2003Contenders

Interesting that you bring up the Cam Newton offense from 2015 -- McD was there to watch as Newton fell off the cliff the following year and observe what an accumulation of punishment can do the body. He is clearly mindful of that as it relates to Josh, and constant reminders from him about not overworking Josh as a ball carrier are likely part of what he meant by being involved in some of the offensive play calling. It is also clear that he wants to run the ball more. McD has been very vocal about that, and he is right that a quality running game would do wonders for this team. That is true in terms of opening things up for Josh and the play-action pass as well as being able to control the football in less than ideal weather conditions. When he was here Daboll rarely seemed interested in trying to genuinely institute a running game -- and when he did, it often seemed forced. Almost like he was flipping McD the bird and saying, "You want to run the ball more? I'll show you..." The problem is that -- especially as we saw against the Bengals Sunday night -- the Bills don't have the personnel to consistently run the ball against a quality defense.

It also looks like Diggs is wide open at the bottom of the screen.

I definitely think the book is out on the defense. The screen game had been a BIG problem for the Bills really since the Jacksonville game, so the Bengals abused that by FAKING screens and going to wide open TEs. Speaking of Jacksonville that game is really the deliminator between when the Bills were a top 5 defense -- and when they became bottom 5. Obviously injuries are a big reason for that as Tre went down late in the previous game, and Jones/Milano both went down early against Jacksonville. I also do not think that the return of Von Miller (who was activated for Jacksonville) and the defense's struggles are coincidental. Miller has been useless since coming back this year. In fact, going back to last season, recall that the Bills were undefeated in the regular season after Thanksgiving when he went down. In fact, the only regular season game they lost with Miller out of the lineup was the opener this week against the Jets -- and that game was lost because of Josh NOT the defense. Worse, the defense has been awful at the worst times this season. They remind me of a terrible pitcher, who gives up big runs immediately after his offense has produced runs in the previous inning. Not exonerating the offense by any stretch of the imagination -- but in every one of the last 3 losses the team had a chance to win the game late with a stop by the defense. They failed. (Not to beat a dead horse, but it was Von Miller most recently who whiffed on a tackle against Joe Mixon that likely would have led to the Bengals punting and the Bills getting the ball back with a chance to win it.) Even in the 2 wins during that stretch, the defense ALMOST blew it at the end against both the Giants and Bucs. With all of the injuries we are missing clutch guys that make that big play -- be it a sack or a turnover -- at critical times late in the game. Remember the glory years when Bruce Smith or Cornelius Bennett would make one of those plays -- sometimes in a game that the Bills had no business winning? It seems forever ago that we were getting all those sacks against Howell and the Redskins. Yes, that was prior to all the injuries -- but where has the pass rush gone? Earlier in the year we were getting pressure just rushing 4. Now we can't even get to the QB with 5 or 6. Yes, Jones is missed -- but the rest of the line (especially the pass rush specialists) have been mostly healthy. It would certainly help if the (again, mostly healthy) offense would put together a consistent four quarters of football, which they have not done since Miami. I mean, it really does not matter how much the defense is struggling if the offense scores at will, right?

Now that he is a veteran in the league, I am not sure that ANY potential OC would have that same sort of relationship with him that Daboll had. Remember, Daboll was with him from the very beginning and exerted that "tough love" that went beyond just a mentor-student relationship. I suppose if a seasoned veteran with accolades/rings were to come in then the credibility would exist in such a way that a similar relationship could evolve. Not sure who would fit that bill.

Also, it's not that the Cinci defense adjusted to what the Bills did on that first drive. Rather, the Bills' offense STOPPED doing what was successful for them on that first drive. That is, they got away from the quick-hitting, short and intermediate passing game and started trying to take deep shots, which took too long to develop and were much more low percentage.

Excellent post. And I would bet that in most of the down-year situations that these teams had, there was an underlying reason why the team struggled. Injuries, new/rookie player(s) in key positions, etc. If you told me after the Jags game that the season was over due to all the injuries on defense -- and that the team was destined to lose a lot of 38-35 type games -- I would not have been happy but would have understood. The part that is so discouraging is that it is the offense, which has been mostly healthy, that has not been living up to its end of the bargain. Even against bad teams like the Giants and Pats.

Yes, the Bills DL did a very nice job containing White and the Bucs' rushing attack (which is admittedly poor to begin with). Where they struggled against White (and other teams' RBs as well) is in the screen pass game.

That is true. Also, there is a reason why Purdy was the last player selected in the 2022 draft. He has operated in Shanahan's offense brilliantly, but his physical talent is somewhat limited. There is now ample film is out on him and defenses are beginning to figure him out.

While I agree with you, it appears that the coaching staff is worried about Josh's health (especially with the nagging shoulder) and reluctant to run this play as often as we would like.

