hondo in seattle

Indeed, why draft a back in the 3rd round when you already have an up-and-coming young back? I like Josh a lot but I don't know if he's ever going to be a Brees-Brady type QB who can move an offense down the field almost single-handedly. But he can play an effective role in a balanced offensive attack.

I know there's folks out there who think Moss has more upside. Maybe so. But Singletary has already proven himself to be a capable back at the NFL level and he's got a year of experience in Daboll's offense. Moss is trying to play catch up in a Covid 19 impacted offseason. Baring injury, Devin will have the better season.

I think OJ just may be the greatest football player of all time. In his prime – after Lou Saban unleashed him and before his knee injury – he was other worldly. 1960 to 1979 was the “Golden Age of Running Backs.” Today, QBs dominate the top of the draft but in those days it was RBs. NFL teams were built around bell cow RBs, not franchise QBs. So America’s best athletes became RBs. Sports Illustrated splashed the covers of their mag with the best college and pro RBs. And with all due respect to Jim Brown, the very best of them all might have been OJ. On the gridiron, he looked like an Olympian god playing with mortals. It’s common these days to hear Brady described as the GOAT but OJ deserves a prominent place in that conversation. If Brady is better than contemporaries like Brees and Rodgers, it’s not by a hell of a lot. But OJ was a man among boys. In 1973, when he rushed for over 2,000 yards, the next best rushing total was 1,144. OJ nearly doubled that prolific output. Rushing yards could be hard to come by because in those days defenses were built to stop the run. But OJ was gashing teams for 6.5 yards per carry. In 1973, the Bills didn’t have much of a passing offense, nor much of a defense. OJ was the Bills only weapon. So the game plan for each and every opponent was simple: Stop OJ. They couldn’t do it. Having said all that, I think the SOB should be off the wall. One of the things wrong with our country is we lionize the wrong people. Often our kids’ heroes are rich, self-absorbed celebrities. I think our country’s heroes ought to be folks that are mostly – if not perfectly – good roles models. We should be lionizing teachers, fire fighters, (good) law enforcement officers, soldiers, sailors, civil rights activists, and social justice campaigners. I love seeing Bob Kalsu’s name on the Wall of Fame. He might not have been a great football player but he was a great American. And then there’s Jack Kemp, who honorably served his community and his country after his football career. And Cookie Gilchrist, who fought for the equal treatment of blacks during the era of segregation. And Darryl Talley, who embodied effort and teamwork. And the marvelous Marv Levy, who served in uniform during WWII. And then, up there with the rest of them, is OJ Simpson, murderer. I wonder how the Nicole Brown and Ron Goldman feel when they see how in Buffalo we honor the most evil person in their collective lives. Take him down.

If an offense is too simple, the defense will be to read & react correctly. Not only does this slow down the offense, it frustrates the players. An offense that's too complicated makes execution (and success) difficult and also frustrates the players. Somewhere in the middle is a sweet spot.

Ralph OJ Bruce Kelly The Bills wouldn't exist without Ralph. And they wouldn't have remained in Buffalo. OJ is arguably the best running back in NFL history. (He's also a homicidal schmuck so I can see leaving off). Bruce is arguably the best DE ever. Kelly was the leader of the Bills during their greatest era.

I'm a bit of a news junkie and back in January, I started ignoring what the Chinese government and media reporters were saying in Wuhan. Instead I started paying attention to the actual science and what the epidemiologists were saying about the reproduction and mortality rates of the novel coronavirus. I told my wife and some friends, "This coronavirus thing is going to go pandemic. It's coming to America and thousands will die. It's gonna be bad." A few believed me. Most were kind of like, "I've never seen a new disease sweep across America like that and I'm not going to believe it's going to happen now until it does." I'm not right about a lot of things but I was right about Covid 19 because the data was telling us a compelling - if unexpected - story if we simply chose to pay attention and educate ourselves. Kirby is doing more-or-less he same thing with the Pats. He's ignoring the media pundits and doing his own expert analysis. In contrast, most football fans are saying - despite the data: "I'll believe it when I see it." And in this case, I find myself in the I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it crowd. So much for intellectual consistency!!! Bill and the Pats haven't won less than 10 games since 2002. They haven't had a losing season since Bill's first season in Foxboro in 2000. So it's difficult to imagine the Pats suffering a losing season in 2020. Sadly, three things in life seem to be certain: death, taxes, and the Pats finishing ahead of the Bills in the AFCE. The world turns, the sun rises, the Pats beat the Bills. That's just how the universe works. So that's why I don't believe the Pats will fall this year. Granted, it's not an intellectually satisfying argument so let me offer this instead. Belichick is an extraordinary coach. The Pats special teams were very good last year - 3rd in the NFL according to Gosselin. The Pats D was downright dominant. Brady, on the other hand was far from dominant - just 18th in passer rating, 17th in QBR, and 27th in yards/attempt. The Pats won 12 games last year despite Brady's lackluster statistical showing. As impressive as Brady's career has been, he's been just one ingredient in Belichick's recipe for success. With that one ingredient out of many missing, Bill will find a - albeit inferior - substitute to make the recipe work. If Belichick can win with Cassel, he will win with Stiddy.

