BarleyNY

Just like the Wrex brothers.

Pretty much. At the very top of the draft you want players who have both produced at a high level and are very physically gifted. They are your elite playmakers. Next up are more moderately physically gifted players who have produced. Those are your solid starters. Then you have players who have big flaws or deficiencies in some areas, but are gifted in one or more. They are your role players. Lastly we have our developmental players. They're either highly physically gifted, but underdeveloped players or ones that have hit their physical limits already. No sense chasing many of the latter, so this is where I like to see gifted small school prospects who may not have gotten very good coaching taken. Sometimes you can find players from larger schools that have had their development delayed too. Poor coaching, coaching turnover, injuries, legal problems, etc. The bottom line on late round picks is that you might as well swing for the fences.

I disagree with a number of your points. - I don't see many around here calling for a 5 win season as you state. Most are expecting .500-ish. - The Bills DL should be a strength and so should most of their line. RT is a big sore spot though. Hopefully we've got a rookie who comes on strong and completes that unit. - I do agree that the defense should improve markedly due to McD and his scheme. It might take time for the players to get comfortable with it though. - The best teams are built around the QB. You can't leave that out of any equation. Strong lines and supporting talent is essential, but nothing in the NFL equals an elite QB. I'd guess the Bills record at 7-9 or 8-8. Sure, things could really come together in a hurry or something (injuries) could derail the season, but I have the center of their bell curve at that 7 to 8 win mark. Vegas has them at 6 wins. That's as unbiased as you get, so maybe I'm just a little optimistic. I have a tough time with an 11 win season. Even 9 or 10 wins would require a lot to break their way. You never know though. Sometimes things click and come together. One game at a time, one play at a time.

Seeing Cardale Jones cut wouldn't be the least bit surprising. The fact that fans don't even know how to spell his name points to that.

That'd be nice (okay, maybe not with NE). I'd love to see Kyle go out on top though.

How the f**k did you get that out of what I wrote? The Ryan's were a freaking train wreck. I have high hopes for McD & Co., but they're looking longterm, they aren't trying to maximize wins in 2017. I'm good with that, but I'm not going to pretend it's something it's not.

Other than the inclusion of the Bills as the 5th team, what other part of that article do you disagree with? The first part was spot on (including the Polian tanking stuff) and the first four teams on the list make a ton of sense. He probably picked the Bills as the fifth because the new regime kicked the can down the road this offseason. The Bills probably won't be top 5 bad, but they won't be above .500 good in 2017 either.

It's going to be tough to ever top that 76-77 Bucs team.

That's not how the cap works. Here are details:http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/charles-clay-7893/ Short story: 2017: cut pre 6/1, cap hit goes up from $9M to $13.5M 2018: cut pre 6/1, cap hit stays even at $9M 2019: cut pre 6/1, cap hit goes down from $9M to $4.5M It really doesn't pay to cut him before the end of his deal unless he can't be any help to the team. His salaries over the next 3 seasons are $4.5M each. He got a ton of up front cash and it's all a sunk cost now. Basically, as long as he's worth close to $4.5M a year, you keep him.

I don't know that they were worse than the 1999 expansion Browns team. If it wasn't for the gleeful return of the team there wouldn't have been much hope generated from that.

My exact thought too. He's expensive and at the end of his career. I could see him traded to a contender with a DT injury as well.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2717015-five-nfl-teams-already-in-contention-for-2018-no-1-overall-draft-pick Here is a link to the BR article that the linked one references. I've actually known Sobo (the BR writer) for over 10 years years. He knows football and he's a good guy. There's a reason he had the Bills 5th on the list of 5. Is anyone arguing with the other 4? As for a tank, I don't see a full one in process for the Bills. It's more of a slow roll here this season. There wasn't a full scale tear down and the team is looking to be competitive, but the moves made were all long term. With the contracts on the books a full scale teardown wasn't even possible. Even KW was kept. A player that old and in his last season certainly would be gone in a tank. But about that slow roll. I don't see how the 2017 Bills are going to be better than the 2016 Bills - and they certainly could be a little worse with the short term learning process of the scheme changes. This season is about establishing the system and finding out how our (young) existing players fit. The team should be competitive, but it'll likely lose more than it wins. It'll be worth it if they are in the right path.