Yep. Murray looked like the veteran between-the-tackles back we needed to compliment Cook earlier in the year, but as the season has gone on, it is becoming more and more apparent that he just doesn't have the juice to get through the rest of the season in a role that had become bigger with the loss of Harris.

This one is a hard one for me to pick. Yes, the Bills and Bengals matched up twice last season. However, there is little to take away from either game. In the Week 17 match-up last season, the game was cancelled in the 1st quarter after Hamlin's horrific injury. Up until that point neither defense seemed capable of stopping the opposing offense. Might that have resulted in a shootout over the course of a full game? Or, would one side or the other have adjusted? In the playoffs, that is one of those games that I think from an evaluation point you simply burn the film. The Bills were clearly gassed heading into that game -- and many of the players afterwards admitted as much. Last season was a grind given all the drama on so many fronts, and it just felt like everything came crashing down that weekend. Yes, the Bengals clearly dominated that game, but they also had all of the energy. I guess what I am saying is that it is hard to predict what will happen based on those two games from last year. It is true that our defense seemed incapable of stopping their offense in either game -- but the sample size is small and perhaps a bit deceiving. Also, the defensive game plan -- allowing 10-yard cushions against their receivers with Burrow getting rid of the ball quickly was a recipe for disaster. Of course, with Frazier gone now perhaps McD will be more aggressive. Hopefully he does not employ last year's game plan!

Considering that we control our own destiny against both teams (maintain pace with them and beat them head-to-head), it is hard to pick which one to root for. I guess the Chiefs since the division is on the line with Miami -- and Miami has not shown that they can beat good teams. No sense giving them confidence that they can.

I think the Bills need to approach this game like they did the Miami game. Namely, it is imperative that the offense executes -- and scores on each possession in order to keep up with the Bengals.

Pete Rozelle's dream of parity across the NFL is here. Literally any one of several teams could represent the AFC in the Super Bowl as they all have chinks in their armor: -- Bills are inconsistent and the defense is banged up at every position -- Aside from Mahomes/Kelce, the KC offense is not especially talented -- Miami reminds me of the 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars -- went 14-2 and had the #1 seed in the playoffs that year but only played one quality opponent all year (Tennessee twice) and got bounced their first game in the playoffs (by Tennessee). -- Lamar has all-world upside -- but hard to trust him to play that way for more than 2-3 games in a row. -- Like last year, Cinci, struggled early on (especially on offense) largely due to injuries. They appear to have righted their ship (just in time to play the Bills). -- Cleveland's defense is legitimate -- but without a reliable/healthy QB, not sure how far they will go. Same with the Jets. -- Pittsburgh's record is a bit of a mirage. They have won a couple of games they had no business winning thanks to fluke plays. Also, the offense does not seem capable of scoring more than 20 points on a weekly basis. -- Jacksonville has the advantage of playing in such a weak division -- although they have not exactly cleaned up in that division so far this year. Defense is underrated and their running game is legit. T. Lawrence still hasn't shown that he is elite, however.

You are right that many fans were upset about the decision to go defense there -- especially after having gone back-to-back 1st/2nd round picks the year before with Groot and Boogie. I think what especially hurt was that with the injury to Tre (and knowing that he was likely to also miss much of the 2022 season as well) EVERYONE knew that the Bills were in the market for a CB. This is the perfect example of why you do not draft exclusively for need. To make matters worse, while it may have been a positional need, clearly Elam was not a great fit for what McD wants in his corners. This may have been the classic example of a coaching staff believing that they could take a physically talented player and "coach him up". Perhaps Elam's current status with the team suggests that he is not as coachable as they hoped he would be? The popular pick for the Bills at the time (by many fans and pundits alike) was Breece Hall. He dropped to the 2nd round to the Jets. Have to wonder how much differently things may have gone if the Bills had made that pick -- especially not knowing at the time that the late-round pick of Benford would help soften the apparent miss on Elam.

Also, he is tiny. Like 5'6" so not much of a catch radius. Still, he has made some key plays the last 2 weeks, so I believe he merits more looks in the offense.

Funny thing is that many were complaining about Dorsey's lack of creativity last week when Cook ran the ball all 6 times that the situation was 2nd and short. Yet, Cook converted a first down on 5 out of 6 of those situations. So I am not complaining. Also, maybe that perceived tendency will open the playbook up in those 2nd and short situations.

I think getting Ed back would be a huge shot in the arm to the pass rush, which was nearly non-existent against Mac Jones last week. Baker likes to hold onto the ball and is not especially elusive, so the opportunity should be there to get some pressure on him.

Well, I am hopeful that the Bills did figure out how to beat it. Scored TDs on 3 of 4 possessions in the 2nd half (not counting the desperate last 12 seconds). Maybe a 4th down drop from Knox away from going 4 for 4. The key beginning Thursday will be to make the necessary adjustments sooner.

I suppose the thought could be that the possible infraction had no bearing on the play given that the center did not actually block anyone. But that is not for the officials to decide. It smells of the NY office calling down to the field to tell the officials to pick the flag up so that Billy B. could get a shot at winning #300 at home. Not saying that is what happened, but sometimes perception is reality.

