OldTimer1960

I don’t see how they could fit Hopkins under their cap without taking a second mortgage (contract extension) and I don’t want to do that for a 31 y.o. who was recently injured AND recently suspended for performance enhancing drugs. I don’t know that his body is breaking down, but at 31 coupled with the PED use, I’ll pass on mortgaging the future.

Former Miami GM Mike Tannenbaum thinks the Bills should take RB Jahmyr Gibbs at pick 27. This would be a pick that I really would not understand. He might be a little better than James Cook, but they are similar in being undersized and that neither should be used regularly between the tackles. I just can’t even imagine this pick for the Bills, it would be redundant with Cook. Now, if you trade Cook it might be plausible, but in a year with a strong RB class, Cook’s value would be depressing.

I wanted to believe in him, but in the games I watched I thought he had trouble getting separation and had some bad drops. No doubt, I saw him make some very good catches, so maybe drops are concentration lapses. Still, I will be a little surprised if he is drafted before the 3rd round. BIG CAVEAT: I’m a fan who “tries” to scout through game videos, but I don’t know the technical aspects of any given position.

Welp, that would be really nice if he can do it well.

I will be surprised if he does start at ILB, he is really small for that position. Now, maybe he can start on the outside opposite Milano, but they have usually used only 2LBs. Going to 3 LBs would take Tarim Johnson off the field more which is probably not preferable. I don’t know that his lateral movement is ideal - in spite of his Combine performance. I’m not saying he is bad, just that there will likely be better players available at 27 than him. No doubt all players have some weaknesses.

I think another reason that corner might be in play is White’s salary to performance ratio. He might return to form next year after his knee injury, but it’s possible that he doesn’t. In the latter case, tough to have that much salary tied up in a guy who may no longer be a top performer. Having a backup plan for that has some allure.

For me, it’s mainly that he is very undersized, especially for inside backer.

Get ready for MLB to be a problem this season. I agree that they could not responsibly pay Edmunds enough for him to stay, but man, options to replace him in FA and the draft are slim. Many of the LBs in the draft are undersized for inside and the few with size (Campbell, Sanders, and Simpson) all have holes in their game somewhere and all would be at least modest reaches at the end of round 1, but will likely all be gone before Bills’ 2nd round pick.

I think it’s possible that the middle-of-the-pack defensive rating was partially due to how low scoring the Bills’ offense was - opponents really didn’t need to score a lot to beat that Bills’ team, so I would guess the opponents were conservative on offense once they got a lead.

Why would you trade a future pick for a pick in a draft as weak as this one?

So, adding those two guarantees they will be better than every other team and guarantee a Super Bowl? I don’t. Problem 1: injury- if Allen or Diggs goes down, no Super Bowl. Problem 2: what if KC or Cincinnati or someone else outscores them? Quite possible, even with those two additions. Even if they magically got Justin Jefferson, is Diggs/Jefferson clearly better than Hill/Waddle in Miami or the Bengals WRs or the Eagles WRs? Of course, I can’t say that those in the “all in - future cap problems be damned camp” are wrong. I just would rather have a consistently competitive team - something that is possible with Josh Allen under contract - than have to reset the roster in a year or two and waste 2-3 years of Allen’s career rebuilding. I believe that being consistently in the mix will maximize their chances of winning a Super Bowl as compared with “all in for a year, then rebuild”.

Yes, that’s true. Players for the most part are happy to restructure and get money sooner. Hopkins is 31 y.o. And has 2 years remaining on his contract at (roughly) $20M for 2023 and $15M for 2024 when he will be 32 y.o. Most restructured contracts add time on the backend of the contract and pay a big chunk up front to be amortized over the remaining years on the contract. For example, Bills could add 2 years to Hopkins contract at basically $0/ year and pay him the total $35M now as a signing bonus. That would allow them to take a cap hit of $35/4 = $8.75M per year for 2023-2026. Sounds great, but if Hopkins play falls on due to injury or age or he decides to retire after 2024 - the Bills would have to eat $15M of dead cap in 2025. i expect this will happen with Von Miler at some point - he isn’t going to play the length of his contract and the Bills will have to weather that dead cap hit.

My view is that “adding Hopkins (or any other 1 or 2 players) in no way guarantees you a SB next year. Last year’s Bills team was good enough to win it all, injuries derailed that and other teams are damn good, too. Forget the cap for a minute and tell me which two players, if they were magically acquired, would guarantee a Super Bowl win next year?

Signing bonus does kick can down the road. Convert his $20M salary to a bonus allows you to spread the cap hit over the length of the remaining contract, but if he retires before end of contract, the unamortized portion hits immediately.

I would not want to acquire and restructure on a 31 y.o. WR. That just creates future cap problems with dead money.

I’m not a big fan of trading for Hopkins. He will be 31 before the season starts, has recently been injured, and was suspended for failing a PED test not long ago. It’s one thing to acquire an aging star, but his salary and (presumably) cap hit are very high for him. I would not want to exacerbate the Bills’ tight cap situation with an aging star. Hopkins salary for 2023 is almost $20M. If they are willing to take a big cap number on, it should be for someone younger (IMHO).

1. Spencer Brown might still prove to be a decent starter if his back is healthy. 2. That there is a big difference in quality of player you can expect when you are drafting late in every round vs early. Not all picks in a given round are equal. 2a. Disagree that only bad GMs don’t find Pro Bowl players in round 1 or fail on occasion to find starters in 2nd and 3rd rounds. 3. Devin Singletary was a good(not great) player here. 4. While Gabe Davis didn’t play well last year, there is a chance that it was partially because of a lingering ankle injury- he might or might not play better next year. 5. Tremaine Edmunds was very underrated by some here.

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He might - and I’m not sure I would love the Bills to take him. Some have raised significant concern about drops and him being a body-catcher. Josh Allen’s fastball hitting Johnston in the chest and bouncing away could be maddening after watching too many drops by Bills’ receivers last year.

True, but if NFL teams thought they were that good, they would go pretty early round 1.

I think “studs” is overstating it. Both are good prospects, but not slam dunks. I’d venture to guess that Campbell is the safer pick of the two, but nobody should think either is another Luke Keuchly.

I really would not strongly consider another very undersized DT. Teams keep chasing the next John Randle and Aaron Donald, but there aren’t many of those. If a 6’1” 280lb DT isn’t a great pass rusher in the NFL, he usually becomes a liability.

I don’t think that we should draw that conclusion from Beane’s public remarks about Brown. They can’t afford a good FA T, so no move there, but it is possible that they want to draft one to at least compete with Brown.

Well thought out post. I can’t quibble with much that you said. The 3 big problems they face are lacking cap space to bring in a significant FA LB, the draft isn’t terribly strong and they pick late in each round. Finding a good boundary Receiver is going to be tough in this class. If they want a real challenger for Davis, I think they have to hope that Jordan Addison lasts until their pick. If they are looking OT in round 1, they have to hope that Wright is there or be willing to take a chance on Dawand Jones who could be good, but I think his floor is really low. After those, I think you’d be looking at Cody Mauch, who can and might have to play G, Matt Bergeron who probably goes by mid 2nd or possibly Jaelyn Duncan who seems not to be in favor. I just hope that they can get at least two eventual decent to good starters and a few backup/rotational contributors.

Is he too tall to get leverage against 6’2” 330lb DTs? I know he is highly regarded and Wisconsin produces some good OL… Is Tippman a better bet than Mauch who probably could be a good OG if he can’t make it at OT or if Brown shows he can?