Great, informative read. Thanks for posting.

Cool story. Kudos to TT and you both for doing some good in this world. Thanks for sharing.

True dat

How many times do we need to go over this?

A lucky .500ish team or two make the playoffs every season, but they don't have any chance to win it all. I want a chance at a championship. I'll certainly take an abysmal season if it gets us that. Sneaking into the playoffs and getting blown out in the first round doesn't excite me. I'd think so. I wonder why the lack of interest in him though? Is there something really wrong there?

A 4 win season and a FQB or another 8 win season? Who in their right mind takes the extra 4 meaningless wins if those are the choices?

Yeah, I was playing along. Goodell was more than happy to protect the shield and largely spare NE when it saved face for the league. Destroyed tapes anyone? The forfeiture of one late first round draft pick for multiple SB wins was a joke. He has looked the other way a lot when it has come to PEDs and cheating. He doesn't like pushback or defiance though. That'd be evident with Deflategate and Bountygate. He quietly told the Saints to shut down their bounties when they first came to light and only nailed them after they defied him. He cut Josh Gordon some slack until he lied to him, then it was over. No more mercy.

A whole lot is getting made of the Bills being top 10 in scoring offense so I'd like to explore that a little more. They were tied with Pittsburgh (generally considered an excellent offensive team) for 10th at 24.9 ppg. That's top 11 and very respectable. One more FG a game and we'd have been top 3, just ahead of NE. One FG less a game and we'd have been 20th overall, a little below average. So that's the range we are in. A little improvement would vault us into the top of the league, but a little drop off would send us back to average. We were also tied for 16th in defensive scoring at 23.6 ppg, exactly average. Improve by a FG a game and we'd move up to 12th. Give up an extra FG a game and we'd be at 29th! Yikes! Looking back on the O and D run and pass rankings (see my previous post) it tells us a lot about the Bills. We were an elite rushing team with excellent pass defense, but terrible run defense and poor passing game. The first thing that sticks out to me is that, wow, we can't fall off at all on defense. That'd be catastrophic. An improvement is obviously needed and I do expect it based solely on us running a competent scheme this season. But it'll take a big improvement (3.6 ppg) to get into the top 5. We were there before Wrex, so maybe we can get back - or at least close. As many have noted, the scoring defense needs to improve. Statistically that looks like it's all run defense, but one could argue that other teams ran on us a lot because they were ahead late in the game. Regardless, our run defense sucked. The second thing, as I noted before, is that the pass game has to improve. Our run game is so far ahead of everyone else that we really can't improve it. 8 of the other top 11 ranked offenses made the post season. There are times that we will need to pass to win and we haven't been able to do that. That has to change too.

They are, of course, exempt.

One huge reason bubble screens work so much better in college than in the NFL is that he NCAA allows blocking downfield prior to the pass if the ball is caught behind the LOS. The NFL obviously doesn't allow that as it'd be a pick.

That is not correct at all. Here are the facts: Offensive rankings: - 10th overall in ppg - 16th overall in ypg - 1st in rushing ypg - 30th in passing ypg Defensive rankings: - 16th overall in ppg - 19th overall in ypg - 29th in rushing against ypg - 6th in passing against ypg The team couldn't pass or stop the run. BOTH were huge issues. The worst was that late in games we couldn't pass to score or stop the run and get the ball back. And don't give me the "we're a run first offense" crap. If we could've been effective passing the ball, then we'd have done it a lot more.

"You must be 50! I specifically requested a cabana BOY!" BOOM! Really, who can blame him?

That's always a plus.