OldTimer1960

So, adding those two guarantees they will be better than every other team and guarantee a Super Bowl? I don’t. Problem 1: injury- if Allen or Diggs goes down, no Super Bowl. Problem 2: what if KC or Cincinnati or someone else outscores them? Quite possible, even with those two additions. Even if they magically got Justin Jefferson, is Diggs/Jefferson clearly better than Hill/Waddle in Miami or the Bengals WRs or the Eagles WRs? Of course, I can’t say that those in the “all in - future cap problems be damned camp” are wrong. I just would rather have a consistently competitive team - something that is possible with Josh Allen under contract - than have to reset the roster in a year or two and waste 2-3 years of Allen’s career rebuilding. I believe that being consistently in the mix will maximize their chances of winning a Super Bowl as compared with “all in for a year, then rebuild”.

Yes, that’s true. Players for the most part are happy to restructure and get money sooner. Hopkins is 31 y.o. And has 2 years remaining on his contract at (roughly) $20M for 2023 and $15M for 2024 when he will be 32 y.o. Most restructured contracts add time on the backend of the contract and pay a big chunk up front to be amortized over the remaining years on the contract. For example, Bills could add 2 years to Hopkins contract at basically $0/ year and pay him the total $35M now as a signing bonus. That would allow them to take a cap hit of $35/4 = $8.75M per year for 2023-2026. Sounds great, but if Hopkins play falls on due to injury or age or he decides to retire after 2024 - the Bills would have to eat $15M of dead cap in 2025. i expect this will happen with Von Miler at some point - he isn’t going to play the length of his contract and the Bills will have to weather that dead cap hit.

My view is that “adding Hopkins (or any other 1 or 2 players) in no way guarantees you a SB next year. Last year’s Bills team was good enough to win it all, injuries derailed that and other teams are damn good, too. Forget the cap for a minute and tell me which two players, if they were magically acquired, would guarantee a Super Bowl win next year?

Signing bonus does kick can down the road. Convert his $20M salary to a bonus allows you to spread the cap hit over the length of the remaining contract, but if he retires before end of contract, the unamortized portion hits immediately.

I would not want to acquire and restructure on a 31 y.o. WR. That just creates future cap problems with dead money.

I’m not a big fan of trading for Hopkins. He will be 31 before the season starts, has recently been injured, and was suspended for failing a PED test not long ago. It’s one thing to acquire an aging star, but his salary and (presumably) cap hit are very high for him. I would not want to exacerbate the Bills’ tight cap situation with an aging star. Hopkins salary for 2023 is almost $20M. If they are willing to take a big cap number on, it should be for someone younger (IMHO).

1. Spencer Brown might still prove to be a decent starter if his back is healthy. 2. That there is a big difference in quality of player you can expect when you are drafting late in every round vs early. Not all picks in a given round are equal. 2a. Disagree that only bad GMs don’t find Pro Bowl players in round 1 or fail on occasion to find starters in 2nd and 3rd rounds. 3. Devin Singletary was a good(not great) player here. 4. While Gabe Davis didn’t play well last year, there is a chance that it was partially because of a lingering ankle injury- he might or might not play better next year. 5. Tremaine Edmunds was very underrated by some here.

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He might - and I’m not sure I would love the Bills to take him. Some have raised significant concern about drops and him being a body-catcher. Josh Allen’s fastball hitting Johnston in the chest and bouncing away could be maddening after watching too many drops by Bills’ receivers last year.

True, but if NFL teams thought they were that good, they would go pretty early round 1.

I think “studs” is overstating it. Both are good prospects, but not slam dunks. I’d venture to guess that Campbell is the safer pick of the two, but nobody should think either is another Luke Keuchly.

I really would not strongly consider another very undersized DT. Teams keep chasing the next John Randle and Aaron Donald, but there aren’t many of those. If a 6’1” 280lb DT isn’t a great pass rusher in the NFL, he usually becomes a liability.

I don’t think that we should draw that conclusion from Beane’s public remarks about Brown. They can’t afford a good FA T, so no move there, but it is possible that they want to draft one to at least compete with Brown.

