BarleyNY

I guess you didn't read the article. The necessity of wisely using the growing quantity of data available was a central point.

That'd be par for the course for him.

That's the price you gotta pay to get to see the hot ones.

This is the whole situation in a nutshell. Well said, Bloke.

I haven't liked or agreed with almost everything BN has written on the Bills, but this is article is spot on. It's highly unlikely that Watkins is a Bill next season. Since 5th year options were instituted only one player has had his declined and still been with his team in his 5th season. It can happen, but it's not where the smart money is.

Yeah. I don't see how anyone rips DW for the Karlos pick. Day 3 is where you take shots on guys like him. Most don't make it, but some very nice finds can be made.

I thought Whaley was a mixed bag of more bad than good, but I wonder what things would be like if Hue Jackson had been the hire instead of Ryan. That would have included Schwartz staying. Hopefully it'll be worth it with McD and Beane.

Happy this guy's life is on a healthy track now. I have a friend who was closeted for a long time. He was from a very religious and conservative family in rural southern Ohio. The difference once he came out was amazing. He became so much happier and lives a good life now. PHRASING!!!

That's not to say that they're not going to try to win every game they play this season. But teams pushing for immediate wins are usually successful teams with a slew of expensive veterans and looming cap issues. Those teams are at the end of - or in the middle of - their window for a championship run, or at least a deep playoff run. They trade future draft capital for immediate impact and extend themselves with the cap (creating future issues) so they can afford to keep older key, expensive players. They also aggressively fill out their rosters with aging vets as short term fixes. The Bills have really done very little of that. They have largely done the opposite.

I'd like to add/clarify something at this point concerning the Bills direction this season. They're playing the long game this offseason. They're not trying to maximize wins in 2017. They aren't tanking either. They're trying to be competitive and still build longterm. It's what makes sense. They couldn't sell an obvious tank to the fans and due how many of the larger contracts are structured it wasn't even really possible. So they're filling some holes with long term free agents like Hyde while starting to get their cap in order. They acquired extra draft capital next season. They kept their best option at QB for 2017 at a reduced price, but also added two QBs - one each for backup and development. I expect them to give Peterman a look later in the season to see how that development is coming along. The Bills aren't going to the playoffs in 2017, but it could be the start of a successful longterm build. Theres no guarantees, but that's how successful teams do it and that's encouraging to me.

Just like the Wrex brothers.

Pretty much. At the very top of the draft you want players who have both produced at a high level and are very physically gifted. They are your elite playmakers. Next up are more moderately physically gifted players who have produced. Those are your solid starters. Then you have players who have big flaws or deficiencies in some areas, but are gifted in one or more. They are your role players. Lastly we have our developmental players. They're either highly physically gifted, but underdeveloped players or ones that have hit their physical limits already. No sense chasing many of the latter, so this is where I like to see gifted small school prospects who may not have gotten very good coaching taken. Sometimes you can find players from larger schools that have had their development delayed too. Poor coaching, coaching turnover, injuries, legal problems, etc. The bottom line on late round picks is that you might as well swing for the fences.

I disagree with a number of your points. - I don't see many around here calling for a 5 win season as you state. Most are expecting .500-ish. - The Bills DL should be a strength and so should most of their line. RT is a big sore spot though. Hopefully we've got a rookie who comes on strong and completes that unit. - I do agree that the defense should improve markedly due to McD and his scheme. It might take time for the players to get comfortable with it though. - The best teams are built around the QB. You can't leave that out of any equation. Strong lines and supporting talent is essential, but nothing in the NFL equals an elite QB. I'd guess the Bills record at 7-9 or 8-8. Sure, things could really come together in a hurry or something (injuries) could derail the season, but I have the center of their bell curve at that 7 to 8 win mark. Vegas has them at 6 wins. That's as unbiased as you get, so maybe I'm just a little optimistic. I have a tough time with an 11 win season. Even 9 or 10 wins would require a lot to break their way. You never know though. Sometimes things click and come together. One game at a time, one play at a time.

Seeing Cardale Jones cut wouldn't be the least bit surprising. The fact that fans don't even know how to spell his name points to that.

That'd be nice (okay, maybe not with NE). I'd love to see Kyle go out on top though.

How the f**k did you get that out of what I wrote? The Ryan's were a freaking train wreck. I have high hopes for McD & Co., but they're looking longterm, they aren't trying to maximize wins in 2017. I'm good with that, but I'm not going to pretend it's something it's not.

Other than the inclusion of the Bills as the 5th team, what other part of that article do you disagree with? The first part was spot on (including the Polian tanking stuff) and the first four teams on the list make a ton of sense. He probably picked the Bills as the fifth because the new regime kicked the can down the road this offseason. The Bills probably won't be top 5 bad, but they won't be above .500 good in 2017 either.

It's going to be tough to ever top that 76-77 Bucs team.

That's not how the cap works. Here are details:http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/charles-clay-7893/ Short story: 2017: cut pre 6/1, cap hit goes up from $9M to $13.5M 2018: cut pre 6/1, cap hit stays even at $9M 2019: cut pre 6/1, cap hit goes down from $9M to $4.5M It really doesn't pay to cut him before the end of his deal unless he can't be any help to the team. His salaries over the next 3 seasons are $4.5M each. He got a ton of up front cash and it's all a sunk cost now. Basically, as long as he's worth close to $4.5M a year, you keep him.

I don't know that they were worse than the 1999 expansion Browns team. If it wasn't for the gleeful return of the team there wouldn't have been much hope generated from that.

My exact thought too. He's expensive and at the end of his career. I could see him traded to a contender with a DT injury as well.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2717015-five-nfl-teams-already-in-contention-for-2018-no-1-overall-draft-pick Here is a link to the BR article that the linked one references. I've actually known Sobo (the BR writer) for over 10 years years. He knows football and he's a good guy. There's a reason he had the Bills 5th on the list of 5. Is anyone arguing with the other 4? As for a tank, I don't see a full one in process for the Bills. It's more of a slow roll here this season. There wasn't a full scale tear down and the team is looking to be competitive, but the moves made were all long term. With the contracts on the books a full scale teardown wasn't even possible. Even KW was kept. A player that old and in his last season certainly would be gone in a tank. But about that slow roll. I don't see how the 2017 Bills are going to be better than the 2016 Bills - and they certainly could be a little worse with the short term learning process of the scheme changes. This season is about establishing the system and finding out how our (young) existing players fit. The team should be competitive, but it'll likely lose more than it wins. It'll be worth it if they are in the right path.

Great, informative read. Thanks for posting.

Cool story. Kudos to TT and you both for doing some good in this world. Thanks for sharing.

True dat