Interesting work. Probably should be in the Epenesa thread.

This sounds great. But is it? How good are these evaluators? How many good evaluators are there, actually, not working as NFL scouts? It seems like using 60 "evaluators," instead of say 20, only waters down the quality of the evaluator pool.

I've been impressed with Beane and mostly like this draft. But there's an old saying in India, "When a pickpocket walks down the street, all he sees are pockets." We all tend to see what we're hoping & looking to see. A hungry guy driving down a street will notice all the restaurants. A horny hetero guy driving down the street will notice all the ladies. Bills optimists find things to love about this draft because they're looking for reasons to believe. On the other hand, I think skeptics can find valid reasons for concern.

Our DL depth is fantastic. I can't remember a time when it was better. But let me ask, Addison doesn't start? The guy's had 39 sacks in the past 4 years.

If you're going to do skepticism, GD, do it right. Don't start your post with two enthusiastic A grades. Round 1. Diggs. A good GM can find an impact player in the first round. Instead Beane got an impact player by trading his first round pick away. The difference? A draftee gets a modest rookie contract and Diggs is getting paid $12m per year. More bonehead moves like this and Beane will quickly return us to Cap Hell. Grade D. Round 2. Epenesa. An edge rusher that lacks the burst to get around the edge. We used a second round pick to get another Shaq Lawson. Grade D. Round 3. Moss. The three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust era is long gone. In the modern NFL, you need chunk plays to score. Yet, with the Moss pick, Beane seems intent on making sure the Bills backfield is entirely devoid of breakaway speed. Grade D. Round 4. Davis. While there's a lot to like about Josh Allen, pinpoint accuracy isn't one of them. So Bean drafts a guy who will struggle to gain separation at the NFL level? This is hard to understand. Grade F. Round 5. Fromm. Although he was an accomplished college signal caller, this guy's biggest contributions to the greater Buffalo community will be the 'Jake from' jokes. Beane picked a QB who lacks NFL arm strength when Buffalo is the windiest city in the NFL. Grade D. Round 6. Bass. Excellent college kicker who will fail to beat out Hauschka and won't make the team. But maybe drafting Bass pushes the incumbent to improve a little? Grade D. Round 6. Hodgins. Another wideout who can't separate - just what Josh needs. Grade F. Round 7. Jackson. 4.57 forty time. No ball awareness. Classic camp fodder. But, hell, it's the 7th round. Grade C. Besides WRs who can separate, what Josh needs is a better OL to protect him and better TEs. Yet Beane didn't draft anyone to upgrade those position groups. Not a good draft, says the skeptic.

To me, it's all about the eye test. Does the OL create holes on running plays? Do they give their QB a clean pocket? Are they able to push defenders back on short yardage plays? While there are some stats that capture elements of these things, stats can be skewed by a number of factors independent of the ability of the OL (QB play, RB talent, play-calling).

2016... good player - maybe a future 1st rounder 2017... torn ACL 2018... back surgery 2019... mediocre player - not fully recovered? Here are the closing sentences of a good article on Trey from SB Nation: "If you’re an NFL GM wanting to take a chance on him in the later rounds, obviously your angle would be hoping that with time Adams could return to his earlier form or at least near it. Who knows if that’s possible — likely it’s not, but if your team drafts him at a later round and he does overcome his injury history and get his athleticism back to earlier, then you’ve obviously just gotten a huge steal." https://www.uwdawgpound.com/2020/4/19/21226649/washington-huskies-football-nfl-draft-profile-trey-adams

This is interesting. I don't put much faith in draft grades. How much does a guy sitting in his home office actually know about all these prospects. An NFL team employs a team of scouts, watches countless hours of video, compiles advanced analytics, conducts player interviews, utilizes insider information... even hires private investigators in some cases. A Mel Kiper or Todd McShay just can't compete. They don't have the resources (money, man hours, sources) - not even close. But there might be something to this "wisdom of the masses" approach. Collectively, the draft gurus might actually give out accurate draft grades. And I'm happy to see the Bills scored much higher than the Pats.

