OldTimer1960

I hear you, but even good backups who play 30-40% of snaps have value. Yes, starters are more valuable, but good rotational players or decent backups do have value beyond special teams. It is a down year for OGs and OK for C, but maybe a 4th rounder on a C to maybe replace the expensive and aging Morse would be helpful. i don’t think it’s impossible to believe that a 4th round WR could see playing time. I liked what I saw of Shakir, but neither he nor Harty are sure things. I am not opposed to the idea of a trade up, but in this class you will want to be extra sure of who you are moving up for.

This is a very recent article that says what I suggested (future draft picks discounted roughly by a round per year they are in the future) Of course, it isn’t a hard and fast rule, more a rule of thumb. Every deal is different, I acknowledge that. https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/01/09/colts-2023-nfl-draft-what-will-it-cost-the-colts-to-move-up/69788880007/

True, but they are now in a scenario where they are going to need to replace some high priced players who are getting older because of cap constraints, so I think they will need more young cheap players.

But can he catch well enough for his size and jumping ability to matter? Maybe, maybe not. He is a gamble hoping to find greatness for sure. I’m hoping for a higher floor than what I think Johnston has, but I won’t say others are wrong to want to take a chance on him. I would take it, if they could get that deal, but a pick in next year’s draft Is usually valued as 1 round later, so next year’s likely late 3rd would be valued in trad this year as likely late 4th. That might move you up 5is spots in the 2nd.

Almost every company wants to be number 1 in sales and profit, all movies want to be tops in revenue and win awards, most musicians want to win a grammy…. That does not mean that falling short of the top spot is a total failure and, specifically for the Bills, it doesn’t mean that they aren’t already talented enough to win a Super Bowl next year. I’ not saying that these numbers are exact, but let’s say that a team is so good that they have a 60% probability to win against any other team in the playoffs- that’s pretty good right there. A team that has a first round bye needs to win 3 straight playoff games to be champs. Assuming that 60% probability in each game is reasonably accurate, then that team has a .6 x .6 x .6 = about a 22% chance of doing so. If that team had to play a wild card game, it works out to be about a 13% chance of winning 4 in a row against the best teams in the league. You can quibble with the numbers a little, but my point is that it is very hard and requires some luck to win 3 or 4 in a row against the best competition in the world.

Completely aligned.

I was talking about the whole season, not just the Bengals’ game. This team overcame a TON of adversity last season - then they went through Hamlin’s heart stopping on the field. If people don’t think that affected the team, then I strongly disagree.

I think Wright will be fine at RT - he did play heads up on some great players against Ga and he went against Bryan Bresee a lot vs Clemson. Now, nobody is going to mistake Bresee for Von Miller in his prime, but he will likely go in the first round this year.

Forgot “secondary was decimated by injuries - White, Hyde, Poyer playing injured, Hamlin, Benford missed time and I think Jackson missed time(but could be wrong on that one.

That makes sense. There are a lot of players that could go in the last 10ish picks of round 1 - none of which I think anyone would be super excited about.

Matthew Bergeron Jonathan Mingo

Excellent point, in the draft fervor, I forgot that any slot receiver would have to have a higher upside than Shakir/Harty. For that reason, I don’t see WR as much option in round 1 unless Johnston is there and I’m not crazy about him.

Thanks. What do you think of a later pick who is much bigger for a slot in Parker Washington? He is interesting to me maybe late 3rd or maybe 4th? He just looks like an athlete to me, though not as fast or quick, but can probably block at a pretty high level from the slot.

He is small. Do you have the same concerns with Josh Downs and Tank Dell? I am worried about their size as well.

Brown did have back problems that destroyed his training last offseason. I would not give up on him yet, either. That doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t be willing to draft an OT high to compete with him - if a good one is available at one of their picks. There are other spots to address and they had little cap room and only a few draft picks (all late in the rounds) to work with.

Many thanks! Dean is also smart - academic all-conference every year, but is he too slow? I am not one who obsesses about 40 times, but I think he ran 4.75 at the Combine. I saw that PFF is touting Zavala recently, too. I have not watched any game tape on him, but read that he missed a year with back surgery- that seems like a big red flag, but team Docs will check that. I’m starting to set Carter Warren’s name as an OT who some say could go day 2. Have you watched him?

I don’t know about Branch being a fit here. I think he is good, but from everything I’ve read he is basically a slot corner with pretty good size for that position, excellent instincts and tackling skills. He might be better than Taron Johnson, but Johnson is pretty good, himself. Would Branch be as good playing a safety role as the Bills play it?

I agree with all of this, especially the point about the media not knowing how each team is grading/slotting the prospects. I wish I was a scout, but I’m not. I read as much as I can about the prospects and I watch a little game tape - not nearly as much as the top draft guys here, but I’m watching as a long-time fan and I don’t know the technical aspects of each position. With the caveat that I know the actual scouts have done a lot more work on these prospects than the media, I am just not seeing any receivers in this draft that I think are going to really become outstanding NFL players. I like Flowers, Addison and Downs and I believe they will be good, not great players - all undersized, but with quickness, route running, and good hands. I am not sold on Johnston and after that, the rest just seem like consolation prizes. A few of those consolation prizes might turn into decent starters or good non-starting contributors, but which ones? Hyatt at least has speed and solid hands, but can he be more than an occasional deep threat?

Wright - I saw him play very well vs Ga and against Clemson Bryan Bresee played a lot of 3-4 DE going 1-1 with Wright and Wright really handled him very well.

And, importantly, it was before the salary cap and FA as we know it today. And, I think, with better pass protection from the OL, we could see Cook deployed in the passing game - that is what I really think they drafted him for.

For sure, I would not spend a first round pick on a TE expecting to move him to RT. Only way you take Darnell Washington in the first is if you KNOW he is a dynamite blocker and can live with 30ish catches a year from him - that is probably his floor. That would not warrant a second contract. If you are betting on his upside as a receiver and counting on his blocking, then *maybe* you can consider him round 1. I see the athletic skills, but he still looks awkward as a receiver.

This is where I would Lean conservative this year. Find a few guys with high floors who are pretty likely to be decent starters and then similar for decent backups later. I think a swing for the fence and coming up empty puts them behind the teams they are competing against. I may be too conservative here, but I think it’s warranted in this draft.

You may be right, but I can’t think of any top WRs in the league who have questionable hands. I’m not saying that I am absolutely right, but man that scares me.

I think Johnston could be there at 27 and I would have to consider other positions and players available before I took Johnston. My main concerns are the comments about too many drops and not being great at contested catches, despite his size. Secondarily, he ran 4.5 at his pro day - that’s fine, but doesn’t offer the super athlete to counter the questions about his hands.

True and I like Flowers, Downs and a few others. I like Parker Washington 3rd/4th.