Kirby Jackson

I think that the truth is somewhere in between. As an example of the Bills offer their 2025 1st and their own 2025 2nd teams probably expect picks at like 28 and 60 (or whatever). If the Bills trade their 2025 1st and the Vikings 2025 2nd teams probably expect the picks to be like picks 28 and pick 43.

My buddy just texted me back. He works in a ticket office in the NFL. He said that he was at a meeting in January where they said that the participating teams get 4K-5K tickets. One of the last times his team was in the Super Bowl they had 11k so that’s way down. As a non participating team they have been getting about 650 tickets. So that math would say that roughly 30k tickets go to the teams.

Super Bowl tickets have always been a lottery system. It was always based on seniority. My guess is it is a combination of seniority and spend but don’t know the exact formula. It’ll be weighted somehow but not sure exactly how. I don’t know if it’s common knowledge but each team gets a substantial allotment of Super Bowl tickets whether they are in the game or not. I don’t remember the specifics but pretty sure that it’s at least 1,000. I reached out to a friend to confirm that number and will update once he responds. If you do the math though & 30 teams not participating account for 30k tickets, the league & it’s sponsors must be another 5k-10k. That leaves roughly 20k per participating team. By the time you address the internal needs / sponsors they probably have 15k seats available for a lottery of season ticket holders.

I guess that I’m bullish on Samuel because I’ve seen so much of him. I saw every snap that he played at Ohio State. I’m a big fan of the player. He is still a converted RB, best with the ball in his hands. He isn’t a great route runner. He isn’t a pure deep guy. He’s a guy that will run some routes, catch screen, flares and get some carries. He’s a rich man’s McKenzie. If people are relying on his threat on the boundary to keep defenses honest, that’s not who he is.

If we are going to “look at things that are similar” why is the Watkins deal more relevant than Julio? The Falcons were 13-3 the previous year with a franchise QB. They made a similar move in terms of how far that they came up. That’s way closer to this situation.

Random things that didn’t work a decade ago, with different regimes, aren’t relevant. I promise you Sammy Watkins is not a part of the Bills decision making. There is no correlation. Julio is a better comparison and even that has no correlation. They will draft based on the quality of the players not a 2014 draft gamble. As @dave mcbride points out, the data and analytics today are light years beyond what they were even a decade ago. The draft bust rate would speak to that too. Teams hit at a much higher percentage in 2024 than they did even in 2014.

Yep The draft is an inexact science. Recent early WRs have been good (Chase, Wilson, Olave, Flowers, Addison, etc..). The top 3 guys in this draft have graded out as high or higher than any WR in the previous 2 drafts. There is no sure thing but not everyone has the same likelihood to succeed either.

Um, it’s a different world than 10 years ago. The Bills have a franchise QB. The cost for a high end WR is roughly double the cap space that it was a decade ago. There are LOTS of logical reasons to go way up. Sammy Watkins not working out 10 years ago isn’t even a data point that the Bills are considering when deciding what to do. There is no correlation between him not working out and the 2024 Bills draft. Julio Jones is a better example because the Falcons had a high end starter and wanted to get him a star. That’s infinitely more relevant to this conversation but still isn’t a factor in the Bills decision making process. Secondly, the college game changed the pro game not the other way around. NFL spread offenses designed to get the ball to playmakers in space are just copies of college offenses. Receivers translate easily and for those of us that watch a lot of college football, those guys are easily identifiable. Does someone really believe that the WR that the Bills draft will not be their number 1 immediately?? 😂😂 Is that for real? The Bills have a solid slot WR with good production on low volume. They have a gadget guy that is good with the ball in his hands. If we do not understand that the draft pick walks off the bus as the alpha in the WR room we do not understand the current WR room. I wonder how many people still get this reference?

With the 18th pick the Cincinnati Bengals select JC Latham, OL, Alabama. LA Rams @MrEpsYtown is on the clock. The Bengals targeted either an OL or Byron Murphy here. Once he was off the board, the Bengals shifted their focus to an elite offensive lineman. They are thrilled to get the guy that they have ranked as the draft’s top OL. He will start at OG as a rookie and transition to OT by year 2. He has all-pro upside at RT. We know the need to protect Joe Burrow and the value was too good to pass up.

