OldTimer1960

I think most of us agree with that assessment. I think there is still an outside chance that Davis improves his hands - as Knox and Zay Jones did after having problems with drops, but best not to count on that. I’m not sure that there are great options available in FA - at least that the team can afford. As far as the draft, I think the team will need luck in how the draft falls in order to address WR early this year. I think this is a mediocre WR class, but views of prospects can change at the combine next week. I fear that any WR left at 27 will be at least a minor stretch for that pick and I won’t be very surprised if the to 10 WRs are off the board before the Bills’ 2nd pick. Last year’s class seemed stronger than this year’s, but 13 WRs were selected before pick 59. Of course, that doesn’t mean they can’t find a good WR prospect, just that it won’t be easy.

Edmunds has been a multi-year starter on statistically very good defenses and made 2 Pro Bowls. Players selected right after him included: Derwin James, Jaire Alexander, Leighton Vanderesch, Frank Ragnow, Billy Price, Rahsaan Evans, Isaiah Wynn. Most of them good to very good players like Edmunds - you might argue that you like one of them better than Edmunds, but Edmunds fits pretty well in that group. Ed Oliver has been a very good starter and has made impact plays. I agree that he isn’t a complete game-changer, but he isn’t embarrassed by the group picked right after him : Devin Bush, Jonah Williams, Raschan Gary, Christian Wilkins. Rousseau played with a high ankle sprain from week 9 on - those are tough to deal with. Further, if the benchmark for draft success is a guy whose play isn’t impacted when another very important player (Miller) is lost, then that is a very high bar. Does Rousseau stand out as a bone-head pick among the 5 or so players picked after him? Devin Singletary has been fine for the 74th pick in a draft. Picked right after were: Jake Sternberger, Terry McClaurin, Chase Winovich, Michael Dieter, David Long. McClaurin is arguably better, but Singletary was a good productive pick in that spot. You can only pick from the players that are available when your pick comes. Is Beane’s draft record perfect? No, I am not arguing that, but Beane has built a very good team and his drafting has been much better in my view than you see it.

I disagree that none of their early picks have met expectations. Greg Rousseau is really coming on as a complete DE and he is still very young. Edmunds, for all the complaints on this board about him, is about to get paid a lot by some team because he is better than fans see him as. Harrison Phillips is a starter for the Vikings. I know that Ed Oliver isn’t Aaron Donald, but he is a good starting DT who is as good or better than many others picked around that time in that draft. I concede that Cody Ford was a whiff and that Epenesa and Basham haven’t met what we might expect for 2nd round picks, but I haven’t written either off. Epenesa has shown flashes as a pass rusher and I still think that Basham will be a decent pro. Of course, I think we can all agree that Josh Allen has exceeded the expectations for his draft position.

Eliminating half the players in the draft from consideration probably isn’t the best strategy.

I think that many people, fans and media alike, overestimate what impact it is reasonable to expect with the X-th pick. Would it be great if every 1st and 2nd round pick, regardless of being early, middle or late in the round, turn out to be stars? Of course, but that isn’t how it always works out and no team is immune from disappointing outcomes for many reasons.

only 1 team out of 32 does not get bounced out of playoffs or earlier. Of course, we all want them to win a championship, but realize it is VERY hard to do.

Your points are true, but I think it would be foolish to just flat not consider half of the players in the draft because they play defense. That, I think, would be a recipe for reaches and disappointment. I understand and agree that if there are relatively equal options available at any given pick on offense and defense that we'd prefer they lean offense, but I think it looks likely that at some of their picks that there could be better options on defense available than on offense. For instance, I think that there could be a better pass rusher available at pick 27 than the options remaining at OL and WR.

If Gabe Dais can improve his consistency on catchable passes, he can be a decent to good #2 WR. It is possible - look no further than Dawson Knox who improved his catch rate and it took a few years, but Zay Jones has become a reliable receiver. In general, I think that we as fans are a bit quick to write off young players. Now, I'm not saying that Davis WILL improve, nor am I saying that they should not invest in competition for him.

Now, THAT’S funny!

I don’t know that Hyatt is seen as the same level prospect that Jameson Williams was. No doubt Hyatt is very fast and has pretty good hands.

Top 5 QB - I’m just saying that means there are at least 4 other teams that are equally as good at the most important position. I would say that there are even more QBs in that range. All that I am saying is that this team is good enough to win it all with some breaks, but so are several other teams. Being outraged that they didn’t win it all ignores those other outstanding teams. Now, I am NOT saying that they shouldn’t try to improve - of course they should. I am also NOT saying that it is wrong to be disappointed. I am only saying that it never was the case that this team was clearly far superior to any other team, so it doesn’t make sense to me to be looking for scapegoats.

I think 13-3 says they got a lot right so far.

Thank you for this post. I feel exactly the same way.

If you want to deny that the many problems they faced this year - decimated secondary, loss of a home game to blizzard, another blizzard that disrupted travel, Allen elbow injury, culminated by Hamlin flat-lining on the field - finally caught up with them against a very good Bengals team, then that is up to you. I think that they showed amazing perseverance and resolve this season.

I haven’t seen drops as a criticism of Hyatt. I think the thing that is concerning about Hyatt is that he has done little except run long from the slot and there is more to being a very good NFL WR than that. I am confident that Hyatt can be a deep threat from the slot, but the risk is that he might not be more than that. He might be capable of more than that, but I don’t think there is any evidence to support that.

Continue putting the best team that they can on the field and with some luck they could win (same for all teams. I think it would be crazy to fire the GM or Head Coach. I don’t necessarily believe that replacing the coordinators is necessary (or wise). See if the draft can help the OL and fill what holes you can with limited FA $.

That is part of what you evaluate when assessing players. Now, i admit I haven’t seen anything suggesting that Hyatt has off-field issues.

I thought that Basham played reasonably well. He isn’t likely going to be a 10 sack a year guy, but he does get some pressure and is pretty good against the run.

I think Bergeron will be taken in the 2nd. Just because a player can play two positions doesn’t mean that he isn’t good at both. Bills look for position flexibility. A lot of players play positions other than they played in college.

Wright could be a good pick, but not sure he can play G. Someone like Syracuse's Matt Bergeron played T in college, but I think he also has played G. There are other guys you could consider in such a scenario - like Cody Mauch who probably should be inside in the NFL, but might be able to survive at RT if needed.

Outstanding!

Brown really had no strength training all last offseason due to a back problem. He missed basically all of training camp, too. He is young and really didn’t have a lot of experience coming out of college - he played all of one season and his school canceled the season before the draft because of COVID. There is certainly no guarantee that he is the answer, but I would wait and see how he does next year after hopefully a full offseason of training before giving up on him. That doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t consider taking an OT early in the draft - especially one that can also play G.

Bills would not have won the Wild Card game against Miami without his contributions. This year’s 3rd and 4th probably won’t even get you to the top of the 3rd. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

There are some really nice options for the slot in the draft, hoping we can go OL round 1 and slot round 2 (or outside Wr). We have to not reach to achieve that. Better OL = more time for wr to get open and defense has to pay attention to run as well.

This was done a few years back and estimates probabilities of finding starters by draft round for most positions https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round