OldTimer1960

I don’t think Avila will be there at pick 59. All the WRs are compromises. I could see Flowers or Downs helping in the slot, love they’re quick, but so small. I would understand if they took Hyatt, but he is slightly built and is he a one-trick pony? JSN will be a very good slot receiver- if he stays healthy and I would not touch Quentin Johnston- his hands and not-so-great contested catch ability are a big red flag for me. None of the above are what people think of as great value for round 1 in most years. I can’t find any player who’s likely to be available at pick 27 that they “gotta have”.

I don’t think he’ll be there late in round 2 where Bills pick. Think they would need to trade up for him in round 2, but I think they would have to pass on prospects at more important positions if they took him in round 1.

Offensive playmakers are in short supply in round 1 of this draft. FWIW, Pat Kirwan thinks only 2WRs will go in round 1. I’m hoping for a good OT who can slide to G in the case that Spencer Brown improves. I could be on board for Dalton Kincaid as the playmaker. Not crazy about Bijon Robinson in round 1, but I could at least understand if the went that way.

I’m not sure that he was drafted to be Edmunds’ replacement. I think he was drafted to play a role similar to Milano’s. If they really did draft him to be Edmunds’ replacement, it is an even bigger head-scratcher than it already appeared to be.

My only point there was that Edmunds isn’t anywhere as bad as many here think. He was very young when drafted and still played well. Was he Bruce Smith of LBs? No, of course not, but he was a quality starting LB and I believe we will miss him in pass defense this year. People will say that Poyer and Hyde are declining, but missing that huge agile presence in the middle zone will be the problem.

And that guy is now making $18M/year. Are you sure you are right on this?

I would argue that his rookie year won’t be a peak year as he would be learning a new position and trying to put on enough muscle to get on the field. If the Bills were a 3-4 base defense, it would be a similar issue with McDonald needing to learn how to play off ball and in coverage. Add in that in both scenarios, you don’t know for sure how good he will be in new role and with more weight. Regarding 2nd contracts, I think that depends on where a given team is. If a team has a bonafide star QB taking up a huge chunk of the cap (or young QB about to be), it will be hard to sign anyone to a second contract. On the flip side, if you have a a good young QB on a rookie deal or don’t have an answer at QB, then easier to sign 2nd contracts with your draftees.

That would be a pretty nice draft!

McDonald is fast, very undersized and a pretty old player to be a rookie. McDonald is one year younger than Tremaine Edmunds and Edmunds already has 5 years NFL experience. That doesn’t disqualify McDonald or mean that he can’t be good, but factor in that he probably needs a year to learn a newish position and bulk up (then you don’t know for sure he won’t lose critical speed) and that he will be 29 when his rookie contract is up and I would be hesitant to do this.

I think Downs, Flowers or even Dell would eventually beat out Shakir. I’m not dogging Shakir, I just think those three are a bit better.

I would not move up for Campbell. I could consider taking him at 27, but if he isn’t there happily take a player at another position. I think Campbell will be a good pro and I know the cupboard looks bare now, but I think there will be better players available at pick 27- or I hope so.

I just don’t see a way to fit Hopkins’ $19M cap hit under our cap (and $14.5M next year). I wouldn’t want to extend his contract far enough to lower the cap hit for next two years by much - he is turning 30, was recently injured and suspended for steroid use. The steroids, in particular, may be a sign he is breaking down.

I think slot receiver is a place a rookie has a chance to play or even start. I agree that there probably isn’t an outside guy who could beat out Gabe Davis, but there is room fo a rookie there to play some behind Davis. Have to ask why Denver wants to dump Jeudy with two years left on rookie contract. There must be a reason.

I sort of have the feeling Oliver will be traded, too. I’m not sure how I feel about that, either. I think Oliver has been good, not great, so far and if they have already determined that they don’t want to pay him after next season then, I can understand why they might move him.

I agree that he is an outstanding RB prospect. If they draft him, do you think he would get more than 15 touches a game and will they be productive behind an as-yet modest OL? As much as I think Robinson could have a big impact, I’m not sure they would alter the offense enough to take advantage of his talent and I don’t think they are a top run blocking unit.

I hear you, but even good backups who play 30-40% of snaps have value. Yes, starters are more valuable, but good rotational players or decent backups do have value beyond special teams. It is a down year for OGs and OK for C, but maybe a 4th rounder on a C to maybe replace the expensive and aging Morse would be helpful. i don’t think it’s impossible to believe that a 4th round WR could see playing time. I liked what I saw of Shakir, but neither he nor Harty are sure things. I am not opposed to the idea of a trade up, but in this class you will want to be extra sure of who you are moving up for.

This is a very recent article that says what I suggested (future draft picks discounted roughly by a round per year they are in the future) Of course, it isn’t a hard and fast rule, more a rule of thumb. Every deal is different, I acknowledge that. https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/01/09/colts-2023-nfl-draft-what-will-it-cost-the-colts-to-move-up/69788880007/

True, but they are now in a scenario where they are going to need to replace some high priced players who are getting older because of cap constraints, so I think they will need more young cheap players.

But can he catch well enough for his size and jumping ability to matter? Maybe, maybe not. He is a gamble hoping to find greatness for sure. I’m hoping for a higher floor than what I think Johnston has, but I won’t say others are wrong to want to take a chance on him. I would take it, if they could get that deal, but a pick in next year’s draft Is usually valued as 1 round later, so next year’s likely late 3rd would be valued in trad this year as likely late 4th. That might move you up 5is spots in the 2nd.

Almost every company wants to be number 1 in sales and profit, all movies want to be tops in revenue and win awards, most musicians want to win a grammy…. That does not mean that falling short of the top spot is a total failure and, specifically for the Bills, it doesn’t mean that they aren’t already talented enough to win a Super Bowl next year. I’ not saying that these numbers are exact, but let’s say that a team is so good that they have a 60% probability to win against any other team in the playoffs- that’s pretty good right there. A team that has a first round bye needs to win 3 straight playoff games to be champs. Assuming that 60% probability in each game is reasonably accurate, then that team has a .6 x .6 x .6 = about a 22% chance of doing so. If that team had to play a wild card game, it works out to be about a 13% chance of winning 4 in a row against the best teams in the league. You can quibble with the numbers a little, but my point is that it is very hard and requires some luck to win 3 or 4 in a row against the best competition in the world.

Completely aligned.

I was talking about the whole season, not just the Bengals’ game. This team overcame a TON of adversity last season - then they went through Hamlin’s heart stopping on the field. If people don’t think that affected the team, then I strongly disagree.

I think Wright will be fine at RT - he did play heads up on some great players against Ga and he went against Bryan Bresee a lot vs Clemson. Now, nobody is going to mistake Bresee for Von Miller in his prime, but he will likely go in the first round this year.

Forgot “secondary was decimated by injuries - White, Hyde, Poyer playing injured, Hamlin, Benford missed time and I think Jackson missed time(but could be wrong on that one.

That makes sense. There are a lot of players that could go in the last 10ish picks of round 1 - none of which I think anyone would be super excited about.