OldTimer1960

Completely unfounded, my brother in Vegas says the rumor is Oliver, pick 27 and Bills’ 4th to Bears for pick 9. I have no opinion on that other than if they already know his salary demands for next year and won’t pay it, then trade makes some sense. I *think* that would free up $10M in cap possibly allowing them to sign a FA LB.

I think the idea that they see Davis as a WR2 is overblown. Really, what would you expect Beane to say publicly? He can’t really come out and say “well, we would rather have a better WR2 than Gabe, he wasn’t very good last year”. If they take a WR in the first, that will tell you that they want to upgrade there, but if they don’t take a WR early, that may still not mean that they are thrilled with Davis - it could mean that they had other priorities to address and that they didn’t like the available WRs as much as they guys that they picked. Who, that will be available should they pick to challenge Davis?

I speculate that the high price of FA contracts drives the second contract with a different team theme. Most tams would be happy to keep a solid starter or even good backup after their rookie contract, the limited supply of FA compared voracious appetites of teams with cap space drives prices up to the point that the drafting team has to make a financial decision. Many of the guys who sign elsewhere are decent players, but not at the price the market will bear. Couple that with the reality that several teams each year have limited cap room.

I think lumping all OL together might inflate the success rate some as some guys drafted as T fail there then move to G. Note that the criteria for success was consistent starter, not “Pro Bowler”.

I’m not sure that I would be excited with any of them in the first, but then I don’t think there is going to be anyone at any position by pick 27 that isn’t a compromise selection in some way. They have to pick someone or trade the pick for a player or later picks. Whomever they pick, expectation should be solid starter, not future All Pro. I’m leaning towards high floor guys rather than swinging for the boom or bust type.

Thank you and this is excellent. It should be a reminder (or new information) to those that are outraged that the Bills didn’t get a starter with their late 2nd round picks…. It is hard to find NFL starters, even first rounders are not guarantees. Once you get into the 3rd, you are doing well to find a good starter. This should be eye-opening to those who think that draft misses are unique to the Bills.

Basically, if they want a decent G, they will have to take Torrence or Avila late first or trade down into top third of 2nd. I think that there will be some OTs drafted and moved to G like Mauch and maybe Bergeron, among others. I don’t know that the C like Schmitz and Wypler could easily move to G, but maybe Tippman can.

I’m not saying that any of Harty, Sherfield and Shakir are so established that they couldn’t find someone in the draft who is better - and I really like JSN, Flowers and Downs - but with plenty odd needs on OL, LB, S, and maybe DT and DE, it seems like a better plan to address those needs, including a WR who can play out wide (with at least average size to do so). I would not be upset if they added any of JSN, Flowers and Downs.

With the signing of Harty, I think he is the small WR that they will roll with. I would be surprised if they took Dell in the draft unless he lasted into the middle rounds, say round 4 or later. He is just so small and I think they've plenty well addressed the slot at this point with Shakir, Harty and now Sherfield.

I guess Scott or Jayden Reed are decent consolation prizes. They are both pretty fast, but with slightly less than ideal size.

That is interesting and encouraging. Bills expect their WR to block on run plays. He is certainly big enough to do it.

I think you are right, if you want a WR in this draft, that will be what you have to do. I’m right there with you on Rice - level of competition and then invisible at Senior Bowl are both concerns. I like Tillman’s hands and size, hope he can get open v. NFL DBs. Brings me back to TE question - I know Kincaid won’t be a strong blocker, but isn’t he already a better receiver than most WRs in this draft?

I’m guessing just a guy to bring to camp. Maybe he makes the team, maybe not. I’m going to bet they tell us he is a great ST player.

Do you think the Bills’ feel that they’re set in the slot with Shakir and Harty? If yes, then would you still consider Flowers and Downs? I think they are both better than Shakir/Harty, but how many slot guys are needed? I worry about Johnston because of drops/body catching. That isn’t a good pairing with Allen’s rocket arm, but if people are convinced that his hands are better than advertised, for sure he is intriguing. Do you see Tillman as having the juice to separate in the league? I worry about that with him and also with Rice, in spite of his athletic tests at the combine. I like Rice better than what I’ve seen of Tillman, but to me they both don’t seem to have the great ability to shake man coverage.

I think so, too.

Hi Gunner, do you think any of those guys will make it to pick 59? My guess is no, but I would not argue vehemently if someone said they will.

If they want an OT, think they’ll have to get him in round 1. I don’t think much will be left by pick 59. I think a guy like Mauch could be considered and give him a shot to play OT, but he probably ends up at G. Mauch also might need time to adjust from Northern Iowa opponents to the NFL, so he might not be ready to start right away. I could see them liking Dawand Jones, but he is RT only and risky because he will need to use his length to makeup for subpar quickness. If OL is the plan (and it should be), maybe best to try to trade out of first somewhere into top 10 of 2nd. I like Bergeron, Mauch, Avila, Wypler, maybe Schmitz (he is pretty old), but not especially in the first.

Interesting draft. I think with Shakir and recently signed Hardy that they are ok for slot WR and I worry that Flowers’ size might preclude hike from playing out wide, but I do think Flowers is good.

Who are locks depends on whom they may draft, still sign as FA or UDFA. I would not say that Doyle, Boettger or even Bates are lead-pipe cinches to make the team.

I don't disagree, I may be in the minority, but I still hold out hope that Spencer Brown will look significantly better next year after a (hopefully) healthy offseason where he can weight train, practice his position specific skills, etc. If I viewed Brown as a "no-hope" player, I would be arguing that adding a RT in the first is equally important to adding playmakers in the run and pass game. My view is also biased in that I don't think that any of the WRs, other than Addison, would be worth picking/good matches for the Bills. When you pass on nearly 70% of your plays, pass blocking becomes quite important - at least in my view.

See the thing is, if we believe in "positional value" (and I do, but not as an absolute), then the only positions worthy of a 1st round pick are QB, WR, LT, Edge rusher and CB. But, what if you either don't need those positions or there isn't a good player at those positions when you pick comes? For sure, if there are equivalent players at a number of positions and you have needs at those positions, then by all means draft one of the highest value positions. On the flip side, if neither of the above are true, then you are left with either forcing a pick on a player that you either don't need or one who isn't as good as the players available at other positions. I think there have to be scenarios where you could draft a "lesser position" and have it make sense. Indeed, every year some teams do just that and I don't think that every team that drafts a lesser position in round 1 is "just stupid".

Exactly, helping the pass blocking gives receivers a bit more time to get open and Allen a bit more time to find them. Helping run blocking forces defenses to respect the run more which will make it easier for receivers to get open, slow down the pass rush, etc. Offense is a system, you can improve the whole thing by making improvements in certain areas.

I dunno, Chicago just paid $18M/year for Edmunds and his lack of instincts. Edmunds was very young when he came into the league (20). Heck Edmunds is just 25 now after 5 yes in the league- there are guys in this draft that are 24 as rookies (John Michael Schmitz, for example).

I think you consider it, if the draft pick could also play OG if Spencer Brown plays well. I don’t think you could realistically move Brown inside, but some of the OTs could move inside - like Mauch.

Who do you like that could realistically be available at WR? I think in round 1 only Addison - Flowers and Downs are good, but slot only guys (or at least I think so) and I think between Shakir and Harty the Bills’ think they have enough there. Quentin Johnston’s questionable hands might let him slide to Bills, but guys who body catch are not a good mix with Allen’s fastball. I guess I could understand if they took Jalen Hyatt. Late in round 2, I don’t think I will be enamored with anyone who will likely be there. Late round 3 might find some value lining up with the pick, but are you going to find anyone as good as Davis that late in this class?