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Everything posted by hondo in seattle
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The Nickel has been the NFL's base defense for several years. Last year teams lined up in Nickel 56% of the time and their "base" defense only 27% of the time. Playing defense is as important as its ever been because you still have to score more points than the opponent so you have to slow/stop the other team's scoring. Apparently McD thought the Nickel was the best way to slow the Rams down. So convinced that he played Nickel pretty much every play which was a surprise. But you're right. We didn't have the personnel to make it work. A couple years ago we had the lowest paid roster in the NFL and arguably the least talented. Phase 1 of Beane's rebuilding plan was to get the right coach in place and fix the salary cap. That's been done. Now he's going to continue to build/fine tune the roster. The rebuild isn't yet complete. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/defensive-personnel-analysis-2019
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The defense is missing an emotional leader
hondo in seattle replied to Sharky7337's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
How can we know that? Even with Covid-empty stadiums, we can't hear what players are saying to each other on the field, on the sidelines, in the locker room. My sense of player leadership always comes from what the players themselves are saying because they actually know what's going on. And I just haven't heard enough about the leadership dynamic this year from the players to confidently form an opinion. I can see that the defense isn't playing as well this year so far as last year. But I don't see players missing assignments as much as I see players getting beat. That's a talent problem more than a leadership problem. -
The defense is missing an emotional leader
hondo in seattle replied to Sharky7337's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
As a fan, I have little idea what goes on in the video/meeting rooms, on the sideline, on the playing field, or in the locker room. You may be right about a lack of leadership. But we can only speculate. -
FMIA W Peter King lead is about Josh Allen ppl
hondo in seattle replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I really like Peter King. He's got access to a ton of players, coaches, and execs and can write better than the average sportswriter. It's true that despite all that, his analyses and predictions are often wrong. I remember when we first hired Buddy Nix to be our GM, King thought we should have gone instead after a bright up-and-comer named Doug Whaley who he believed would become a great GM. So I don't pay much attention to his predictions but his insider information is awesome. This was the first I heard of Allen's relationship with Romo. -
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Hall of Famer? or First Ballot HoFer?
hondo in seattle replied to DrDawkinstein's topic in The Stadium Wall
When I cast my imaginary ballot for the Hall of Fame, I ask myself, "When he played, did I know he was a Hall of Famer?" Watching Bruce Smith play, for example, it was clear to me that he should be in the Hall of Fame some day. I, um, NEVER felt that way about Fitz when I watched him play. I like the guy. I admire the guy - he's made a great career for himself after entering the NFL with a very humble skill set. And I give him credit. It took years but he eventually became a good QB. He just never became a great QB. The poor guy always seemed to be a placeholder - the QB a team settles for until someone better comes along. All that said, just because it's nearly impossible not to love the guy, I voted 'First Ballot.' -
FiveThirtyEight - Josh Allen Article
hondo in seattle replied to Che Guevara's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Color me unimpressed by this article. The author says that some metrics are highly variable while others are more stable and predictive - but offers no evidence or analysis. He goes on to note that "Allen's numbers are great in the unstable, less predictive metrics and middle in the road in their stable, more predictive counterparts." He concludes that Allen is likely to return to his norm of 2018 and 2019. This analysis precludes the whole idea of progress. For example, he argues that passing efficiency from a clean pockets is both stable and predictive. I'm sure if you're looking at a QB in mid-career that's true. But don't tell me that young QBs don't often get better at passing efficiency from a clean pocket over time. The author, btw, never mentions whether or not Allen has made progress in the predictive metrics from 2018 to now. He doesn't look to see if there's any upward trend. If these metrics are truly predictive, wouldn't we expect an upward trend to continue? Furthermore, he makes the ridiculous argument that Allen achieved his statistical heights this year against weak opponents. How - statistically speaking - do we know the Jets and Fins have weak defenses at this point in the season? Not counting the Bills game, each had only played one opponent. What conclusions can you base off of that? Both the Jets and Fins defenses may have had bad statistical performances against the Bills simply because Allen and the Bills offense are that good. We just don't know yet. Fitz, Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Rich Gannon, Jim Plunkett, Len Dawson and many other QBs improved over time. Steve Deberg had a 40.0 passer rating in his first year as a starter. He only got better after that with a peak rating of 96.3 as a 12 year veteran. Early career stats often are NOT predictive of future performance. Players sometimes just get better. They eye test seems to say that Allen is indeed getting better with his touch, deep ball, mechanics, and ability to find the open receiver. The signs are certainly hopeful but I don't think two games is enough to rush to any conclusions, pro or con. -