Kirby, I get your concern but I'd rather draft a good football player than a combine warrior. There are hundreds of examples like this but let me remind you of just one. Steve Largent was small and slow - WRs are supposed to be big and fast. He was drafted in the 4th round and then waived because he wasn't athletic enough for the NFL. And then he proceeded to have a HOF career with Seattle. Some guys are just good football players. They possess important skills that aren't adequately measured at the combine but show up on the field of play. Epenesa can't run fast. But how fast can he beat his man with his hand skills, shed the block, and get to the QB? The tape says he can do these things plenty quick.

Daboll of course is quite familiar with the success the Pats had with the 12 grouping when Hernandez and Gronk were there. But I'm not sure about the 12 in Buffalo. Generally speaking, the best offensive formation is the one that puts your best players on the field. Personally, I'm not enamored with any of our TEs. Except for short yardage situations, I don't really want to see more than one of them on the field on the same play. Like every other NFL team, we'll run a lot of 11. It'll be interesting to see how much 21 or 22 we run - Daboll might want both our young backs on the field at the same time.

I apologize if this was already posted. Interesting observation from Bleacher Report... "...several opponents (and teammates) called Epenesa the toughest defender they ever faced, or the second-toughest besides Chase Young." https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2888450-nfl-draft-2020-day-2-grades-for-every-pick

I'm going with the inaugural 1920 season - Buffalo's first (debated) championship. The Buffalo Americans finished 9-1-1. They took the name "All Americans" because so many players were in fact college All Americans. The uber talented squad steamrolled their hapless opponents. They won each of their first four games by 20 points or more - a record not equaled until the 2007 Pats. They outscored their first seven opponents by 218 points - a record that still stands. The Akron Pros finished that season with a 8-3 record and had tied Buffalo when the two teams went head to head. If a tie counts as a half-win/half-loss - which is how many saw it - the teams were dead even atop the standings. Both teams ended the season by celebrating their co-championship. Only at a later NFL meeting was the championship taken from Buffalo and awarded solely to Akron. In 1921, Buffalo would again have the NFL championship stolen from them at a NFL meeting after the conclusion of the season in the so-called "Staley Swindle."

1977 was a horrible year for the Bills. OJ got hurt and never played for the Bills again. Jim Ringo was the HC. His 3-20 career record earn him consideration as the worst NFL head coach in NFL history. The O was pathetic. The D was terrible. Not sure who watched these games.

Most of us will look at points per game and yards per game. But as the "eye test" tells, those stats don't tell the whole story. If the offense is giving up lots of 3-and-outs, losing the battle for field position, and coughing up the ball, that team's defense will suffer the consequences. One of my favorite stats is yards per drive. It's not perfect either but a good D will not give up a lot of yards per drive. Defenses that face a lot of drives because of their inept offense will not be disadvantaged in the yards-per-drive statistical rankings.

In a different thread, I said I wouldn't be surprised by any pick outside of QB, P, and K. Reading Buffalo Timmy's post, I'll add FB. I agree with BisonMan that the Bills probably feel good about the roster and aren't thinking a lot about positional needs going into the draft. GMs say "BPA" all the time but in fact balance BPA with need. But I think Beane truly is looking for the BPA. Needless to say, the Bills are more likely to draft good players if they're thinking BPA instead of roster spots they need to fill. So despite the lack of a pick in the 1st round, I'm looking forward to this draft. And when the first round is in progress, I'm going to imagine Roger Goodell saying, "And with the 22nd pick of the 2020 NFL draft, the Bills select Stefon Diggs!"

Reading this thread, I feel like I'm in a minority because I don't care much about the announcers. Two Bills Drive keeps me up-to-date on the Bills and I don't need Fouts to explain to me who's who or what's going on. I do appreciate it when a color commentator goes deep into X's and O's but that's rare and doesn't seem to be what the networks want their color commentators to do.

I don't think we have a lot of "needs." And rather than reaching for a "need," I really think Beane should go BPA - as he said he would. When you draft for need, you end up passing on better guys who would have helped your team more in the long run. If Diggs turns out to be the BPA when the Bills are on the clock, it could be fun to have Stefon's little brother. And he does sound like a good fit for McD's D.

The OJ type backs get drafted in the first round. Bulldozers usually last a little longer. I don't follow college football very closely but I imagine there's a good bulldozer to be found when the Bills are picking.

I'm not sure about the gas. In any case, I'd like our other back to be a big, bruising, between-the-tackles kind of guy. Thunder and Lightning.