Well thought out post. I can’t quibble with much that you said. The 3 big problems they face are lacking cap space to bring in a significant FA LB, the draft isn’t terribly strong and they pick late in each round. Finding a good boundary Receiver is going to be tough in this class. If they want a real challenger for Davis, I think they have to hope that Jordan Addison lasts until their pick. If they are looking OT in round 1, they have to hope that Wright is there or be willing to take a chance on Dawand Jones who could be good, but I think his floor is really low. After those, I think you’d be looking at Cody Mauch, who can and might have to play G, Matt Bergeron who probably goes by mid 2nd or possibly Jaelyn Duncan who seems not to be in favor. I just hope that they can get at least two eventual decent to good starters and a few backup/rotational contributors.

Is he too tall to get leverage against 6’2” 330lb DTs? I know he is highly regarded and Wisconsin produces some good OL… Is Tippman a better bet than Mauch who probably could be a good OG if he can’t make it at OT or if Brown shows he can?

Completely unfounded, my brother in Vegas says the rumor is Oliver, pick 27 and Bills’ 4th to Bears for pick 9. I have no opinion on that other than if they already know his salary demands for next year and won’t pay it, then trade makes some sense. I *think* that would free up $10M in cap possibly allowing them to sign a FA LB.

I think the idea that they see Davis as a WR2 is overblown. Really, what would you expect Beane to say publicly? He can’t really come out and say “well, we would rather have a better WR2 than Gabe, he wasn’t very good last year”. If they take a WR in the first, that will tell you that they want to upgrade there, but if they don’t take a WR early, that may still not mean that they are thrilled with Davis - it could mean that they had other priorities to address and that they didn’t like the available WRs as much as they guys that they picked. Who, that will be available should they pick to challenge Davis?

I speculate that the high price of FA contracts drives the second contract with a different team theme. Most tams would be happy to keep a solid starter or even good backup after their rookie contract, the limited supply of FA compared voracious appetites of teams with cap space drives prices up to the point that the drafting team has to make a financial decision. Many of the guys who sign elsewhere are decent players, but not at the price the market will bear. Couple that with the reality that several teams each year have limited cap room.

I think lumping all OL together might inflate the success rate some as some guys drafted as T fail there then move to G. Note that the criteria for success was consistent starter, not “Pro Bowler”.

I’m not sure that I would be excited with any of them in the first, but then I don’t think there is going to be anyone at any position by pick 27 that isn’t a compromise selection in some way. They have to pick someone or trade the pick for a player or later picks. Whomever they pick, expectation should be solid starter, not future All Pro. I’m leaning towards high floor guys rather than swinging for the boom or bust type.

Thank you and this is excellent. It should be a reminder (or new information) to those that are outraged that the Bills didn’t get a starter with their late 2nd round picks…. It is hard to find NFL starters, even first rounders are not guarantees. Once you get into the 3rd, you are doing well to find a good starter. This should be eye-opening to those who think that draft misses are unique to the Bills.

Basically, if they want a decent G, they will have to take Torrence or Avila late first or trade down into top third of 2nd. I think that there will be some OTs drafted and moved to G like Mauch and maybe Bergeron, among others. I don’t know that the C like Schmitz and Wypler could easily move to G, but maybe Tippman can.

I’m not saying that any of Harty, Sherfield and Shakir are so established that they couldn’t find someone in the draft who is better - and I really like JSN, Flowers and Downs - but with plenty odd needs on OL, LB, S, and maybe DT and DE, it seems like a better plan to address those needs, including a WR who can play out wide (with at least average size to do so). I would not be upset if they added any of JSN, Flowers and Downs.

With the signing of Harty, I think he is the small WR that they will roll with. I would be surprised if they took Dell in the draft unless he lasted into the middle rounds, say round 4 or later. He is just so small and I think they've plenty well addressed the slot at this point with Shakir, Harty and now Sherfield.

I guess Scott or Jayden Reed are decent consolation prizes. They are both pretty fast, but with slightly less than ideal size.