OL/DL win rate after 2 weeks
hondo in seattle replied to syhuang's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
When a pickpocket walks down the street, all he notices is pockets. When a horny man walks down the street, all he notices is who he wants to do. Our paradigms and desires shape our perceptions. There are Bills fans who are not Murphy fans. They tend to notice his flaws and are less likely to see his strengths. -
Bills Playcalling with 10 Personnel
hondo in seattle replied to cage's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
No disrespect to Knox and the blocks of ice he calls hands, why not line up in a 10 formation when your four best receivers are wide receivers? With the speed and talent our wide outs have, and the arm Josh has, we force opposing defenses to defend the entire length and breadth of the field. That's a tall order. I got to imagine this will eventually benefit the running game as well. -
I’m already willing to admit it, I was wrong on Diggs
hondo in seattle replied to DCofNC's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I thought Diggs was a fantastic pickup. But I also thought his production might be a little off just because (1) we have other legit targets, and (2) Josh hasn't put up big passing numbers over the course of his short career. But I think Daboll's, Josh's, and DIgg's wildest fantasies are coming true - at least thru Week 2. I never expected Allen to be #1 in passing yards and Diggs #1 in receiving yards at this point. It's an awesome surprise! -
I think 2020 3rd quarter lack of scoring is a red herring. The Bills are 3rd in the NFL in yards, 8th in scoring so far this year. The offense has been fine. I think the lack of scoring in the 3rd quarter is a meaningless statistical aberration. To suggest that we're continuing a multi year trend is premature. We've only played two games and this is not the Bills of past years. Daboll has fully implemented his offense. Allen has seemingly mature as a QB. And the offense has new weapons this year. I think we need to wait a few games to make any characterizations about the 2020 Bills offense. I'm pretty sure it won't have the same traits as the 2018 offense when the 3rd quarter problems began. More specifically, I don't think the 3rd quarter drought will continue. Let's wait and see.
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Anybody surprised at the lack of running thus far?
hondo in seattle replied to DCofNC's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
When Daboll was in New England, he was helping to coach one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history. I gotta imagine that made an impression on him and helped shaped his coaching philosophy. Belichick likes to attack whatever mismatches he sees, whether through the air or on the ground. He also tries not to be predictable and show up with the game plan you expected from him. I think Daboll is emulating that approach. -
SNF: Patriots at Seahawks
hondo in seattle replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Although I currently live in the Seattle area, I'm not normally much of a Seahawks fan. I am tonight. Condolences to James White & family. -
Yeah, that was my assumption. 90 degree temp with 90% humidity - that can be tough. When I was a soldier at Fort Stewart, GA, we hated field training during 90-90 days.
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Josh Allen Hasn't thrown for 500 yards!
hondo in seattle replied to Mike in Horseheads's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
300 yards last week. 400 yards this week. If he doesn't throw for 500 yards next week, I'll be sorely disappointed. -
Sports Psychiatrist
hondo in seattle replied to BillsShredder83's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Decades ago when I was an undergrad at Purdue, basketball coach Gene Keady brought in a sports psychologist to work with his unheralded team. They finished Big Ten co-champions and credited the psychologist for his contribution. -
Every D has a bad game. Missing the two LBs clearly hurt. Fitz isn't the best QB in the NFL but he is a smart, savvy vet and he knew how to find the mismatches. Sure the OL could be better. But enjoy the trajectory. A couple years ago, we had the lowest paid roster in the NFL and it showed. Beane has done tremendous work building a good roster and hopefully the trend continues and the team we field next year is better yet.
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The Offense carried the Defense
hondo in seattle replied to BBills88's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
This is exactly what I thought when the final seconds ticked off. Our offense has done enough to get us into the playoffs 2 of the past 3 seasons. But just enough. The defense has carried the yeoman's share of the load. And without a more productive offense, playoff success was going to remain elusive. I would have preferred a 31-0 final score instead of 31-28. But it was really fun to see the offense deliver a victory on a day that our defense - hindered by injuries - played a subpar game. -
Lots of Bills LBs nominated. And lots of very good players nominated but only a very few that I think are deserving of the Hall. I've always been torn about Tasker. He was great at special teams but that's not a lot of reps per game. If he wasn't a Bill, I'd say no.
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Josh's game today wasn't a thing of extraordinary beauty but he got the job done. The RBs weren't doing much so Josh moved the team with both his legs and his arm. We could have scored 40 if not for the two fumbles and two missed FGs. I don't want a QB who throws for 300 yards every game. If a QB is throwing for those kinds of yards all the time it probably means the running game isn't producing jack or the defense is playing turnstile. But today Josh needed to put up 300 and he did. The first half was very fun to watch. This offense has potential.