eball

LOL. They know who they are.

Actually, guys, the math says the estimated change in win probability in this situation (down 9) is roughly the same whether you go for one or two, so it really is a matter of psychology and determining whether you want to risk it still being a two-score game at that point in time. in such a situation it’s a gut feel for the coach, and to me the smart move is to kick the point so you know it’s a one-score game.

Really nice write up, and so glad to see someone finally acknowledge the biased analysis Josh receives as opposed to other QBs. That is what has been so frustrating, even as Josh played inconsistently over his first two seasons. Confirmation bias is real, and I’m glad it is being exposed. A number of posters on this forum would show signs of maturity and growth by recognizing it as well.

No contract extension discussions will take place until after the 2020 season at the earliest, IMO. More importantly, I fully believe Josh is the type of player who will not insist upon a “highest paid” deal and will do what is necessary to allow the Bills to continue to keep a good team around him, similar to how Mahomes took less than he could have. We are so freaking lucky to have gotten the type of player and human being Josh is. Team first all the way.

So do you really believe those 15 points “mattered?” Or are you just spewing nonsense?

It’s really fun, and a bit surreal, to open up a column on the LA Rams website previewing this week’s game and read this: The Rams' secondary will have to be sharp against the NFL's leading passer

Absolutely, he’s the clubhouse leader in our 2021 Whipping Boy Pool.

Wow, 49% of snaps in that heat? That speaks very well to Harry’s fitness and rehab. Hope as he is getting back in the swing of things we start to see some more “splash” plays.

I’m just waiting for all of the Pats*** apologists hiding in plain sight on this board to come out and say how Peyton just wasn’t good enough to beat Brady and all of this is sour grapes because everyone is so envious of their success. You know they’re thinking it. Bill Belichick is one of the greatest coaches of all time, there’s no doubt, but his relentless pursuit of success crosses the line and tarnishes what he could have accomplished playing by the rules. Brady is just a very good QB who got put into the best possible position. If he wins it all in Tampa I’ll give him credit, but I don’t think he will.

Mike McCarthy has made two HORRIBLE in-game decisions in successive weeks and only Atlanta’s ineptness on an onside kick has prevented the Cowboys from being 0-2. I’m starting to remember the Green Bay fans’ complaints about him...

The Jests are the new Browns. Re: Darnold -- I don't dislike him, but I also don't think he has the "want to" that Josh has. I think he could be a very good QB in the right organization but at this point I can't imagine swapping him for Allen.

More encouraging is that he is using them. Eight different receivers in each of the first two games. Take away one, he'll go to another.

BBFS is a powerful force. Do not succumb to the dark side.

Yes, it is. And these are not young guys; they are veterans who know what winning looks like.

Mack Brown keeps texting Beane, telling him "really, Antonio is worth another look."

Which I did not do. I've slammed those who have held on to their pre-draft notions despite actual NFL evidence to the contrary.

PFF is awesome!

OF COURSE there was risk. Nobody is suggesting otherwise. The point is that for every negative brought up, one could pretty easily see an explanation. Bad footwork? Nobody showed him how to do it. Game processing? Not enough reps. He only really played for two seasons at Wyoming. Yes, he had coaches, but nobody can convince me he received good coaching in college. Anyway, it's all water under the bridge now. And yes, Kiper can rightfully claim he was on the Josh Allen bandwagon. It may wind up being the biggest feather in his cap ever.

Love it!

I'm not critiquing their model for potentially "missing" on Josh Allen...I'm not even singling out FO. I think it's great they came out with a statement that recognized their model may have been way off with Josh. My point, I think, is that there are so many people who don't know a damn thing about analytics who took these pre-draft projections as gospel and keep hanging onto them as if the worst thing in the world is to accept that sometimes people break the mold. I saw a fantasy football guy on Twitter "critiquing" Josh's game against Miami because he threw a couple of "almost interceptions." That schitt doesn't happen to any other QB who has a game like that. Analytics are great; what's better is when they're not viewed as the be-all-end-all. I admit when I'm wrong all the time; just ask my wife. It's not a weakness. There were signs that Josh didn't "fit" into a typical analytics model. Most missed them.

You are proving my point. Nobody bothered to go beyond that to see if there are circumstances beyond the stats to explain things one way or the other. Now, admittedly, that process could be exhaustive if they did it for every prospect, but even a cursory look at Allen's background would have revealed a kid who was a "late bloomer" and didn't grow up playing QB. Who didn't know he had to send tapes to schools to get a look? This was an easy one. My arguments over the past two years have not been "black and white" -- they've looked for those exact nuances you are discussing. Your condescending tone attempting to paint me as a simpleton is misplaced.

You know what I saw? Watch the replay from the end zone of the TD to Davis. I did not realize how GREAT of a throw that was. Dare I say, “elite.”

2017 and 2018 don’t mean a hill of beans at this point. Last season the Bills gave themselves a chance in every game except one (Philly). Yes, I’m hoping they finish the job more frequently starting this week.

Shh...Daboll doesn’t have a clue and is a terrible OC. That’s what I’ve heard repeatedly around here.

I have a question: what teams don’t struggle to beat good teams? I mean, if you don’t struggle to beat good teams you should be 16-0, right? The point being, as long as the Bills are putting themselves in a position to win against every opponent the “struggle to beat good teams” thing sounds pretty silly. The next step is to get over the hump against “good teams” more often than not.