I think that the cost controlled IS the reason that a 2nd number 1 comes into play. The top WRs now account for like 12% of the cap (by the time Aiyuk, Higgins & Jefferson sign). It’s the 2nd most important position on the team (or at least right there with pass rusher). Top QBs, which we have, account for like 20% of the cap. It simply isn’t very easy to have both. You spend the draft capital on WR to free up cap space to spend on other areas. As an example, you could use 2 firsts and 2 seconds to move up for a number 1 WR. I’m not saying that you do or don’t do this. This is a hypothetical to illustrate my point. By using that capital to get the number 1 WR you save the $30M annually that it would cost to sign someone like that. You can then spend $8M on S, $12M on a pass rusher, $4M on a CB, $4M on a RB & $2M on a DT. So while you do not have as many picks to get those positions you can buy them instead. You’ll need to have cost controlled assets somewhere and in this example it is at WR. The point being that there are multiple ways to build a roster and decisions can’t be made in a vacuum because they are all intertwined. So while the cost to go way up, limits the high end swings you can take over the next few drafts, it also frees the balance sheet to be more aggressive in FA. Now obviously, if you can find elite talent without having to go up that’s even better. There’s a reason though that some prospects are universally ranked above others. If you go up you’re paying for that prospect’s ceiling and floor.

Can we make an agreement that we won’t compare whatever happens Thursday to trading up for a WR a decade ago? In case people haven’t realized, the world is much different now. The Bills are Super Bowl contenders with a top 2 QB and missing WR1 & WR2. Additionally, a top end WR used to account for like 7% of the cap. Now it is almost double that. When you have an elite QB, you are really in a tough spot if you have to pay WR too.

MHJ I’ve heard that they love Nabers from a reliable source. I just can’t wrap my head around passing on MHJ. His ceiling is the best WR in football and a HOF career. His floor is pro bowl WR IMO. If you’re spending that kind of draft capital you want both the high ceiling and high floor.

6 is probably the “floor” of where they can go as of now. They could be working contingent deals though with the Titans, Falcons and Bears. I’d imagine that the Bills are calling 4 through 9.

The question isn’t whether or not the Bills are trying to get up for one of the big 3. That answer is unequivocally yes. That’s obvious. The question is, “can they make a deal that’ll work?” That’s the only question.

He’s one of my favorite prospects!! I like Pearsall a lot too.

Congrats!! Those look nice!! It’ll be worth the wait.

I think that’s still a bit aggressive but if they added something like Odunze & Odell they could be top 10ish. I would really like the WR depth but they’d still be a little underwhelming at the top. I feel like it’s a good start though. IMO, the Bills have a couple of strong slot / move guys in Shakir and Samuel. I don’t think either is an elite boundary guy. Having a star though, on a rookie deal, opens up a whole bunch of options moving forward.

It won’t be cheap but, realistically, something like 28, 60, 144, ‘25 1st & ‘25 2nd (preferably ours) would seem like enough. The Bills could still use those 4ths, 5ths, etc… to fill out the depth on the DL & secondary. They’d still have an early 2nd next year (at least in theory).

I’ve had this weird feeling that they were going into the top 10 for a while. I thought that when Diggs was here. If I thought it then, I can’t change now that the need is greater. I can’t shake Beane press conference when he talked about how “he would love a Ja’marr Chase but hopes to never finish bad enough to draft one.” To me, I think that he looks at it as, “swing big on a star WR” and avoid paying that giant bill for 5 years. You can allocate that savings, moving forward to pass rush or whatever. The rising cost of elite receivers makes this the right time to swing big.

This is a tough question for me. I’d love to answer “both.” Legette has the higher ceiling IMO. McConkey certainly has the higher floor. I think McConkey will be better in 2024 because he’s more refined at this point. The answer is that you actually need BOTH of those skill sets still on this team. If forced to choose, I’ll say Legette because what he has is harder to teach. I can find a guy a little later, albeit smaller, but that also separates in Jacob Cowing. I think that it’s easier to find good footwork than it is to find that size/speed combination.

At this rate we should have it completed by the 2025 draft. It Is Daniels or Maye right? I haven’t read a single article suggesting that the Commanders are open for business. Is this new? I’ve seen the Pats and Cardinals out there (potentially Chargers & Giants too). Am I missing something?

Don’t bother. I engaged on this with that person in another thread. It’s either a troll or a 7 year old. Either way, logic (no pun intended) isn’t going to resonate.

Bengals Saints Broncos (or whoever is left over) Thank you again @Virgil

😂😂