If you told me ahead of time that Josh would complete 65% of his passes against the Pats, toss 2 TD passes and rush for another, convert on a 2-point conversion, and have only one turnover, I would have expected that the Bills would have beaten the Patriots going away. The play of the admittedly depleted defense -- coupled with (and give them credit where it is due) Mac Jones and the Patriots offense playing out of their minds -- is what cost the Bills the game. That said... There are certainly things that Josh can do better. Three games in a row now opposing defenses have done a good job of making him uncomfortable, which has resulted in some timing/poor decision issues. Dorsey needs to design and call more plays that help to get the ball out of his hand quickly. And Josh needs to deliver on those plays rather than look for the kill shot every time. Like the old saying goes, "You will never go broke if you make a profit every time". The bad news is that the defense is likely going to be a season-long problem as (barring a significant trade) I don't see reinforcements on their way. So it is going to be important for Josh and the offense to score. Hopefully, the performance by the offense in the 2nd half against the Pats will help to ignite them. If nothing else, maybe he has some faith in Kincaid now as another reliable, chain-moving weapon.

My theory is that immediately after last Sunday night's game against the Giants, Bill B. gave his buddy B. Daboll a call to ask him what deficiencies in Josh's game could be exploited.

I do sense a bit of loss in confidence on Josh's part -- but I think it is confidence he has lost in his teammates and play calling rather than confidence in himself. It's hard to blame him. Yesterday, he had trouble setting his feet before seeing pressure in his face. One play in particular we had 6 OL -- and a pass rusher STILL managed to get through. Meanwhile our own pass rush failed to pressure Jones really at all -- but that is a different topic... One thing I noticed/remember back in 2020 was how Josh's receivers were going all out to reel in difficult/contested catches for him. In particular, I remember the season opener against the Jets back then when he had a couple of bone-headed fumbles but still managed to fit the ball into tight windows and wound up with his first 300-yard game of his career. That was followed the next week by his first 400-yard game (against Miami). I thought at the time that perhaps it was the "Diggs" effect, as this was Diggs' first season with the Bills, he was making great catches and the emphasis was also rubbing off on other guys. It seems that we just are not seeing those great bale-out catches this year. Even from Diggs, who HAS been remarkable in 2023. For example, while Diggs had that great play on the TD, he also failed to haul in a couple of slightly off-target throws that we have seen him catch multiple times in the past. At the end of the game, Josh threw possibly his finest pass of the season with 12 seconds left, a pass that went 50 yards in the air on a rope that hit Diggs right in the hands. Was a torch like that easy to handle? Certainly not, but we have seen Diggs catch similar passes many times (in the final seconds against Detroit last Thanksgiving, for example). A catch there would have set us up at the 30 yard line with one play to go. A pass from the 30 yard line is by no means a sure thing -- but it is also not a Hail Mary. The play calling is off -- but so is the design of far too many plays. It really does seem like everything the offense does seems to take so much effort. We saw the stat line showing how much more effective Josh is when the ball comes out of his hand quickly. Yet we see so few well constructed quick-hitting slants, etc. Maybe much of this is on Josh as he wants to forego such a play and try for something bigger downfield. There were times when he was flushed from the pocket and was unable to see an open receiver on the other side of the field -- but there were also far too many plays where he alluded a pass rusher, rolled out and every receiver was covered. It just seems like the receivers just are not getting separation on a consistent basis. Not sure how much of this is play design (like 3 receivers in the same vicinity) and how much of it is lack of talent from receivers not named Diggs. And, for the love of God, can we stop going to Knox in critical situations? It is promising that Kincaid was such a factor yesterday -- and his hands appear to be for real. Maybe Josh will form a trust with him similar to what he had with Beasley and help get this offense back in gear.

Given the huge injuries to the defensive side of the ball, I agree that getting a DT to replace Jones is paramount. Missing both him and Oliver yesterday was huge. I would also like to see a decent CB brought in. Elam's days here appear to be numbered (ironically, maybe he could be part of a trade package) and Dane Jackson has not been good either this year. Honestly, if we bring in someone on the offensive side of the ball, I would be more inclined to make a move for an OT than a receiver. The whole line struggled yesterday. Even when Brown has "decent" days it is usually because he has had to get help from a TE chipping -- which limits the ability of the TEs to make big plays in the passing game. That said, Dalton did have a coming out party yesterday, so hopefully that continues. All of this is to say that I would not break the bank (and future draft compensation) to bring in a WR that likely won't get heavily targeted anyway -- but if there is a dude out there with reliable hands that can consistently convert on 1st downs I would be all for it.

Also, accepting the penalty would have STOPPED the clock which is counter to the point that it was a mistake to decline it and have one fewer down to eat clock. So I definitely agree that McD made the right choice.