BarleyNY

ELO is heavily weighted toward recent performance, specifically the last 10 games. It shows that Allen has performed better of late (which also passes the eye test). That’s the important take away here. Well, that and that Brady’s performance is finally falling off.

Seems like that’s a good reason to start betting football

Yup. There have been a few teams trying to get their most expensive players under extensions before the new CBA hits and the cap takes a big jump up. Both the CBA and White’s rookie deal expire after the 2020 season. White’s option year is 2021. Normally I would think that a long term deal would get done after 2020, but there’s a chance that an extension gets done early due to that situation. White would get a very large chunk of cash sooner than usual and the Bills would save a few bucks overall. It’d be a good deal for both sides and could happen as early March 2020 when White’s third season is officially complete, though a deal could be agreed to prior to that.

I think you’re right that he will get paid more than he’s worth to us in free agency. Edited to add: That’s not to say that he isn’t worth a nice contract, just that he plays a premium position and I expect some team to get stupid. Shaq has developed into the player that I thought he’d be when he was drafted though. He’s a very good DE. He sets the edge and plays the run well. He can add a few sacks too, but that’s not his forte. The expectations from a lot of fans were for a Mario-in-his-prime kind of player. That was never going to be Lawson. He’s not going to be a double digit sack guy. He can be a very nice, productive piece to a defense as long as he’s not the guy they’re relying on to consistently pressure the QB.

I’d like them both re-signed, but it always comes down to the contract. If they hit free agency and another team is going to overpay, then you gotta move on to other options. That said, I wonder if either would be interested in something now?

Like I’d have it any other way

Please do not flex it. I have tickets and do not want to have to stay overnight on Sunday.

Agree. If we need a minimum of 3 wins in our last 6 games, this is one we need. That’s based on it being one of the 3 easier games (relatively speaking). If we drop it, then we have to pick up a W against a tougher team. The Pittsburgh game is really important. They’ve got a relatively easy schedule and a loss to us could potentially knock them out on record or tiebreaker.

Usually I’d like to see the Bills out the ball through the end zone on kick offs, but they should consider the situation and keep return teams honest.

Question on the charts (thanks for posting them btw). Green is a completion, White is incomplete and red is an interception, but what do the blue streaks mean?

Good for Allen. I am a bit surprised because I expected Jackson to get it after that game against Houston. Similar overall numbers (so it was deserved), but I didn’t expect Buffalo/Allen to get love from the national media over Baltimore/Jackson.

I agree on running Josh more. It’s a necessary risk to achieve team success. Agree on him needing to work on his play fake as well as ball security though.

Austin Pasztor has started in this league. I remember him with the Browns. He isn’t good or anything, but he does have some experience.

I am sure they’ll be chipping with RBs and TEs all day

Gotta disagree with the Miami defense characterization. Using DVOA, Miami has the 32nd ranked pass defense, doing a whopping 42.3% worse job than what would be expected from the league average pass defense this season. They’re also ranked 32nd overall and 29th against the rush. We beat a bad team with a putrid pass defense and Allen help us win that game. That’s what was supposed to happen. Good. But that game isn’t going to define Allen. Let’s see what he’s got this week. I’m sure there will be plenty to argue about regardless of the outcome. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

He sure does. He could get away with that if he was a fast third down back, but it’ll be a real problem for him as a bigger, slower (relatively) power back in the NFL. He won’t have an OL that’s blowing huge holes open for him in the NFL either. He is patient and shows nice balance and change of direction so he has a place in the NFL, but it’ll be as a rotational RB. He’ll be available later on day 3 unless a team reaches.

Allen did a very nice job today. Anyone who isn’t yet sold on him isn’t going to be swayed by a win over a terrible Miami team though. But they should acknowledge that he did what he needed to do to get the win today. That’s not nothing. Now let’s all (believers and non-believers Alike) hope he keeps it up. If he does, then he’ll change some minds.

Solid effort and nice win. We really needed this one. Now we gotta keep rolling as the opponents get tougher.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-thought-nfl-kickers-would-keep-getting-better-but-this-year-theyre-struggling/ “For decades, NFL placekickers have been on a seemingly never-ending quest for perfection. Conversion rates increased relentlessly each year like numbers on the National Debt Clock. But a funny thing happened on the road to forever. The field-goal success rate this season is at its lowest level since 2003. And the decline of 4.2 percentage points to 80.5 percent from 2018 to 2019 is the greatest year-to-year drop in efficiency since that from 1975 to 1976, dinosaur days when square-toed kickers still roamed.”

You might enjoy this analysis https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/for-a-passing-league-the-nfl-still-doesnt-pass-enough/amp/

I think those are two very different situations. One player is pissed because he sees the fine he got as excessive even though he acted in a way that he knew could lead to said fine. Whatevs. The other guy had his team (the Jest) falsify his medical documents in order to trick him into getting back on the field despite the fact that doing so would jeopardize his health and career. You can see the pull the NFL has with the media. That should’ve been a major story.

Yup. Honestly it’s smart to see who he is right now. Not so much to sign him, but to scout him. He could wind up somewhere and get in a game. Does anyone think BB wouldn’t want to know who’s lining up against him? Do your due diligence.

Draft picks have a lot to do with the salary cap. It’s idiotic to look at something like the salary cap in a vacuum, but you are welcome to do that if you want. It’s meaningless in that context, but knock yourself out. Meanwhile I’m here for reasonable discussions for those who are interested.

That’s weak af. Seriously this has gone off the rails. Those picks would be used on players that would be on 3 rookie deals and could replace veterans making veteran salaries. There’s actually a calculation for what picks are worth in cap dollars. Or maybe we could just consider the extra wins three more quality players could lead us to. Wow.

I am done here. This is just too dumb to even respond to and I only got halfway through it. Have a good night.