to go up for him. I think that slightly misses the point though. Beane and some people siding with him want to make out that those talking about receiver were desperate for one early. That is by and large not true. It is certainly not true of me - in the Landon Jackson thread I was very clear and receiver at any of those spots days 1 and 2 over the guys we took was a reach. But by Beane's own admission when you get into day, and especially rounds 5 on you start attacking needs on the roster rather than simply saying BPA. He talked about that AT LENGTH in his pre draft presser. And when it came to those needs he valued a TE3, competition for Cam Lewis, another outside corner (although he did say Strong was BPA and that is believable he was 6th best on my board at that stage) and a developmental tackle over a developmental receiver. It's that bit that some of us are questioning and it is playing in a narrative that definitely exists over 8 years of drafts that relative to the league Brandon doesn't prioritise the position.

The guys on WGR were making a similar point. I listened to the entire morning show yesterday. They said multiple times that they thought the Bills had a good first two days of the draft. Like many of us here they hoped for a developmental receiver with some speed early on day 3 and the fact we didn't draft one to the 7th was interesting. Their point was not we are doomed because we didn't draft a receiver this year. It was it feels like another draft where the Bills didn't make weapons for Josh a priority. Beane obviously did not hear the entire thing heard one snippet and came in hot ranting and raving. It was very unlike him. The talent has definitely dropped off as the 1st era defense phased out but Leslie Frazier has been a loss to the Bills. It is beyond doubt in my mind. Most of the board didn't like him. Most of the board was wrong.

I don't think Keon Coleman will be a successful outside NFL receiver. I didn't coming out. And he only reinforced my view in 2024. His best plays were invariably made when we got him in tight, got the ball into his hands and let him run after the catch. That is his skillset. I said 2 months before the Bills drafted him that his path to success in the NFL was a big slot. That is still my view. As for Josh Palmer, I like him. He probably is an upgrade on the corpse of Cooper's career but he is what he is. He will likely have a career year with Josh Allen throwing him the ball. But he is another complimentary receiver. They don't have that guy that dictates coverage and I don't think Palmer will instantly back teams of playing inside to out and creeping up into the box. If you are a DC gameplanning for the Bills your plan is take Cook away, stop Allen scrambling out to his right and clog the passing lanes in the middle of the field where they want to get Kincaid and Shakir. That is still the way I'd play us because I don't think we have a great counter.

Good mock but Beane took best player available. He wasn't against drafting a receiver but that long snapper was just a must have at the end of the first round.

Yea the first half of 2023 his defense was not too passive. It was too aggressive. I hated all the 3rd down blitzes.

All of this is exactly right. They played zone and didn't blitz. It was the 2021 regular season Leslie Frazier gameplan. Their corners are just more talented and played with more confidence to go and get it receiver's faces before bailing out. But you are also right KC just know Buffalo so well and vice versa.

Our 3rd down defense has to be better than last year. No question. Was only average in 2023 too. Basically been a problem since Leslie left.